Notes for 2012

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

Some notes for 2012.

 

- Laurent Robinson is GOOD and probably the least risk out of the 3 Cowboy WRs. Should be a STEAL after round 6.

- P. Harvin has officially arrived.

- Again, AVOID the JAX brothers (VJAX & DJAX). Notorious for putting up 2-3 big games and nothing the rest of the year.

- Heyward-Bey is showing signs that he can be a solid WR in this league.

- There's plenty of love for TE in New England. You can get a real value pick in Hernandez in the later rounds.

- In a league with 6 points for QB, Rodgers & Brees belong in the top 5 picks.

- When healthy, Malcom Floyd seems to be the engine that keeps the Chargers offense going.

- QB is deep next year after the big 2 (Rodgers & Brees) goes off the board. Brady, Newton, Stafford, Vick, Peyton, Eli, Rivers, Romo, Ryan.

[kmbryant09 1]

Severe dropoff in Running Backs:

 

Ray Rice

LeSean McCoy

Arian Foster

 

Matt Forte

Maurice JonesDrew

Chris Johnson

Ryan Mathews

Michael Turner

Frank Gore

 

Marshawn Lynch

Steven Jackson

Shonn Greene

Reggie Bush?

 

Then there are the injured guys: Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, Darren McFadden, DeMarco Murray - not exactly sure where they fit in.

 

But if I have a top 3 pick, as tempting as Rodgers would be, I'm grabbing Rice/McCoy/Foster, and coming back with Brady/Stafford/Newton/Eli.

[kmbryant09 1]

Also, with the league becoming more of a pass-happy league, so many WR's have become reliable:

 

Calvin Johnson

Wes Welker

Larry Fitzgerald

Victor Cruz

Jordy Nelson

Greg Jennings

Hakeem Nicks

Mike Wallace

Roddy White

Marques Colston

Andre Johnson (when healthy)

 

All of those guys are reliable, #1 WR's. Or at least they were last year.

 

Also, so many young, upcoming talents:

 

Dez Bryant

A.J. Green

Julio Jones

Antonio Brown

Pierre Garcon (if Manning is back and Wayne leaves)

Torrey Smith

Demaryius Thomas

Michael Crabtree

DHB/D. Moore

James Jones

 

Obviously some of those guys produced on different levels this season, but there's a ton of depth and upside at the WR position.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I would like to say that you can definately wait on getting receivers next year. Lool at the catch totals for the top receivers. Welker had over 100 and then roddy hit 100 exactly. I think thats about it for 100 reception receivers.

 

The need for an elite wr on your team has diminished greatly. I also dont remember so many #2 wr having better stats than the #1 wr. Beaides a few elite you can get real value on the #2 that can put up good stats like:

 

Titus young

Cruz

Julio jones

Nelson

Hernandez (good chance he has better stats than gronk next year. Dude is a physical freak)

Antonio brown

Floyd

 

Im sure im missing some but this year was the year of the number 2's and im guessing that trend isnt going away.

[Larry David 20]

Julio Jones is definitely top 15 next year and maybe even top 10.

 

I've been Michael Turner's biggest supporter in recent years. Many were calling him washed up prior to the 2010 season and a lot more were saying it before this season. My argument was that you can't just look at his age and decide that he's hit the wall since he didn't become a starter until he was 26. That being said, I don't think I'm going to protect him next year. The end is finally near. I don't see him as a top 15 back next year.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Good analysis. I agree with almost all of the OP's points, except for Bey-Bey.

 

I'm still not sure we have a read on Oakalnds WR situation. Moore, Ford, Bey-Bey, Louis Murphy?

 

Also a lot of their value is dependent upon an aging Palmer. As a gamble WR 4 sure but I can't in confidence rank any of them higher until I have a read.

[shovelheadt 62]

The Bengals are going to be huge players in the draft next year. They need secondary help bad, guards and possibly another WR. Upgrading the RB position wouldn't piss me off either.

 

- 2 first round picks (1 from the Palmer trade

- 2 3rd round picks (I'm assuming they'll get a 3rd for Jonathan Joseph leaving)

- 2 5th round picks (1 from the Ochostinko trade)

 

They also have another 2nd rounder and 6th rounder available in the 2013 draft, from the same 2 trades.

[bonkbonk 5]

Its been mentioned a few times in several threads.

 

The importance of selling high and to some extent buying low.

 

Next year i am moving hard on this practice.

 

To many good examples this year to go over, but very few players were able to produce at a high lvl from start to finish.

[jgcrawfish 232]

Note: I ain't touching Frank Gore. Addendum to my draft rules: Stay away from old/overused RB's.

[mgs316 14]

My thought process for next year: grab 4 solid RB's with upside, get a top flight TE, top flight kicker (pure luck) and an elite QB. Roll the dice on WR's, I basically got nothing from Wallace and and to a lesser extent Nicks for the second half of the season (slightly TD weighted league vs yards) and didn't miss a beat. K, QB, RB, TE can get you consistent points, WR's are just random point explosions from year to year. F-ing divas.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

My thought process for next year: grab 4 solid RB's with upside, get a top flight TE, top flight kicker (pure luck) and an elite QB. Roll the dice on WR's, I basically got nothing from Wallace and and to a lesser extent Nicks for the second half of the season (slightly TD weighted league vs yards) and didn't miss a beat. K, QB, RB, TE can get you consistent points, WR's are just random point explosions from year to year. F-ing divas.

 

Agree. Avoid the WR until later in the draft. It's easier to work the waivers and get a good fill in for the WR positions.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

Note: I ain't touching Frank Gore. Addendum to my draft rules: Stay away from old/overused RB's.

Yeah. No Steven Jackson or Michael Turner either. Plus there are a lot of RB's coming off major injuries. Peterson, Charles, Fred Jackson, Forte (not too major), McFadden, Mendenhall.

 

Not sure what I like next year at RB to be honest. Rice, McCoy, and Foster can be game breakers but that is only 3 guys I'd take and they'll be top 5 picks in drafts. Then maybe MJD but after that it's a crapshoot.

 

Don't like RB for next year, want a stud QB next year, and WR is deeeeeeep.

[jgcrawfish 232]

Yeah. No Steven Jackson or Michael Turner either. Plus there are a lot of RB's coming off major injuries. Peterson, Charles, Fred Jackson, Forte (not too major), McFadden, Mendenhall.

 

Not sure what I like next year at RB to be honest. Rice, McCoy, and Foster can be game breakers but that is only 3 guys I'd take and they'll be top 5 picks in drafts. Then maybe MJD but after that it's a crapshoot.

 

Don't like RB for next year, want a stud QB next year, and WR is deeeeeeep.

 

I'll gamble later (if I can get them) on the guys that got injured early (Charles, Ryan Williams, Mikel Leshoure come to mind) but only at RB3 levels. I'll gamble on Forte since his injury was minor. Jackson would be an ok gamble, but Spiller really picked up his game late in the season. Those guys will have basically a full year to come back. McFadden is always an injury risk at this point, as is his backfield buddy in AR Felix Jones. Unless I'm sitting top 3 and getting one of the guys you mentioned, I'm likely to go WR early. I'll also be looking at TE earlier than I ever have based on the Graham/Gronk phenomena.

[murf74 461]

Mccoy will never score that many TDs next year. Tate will vulture a lot more from foster.

 

Must have Rodgers, Breed, Brady, Stafford, Newton if you really want to compete for title.

 

Do NOT draft Roddy, Jennings, Wallace, Nicks, and the likes. They have poor value for draft slot and their wr teammate will almost surely outscore them. In oitherwords do not draft a wr until rd 4 or 5.

 

At all costs draft graham, gronk and hernandez and you get huge advantage every week. 2nd round is not too early for these guys.

 

Dont reach in rb...instead draft 2nd and 3rd tier in bulk

 

I never structured position and rd but I can see

 

Qb

TE

RB

RB

[hoydogg 3]

What are your thoughts on TEs as keepers if you own Graham, Hernandez, or Gronk? My only wideout I'd consider keeping would be Bowe.

[sportsfreak2744 0]

Not fair to group VJAX with DJAX.

 

VJAX was #9 WR in standard scoring and was still in "must-start" territory for the whole season. I think Rivers dragged him down this year.

[sportsfreak2744 0]

Mccoy will never score that many TDs next year. Tate will vulture a lot more from foster.

 

Must have Rodgers, Breed, Brady, Stafford, Newton if you really want to compete for title.

 

Do NOT draft Roddy, Jennings, Wallace, Nicks, and the likes. They have poor value for draft slot and their wr teammate will almost surely outscore them. In oitherwords do not draft a wr until rd 4 or 5.

 

At all costs draft graham, gronk and hernandez and you get huge advantage every week. 2nd round is not too early for these guys.

 

Dont reach in rb...instead draft 2nd and 3rd tier in bulk

 

I never structured position and rd but I can see

 

Qb

TE

RB

RB

 

Jennings I can see avoiding or being hesitant because of the knee and Roddy with Julio there but otherwise Wallace is still getting better and Nicks is still very young and a stud. I'll confidently draft either.

[murf74 461]

Jennings I can see avoiding or being hesitant because of the knee and Roddy with Julio there but otherwise Wallace is still getting better and Nicks is still very young and a stud. I'll confidently draft either.

I mean draft them where they will go...no value I would wait a round and get Brown and Cruz who quietly have overtaken their teammates as their qbs favorite target

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

Mccoy will never score that many TDs next year. Tate will vulture a lot more from foster.

 

Must have Rodgers, Breed, Brady, Stafford, Newton if you really want to compete for title.

 

Do NOT draft Roddy, Jennings, Wallace, Nicks, and the likes. They have poor value for draft slot and their wr teammate will almost surely outscore them. In oitherwords do not draft a wr until rd 4 or 5.

 

At all costs draft graham, gronk and hernandez and you get huge advantage every week. 2nd round is not too early for these guys.

 

Dont reach in rb...instead draft 2nd and 3rd tier in bulk

 

I never structured position and rd but I can see

 

Qb

TE

RB

RB

Interesting. I completely agree with you on McCoy but why would Tate vulture more TD's from Foster?

 

I don't know that Newtton fits into the grouping you have him in. Those top 3 are well worth it, Stafford may be worth it, but Cam could regress (pretty nervous since I plan on keeping him).

 

I agree with taking Brown later than Wallace but I'm wondering if Nicks will actually be ranked all that much higher than Cruz. Is there a chance that Nicks could be the value?

 

Agree with most of what you said. QB's and TE's are worth high picks. RB's a crapshoot after maybe the first 4. Value later on WR's b/c there's so damn many of them.

[murf74 461]

Interesting. I completely agree with you on McCoy but why would Tate vulture more TD's from Foster?

 

I don't know that Newtton fits into the grouping you have him in. Those top 3 are well worth it, Stafford may be worth it, but Cam could regress (pretty nervous since I plan on keeping him).

 

I agree with taking Brown later than Wallace but I'm wondering if Nicks will actually be ranked all that much higher than Cruz. Is there a chance that Nicks could be the value?

 

Agree with most of what you said. QB's and TE's are worth high picks. RB's a crapshoot after maybe the first 4. Value later on WR's b/c there's so damn many of them.

 

Tate vulturing carries and series not necessarily TDs.

 

You could be right on Nicks if Cruz has good playoffs.

 

I owned Newton in one league and I loved the rushing pt consistency and would rank him at the end of that list but not tiered with them if that makes any sense

[stonewall 647]

Notes to self:

 

1. Be more quick and decisive when it comes to pulling the trigger on free agent gems.....Robinson, Cruz, etc. These moves win Championships. You can always drop them later if they don't pan out.

 

2. If I miss out on Gronk or Graham....take a late flier on Jared Cook. He didn't break out until late again, but has the skillz to be top flight.

 

3. Let everyone laugh when I draft a top-flight Defense. Well worth the investment....and I am sick of playing the weekly WW defense strategy.

 

4. Avoid all players names Jackon, except Fred.

 

5. A Tier one QB is essential in todays pass-crazy NFL.

 

6. Don't be afraid to draft rookie WR's if the value is there (Blackmon).

 

7. Despite Shanahan, draft Royster late. Kid has something.

 

8. If he falls far enough, draft Hillis. He will be forgotten by many drafters, but is still a capable Beast when healthy and used properly.

 

9. Take RG3 as an upside backup if he slips in the draft.

 

10. Avoid ALL good, but old/over-used RB's. Go with younger upside.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

Not fair to group VJAX with DJAX.

 

VJAX was #9 WR in standard scoring and was still in "must-start" territory for the whole season. I think Rivers dragged him down this year.

 

Homeboy have 10 weeks with less than 10 points in standard scoring.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Notes to self:

 

1. Be more quick and decisive when it comes to pulling the trigger on free agent gems.....Robinson, Cruz, etc. These moves win Championships. You can always drop them later if they don't pan out.

 

Thats easy to say except you dont know who are going to be gems. If everyone knew then they would be drafted. I thought mccluster might produce close to charles since he had the speed. After he turned out to be worthless i thought jackie battle had a chance to help my team. He was equally worthless.

 

Another thing you really need to be careful of is cutting a player too early. There are a lot of people who cut murray before felix went down and were kicking themselves every time they thought about it.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Thats easy to say except you dont know who are going to be gems. If everyone knew then they would be drafted. I thought mccluster might produce close to charles since he had the speed. After he turned out to be worthless i thought jackie battle had a chance to help my team. He was equally worthless.

 

Another thing you really need to be careful of is cutting a player too early. There are a lot of people who cut murray before felix went down and were kicking themselves every time they thought about it.

 

Yeah. I was smart enough to draft Jordy Nelson, A. Brown and E. Sanders but I couldn't hold onto all of them and dropped the first 2 after Sanders scored week 1.

 

As much as it hurt me holding onto my depth running backs, Tate, M. Bush and Tolbert payed huge dividends in the end as I flipped Tolbert for Cruz and M. Bush broke out.

 

In the end it was either a wash or a win but I hated seeing 'my guys' blow up elsewhere.

 

Such is fantasy though.