The Moz 69 Posted February 4, 2012 Just threw a grand on New England -- really something is up - Vegas is not in the losig business and they have basically kept the spread steady to get people to bet NYG in droves. My head says the NYG should win and easily but Vegas doesn't do this unless they know something we don't. Vrgas is basically on purpose wanting all the money on NYG. we will see Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kutulu 1,547 Posted February 4, 2012 I hope you lose. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MTSkiBum 1,594 Posted February 4, 2012 I put 300 on the patriots. How good could the Giants really be, they got manhandled by the Redskins twice. Losing by double digit points both times. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Recliner Pilot 61 Posted February 5, 2012 Vegas sets, and moves, the line to try to get the same amount bet on both teams. That way they win no matter what. It doesn't necessarily mean they think NE is a lock, just that they believe more people are leaning toward NE with their bets. HTH Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MTSkiBum 1,594 Posted February 5, 2012 Vegas sets, and moves, the line to try to get the same amount bet on both teams. That way they win no matter what. It doesn't necessarily mean they think NE is a lock, just that they believe more people are leaning toward NE with their bets. HTH You obviously do not bet pro football. If you did you would know that your entire post is false. 1. There are many games that 80-90% of the public is all betting on the same team. Very rarely is there an even split of the money on both teams. 2. Vegas rarely adjusts lines. 3. The public is betting on the giants. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Little Rusty 17 Posted February 5, 2012 It's all about the match-ups and momentum,.......bet responsibly I say the Giants win,...they've been VERY lucky for well over a month now Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
p00h 85 Posted February 5, 2012 53% of money is on giants, 47 on pats. At that clip, the bookies make money regardless of who wins. That's how it's done, especially on big games. During the season there are always bait games and such, but this game is too big and the action too large for them to care about anything other than getting their juice. So yeah, everyone adn their mother is NOT betting on the giants. It's playing out exactly the way they want it to. And tomorrow, if heavy action starts to come one way or another, the line will move. If there's a serious push on the giants, it'll dip under 3.... 3 is a major number in NFL though, so would have to be fairly serious action skewing one way or another to get them off the 3. I'd imagine they'll have close to a 50/50 split at this number, and they'll happily cash in on hundereds of millions on just juice. That doesn't even take into account all the sucker prop bets they'll clean up on... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Recliner Pilot 61 Posted February 5, 2012 You obviously do not bet pro football. If you did you would know that your entire post is false. 1. There are many games that 80-90% of the public is all betting on the same team. Very rarely is there an even split of the money on both teams. 2. Vegas rarely adjusts lines. 3. The public is betting on the giants. 1. The Las Vegas lines are set by the master oddsmakers of Las Vegas to induce an equal amount of betting on each team or contestant http://linesmaker.com/sports-betting/las-vegas-lines.html 2. The line started at 3-1/2. It's at 3 last time I checked. 3. If most money was going to NE, the line would go down. See #1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MTSkiBum 1,594 Posted February 5, 2012 1. http://linesmaker.com/sports-betting/las-vegas-lines.html 2. The line started at 3-1/2. It's at 3 last time I checked. 3. If most money was going to NE, the line would go down. See #1 Like i said if you actually bet pro football you would know that vegas does not work the way you think it works. In a typical week over there are 2-4 games that have 80% of the action on one side. There is an additional 2-4 more games that have between 60 and 80 percent of the action on one side. Vegas does not move those lines to try to get equal action on both sides. Here is another quote from your link. However, the sports betting investor should not have to slink away from the casino parlor, beaten and downtrodden, much like Puff the Magic Dragon in the 1963 Peter, Paul and Mary hit rendition of the Bob Dylan classic by the same name. The Las Vegas lines are the major test for the sports betting investor! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
heavy-set 39 Posted February 5, 2012 Vegas sets, and moves, the line to try to get the same amount bet on both teams. That way they win no matter what. It doesn't necessarily mean they think NE is a lock, just that they believe more people are leaning toward NE with their bets. HTH they try for that, but every week there are a few sides or totals that 90% of gamblers are on. Just fade the public and you will be on the correct side. weather or not you win is another story, but I digress. I am seeing the line down to 2.5 at some off-shore sites. cash is on NY, which means every book will need the pats to cover. most bettors are prolly on the over as well Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
monk 1 Posted February 5, 2012 Like i said if you actually bet pro football you would know that vegas does not work the way you think it works. In a typical week over there are 2-4 games that have 80% of the action on one side. There is an additional 2-4 more games that have between 60 and 80 percent of the action on one side. Vegas does not move those lines to try to get equal action on both sides. Here is another quote from your link. I know nothing about you other than the 2 posts I just read and I already know you are full of ###### and you have no idea what you are talking about. No need to respond ... just an observation. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
swirvenirvin 25 Posted February 5, 2012 Would the books make more money putting out a line of 3 and getting 50/50 action or the 3.5 with 65% on the Giants and 70% on the Giants moneyline? It all depends on the final score. Pats win by 4 and books make alot. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
swirvenirvin 25 Posted February 5, 2012 THE SHARPS LIKE THE GIANTS AT +3 OR BETTER This game opened most places at NYG +3.5, though there were some early fours in a few offshore places at small limits. Sharps POUNDED the Giants at +3.5, and then again at +3 with favorable juice. Oddsmakers and sportsbooks were caught by surprise, and took quite a whole to find a line that backed the sharps off. Late in the week, there was serious talk of a solid move down to NYG +2.5 everywhere, though sportsbooks are very hesitant to move off the critical number of three because the game actually landing on three would be a disaster. Hardly anyone would lose. Las Vegas media even had some sharps going on the air to say that they wouldn’t be surprised if the line kept moving down to NYG +2 or maybe NYG +1.5 if the public came in on the dog over the weekend…or if Patriots receiver Rob Gronkowski was unable to come back from his high ankle sprain. What number would bring in sharps to shoot at a middle? Or, would sharps even bother shooting at a middle figuring they had so much value at the early numbers that they should just enjoy that advantage and try to root the Giants home? That’s something to watch on game day. An early move to the Pats would suggest that the public wants the cheap favorite. An early move toward the Giants followed by a late reversal toward the Pats would suggest the public preferred the major market dog, but sharps bought back to shoot at middles. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MTSkiBum 1,594 Posted February 5, 2012 I know nothing about you other than the 2 posts I just read and I already know you are full of ###### and you have no idea what you are talking about. No need to respond ... just an observation. There is nothing wrong with what i posted. I look at who the public is betting on every week. I am aware that most people believe that the line is set to get the equal money on both sides, and you most likely fall into this line of thinking. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
three out of four 0 Posted February 5, 2012 There is nothing wrong with what i posted. I look at who the public is betting on every week. I am aware that most people believe that the line is set to get the equal money on both sides, and you most likely fall into this line of thinking. He's right. If they move the line to say 2, then people that already bet heavy on the Giants at 3.5 could bet on the Pats giving 2. If the Pats then win by 3, they would win on both of the bets and Vegas would take a beating. This reminds me of the '07 SB when a lot of people bet on the Pats and Vegas cleaned up. As a Pats fan, I love the fact that everyone has been betting on NY since vegas rarely loses. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
phillybear 364 Posted February 5, 2012 There is nothing wrong with what i posted. I look at who the public is betting on every week. I am aware that most people believe that the line is set to get the equal money on both sides, and you most likely fall into this line of thinking. Just wanted to pop in and say that you've been right on everything you've posted so far. It's rare for a game to see 50-50 action. The prop bets today are the key for books making money. There is nothing fishy about the line today. Also, line down to -2.5, which requires quite a bit of pressure to hop over the biggest, most significant key number of all, -3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bushy 0 Posted February 5, 2012 The reason the number hasn't moved to 2.5 is easy. The line opened at Pats -3.5. A lot of money came in on the Giants at that number. The books are terrified that if they move the line 2.5 the game will end up at 3 and they'll lose a ton to both sides. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KSB2424 3,083 Posted February 5, 2012 Just threw a grand on New England -- really something is up - Vegas is not in the losig business and they have basically kept the spread steady to get people to bet NYG in droves. My head says the NYG should win and easily but Vegas doesn't do this unless they know something we don't. Vrgas is basically on purpose wanting all the money on NYG. we will see Nothing wrong with betting on NE, but you don't have any idea how handicapping and betting lines work. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KSB2424 3,083 Posted February 5, 2012 2. Vegas rarely adjusts lines. This is untrue, lines move constantly. What you usually don't see often is lines coming off of numbers like 7 and 3. That takes a significant amount of money on one side to move from those numbers. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KSB2424 3,083 Posted February 5, 2012 There is nothing wrong with what i posted. I look at who the public is betting on every week. I am aware that most people believe that the line is set to get the equal money on both sides, and you most likely fall into this line of thinking. Yes and No. From a macro point of veiw the statement "Lines are set to get equal money on both sides" is more true than it is false. There are a multitude of other factors whereas this will not happen, but the overall statement is okay to say (from a macro pov). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
phillybear 364 Posted February 5, 2012 This is untrue, lines move constantly. What you usually don't see often is lines coming off of numbers like 7 and 3. That takes a significant amount of money on one side to move from those numbers. Lines won't move much on high profile NFL games. Mostly because those games are taking in so much action (and don't want to get middled). I'm genuinely surprised by the move from -3.5 to -2.5 in this game. I would expect that the books would just set a line, ignore it, and rake in a guaranteed huge profit from losing prop bets. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kent 228 Posted February 5, 2012 This game is so tough to call, I'd bet on whoever is getting points. That would be my smart money bet. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Pavlov 0 Posted February 5, 2012 The reason the number hasn't moved to 2.5 is easy. The line opened at Pats -3.5. A lot of money came in on the Giants at that number. The books are terrified that if they move the line 2.5 the game will end up at 3 and they'll lose a ton to both sides. Yes. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MTSkiBum 1,594 Posted February 5, 2012 This is untrue, lines move constantly. What you usually don't see often is lines coming off of numbers like 7 and 3. That takes a significant amount of money on one side to move from those numbers. I posted an incomplete though. What I meant was lines are rarely moved enough points to get the public to shift its betting. Practically every line is shifted a half point. Yes and No. From a macro point of veiw the statement "Lines are set to get equal money on both sides" is more true than it is false. There are a multitude of other factors whereas this will not happen, but the overall statement is okay to say (from a macro pov). On any given week 25-40 percent of the games have a large portion of the public on one side. Also there are times where 60% of the public is betting on one side, and Vegas adjusts the line to get 70% of the people betting on that side. The majority of the games have a pretty even split of money on each side. But it is not the deciding factor when vegas sets its lines. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gepetto 988 Posted February 5, 2012 I think the Giants should be favored by 3. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
heavy-set 39 Posted February 5, 2012 Would the books make more money putting out a line of 3 and getting 50/50 action or the 3.5 with 65% on the Giants and 70% on the Giants moneyline? It all depends on the final score. Pats win by 4 and books make alot. do they set lines at 3.5 anymore? offshore, you will see a line at 3 but instead of a 10% vig, its 35%. ie you lay -135 to win 100. thats how they balance risk nowadays. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MTSkiBum 1,594 Posted February 5, 2012 Lines won't move much on high profile NFL games. Mostly because those games are taking in so much action (and don't want to get middled). I'm genuinely surprised by the move from -3.5 to -2.5 in this game. I would expect that the books would just set a line, ignore it, and rake in a guaranteed huge profit from losing prop bets. I looked at all the casinos that have -2.5, and they have terrible payouts, either -125 or -130. I got -3 early in the week at +105. offshore, you will see a line at 3 but instead of a 10% vig, its 35%. ie you lay -135 to win 100. thats how they balance risk nowadays. Vegas does that too. The MGM has a -2.5 but they have a -125 payout. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Phurfur 70 Posted February 5, 2012 You obviously do not bet pro football. If you did you would know that your entire post is false. 1. There are many games that 80-90% of the public is all betting on the same team. Very rarely is there an even split of the money on both teams. 2. Vegas rarely adjusts lines. 3. The public is betting on the giants. 1. the goal is even money on both side. 2. The lines change constantly, have you ever bet football in Vegas? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
phillybear 364 Posted February 5, 2012 1. the goal is even money on both side. 2. The lines change constantly, have you ever bet football in Vegas? I think the consensus is that the goal is 50-50 action, but that rarely happens. Most games have 60% to 75% of the action on one side. Doesn't matter what sport. Football, basketball, baseball, soccer, UFC, etc. Books can move the line to try to get more action on the other side to try to even out the action. Or they can freeze the line, and take a stand on a game, saying they think the team not getting much action will likely cover. Or there is something fishy about a game. I've been a bookie for decades, I talk shop with books regularly, I study action percentages of offshore books, I strongly believe everything I post. Don't buy into just Vegas. They take a small fraction of the action as compared to illegal local bookies, offshore books, foreign books, etc. Vegas limits the amounts you can wager, which is killing them. They help set initial lines, but they do not drive the industry anymore. Superbowls tend to have an initial sharp line, but all books everywhere make a sh!tload from props. It's Christmas II. Every year, no matter if I won or lost covering the Big Game, the props would be like a year end bonus, getting a huge bump because 90% of the casual and sharp bettors lose money on props on the Superbowl. Because it's laced with sucker bets. And for all the people that bet the first person to score for the game, you only have one possible winner. And 20 possible losers. It's just math. That being said, I did 2 props today, along with the Giants, and I'm still studying the board. Why? Because I'm drunk. And I've already bet every basketball game on the board. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Moz 69 Posted February 6, 2012 well ramen noodles for me for a while -- also FOCK YOU WES WELKER Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Giants Fan 85 Posted February 6, 2012 Just threw away a grand ... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
swirvenirvin 25 Posted February 6, 2012 Do the refund everyone's money since more money was on the Giants? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gepetto 988 Posted February 6, 2012 I think the Giants should be favored by 3. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Reality 2,710 Posted February 6, 2012 Easiet money i ever made, the pat's should have never been favored. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
p00h 85 Posted February 6, 2012 there was practically 50-50 action on that game. Books made a killing with zero risk, and likely padded a ton more on stupid props... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Filthy Fernadez 2,696 Posted February 6, 2012 well ramen noodles for me for a while -- also FOCK YOU TOM BRADY; WES WELKER IS A LIL BASTIGE AND YOU FLAT OUT OVERTHREW HIM! NICE PICK TOO, DOOSH! Fixed. Sorry ya lost Moz. Sign up for food stamps dood. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kutulu 1,547 Posted February 6, 2012 At least you didn't post a thread detailing why the gaints should win and the pats should lose and then bet against your own logic. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Phurfur 70 Posted February 6, 2012 One thing never changes Las Vegas wins! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
420allstars 13 Posted February 7, 2012 One thing never changes Las Vegas wins! always! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
