Trent Richardson

[Cara 0]

Has anyone considered he may be a bust? I'm not saying/predicting he will be, but let's look at the facts:

 

* He rushed the ball almost 300 times last year. If you include his receptions, he had over 300 touches. I mention this as there is not much of a break between college and the NFL season. The players are training for the combine, their pro day, having surgeries... The point is they have little to no down time. No rest.

* He is listed on the Alabama school website at 5'11 and 224lbs, yet listed elsewhere as playing 5'9 227 (http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/trent-richardson-pancakes-nfl-alabama-pro-day-145412499.html) If he's 5'9 and 230(ish), the stress on his knees is going to take a toll and maybe that is what we're seeing now.

* He is very physical and likes to lower his shoulder to hit linebackers/safeties. That works in college, but I recall Mendenhall trying to lower his shoulder when Ray Lewis was coming at him.

* He ran behind maybe the best offensive line in the nation last year (arguably) and now goes to the Browns. That is almost a punishment. Their line isn't bad, but it's far from good.

* Cleveland has a rookie QB and will have a rookie WR (Gordon) playing with Little. Trent will face 8 men in the box on every play, possibly even on 3rd and long. lol

* Four games against Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Cincy isn't looking too bad either.

* Playing against the NFC East this year (improved defenses)

* Having his knee "cleaned up" presently. How is this a good thing?

 

I think he is the best RB to come out in a long time. That said, I'm not taking him in my drafts this year. If I whiff on him and he has a Pro Bowl 2012, and I hope does as I really like him, then I'll just whiff. The story of him taking that High School girl with Leukemia to her Prom this April made me REALLY like him. After looking at all the things against him this season, I'm thinking his ADP is egregious and maybe those who drafted him should trade him while his value is still up there, or trade him right as he's coming back. Either way, I'm not drafting him in 2012 and will hope he does great so I can take him in 2013.

[vegassandwich227 0]

before the knee work, to me, he was going really high for a rookie. people were taking him at the turn btwn rd1&2, which is really paying up a lot for a cleveland rookie...especially when you consider the other skill position players on clev and the solid d's in their division.

 

wouldn't be surprised if in my drafts someone pays up on him, and wouldn't be surprised if he slips a bit...but he'll probably get taken before i want him

[Ace08 11]

I just got him at the end of the 3rd round in a 12 man ppr mock.

 

Sorry...but at that point he's a no brainer. The hate is going too far.

[kicked in the zombos 0]

Personally I thought he was rated too high to begin with. I'm not too concerned about a loose piece of cartiledge being removed so the ironic thing is now he's going where he should and I will take him in the mid to late 3rd depending on whose available. I never had huge hopes for him due to the Browns sucking but he is going to touch the ball 300 times this year I believe. I predict a slow start but a good long term investment.

[ralphster 274]

The story of him taking that High School girl with Leukemia to her Prom this April made me REALLY like him.

 

Me too - real class act that one. RE: Bust? I wouldn't pick him in the top 15-20 picks, but after that he should represent appropriate value if healthy. I hope to see him and CLE become good - its a long suffering fan base that deserves it.

[montana 89]

Me too - real class act that one. RE: Bust? I wouldn't pick him in the top 15-20 picks, but after that he should represent appropriate value if healthy. I hope to see him and CLE become good - its a long suffering fan base that deserves it.

 

Yes we do!

[Vikings4ever 550]

Before his knee injury, I was liking him.

 

He didn't have mega upside, but I saw little chance of an out and out bust, and Peyton Hillis put up nice numbers a couple years ago with roughly the same offense. A classic case of a (relatively) safe pick that won't win you a league, but won't kill your draft.

 

After his knee injury, though, I think you have to avoid him.

[Ditka vs. ______ 0]

Personally I thought he was rated too high to begin with. I'm not too concerned about a loose piece of cartiledge being removed so the ironic thing is now he's going where he should and I will take him in the mid to late 3rd depending on whose available. I never had huge hopes for him due to the Browns sucking but he is going to touch the ball 300 times this year I believe. I predict a slow start but a good long term investment.

Cara, you're spot on. Except the part about not drafting him. I agree with Zombo here, at some point he is worth drafting, and I think it's in the 15-20 RB taken range. This ranking would be near the bottom of RB's that are projected to get a similar amount of touches.

 

Odds are though, someone will overpay and draft him higher than this.

[Cara 0]

Cara, you're spot on. Except the part about not drafting him. I agree with Zombo here, at some point he is worth drafting, and I think it's in the 15-20 RB taken range. This ranking would be near the bottom of RB's that are projected to get a similar amount of touches.

 

Odds are though, someone will overpay and draft him higher than this.

 

 

I actually said I wouldn't draft him based on him going in the 1st or 2nd round. I had no clue he was falling to the 3rd round. I feel bad retracting a statement, but if Trent falls that low, I would take a chance. The drafts I have watched, including one last night, he still went in the early 2nd round, at the 2.03. That is much too high in my opinion. Did you see what happened here? You and I agreed on something.

 

Someone mentioned Trent hate above. No one here hates Trent Richardson, least of all me. I think he is a wonderful man and football player, just being overhyped like nothing I've ever seen. I'm sure some of it is by the same people now talking about taking Andrew Luck as their starter this season. lol

[MicktheGreat 1]

I watched pretty much every game that Trent Richardson played in his college career. Personally, I think he's the best college RB that I've ever seen -- even better in my mind than Adrian Peterson (who was also great). Richardson runs with great power/speed/shiftiness, he's a really good receiver, he's a capable blocker, and he's been durable over the course of his career.

 

I understand that the knee surgery concerns folks. I also understand that people are unsure how he'll play, transitioning from a great college team to a pretty lackluster NFL team. And I also understand that there's the tendency or temptation to over-think and over-critique these college players and find "flaws" that aren't really there. Those are all legit concerns, and it's true that there's no such thing as a "sure bet" when it comes to the NFL because there are circumstantial things that you can never predict or account for.

 

But having said all that, I think Richardson's as close to a "sure bet" as you can reasonably expect, and I wouldn't think twice about drafting him as low-tier #1 RB this year (i.e. somewhere in the #8-14 RB ranking for me).

 

[IGotWorms 4,058]

I'm seeing Trent go for cheap in auction drafts...I'm talking like $20-25 on a $200 budget, which is basically what you pay for a low-end RB2. Frank Gore often goes for only slightly less.

 

It causes quite a conundrum for me, because on the one hand I am not interested in a rookie RB who already has knee issues, but on the other hand that's such good value it's very, very hard to stay away.

[vegassandwich227 0]

for what it's worth, in adp's rookie year, i got him at 4.12 in my 12 team non-ppr. if you recall, he had both (a)injury questions about his knees and (b)was behind chester taylor on the depth chart. i bring it up, because he was a STEAL there.

[Ditka vs. ______ 0]

Let's not forget that he's playing on a team that will likely be playing from behind most of the time. If Cleveland is down double digits, and playing catch up with their passing game, this will put a serious dent into his touch count.

[Ray Lucas 0]

I got him towards the end of the 3rd round. 14th RB taken. Seems like great value to me!

[ralphster 274]

I got him towards the end of the 3rd round. 14th RB taken. Seems like great value to me!

 

I'd agree that's good value. Nice pick Ray

[montana 89]

I still think TRich is a RB1. Now you can get him @ a RB2 price.

Before the knee news, he was going late 1st - early 2nd...mid 2nd at the latest.

Now he's going late 2nd - late 3rd.

I'm still targeting him, now I just don't have to pay as much. But some even think 3rd round is too rich.

[Raider 84 29]

All valid points, I still think he's a year or two away from stardom. In a dynasty or keeper he has a lot more value. In a redraft I might pass on Trent.

[MFFLWarPigs 0]

Cara, you're spot on. Except the part about not drafting him. I agree with Zombo here, at some point he is worth drafting, and I think it's in the 15-20 RB taken range. This ranking would be near the bottom of RB's that are projected to get a similar amount of touches.

 

Odds are though, someone will overpay and draft him higher than this.

 

 

Let's not forget that he's playing on a team that will likely be playing from behind most of the time. If Cleveland is down double digits, and playing catch up with their passing game, this will put a serious dent into his touch count.

 

Disagree with both your points. There aren't 15-20 RB's even projected to get as many touches as he is. And that fits in with the 2nd issue, he's a great pass catcher as well. If they're down in games, the safety valve dump off to the the RB is a rookie QB's best friend. As long as he stays healthy, he's gonna see the ball a TON.

[Kent 228]

I think the kid is underrated now. He's going to be very good with great value. He has ZERO competition. The other backs are unbelievably bad on that roster.

[chroniciguana 13]

This "clean up" surgery really isn't a big deal and it's not uncommon - had it done about two years ago and spent more time filling out the paperwork than I did on the table. But I intend to make it a huge deal in the collective minds of 11 other people come draft day.

[montana 89]

I keep hearing/reading about him on a crappy team, no talent around him, rookie QB, etc...

 

Ever heard of Madden cover boy named Hillis? He was on an even worse team as this year & he's not as talented (imo).

He had injuries last year & just plain gave up & pouted like a biotch because of $.

[skinsrule05 30]

Disagree with both your points. There aren't 15-20 RB's even projected to get as many touches as he is. And that fits in with the 2nd issue, he's a great pass catcher as well. If they're down in games, the safety valve dump off to the the RB is a rookie QB's best friend. As long as he stays healthy, he's gonna see the ball a TON.

 

Does anyone know if this has actually played out? I ask this because if we were in a thread about a TE and a rookie QB someone would be saying the same thing but about that TE. It obviously can't be both. Has anyone seen statistics on rookie QBs where their top target was either a TE or RB?

[420allstars 13]

I think the hate for T-rich is getting a little out of hand in the world of Fantasy Football Forums these days..

 

We all agree he is one of/if not the most talented back to come out in a long time right?

 

He lands on a team that has Zero competition for touches right?

 

He plays three downs (one of maybe 10 guys in the league)

 

He had a very minor scope done and will almost definitely not miss any regular season time (obviously I would rather see him in some pre-season/practices)

 

Now I am not saying take him in the top 5 but after the big three is there really another guy we could analyse to death like people are doing for Trich and not find a few reasons he will bust

 

I took him at 2.02 in a recent Dynasty start-up and have been met with a combo of low ball offers (with a note saying maybe I'll help you out a take him off your hands) and a constant flurry of reasons why he will fail this year..

 

In redraft I would be very happy to pair T-rich with a Top QB and WR and maybe some other flier RB"s later as like I said earlier who the fock knows this year how things will play out..

[Ditka vs. ______ 0]

Disagree with both your points. There aren't 15-20 RB's even projected to get as many touches as he is. And that fits in with the 2nd issue, he's a great pass catcher as well. If they're down in games, the safety valve dump off to the the RB is a rookie QB's best friend. As long as he stays healthy, he's gonna see the ball a TON.

I didn't say there were 15-20 RB's that would get as many touches. I said I think he should be drafted around the 15-20 RB off the board. The OP listed many of the reasons I feel this way.

 

As far as the safety valve theory, that's pure speculation at this point, so we'll have to wait and see. I don't know about you, but I prefer to not draft my first few players based purely on speculation. I prefer proven track records, and save the speculation for sleepers in the later rounds.

[Slim Pickins 0]

I think the hate for T-rich is getting a little out of hand in the world of Fantasy Football Forums these days..

 

We all agree he is one of/if not the most talented back to come out in a long time right?

 

He lands on a team that has Zero competition for touches right?

 

He plays three downs (one of maybe 10 guys in the league)

 

He had a very minor scope done and will almost definitely not miss any regular season time (obviously I would rather see him in some pre-season/practices)

 

Now I am not saying take him in the top 5 but after the big three is there really another guy we could analyse to death like people are doing for Trich and not find a few reasons he will bust

 

I took him at 2.02 in a recent Dynasty start-up and have been met with a combo of low ball offers (with a note saying maybe I'll help you out a take him off your hands) and a constant flurry of reasons why he will fail this year..

 

In redraft I would be very happy to pair T-rich with a Top QB and WR and maybe some other flier RB"s later as like I said earlier who the fock knows this year how things will play out..

chicken dinner!

[Maulers1973 117]

I would have no reservations taking him at end of Rd 1 or early Rd 2.

 

1. He's going to get the touches

2. Cleveland's O-line is not great, but it is really good. The best RB's in the league don't always play behind the best line in the league.

3. Childress should bring balance to the offense and improve the play calling

4. He has the talent to exceed 1500 all purpose yards and 10 TD's.

5. He faced the toughest defenses each and every game in college. He did NOT play in the Big 12.

6. RB's are best when young and starting in their career. I'm in a keeper league, and if I don't get him this year I probably won't be able to get him while in his prime.

 

It's not like he blew out his ACL or anything.

[kmbryant09 1]

To play Devil's Advocate:

-He's one of the most talented RB's to come out of college in quite some time.

-Probably one of the top5-8 talented RB's in the entire NFL: draws comparisons to Adrian Peterson.

-Is young, so he doesn't have the wear & tear that most NFL backs have.

-Is the unquestioned work-horse for his team. That's something you can only say about 5-10 other RB's in the league.

-Baltimore & Pittsburgh's defenses are scary, but they are getting older. Casey Hampton, the NT for PITT, is a big question mark. So is James Harrison. James Farrior is gone. Ed Reed/Ray Lewis are getting old. Baltimore lost it's Defensive Coordinator. I'm not saying they won't have good defenses, but I wouldn't be surprised if both teams took a step back this year.

 

The knee injury is concerning. So is spending a 1st round pick on an unproven commodity. But I think there's a legitimate case to be made for Richardson as the 7th-12th best RB on draft boards. Does he come with question marks? Yeah, but after the top3, who doesn't?

Chris Johnson - which version are you getting.

Ryan Mathews - He got injured while I was typing his name.

Darren McFadden - ditto.

Matt Forte - Returning from injury and now has Michael Bush to split time with.

Adrian Peterson - how far recovered is he from his ACL injury?

Jamaal Charles - ACL injury and Peyton Hillis.

 

You get the point. I'm guessing he plays 14 or 15 games, and gets 280 carries - for 1,150 yards. Catches 30 passes for another couple hundred yards. And scores 6-9 Touchdowns. Probably good enough to finish as a top12 RB.

[touchdowntwitaker 2]

Just take Montario to back him up

[Ditka vs. ______ 0]

I would have no reservations taking him at end of Rd 1 or early Rd 2.

 

I'm in a keeper league, and if I don't get him this year I probably won't be able to get him while in his prime.

I think in a keeper league this is dead on.

[420allstars 13]

To play Devil's Advocate:

-He's one of the most talented RB's to come out of college in quite some time.

-Probably one of the top5-8 talented RB's in the entire NFL: draws comparisons to Adrian Peterson.

-Is young, so he doesn't have the wear & tear that most NFL backs have.

-Is the unquestioned work-horse for his team. That's something you can only say about 5-10 other RB's in the league.

-Baltimore & Pittsburgh's defenses are scary, but they are getting older. Casey Hampton, the NT for PITT, is a big question mark. So is James Harrison. James Farrior is gone. Ed Reed/Ray Lewis are getting old. Baltimore lost it's Defensive Coordinator. I'm not saying they won't have good defenses, but I wouldn't be surprised if both teams took a step back this year.

 

The knee injury is concerning. So is spending a 1st round pick on an unproven commodity. But I think there's a legitimate case to be made for Richardson as the 7th-12th best RB on draft boards. Does he come with question marks? Yeah, but after the top3, who doesn't?

Chris Johnson - which version are you getting.

Ryan Mathews - He got injured while I was typing his name.

Darren McFadden - ditto.

Matt Forte - Returning from injury and now has Michael Bush to split time with.

Adrian Peterson - how far recovered is he from his ACL injury?

Jamaal Charles - ACL injury and Peyton Hillis.

 

You get the point. I'm guessing he plays 14 or 15 games, and gets 280 carries - for 1,150 yards. Catches 30 passes for another couple hundred yards. And scores 6-9 Touchdowns. Probably good enough to finish as a top12 RB.

 

i thought I was alone on this board!

[josepaz2 1]

Anyone know how well this kid does at pass blocking/ picking up blitzs/ etc?

[420allstars 13]

Anyone know how well this kid does at pass blocking/ picking up blitzs/ etc?

 

He is a 3 down back in every sence of the word.. obviously since we have never seen him play a NHL down yet that is still a small concern but he definetly had no trouble with pick-ups in college

[We Tigers 71]

He is a 3 down back in every sence of the word.. obviously since we have never seen him play a NHL down yet that is still a small concern but he definetly had no trouble with pick-ups in college

Yeah, it'd be ice to see him on the rin--er, field, first.

[edjr 6,580]

who drafted him?

 

that's really all you need to know.

 

Sure Hillis had one lucky season.

 

For the most part, people that win at fantasy football avoid drafting running backs on crap ass teams like Cleveland

[bc91 0]

This guy has so many ????

 

Whats the track record for rookie RB's lately( Mathews, Ingram are too over hyped that come to mind) and those were guys who were going to GOOD offenses..... Both of them were injured too....

 

Injured knee- missing rookie training camp and pre-season- No work with pass protection

 

You can say that just on pure talent this guy should be no worse than a RB#3/flex but isnt that what we all said about those other 2 bums too?

[Cara 0]

for what it's worth, in adp's rookie year, i got him at 4.12 in my 12 team non-ppr. if you recall, he had both (a)injury questions about his knees and (b)was behind chester taylor on the depth chart. i bring it up, because he was a STEAL there.

 

 

That is incredible as I just looked at the draft of a league I was in AP's rookie year. He went at the 2.07 in a PPR League at MFL. Not sure how he fell to the 4.12 of your league considering he was the like the 7th overall pick in the draft and WAYYYYYYY more hyped than Trent Richardson. Everyone knew Taylor was the gatekeeper there and NOT a threat to AP. Either you got VERY lucky that year or you draft with 11 third graders.

[Cara 0]

I keep hearing/reading about him on a crappy team, no talent around him, rookie QB, etc...

 

Ever heard of Madden cover boy named Hillis? He was on an even worse team as this year & he's not as talented (imo).

He had injuries last year & just plain gave up & pouted like a biotch because of $.

 

 

This isn't meant to be offensive, but how is this offensive line anything like the line Hillis had? Older? Same but different? lol

 

I do agree Hillis was not on as good of team, however, I will argue his offensive line was better.

 

As for the person who said they could't believe all the trent "hate" on this board.... Where is the hate? I sure haven't seen it! Is saying you will not draft someone, or before a specific round, hating them? No. lol It is only one opinion. Let's face it, taking a rookie RB in the first round is nuts. I've seen people do it over the years and it almost always fails. Even the second round is a reach right now, in my opinion. I've yet to see him fall to the 3rd, so I won't comment on that round yet. There, he may represent great value. I just don't know. Just a month ago he was first rounder in many drafts. He isn't right now. I'm not sold on Weeden or Little yet. They have no real TE and Gordon may or may not be worth owning. Time will tell. Weeden didn't have Ray Lewis or Ngata chasing him in college. Gordon didn't play against Webb or Reed. At this point, I see him being held in to pass block on many third downs. This team has injury issues, internal issues, and major defensive issues. If they fall behind, I see his skills being negated. I've yet to see a rookie RB earn the trust of his QB enough to "make a difference" in the passing game. That is an almost absure comment. I think Edge may have done that as well as Faulk, but those guys with explicit pass catching skills. Just because TRich caught 29 passes last season doesn't make him a 75 reception guy at the NFL level. As I've said, I think he is an awesome person.

[BUCKEYES 0]

I think everyone is still having an Adrian Peterson hangover. When he came out I was lucky enough to grab him in the 6th round. Since that time I see Ryan Matthews, Mark Ingram, Shonn Green, Reggie Bush, etc. being drafted early with very little payoff. I'm in Ohio so I know Richardson will go WAY too early. As others have said, I hope he does well, but he won't be on my team because no way he falls to where I would feel comfortable drafting him.

[Maulers1973 117]

The Browns O-line looked good last night against the Packers defense. Guys like Hardesty(mediocre) and Jackson(sucks!) were able to run the ball well.