Matt Ryan

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Just drafted Ryan in the seventh round in a 6 pt per TD league. I paired him up with Brady who I drafted in the first round. I really do like his potential this year as they will need to air it out to keep up with the other high powered offenses in the NFC. I drafted him for 2 reasons really. First I don't like having a bad QB as my backup. It makes me nervous and there has been enough times I wished I had a good QB to take over for an injured one. I also like the trade potential he brings. Every year there is always at least 1 team with QB issues. Whether it is due to injury or just a lack of production, there is always someone that needs a QB, especially one that has the potential to put up top 5 numbers.

[Cara 0]

Just drafted Ryan in the seventh round in a 6 pt per TD league. I paired him up with Brady who I drafted in the first round. I really do like his potential this year as they will need to air it out to keep up with the other high powered offenses in the NFC. I drafted him for 2 reasons really. First I don't like having a bad QB as my backup. It makes me nervous and there has been enough times I wished I had a good QB to take over for an injured one. I also like the trade potential he brings. Every year there is always at least 1 team with QB issues. Whether it is due to injury or just a lack of production, there is always someone that needs a QB, especially one that has the potential to put up top 5 numbers.

 

 

I've drafted in 5 leagues now since Thursday and will keep up my one-a-day pace until the season begins. I still have not seen Matt fall past the 5th in any of my leagues. One of them was a 4 point TD league, so you would think if he's going to fall, that would have been the league, but he didn't. Getting him in the 7th is an absolute steal. Sometimes I wonder where you all draft at. He may fall in the Yahoo leagues, but the leagues where people are paying attention, he isn't slipping.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

I've drafted in 5 leagues now since Thursday and will keep up my one-a-day pace until the season begins. I still have not seen Matt fall past the 5th in any of my leagues. One of them was a 4 point TD league, so you would think if he's going to fall, that would have been the league, but he didn't. Getting him in the 7th is an absolute steal. Sometimes I wonder where you all draft at. He may fall in the Yahoo leagues, but the leagues where people are paying attention, he isn't slipping.

 

 

My draft was 2 weeks ago. I took Ryan in round 6 right after Romo and Rivers went. Could i had waited another round? Sure. But why risk it. I would HATE to have a guy like Palmer or Big Ben anchoring my team.

[vegassandwich227 0]

I've drafted in 5 leagues now since Thursday and will keep up my one-a-day pace until the season begins. I still have not seen Matt fall past the 5th in any of my leagues. One of them was a 4 point TD league, so you would think if he's going to fall, that would have been the league, but he didn't. Getting him in the 7th is an absolute steal. Sometimes I wonder where you all draft at. He may fall in the Yahoo leagues, but the leagues where people are paying attention, he isn't slipping.

 

with ya. i have the 12 pick in a 12 teamer, and i'm assuming ryan just won't be an option for me this year, since i'm not taking him at the 3-4 turn but he won't be dropping to me at the 5-6 turn.

[We Tigers 71]

My draft was 2 weeks ago. I took Ryan in round 6 right after Romo and Rivers went. Could i had waited another round? Sure. But why risk it. I would HATE to have a guy like Palmer or Big Ben anchoring my team.

See, you're agreeing with "don't reach for any specific tier 2 QB" after all. You took Ryan as the last of that group. You couldn't do that today given where he's going.

 

Cara, I recall from FBN's thread that lots of kickers and defenses were drafted in the 7th and 8th round when he got Ryan in the 7th. Also a 10 team league. So, probably not heavy hitters across the board.

[throttlers 0]

I have gone into several drafts with Ryan as a target, but he always seems to go before I would take him. Last night I saw him go at 4.1.

[FeelingMN 273]

Drafted him at #61 yesterday(QB8), ahead of Romo and Rivers. Probably could have waited another round with those guys still on the board...I would have taken Rivers had he fallen instead of Ryan. Dallas is kinda worrying me a bit so far this preseason, so I don't want anything to do with Romo.

 

This is probably the absolute worst time to buy Ryan, his value is totally inflated. If he scuffles a bit this week, or folks start to pay more attention to the backlash, then you might be able to get him cheaper in the next couple of weeks.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

"Philip Rivers has thrown three interceptions and one touchdown through two preseason games.

Rivers is 16-of-20 through two preseason games, but is averaging just 9.1 yards per completion. And on Saturday night, an ugly underthrow of a wide open Robert Meachem resulted in an interception. Rivers has done nothing this preseason to squash concerns over diminishing arm strength. "

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

See, you're agreeing with "don't reach for any specific tier 2 QB" after all. You took Ryan as the last of that group. You couldn't do that today given where he's going.

 

Cara, I recall from FBN's thread that lots of kickers and defenses were drafted in the 7th and 8th round when he got Ryan in the 7th. Also a 10 team league. So, probably not heavy hitters across the board.

 

No, i didn't say that.

Obviously his first 2 preseason game versus Baltimore and Cinci are "confirming" the speculation for many that he will have a solid year ahead.

Unless you are getting Romo, Eli, Rivers in round 6-7 then obviously it's worth the wait. It all depends on the flow of your draft. Ryan's number have increased every year over the past 4 seasons. You want to BUY a guy with increasing numbers year over year. Add in the situation he's in with 2 elite WR and you might have a guy that can potentially finish 4-5 this season.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I've drafted in 5 leagues now since Thursday and will keep up my one-a-day pace until the season begins. I still have not seen Matt fall past the 5th in any of my leagues. One of them was a 4 point TD league, so you would think if he's going to fall, that would have been the league, but he didn't. Getting him in the 7th is an absolute steal. Sometimes I wonder where you all draft at. He may fall in the Yahoo leagues, but the leagues where people are paying attention, he isn't slipping.

I am in 5 leagues and this one i jumped in about 2 weeks before the draft. I never drafted with these guys so i had no idea what to expect. There were chicago homers out there so cutler was taken in the fourth and yes kickers and defense were flying off the board. This will be the only league i am in where this happens, hopefully.

 

I know 7th round isnt likely and anyone targeting him shouldnt plan on waiting that long. Just chiming in on where he went. I almost always go bpa so it is the reason he ended up on my team along with brady. I can tell some of the guys like to target possible unattentive owners after i received this offer:

 

Give brady, garcon

Get eli, stevie johnson

 

I do wish i was in more 12 team leagues but it has just ended up being 10 teamers besides zealots. Rashad jennings and roy helu went undrafted part because of a lack of attentive owners and part because of a smaller bench with 6 players. I do like hankerson a lot but i will probably be dropping him for either jennings or helu. I also would like to get rid of jstew as i feel he doesnt have much potential unless there are a few injuries.

 

Edit just received another offer of eli and denarius moore for brady and hankerson. This is going to be a fun year.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

I've been a big supporter of Ryan a month ago as a sleeper.

Let's really look closely at the other QB and their best statistical seasons that are getting taken around the same time as Ryan.

 

Ryan:

2011-12 4177 29 12

 

Eli:

2006-07 3244 24 18

2007-08 3336 23 20

2008-09 3238 21 10

2009-10 4021 27 14

2010-11 4002 31 25

2011-12 4933 29 16

 

Romo:

2006-07 2903 19 13

2007-08 4211 36 19

2008-09 3448 26 14

2009-10 4483 26 9

2010-11 1605 11 7

2011-12 4184 31 10

 

Rivers:

2006-07 3388 22 9

2007-08 3152 21 15

2008-09 4009 34 11

2009-10 4254 28 9

2010-11 4710 30 13

2011-12 4624 27 20

[skinsrule05 30]

Why is it crazy to take him as a 6-8th QB? His value is about right where he should be. The dude did finish 8th overall last season.

 

I did not say it is crazy to take him there. I said getting him there was a decent pick. The issue is that it isn't a huge value pick. A month ago he was great value, now not so much.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

I did not say it is crazy to take him there. I said getting him there was a decent pick. The issue is that it isn't a huge value pick. A month ago he was great value, now not so much.

 

So every pick has to be a value pick? Isn't the purpose of the draft is to build a team to contend for a championship. So, if you have 2 RB and 2 WR locked up in the first 3/4 rounds, why not take a QB thats in a great situation to have better outputs than his (4,100 29TD) prior season?

[montana 89]

I had a 10 team draft last night & I drafted Ryan with the 4th pick in the 5th round.

He was the 12th QB taken overall. I was starting to sweat & had to pull the trigger a little earlier than expected. In mocks I've been able to get him in the 6th pretty frequently, but QBs went faster in the draft than any mock I had done.

4pt TD throws.

[Laurence Maroney's Nuts 2]

Wanted Matty Ice, but he's finally latching on to the Julio tailwind, as I expected.

 

I'll probably target Cutler now.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I had a 10 team draft last night & I drafted Ryan with the 4th pick in the 5th round.

He was the 12th QB taken overall. I was starting to sweat & had to pull the trigger a little earlier than expected. In mocks I've been able to get him in the 6th pretty frequently, but QBs went faster in the draft than any mock I had done.

4pt TD throws.

Either every team already had a qb and one had 2 qb or a few already had 2. Is it 8 points a td? I assume someone took luck and rg3 before ryan.

[jrbdmb 28]

I did not say it is crazy to take him there. I said getting him there was a decent pick. The issue is that it isn't a huge value pick. A month ago he was great value, now not so much.

 

Once everybody starts calling someone a "value pick" or "sleeper" he is probably neither. And Ryan is being called both by all of the big fantasy sites.

[ralphster 274]

Wanted Matty Ice, but he's finally latching on to the Julio tailwind, as I expected.

 

I'll probably target Cutler now.

 

Nod a bad back up plan. If Ryan goes before I'd take him I'll look Romo/Rivers but if I miss them too I will look to Cutler/Fitzpatrick.

[skinsrule05 30]

So every pick has to be a value pick? Isn't the purpose of the draft is to build a team to contend for a championship. So, if you have 2 RB and 2 WR locked up in the first 3/4 rounds, why not take a QB thats in a great situation to have better outputs than his (4,100 29TD) prior season?

 

In the first 5-6 rounds I would say yes you want every pick to be a value pick. Paying what a player is worth is not going to give you an advantage. Paying less then what he is worth does give you an advantage. The Ryan hype has taken most of the advantage away.

 

Edit- after the first 5-6 rounds you have to fill out your team so you may be taking for need instead of value.

[Laurence Maroney's Nuts 2]

Nod a bad back up plan. If Ryan goes before I'd take him I'll look Romo/Rivers but if I miss them too I will look to Cutler/Fitzpatrick.

 

I was on the Rivers plan, but he's starting to scare me away tbh. I'm with you on Fitzpatrick He can be had dirt cheap - I'm looking to nab him as a conservative QB2 with upside, now that he's healthy.

[boshek95 0]

I think most of us that are in the camp of Ryan not being a “value” selection are not necessarily calling him a bad pick at his current ADP. We’re just saying he isn’t so much of a sleeper or a value pick. As I mentioned before, I think his upside is already starting to be priced into his cost/ADP. I don’t see him as a wasted pick at this point; it seems near to fair market value, imo.

 

An example:

 

You can go into a store with $20 and get what looks like exactly $20 worth of quality goods or services. You did just fine with your transaction. You got what you paid for.

 

On the other hand, if you see the opportunity to spend only $15 to get what looks like $18 worth of goods or services, you would get better value for your money (a better Return on Investment). While you’re a touch worse off with this particular good or service (a QB maybe?) you still have $5 left over to spend elsewhere (maybe on an improved RB or WR in the world of FF).

 

With all of that said, if Ryan is a guy you really want this year… go out and get him. Absolutely. I have no qualm with that at all. And I do agree with the point made that not every selection in your draft has to be a value pick. However, I would say that making several quality value picks is often a key ingredient to a successful draft.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

In the first 5-6 rounds I would say yes you want every pick to be a value pick. Paying what a player is worth is not going to give you an advantage. Paying less then what he is worth does give you an advantage. The Ryan hype has taken most of the advantage away.

 

Edit- after the first 5-6 rounds you have to fill out your team so you may be taking for need instead of value.

 

With RB being so thin and WR being so deep, why forgo a potential QB with good upside this year in rounds 4,5,6?

The reason you are even looking at QB in the middle rounds is because you took RB & WR early. At best you will have a flex position to fill after 4....

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

In the first 5-6 rounds I would say yes you want every pick to be a value pick. Paying what a player is worth is not going to give you an advantage. Paying less then what he is worth does give you an advantage. The Ryan hype has taken most of the advantage away.

 

Edit- after the first 5-6 rounds you have to fill out your team so you may be taking for need instead of value.

This boils down to how good YOU think he will be. Even in the fourth round, if he ends up as a top 5 QB it was really good value. If you think he belongs behind Romo, Eli, Rivers, like he was a few weeks ago, then he is obviously not of any value at that spot to you.

[Ditka vs. ______ 0]

With RB being so thin and WR being so deep, why forgo a potential QB with good upside this year in rounds 4,5,6?

 

You're proving the point of the thread here. You've targeted Matt Ryan as the guy you want, and you're willing to pay whatever price it takes to draft him, even if it means an early round pick. If guys like you are taking him as the 6-8 QB off the board or earlier, drafters cannot afford to wait on him. And all those who were hoping to get a steal by drafting a high production QB for a low price, are going to have to look elsewhere.

[steelers2101 7]

Honestly thinking about taking Matt Ryan as my 2nd QB in both my 12 team league and 14 team league (1 QB leagues) in the 4th/5th round.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Honestly thinking about taking Matt Ryan as my 2nd QB in both my 12 team league and 14 team league (1 QB leagues) in the 4th/5th round.

Me and you seem to be on the same page with a lot of our strategy. I drafted him as my qb2 in the seventh round and the move was questioned by just about everyone having an opinion on it. In a 14 team league there will be multiple teams with major problems at qb, there always is in my 10 team leagues. At the very least ryan presents a good backup plan for your first round qb. If both ryan and your other qb are healthy you will be able to trade him for a position of need. Another possible outcome is putting the other teams without a qb into panic mode, thus forcing an ealier than anticipated run on the later tier players.

 

For me it would all depend on who is in my roster and who is available at that pick. If someone like harvin or colston are there i would have a hard time passing. If youre looking at a bunch of mediocre rb like redman, bge, or ridley i would definitely pass on one of them to grab a potential top 5 qb.

[Kent 228]

I'd like to know the expectation for the falcons d this year.

 

If they've improved that's not good for Ryan owners. We know that when they get a decent lead they love to just pound Turner into the defense.

[steelers2101 7]

Me and you seem to be on the same page with a lot of our strategy. I drafted him as my qb2 in the seventh round and the move was questioned by just about everyone having an opinion on it. In a 14 team league there will be multiple teams with major problems at qb, there always is in my 10 team leagues. At the very least ryan presents a good backup plan for your first round qb. If both ryan and your other qb are healthy you will be able to trade him for a position of need. Another possible outcome is putting the other teams without a qb into panic mode, thus forcing an ealier than anticipated run on the later tier players.

 

For me it would all depend on who is in my roster and who is available at that pick. If someone like harvin or colston are there i would have a hard time passing. If youre looking at a bunch of mediocre rb like redman, bge, or ridley i would definitely pass on one of them to grab a potential top 5 qb.

 

I've noticed that too re our strategies. Unfortunately, I doubt he is there for me in the 14 teamer, and I'm not sure I can pass up the other available talent in the 12 teamer.

 

The run of QBs does happen. In the 14 teamer last year, I went QB QB with my first two picks andRyan himself went early 3rd and 9 or 10 QBs were gone by the end of the 4th.

 

On your last point, agreed as well.

[PackYourNut 47]

I'd like to know the expectation for the falcons d this year.

 

If they've improved that's not good for Ryan owners. We know that when they get a decent lead they love to just pound Turner into the defense.

 

Secondary is improved... They lost their leading tackler... Still no consistent pass rush... I'd say middle of the road D... However, it's hard to pound the rock with a RB who is going to have a hard time breaking 4YPC.

[Kent 228]

I agree it's hard to pound the rock with Turner now. I think the guy stinks. But they still pound him with a marginal lead. If the d turn stout this season, then Ryan's ceiling takes a big hit.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

Secondary is improved... They lost their leading tackler... Still no consistent pass rush... I'd say middle of the road D... However, it's hard to pound the rock with a RB who is going to have a hard time breaking 4YPC.

 

Turner averaged 4.5 yards last season. He averaged 3.3 in December because of a knee sprained. Despite the poor December number he still finished 4.5 yards per carry.

Keep in mind, he didn't become a starter until 26 years old. Only had 3 seasons out of the past 4 with 300+ carries. I think there's still "some" threads left in the burner.

[Joey Gladstone 33]

Jones will have a great year, but I think that will be at the expense of Gonzo and White. I think Ryan's numbers wont be a lot better then last years.

[Joey Gladstone 33]

Turner averaged 4.5 yards last season. He averaged 3.3 in December because of a knee sprained. Despite the poor December number he still finished 4.5 yards per carry.

Keep in mind, he didn't become a starter until 26 years old. Only had 3 seasons out of the past 4 with 300+ carries. I think there's still "some" threads left in the burner.

 

You can't call him The Burner anymore because he's definitely lost a couple gears. He's still a quick 250 lb RB. Getting Rodgers more involved could actually keep him useful for a few extra years.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Jones will have a great year, but I think that will be at the expense of Gonzo and White. I think Ryan's numbers wont be a lot better then last years.

Well roddy and julio were dinged up julio missed some time and julo was a rookie. During the second half of the season he tore it up with a healthy white and julio as they also tore it up. I was kind of high on ryan last year but balked at drafting hin as something just didnt feel right. I am on board this year. I have said it before i am usually right about qb. Not trying to brag as i have had my fair share of misses at all other positions. I just usually end up right when i project a qb to outperform expectations. Of course i am not saying i am able to predict all qb breakouts, just the ones i feel most likely. I can easy see 35 td from him. Stafford was right around there last year which will put ryan at about qb5.

 

Also turner clearly isnt the same runner. It doesnt matter that he disnt start until 26. He has had so many touches the past 4 years and it is catching up to him. They will need to pass early and often to keep up with the other power hpuse offenses in the nfc.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

This is going to sound crazy, but i think Ryan finish 4th overall this season. I got a feeling Brees (Saints debacle) or Stafford (Megatron Madden Curse) will drop off this season.

[Kent 228]

This is going to sound crazy, but i think Ryan finish 4th overall this season. I got a feeling Brees (Saints debacle) or Stafford (Megatron Madden Curse) will drop off this season.

 

Bree's still has weapons and a horrible d. They are forced to throw all day. It's glorious.

 

Stafford is a frail. We've seen his last 16 week season.

 

I don't think Ryan is good enough to deliver top 4 production.

[IGotWorms 3,315]

BTW, I am not high on Eli Manning (since his name keeps coming up in this thread). Don't get me wrong, I think he's a very good NFL QB (I'm a Patriots fan, so I would know). But as a fantasy QB I think his ceiling is pretty limited.

 

Take last year for example. Cruz broke out, Nicks was there, and Eli had a great year. Despite all that he managed only 29 TDs. Considering last year was basically a career year for Eli, I would've like to have seen 35 or 40 touchdowns.

 

He's a decent option, but he's being overdrafted this year imo.

[DaDanimal 2]

Cutler is the value QB this year.

 

Unfortunately I have a bunch of Bears homers in my league so the value of Cutler and Marshall and even a late round flier on Alshon is pretty much moot for me.

[PackYourNut 47]

Cutler is the value QB this year.

 

Unfortunately I have a bunch of Bears homers in my league so the value of Cutler and Marshall and even a late round flier on Alshon is pretty much moot for me.

 

I have both Ryan and Cutler in my big money league and I doubt Cutler will ever see the starting lineup except on a bye week or injury!

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

Bree's still has weapons and a horrible d. They are forced to throw all day. It's glorious.

 

Stafford is a frail. We've seen his last 16 week season.

 

I don't think Ryan is good enough to deliver top 4 production.

 

The pieces are there.

The situation is right.

His production over the final 9 weeks last season and this preseason has indicated he could be a 4,600 35+ TD guy.

 

All the points have been made on both side. We'll just have to wait and see.