Blackmon

[Cstriker 2]

Did he put enough on the game tape late in the season to show promise, that he will ever be a true #1? Shorts is no slouch on the other side when he is healthy. I cant help but thinking, if Jags get a good QB, you are looking at the next great receiver tandom.

 

Anyone have arguments for or against this notion?

 

Edit: To set the expectation right, the ceiling I am looking for is 1500+ Yds 10+ TDs kinda season. This is Dez, Calvin, Julio, AJ territory.

[ralphster 274]

There were a lot of questions last year; work ethic, drinking, etc. He definitely got better towards the end of the year, but any thinking about him and Shorts has to begin and end with Gabbert/Henne - neither has done enough to warrant bumping their WRs much at all. Should a new QB surface in JAX that could change things, but I feel them's small odds anytime soon.

[Portis26 0]

#3 fantasy WR

#2 real football WR

Will be #1 option in Jax

[Voltaire 4,560]

I think Jax has good WRs with him and Shorts but it'll be a struggle to produce WR3 numbers let alone WR1/2 value this year or next. Now Larry Fitzgerald can pull off WR1/2 value with warm poo QBing for him but he's got other worldly talent. I don't think we'll get that from these two.

[cbfalcon 824]

I think at this time next year, Blackmon will be a top 15 dynasty WR. In college, most consider him better than Dez. Obviously needs a QB though.

[polecatt 403]

That 1 huge game is about all he did in his rookie year. It was all I needed to see. This guy will be good.

[Cstriker 2]

There were a lot of questions last year; work ethic, drinking, etc. He definitely got better towards the end of the year, but any thinking about him and Shorts has to begin and end with Gabbert/Henne - neither has done enough to warrant bumping their WRs much at all. Should a new QB surface in JAX that could change things, but I feel them's small odds anytime soon.

 

 

Nassib

Tyler Wilson

 

If one these two landed in Jax, i think things will start looking up. But is Jax looking for a QB in the top 2 rounds is the big question

[Voltaire 4,560]

Nassib

Tyler Wilson

 

If one these two landed in Jax, i think things will start looking up. But is Jax looking for a QB in the top 2 rounds is the big question

Oh, they absolutely are. They're taking Geno Smith at #2 unless Buffalo makes a telephone call to Andy Reid.

[IGotWorms 3,315]

There were a lot of questions last year; work ethic, drinking, etc. He definitely got better towards the end of the year, but any thinking about him and Shorts has to begin and end with Gabbert/Henne - neither has done enough to warrant bumping their WRs much at all. Should a new QB surface in JAX that could change things, but I feel them's small odds anytime soon.

 

[giraldi02 470]

I'm buying in my re-draft leagues. From weeks 11-16 Blackmon was targeted 60 times and in the fantasy playoffs he totaled 19 catches for 229 yards and while he only recorded one touchdown, he had another taken back by a very suspect holding call against Miami. Additionally, Laurent Robinson is no longer with the team as Gabbert seemed focused solely on him in the first two games of the season rather than building a rapport with his rookie teammate.

 

He struggled against Indianapolis both times he faced them as well as the first time he faced Houston. I'm not sure what to make of the 200 yard plus game the second time around. That game was just a wild shootout, but the 81 yard touchdown by Blackmon was a thing of beauty. He caught the ball in triple coverage, broke the tackles, and outran everyone in the Houston secondary. And this was before Johnathan Joseph left the game, albeit he was covering the opposite end of the field. More good news is that he routinely torched the Titans going for 11 catches on 19 targets and 141 yards, 2 TDs.

 

If Chad Henne wins the starting quarterback job in Jacksonville I'm looking at Blackmon as a solid WR2. And given the way that Gabbert has played in his brief career...I can't imagine how Henne doesn't win the job.

 

I'll buy

[madd futher mucker 36]

There were a lot of questions last year; work ethic, drinking, etc. He definitely got better towards the end of the year, but any thinking about him and Shorts has to begin and end with Gabbert/Henne - neither has done enough to warrant bumping their WRs much at all. Should a new QB surface in JAX that could change things, but I feel them's small odds anytime soon.

 

+1 The chances of him becoming a top 15 receiver this year are less than 50% IMO. He did surprise me with his performances the last part of 2012 however.

 

He is a great buy now and hold guy. Good WR3 fantasy stats next year. But it still is Jacksonville, and they haven't shown me much in terms of talent evaluation overall, especially at QB.....could take a while to reach WR1 or WR2. So the situation he's in could drive a WR to drink. Will probably drive his dynasty fantasy owner to drink too.

[weepaws 2,460]

they don't have a qb i don't see him that high at all

[sirensong 111]

I think at this time next year, Blackmon will be a top 15 dynasty WR. In college, most consider him better than Dez.

 

i may be misinformed, but i thought the word was that blackmon was a more polished and NFL-ready WR, while dez had more raw physical talent.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Guys where are you on Shorts I debated him and Mike Williams in our .5 PPR mock draft.

 

I didn't see many Jax games, who did?, last year but I watched some of his highlights. Seemed to have great big play ability and is very shifty after the catch. Some of his big plays reminded me of Crus almost 2 years ago but he seems to have a bigger build.

 

Anyway, based on his stats last year, it seems there might be WR 2 upside lurking here. What do you guys think?

 

Some of his big question marks are probably gonna scare me away from drafting him until his situation is clearer.

 

1. One hit wonder

2. Who is the QB gonna be? The offense seemed to take off, fantasy wise, under Henne.

3. He had 2 concussions at the end of the season. Can he avoid another?

4. Is Blackmon really the #1 and will he command those targets?

5. Will MJD returning mean a return to a more power based run scheme?

 

Anyway...thoughts?

[cbfalcon 824]

i may be misinformed, but i thought the word was that blackmon was a more polished and NFL-ready WR, while dez had more raw physical talent.

 

You may be correct. I just remember people saying Blackmon was the better prospect. But opinions may have differed.

 

The thing to remember is they were thought of similarly. Blackmon was elite enough to go #5 overall in the draft. The last 10 years, the only other WR's to go top 5 were:

 

- AJ Green

- Calvin Johnson

- Braylon Edwards

- Larry Fitzgerald

- Charles Rogers

- Andre Johnson

 

That's it the last 10 years. 4 of the 6 are arguably the 4 best WR's in football. Rogers was an injury/drug bust but most that saw him think he was as talented as any of the others on the list. And Braylon was a legit on the field bust. I'm not arguing that Blackmon will reach the level of Green, Megatron, Fitz, of Andre. I'm just comparing his draft status.

 

Furthermore, lets look at those guys rookie seasons:

 

Green: 65 catches, 1057 yards, 7 TDs

Andre J.: 66 catches, 976 yards, 4 TDs

Blackmon: 64 catches, 865 yards, 5 TDs

Fitz: 58 catches, 780 yards, 8 TDs

Megatron: 48 catches, 756 yards, 4 TDs

Braylon: 32 catches, 512 yards, 3 TDs

Rogers: 22 catches, 243 yards, 3 TDs (injury)

 

 

There is nothing there to indicate Blackmon is behind the pace or had a worse rookie season than most of those guys that share his pedigree.

 

As a small point of reference, we held our dynasty inaugural draft AFTER Megatron's rookie season. I was able to grab him in the 4th round, and the thought seemed to be I grabbed him 1 round too early.

[Dr Hook 6]

There were a lot of questions last year; work ethic, drinking, etc. He definitely got better towards the end of the year, but any thinking about him and Shorts has to begin and end with Gabbert/Henne - neither has done enough to warrant bumping their WRs much at all. Should a new QB surface in JAX that could change things, but I feel them's small odds anytime soon.

 

 

I agree

[Cara 0]

I think at this time next year, Blackmon will be a top 15 dynasty WR. In college, most consider him better than Dez. Obviously needs a QB though.

 

 

In recent real dynasty drafts (not mocks) I have seen Blackmon go in the top 12. I think the draft will answer a lot of our questions. Jacksonville desperately needs a QB. I took Blackmon in my dynasty rookie drafts last season and will not typically consider trading him. I view him as a Dez Bryant type of player, but not until the QB situation is straightened out. Even with Henne, I believe he could put up high end WR3 or low WR2 numbers this season. Having MJD back should allow him and Shorts to both see less coverage. If you watched the games last season, many teams were using dime packages against these two as they didn't view the Jags running game as a threat. Blackmon found some huge holes, as did Shorts. With more men now at the line of scrimmage, I would expect them both find holes more easily this year. Again though, the question is who is throwing them the ball? Anyone but Gabbert is an upgrade.

 

I've posted this before, but people tend to overlook Shorts. When he was drafted, Scouts Inc. claimed he would be the second coming of Hines Ward. He runs terrific routes and has an other-worldly release off the line. He is quicker than he is fast, but he finds holes in the defense and has deceptive speed. With the Jaguars defense being a laughingstock, these guys are great buy low candidates if you can get them. Blackmon though, seems to be on the dynasty radar of most owners. Getting him will not be nearly as easy as getting Shorts.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Excellent analaysis CBFalcon

 

 

Anyone have insight on my Shorts question?

[DrG 94]

Shorts over m w

 

More garbage time stats for him in 2013

[slimbrady 0]

Shorts over m w

 

More garbage time stats for him in 2013