Anyone else skiddish on AP 1st overall?

[throttlers 0]

In the league I care most about, I have the fist overall pick. We have to do an early draft this weekend because of some of the guys schedules. It's a 12 team re-draft with 0.5 PPR

 

AP seems the consensus #1 pick. However, history is not in his favor. I am concerned about his workload and the drop off that we have seen happen after a RB has a 2000 yard season. I am also not in love with Foster this year. I have a big man-crush on both Martin and Spiller though. I may try and trade down. If I can't trade down, am I nuts for thinking of taking Martin or Spiller at #1?

[ralphster 274]

I have a big man-crush on both Martin and Spiller though. I may try and trade down. If I can't trade down, am I nuts for thinking of taking Martin or Spiller at #1?

 

Move back to 3 (Martin) or 5 (Spiller) and get your guy if at all possible. So long as you're not asking the moon for 1.01 you should find a willing partner.

[Upper Class Trash 67]

I am personally taking Charles #1 when I have the opportunity. You can't feed all the new mouths in Minnesota and give the ball to AP as often as last year. I expect him to still be a top RB, but will he finish #1 overall? I don't personally believe so. He was used out of necessity last season. That isn't the case this year with Jennings and Patterson on board and Simpson back in the fold.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Pass at your own risk. The dude is a freak and if anyone is going to buck the trend of carries and yards after heavy workload years it will be AP.

 

I feel he has a few more years of domination left in him.

[idiotec 31]

You don't necessarily have to believe he is going to finish #1 overall to still pick him in the 1st spot. If he still finishes top 10 at the end of the year which would seem like a lock baring injury, I don't think it's a bad pick. I think what you want more out of that pick is consistent production. I really like Spiller, Martin, etc too, but they still bring greater risk with perhaps added upside. Have to determine if that’s a risk to take. If you can trade down, great, if not, I say take AP and know you are almost guaranteed a top 5 back.

[famousb 11]

Pass at your own risk. The dude is a freak and if anyone is going to buck the trend of carries and yards after heavy workload years it will be AP.

 

I feel he has a few more years of domination left in him.

Only 1 RB in the HISTORY of the NFL has put up back-to-back 1800 yd seasons... that's Eric Dickerson. every other RB that has put up 1800 has come crashing down to an average of about 1400. RBs who put up 2,000 typically come crashing down harder.

granted, AP is a stud - but when he doesn't put up more than 1500 total yards people will say he was a disappointment... heck, he could finish #1 RB overall and people still could be disappointed in him if he doesn't light it up again like he did last year.

 

he's the only legit, justifiable, #1 pick - but personally, i'd try my darnedest to trade down and go for one of the #3-7 guys... IMO, AP will probably finish as like RB7-9, so you can get better value by trading down...

[Michariz 0]

After last season, and the available alternatives, how can you not take AP #1?

[IGotWorms 3,315]

I *might* consider Charles if I had the #1 overall, but bottom line is ADP proved he was a true freak of nature last year and I just don't think I can doubt that henceforth until he shows otherwise.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Pretty worthwhile read on the subject.

 

Over/Under: Adrian Peterson

 

http://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2013/08/07/14348/

[weepaws 2,460]

no way am i passing on peterson if i have the first pick .just seems like to much of a lock to be near the top of fantasy points no matter the postion ..naw give me the number one pick and i am taking peterson

[BeerBellyBoys 0]

He still plays the Lions twice. I think he can be #1 again. That being said, Take who you want. Trade back if you can but take your guy.

[heavy-set 39]

i dont think he will finish #1 overall, you just have to be realist with your expectations.

 

for me ap is a safe #1.

[GreenTD 56]

If I draw the ace of spades on draft day, AP's name will immediately follow.

 

I can understand the arguments for Martin, Charles or Spiller but good luck with betting against the most consistent running back since LT. Other than Peyton Manning, I doubt anyone prepares harder than AP. Also the NFC North division doesn't boast any strong rush defenses other than Chicago & AP has a pretty good track record against them.

 

Every player has question marks, AP just has less of them at this point.

[Upper Class Trash 67]

I think he's the best RB of this generation, but he's only finished as the #1RB in PPR once in his NFL career. He did it on a team where he had no choice but to be the only option, the only focal point of the offense. I'm not saying he can't do it again, but I think the odds are against him. I have no doubt he finishes as a top RB in fantasy circles, but.... People that rank their own players know full well if you are ranking them based on stats alone from the previous season will usually do more harm than good. He is a freak, and may be the exception to the rule, but I see several RB's in PPR I am willing to take over AP in 2014. It isn't that I think they will be "better" than AP, but I think their ceiling is higher this season due to reception numbers.

[ralphster 274]

The over/under article on DLF that Matt linked to was a good read. Stated therein were projections for 1400 some rushing yards and 12.5 TDs, with the author going under on rushing yards and over on TDs. AP is still the top option, but MIN is doing what they can to address areas of weakness to spread the ball more.

 

Getting 1400 or so + maybe 40 rec for 200 and 10-15 TDs is pretty damn good for a 1st pick. The enticing upside of Martin/Charles/Spiller would sway me in a dynasty startup, but in redraft I'd feel perfectly comfy with AP at 1.01.

[mdm_1971 0]

iagree have the 1st pick and i cant see anybody that makes more sense there.... theres always questions about any player but AP seems the most likely to finish in top 10 without question

[Djgb13 2,338]

No doubt I would still choose AP with the first pick. Like everyone said hes a safe bet to finish top 10 baring injury.

[IGotWorms 3,315]

I don't really get the people acting like Minnesota has a much-improved offense. Uh, Ponder is still their QB and he still sucks. And yeah they got Jennings, but they lost Harvin, so that's a wash at best.

[rosslive99 1]

So if you have a number 1 pick are you trying to take who you think is the best player or who is gonna finish number 1 at their position? If you are trying to do the latter I feel sorry for you, and I think that's a very daunting task to try and take on.

 

I have a 1 pick coincidentally and I'm taking AP without question. I'm not taking him expecting him to break 2k yards again, I'm not even taking him expecting him to be number 1 again. I'm taking him because he is the only RB out of the top grouping with consistent but huge production and no question marks. I love all the other guys, Martin, Spiller, Charles, Foster. But Martin is a second year player, can you seriously just pencil him in for the same production. This is the first time Spiller has ever been a starting bell cow back, can he handle it? Charles is in a new system and Foster's numbers have consistently gone down the last few years. Having said that does that mean that all these things are going to lead to their demise and they will be horrible, ofcourse not. AP has been doing this for several years at a high level in the same system he's comfortable in and with a couple of better players around him. If anything shouldn't that help him? But lets quantify this, he's got Greg Jennings, Kyle Rudolph, and Jerome Simpson...lets not act like this is Denver and the talent thats over there.

 

I think with the number 1 pick your goal should be to take the player you feel most confident about, not who has the highest ceiling, thats what picks 2 through 15 are for.

 

 

[GreenTD 56]

^^Bingo^^

[Serpent 51]

I'd rather have something like Spiller and CJ2K, but nobody is going to let you trade down so I think you just keep AP and enjoy his consistent production. He'll finish top 10 probably as a floor, and obviously has the potential to be #1.

 

In fact I put AP on the trading block in a league and all I got were stupid offers like Cecil Shorts and some other scrub for AP, or MJD and Schaub for AP.

 

If I saw a fantasy owner put AP up for trade I'd immediately offer up a legit offer to convince that person to trade me AP before they change their mind. But most fantasy owners just are incapable of making realistic offers. I probably average 3-4 trades a year and only once have I completed a trade where I thought I was winning huge on it--and that was with the other person offering it. Most of the time the trades are even or on paper I might be giving up something.

[nadnewob 1]

I agree with you. He comes back down to earth and is RB 5-10 as defenses know Ponder is a bum. I'm taking Calvin #1 but my league is full PPR.

[Matt Mueller 146]

FWIW I'm taking part in the IBL league for the first time and AP was the #2 player off the board and #1 running back in all 6 leagues.

[skinsrule05 30]

I agree with you. He comes back down to earth and is RB 5-10 as defenses know Ponder is a bum. I'm taking Calvin #1 but my league is full PPR.

 

Are you insuating that defenses couldn't figure out last year that Ponder was a bum. I guess the defensive coaches have been huddled in a room this whole off season. They finally come out and say, "yes he is a bum, lets focus on AP. He looks pretty good."

[mgs316 14]

Assuming no injury, I'll take a nice safe 1400-1500 total yards and 12+ TD's assuming his career averages and still have a player with insane upside.

[nadnewob 1]

 

Are you insuating that defenses couldn't figure out last year that Ponder was a bum. I guess the defensive coaches have been huddled in a room this whole off season. They finally come out and say, "yes he is a bum, lets focus on AP. He looks pretty good."

I believe last year was a rare case and the stars aligned for him. He got in a groove and had the best season ever for any RB. Last year was the first year AP was the RB1 in PPR, and people are chasing those stats for a 28 year old RB. He will be very good, just not the top RB as many expect. IMO

[mgs316 14]

I believe last year was a rare case and the stars aligned for him. He got in a groove and had the best season ever for any RB. Last year was the first year AP was the RB1 in PPR, and people are chasing those stats for a 28 year old RB. He will be very good, just not the top RB as many expect. IMO

 

I don't think anyone thinks he is the defacto #1 RB at year end (too many variables) but he's the safest to get you very good stats and end in the top 5-8: Improved but basically the same team, year removed from terrible knee injury, the defenses can't stack the box anymore then they did last season. His career averages excluding last season are like 1500-1600 yards and 12 TD's, not much more you can ask in this day and age of FF.

[famousb 11]

So if you have a number 1 pick are you trying to take who you think is the best player or who is gonna finish number 1 at their position? If you are trying to do the latter I feel sorry for you, and I think that's a very daunting task to try and take on.

you're goal should always be to get the player you think can perform the best based upon the pick position, and also based on value.

 

AP's value is #1 overall, but if you 'know' he's not going to end #1 overall, why make that pick when you can trade it away to someone else who will - and who is willing to pay you a small fortune in order to do so?

[mgs316 14]

So much damn talk about the #1 pick when in reality they never win you jack squat, they can only lose you the season. You win with your later round picks (Alfred Morris, etc).

 

Pick who you like.

[rosslive99 1]

you're goal should always be to get the player you think can perform the best based upon the pick position, and also based on value.

 

AP's value is #1 overall, but if you 'know' he's not going to end #1 overall, why make that pick when you can trade it away to someone else who will - and who is willing to pay you a small fortune in order to do so?

 

OK I'm not sure you said anything different than what I did except you brought value into the discussion. Which is absurd because its extremely difficult to get proper value from the #1 pick because you have about a 1/20 shot to actually pick the player who finishes number 1 in overall points, which would be the only player you could select justifiably and claim you got the value you required out of it because he performed in line with the pick. Its far easier to talk about value with say guys you take in the 7th round cause even if they perform slightly better than that ADP in line with say guys from the 6th round you can make the declaration you got good value. Its next to impossible to say that with the number 1 pick because 9 out of 10 times you're more than likely gonna see someone taken after you finish better.

 

So again as I stated above, your goal should not be to pick the player you think is going to finish 1st overall, you should pick the player you have the least amount of questions and worry with, and then move on. If he ends up at the end of the year number 1 overall, parlay that luck and go play the lottery, if he ends up in the top 5 I would say you made a great choice, top 10 still a good choice. But to argue against taking AP first cause you aren't sure hes gonna finish number 1 and then turn around and select another RB that has just as much a chance as finishing not number 1 is kinda silly.

 

As far as trading my leagues don't allow it as to avoid collusion, but if people are that scared of just making a gut call and picking the player they like the most they need to trade out of the pick so people can help make the decision for them...to each is own I guess.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I believe last year was a rare case and the stars aligned for him. He got in a groove and had the best season ever for any RB. Last year was the first year AP was the RB1 in PPR, and people are chasing those stats for a 28 year old RB. He will be very good, just not the top RB as many expect. IMO

Did you watch him run ladt year? It was unbelievable how he moved and plowed through and around defenders last year. He was an absolute beast. He wasnt just getting lucky.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

 

OK I'm not sure you said anything different than what I did except you brought value into the discussion. Which is absurd because its extremely difficult to get proper value from the #1 pick because you have about a 1/20 shot to actually pick the player who finishes number 1 in overall points, which would be the only player you could select justifiably and claim you got the value you required out of it because he performed in line with the pick. Its far easier to talk about value with say guys you take in the 7th round cause even if they perform slightly better than that ADP in line with say guys from the 6th round you can make the declaration you got good value. Its next to impossible to say that with the number 1 pick because 9 out of 10 times you're more than likely gonna see someone taken after you finish better.

 

So again as I stated above, your goal should not be to pick the player you think is going to finish 1st overall, you should pick the player you have the least amount of questions and worry with, and then move on. If he ends up at the end of the year number 1 overall, parlay that luck and go play the lottery, if he ends up in the top 5 I would say you made a great choice, top 10 still a good choice. But to argue against taking AP first cause you aren't sure hes gonna finish number 1 and then turn around and select another RB that has just as much a chance as finishing not number 1 is kinda silly.

 

As far as trading my leagues don't allow it as to avoid collusion, but if people are that scared of just making a gut call and picking the player they like the most they need to trade out of the pick so people can help make the decision for them...to each is own I guess.

You dont allow trades just to avoid collusion? Pvssy

[idiotec 31]

You dont allow trades just to avoid collusion? Pvssy

Seriously, WTF?!? Either pVssies or a bunch of paranoid assho1es who cannot trust eachother. Nice friends...

[rosslive99 1]

Seriously, WTF?!? Either pVssies or a bunch of paranoid assho1es who cannot trust eachother. Nice friends...

Nah its just highstakes online, too much money involved to chance it.

[420allstars 13]

 

Move back to 3 (Martin) or 5 (Spiller) and get your guy if at all possible. So long as you're not asking the moon for 1.01 you should find a willing partner.

 

I did exactually this in a dynasty draft we just finished.. got spiller at 1.06 and moved my 2.12 up to 2.06

 

you wont find guys kicking down your door to over pay for 1.01 but there is a deal to be made if your willing..

[420allstars 13]

Nah its just highstakes online, too much money involved to chance it.

 

that dosent seem like a very fun league?

[rosslive99 1]

 

that dosent seem like a very fun league?

Because of no trading?? I love fantasy football, I play to win money doing something I love...its fun for me.

[420allstars 13]

Because of no trading?? I love fantasy football, I play to win money doing something I love...its fun for me.

but is forfiting trading "one of my favorite things about FF" worth it to potentially win "big money"

 

seems like 9 unhappy owners who loose and a champ!

 

I would rather get 12 buddies and throw a hundo in each then get to know each other as more then just a profile picture with a strange name..

[IGotWorms 3,315]

Nah its just highstakes online, too much money involved to chance it.

Loooooser

[giraldi02 470]

He got in a groove and had the best season ever for any RB

A gentleman by the name of Eric Dickerson would disagree with you