The Iran deal

[IGotWorms 4,057]

Seems like a good thing to me but then again I haven't watched Fox News this morning (or ever, really):

 

Geneva, Switzerland (CNN) - The diplomatic gridlock between Iran and the West seemed immovable for decades. But on Sunday, diplomats made history when Iran and six world powers came together on an agreement over Iran's nuclear program.

 

The deal dials back Iran's ability to work toward a nuclear weapon and at the same time loosens the choke hold of international sanctions on Iran's economy.

 

The two sides now have six months to find out how historic the breakthrough really is. That's the duration of the preliminary agreement hammered out in Geneva, Switzerland, by Iran and the P5+1 -- the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany.

 

"There are lots of things, regrettably, that we still have to work on. Our hope is that Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Javad Zarif want to build this different relationship, want to show in clear ways as we go forward that the program is peaceful," U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry told CNN's "State of the Union."

 

The foreign policy chiefs from the nations making up the group traveled to Geneva from the United States, Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany on Saturday to pound out the last key points of the deal.

 

Iran has stumbled from one economic crisis to the next under the sanctions, and unemployment currently runs over 24%.

 

The breathing room is intended to buy Iran and the negotiating powers time to arrive at a more comprehensive agreement. But it represents an opportunity, not a guarantee.

Much more at the link... http://www.cnn.com/2013/11/24/world/meast/iran-nuclear-deal/index.html

[tikigods 76]

Israel is not happy. Their plan to manipulate the US into an Iranian war has backfired with this plan. I'm sure the media will start their campaign of anti-Iranian propaganda in the coming days, weeks, months.

 

I'm sure Hillary isn't happy...she is going to need those deep, Jewish pockets to fund her upcoming Presidential run. She'll be one of the first to complain about it.

[hoytdwow 202]

It remains to be seen if Iran is for real on this and whether or not they follow through, but it's a good start.

 

Fock Israel

[drobeski 3,061]

 

yay religion of peace !!!!! wooooooooo

[IGotWorms 4,057]

My concern is will our allies really have the resolve to ratchet the sanctions back up if Iran reneges on the deal? If they do have that resolve then I really see no downside. Not guaranteed to work but it's a far-cry better than just going straight to war.

 

Ironically, we do know that the central part of the deal--UN weapons inspections--can work, because it worked in Iraq.

[Vikings4ever 549]

I think it's a wait and see thing.

 

Will Iran follow North Korea's lead of promising to stop their nuclear program, only to go back on their word when they get the concessions they want?

 

Ultimately, the biggest threat (to the US) from Iran's nuclear program isn't a nuclear missile, it's the funneling of nuclear material to terrorist groups for a dirty bomb. Which appears to still be possible under the deal.

 

So the deal isn't a bad thing, nor is it a guarantee of security.

[Recliner Pilot 61]

One take on it.

 

Abject Surrender by the United States What does Israel do now?

Negotiations for an “interim” arrangement over Iran’s nuclear weapons program finally succeeded this past weekend, as Security Council foreign ministers (plus Germany) flew to Geneva to meet their Iranian counterpart. After raising expectations of a deal by first convening on November 8-10, it would have been beyond humiliating to gather again without result. So agreement was struck despite solemn incantations earlier that “no deal is better than a bad deal.”

 

This interim agreement is badly skewed from America’s perspective. Iran retains its full capacity to enrich uranium, thus abandoning a decade of Western insistence and Security Council resolutions that Iran stop all uranium-enrichment activities. Allowing Iran to continue enriching, and despite modest (indeed, utterly inadequate) measures to prevent it from increasing its enriched-uranium stockpiles and its overall nuclear infrastructure, lays the predicate for Iran fully enjoying its “right” to enrichment in any “final” agreement. Indeed, the interim agreement itself acknowledges that a “comprehensive solution” will “involve a mutually defined enrichment program.” This is not, as the Obama administration leaked before the deal became public, a “compromise” on Iran’s claimed “right” to enrichment. This is abject surrender by the United States.

In exchange for superficial concessions, Iran achieved three critical breakthroughs. First, it bought time to continue all aspects of its nuclear-weapons program the agreement does not cover (centrifuge manufacturing and testing; weaponization research and fabrication; and its entire ballistic missile program). Indeed, given that the interim agreement contemplates periodic renewals, Iran may have gained all of the time it needs to achieve weaponization not of simply a handful of nuclear weapons, but of dozens or more.

 

Second, Iran has gained legitimacy. This central banker of international terrorism and flagrant nuclear proliferator is once again part of the international club. Much as the Syria chemical-weapons agreement buttressed Bashar al-Assad, the mullahs have escaped the political deep freezer.

Third, Iran has broken the psychological momentum and effect of the international economic sanctions. While estimates differ on Iran’s precise gain, it is considerable ($7 billion is the lowest estimate), and presages much more. Tehran correctly assessed that a mere six-months’ easing of sanctions will make it extraordinarily hard for the West to reverse direction, even faced with systematic violations of Iran’s nuclear pledges. Major oil-importing countries (China, India, South Korea, and others) were already chafing under U.S. sanctions, sensing President Obama had no stomach either to impose sanctions on them, or pay the domestic political price of granting further waivers.

Benjamin Netanyahu’s earlier warning that this was “the deal of the century” for Iran has unfortunately been vindicated. Given such an inadequate deal, what motivated Obama to agree? The inescapable conclusion is that, the mantra notwithstanding, the White House actually did prefer a bad deal to the diplomatic process grinding to a halt. This deal was a “hail Mary” to buy time. Why?

Buying time for its own sake makes sense in some negotiating contexts, but the sub silentio objective here was to jerry-rig yet another argument to wield against Israel and its fateful decision whether or not to strike Iran. Obama, fearing that strike more than an Iranian nuclear weapon, clearly needed greater international pressure on Jerusalem. And Jerusalem fully understands that Israel was the real target of the Geneva negotiations. How, therefore, should Israel react?

Most importantly, the deal leaves the basic strategic realities unchanged. Iran’s nuclear program was, from its inception, a weapons program, and it remains one today. Even modest constraints, easily and rapidly reversible, do not change that fundamental political and operational reality. And while some already-known aspects of Iran’s nuclear program are returned to enhanced scrutiny, the undeclared and likely unknown military work will continue to expand, thus recalling the drunk looking for his lost car keys under the street lamp because of the better lighting.

 

Moreover, the international climate of opinion against a strike will only harden during the next six months. Capitalizing on the deal, Iran’s best strategy is to accelerate the apparent pace of rapprochement with the all-too-eager West. The further and faster Iran can move, still making only superficial, easily reversible concessions in exchange for dismantling the sanctions regime, the greater the international pressure against Israel using military force. Iran will not suddenly, Ahmadinejad-style, openly defy Washington or Jerusalem and trumpet cheating and violations. Instead, Tehran will go to extraordinary lengths to conceal its activities, working for example in new or unknown facilities and with North Korea, or shaving its compliance around the edges. The more time that passes, the harder it will be for Israel to deliver a blow that substantially retards the Iranian program.

Undoubtedly, an Israeli strike during the interim deal would be greeted with outrage from all the expected circles. But that same outrage, or more, would also come further down the road. In short, measured against the expected reaction even in friendly capitals, there is never a “good” time for an Israeli strike, only bad and worse times. Accordingly, the Geneva deal does not change Israel’s strategic calculus even slightly, unless the Netanyahu government itself falls prey to the psychological warfare successfully waged so far by the ayatollahs. That we will know only as the days unfold.

Israel still must make the extremely difficult judgment whether it will stand by as Iran maneuvers effortlessly around a feckless and weak White House, bolstering its economic situation while still making progress on the nuclear front, perhaps less progress on some aspects of its nuclear work than before the deal, but more on others.

 

And what can critics of the Geneva deal, in Washington and other Western capitals, do? They can try to advance the sanctions legislation pending in the Senate over administration objections, for the political symbolism if nothing else. Unfortunately, they’re unlikely to succeed over the administration’s near-certain opposition. Tehran judges correctly that they have Obama obediently moving in their direction, with the European Union straining at the bit for still-more relaxation of the sanctions regimes.

Instead, those opposing Obama’s “Munich moment” in Geneva (to borrow a Kerry phrase from the Syrian crisis), should focus on the larger and more permanent strategic problem: A terrorist, nuclear Iran still threatens American interests and allies, and almost certainly means widespread nuclear proliferation across the Middle East. A nuclear Iran would also be essentially invulnerable, providing a refuge that al Qaeda leaders hiding in Afghan and Pakistani caves could only dream of.

So in truth, an Israeli military strike is the only way to avoid Tehran’s otherwise inevitable march to nuclear weapons, and the proliferation that will surely follow. Making the case for Israel’s exercise of its legitimate right of self-defense has therefore never been more politically important. Whether they are celebrating in Tehran or in Jerusalem a year from now may well depend on how the opponents of the deal in Washington conduct themselves.

 

 

 

 

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/abject-surrender-united-states_768140.html?page=1

[tikigods 76]

I think it's a wait and see thing.

 

Will Iran follow North Korea's lead of promising to stop their nuclear program, only to go back on their word when they get the concessions they want?

 

Ultimately, the biggest threat (to the US) from Iran's nuclear program isn't a nuclear missile, it's the funneling of nuclear material to terrorist groups for a dirty bomb. Which appears to still be possible under the deal.

 

So the deal isn't a bad thing, nor is it a guarantee of security.

 

This.

[kozmiq 70]

Taking any politics out of it, I don't like it.

The Sanctions were working or Iran would not have wanted top come to the Table.

So for 6 months Iran sells their Oil, makes enough money to begin their efforts to gain Nuclear capacity again and we're right back where we started BEFORE the Sanctions.

I don't like it.

When you have an enemy down; don't let them up with just promises.

[Geezil 24]

Let Israel and Saudi Arabia take care of the problem if they don't like the terms of this deal. The USA is tired of being their mercenaries.

 

Also, maybe Bibi will learn how to speak to our president in the future. I don't think Obama cared for his tone recently.

[NorthernVike 2,083]

Israel is not happy. Their plan to manipulate the US into an Iranian war has backfired with this plan. I'm sure the media will start their campaign of anti-Iranian propaganda in the coming days, weeks, months.

 

I'm sure Hillary isn't happy...she is going to need those deep, Jewish pockets to fund her upcoming Presidential run. She'll be one of the first to complain about it.

 

It remains to be seen if Iran is for real on this and whether or not they follow through, but it's a good start.

 

Fock Israel

 

 

It's scary when I acree with tiki and hoytd.

[DankNuggs 305]

They get $7 bil and play pretend compliance, and John Kerry fellates himself.

[DankNuggs 305]

Taking any politics out of it, I don't like it.

The Sanctions were working or Iran would not have wanted top come to the Table.

So for 6 months Iran sells their Oil, makes enough money to begin their efforts to gain Nuclear capacity again and we're right back where we started BEFORE the Sanctions.

I don't like it.

When you have an enemy down; don't let them up with just promises.

We gave them real, tangible results and got promises in the future returns.

[DankNuggs 305]

Takes 2-4 weeks according to the article to make weapons grade stuff from the stuff we are allowing.

[Recliner Pilot 61]

For the first time we acknowledge Iran has a right to enrich uranium, we lift sanctions, Iran says that some time in the future they may agree to something.....

 

 

Saudi Arabia.....pi$$ed.

 

Israel.......pi$$ed

 

Iran.........Declaring victory.

 

 

Looks like Obama got rolled again.

[NewbieJr 541]

Nobel Peace Price winner, Bitches!

[TimmySmith 2,782]

They get $7 bil and play pretend compliance, and John Kerry fellates himself.

Obama got to give money to his Muslim brothers and piss off the Israelis at the same time. He'll probably play 36 today.

[drobeski 3,061]

Nobel Peace Price winner, Bitches!

Bet you have a shelf full of powder puff participation trophies that you're really proud of.

[NewbieJr 541]

Bet you have a shelf full of powder puff participation trophies that you're really proud of.

good one

[drobeski 3,061]

good one

I know :highfive:

[Recliner Pilot 61]

The Dems pull out the Nuclear Option, and then let Iran roll them with an agreement just to distract the press and public away from the Obamacare clusterfukk.

 

What's next?

[patweisers44 840]

They get $7 bil and play pretend compliance, and John Kerry fellates himself.

The long face is good for something apparently.

[IGotWorms 4,057]

For the first time we acknowledge Iran has a right to enrich uranium, we lift sanctions, Iran says that some time in the future they may agree to something.....

 

 

Saudi Arabia.....pi$$ed.

Maybe you and the royal family need to get on the same page?

 

Saudi Arabia said the interim deal could be a step towards a comprehensive solution.

 

"The government of the kingdom (of Saudi Arabia) ... sees that if there was goodwill, this agreement could represent a preliminary step towards a comprehensive solution to the Iranian nuclear programme if that led to the removal of weapons of mass destruction, especially nuclear weapons, from the Middle East and the Arab Gulf region," the cabinet said in a statement carried by state news agency SPA, according to Reuters.

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/11/25/21604662-oil-prices-fall-shares-rise-in-wake-of-iran-nuclear-deal

 

[TimmySmith 2,782]

"We, in no way shape or form, recognize your right to enrich Uranium, but since we know you do, here is a boatload of cash along with a "pretty please" to stop doing it. Now if you excuse me, I have to start vilifying Congress to prevent any oversight"

 

-John Kerry-

 

 

 

I see no flaws in this strategy and I seriously doubt any other country will try this method to extort money from the U.S.

[edjr 6,580]

Do you guys really give a sh1t about this, or is just another way for you to get your political sissy slap fight on?

[Recliner Pilot 61]

Maybe you and the royal family need to get on the same page?

 

 

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/11/25/21604662-oil-prices-fall-shares-rise-in-wake-of-iran-nuclear-deal

 

 

 

Seems like we are.

 

We both see thru the smoke and mirrors. "Intentions" do not equal results.

 

HTH

 

 

 

A senior advisor to the Saudi royal family has accused its Western allies of deceiving the oil rich kingdom in striking the nuclear accord with Iran and said Riyadh would follow an independent foreign policy.

Nawaf Obaid told a think tank meeting in London that Saudi Arabia was determined to pursue its own foreign and policy goals. Having in the past been reactive to events, the leading Sunni Muslim nation was determined to be pro-active in future.

Mr Obaid said that while Saudi Arabia knew that the US was talking directly to Iran through a channel in the Gulf state of Oman, Washington had not directly briefed its ally.

"We were lied to, things were hidden from us," he said. "The problem is not with the deal struck in Geneva but how it was done."

 

In a statement the Saudi government gave a cautious welcome to the Geneva nuclear deal. It said "good intentions" could lead to a comprehensive agreement on Tehran's atomic programme. "This agreement could be a first step towards a comprehensive solution for Iran's nuclear programme, if there are good intentions," the Saudi government said

But it warned that a comprehensive solution should lead to the "removal of all weapons of mass destruction, especially nuclear, from the Middle East and the Gulf".

A fellow of Harvard University's Belfer Centre and adviser to Prince Mohammad, the Saudi ambassador to London, Mr Obaid said Saudi Arabia would continue to resist Iranian involvement in the Syrian civil war. In particular he pointed to Iranian Revolutionary Guards involvement in battles in Syria on behalf of the regime.

 

"[saudi Arabia] will be there to stop them wherever they are in Arab countries," he said. "We cannot accept Revolutionary Guards running round Homs."

Saudi Arabia's fury at the diplomatic detente with Iran is commonly held with Israel. While both countries are in the same posion Saudi Arabia disavows any suggestion of an open alliance. Until the Palestinians have a state, Saudi Arabia will not work with Israel.

Saudi Arabia is increasingly at odds with Washington over Syria. It rejected a seat on the UN Security Council in protest at the body's failure to "save" Syria.

Qatar is the latest Gulf Arab state to welcome the nuclear deal between Iran and world powers, calling it a step toward greater stability in the region.

Saudi Arabia, has previously expressed unease about US overtures to Iran. The dialogue helped pushed along efforts by Washington and others to strike a deal with Iran seeking to ease Western concerns that Tehran could move toward nuclear weapons.

 

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/10472538/Iran-nuclear-deal-Saudi-Arabia-warns-it-will-strike-out-on-its-own.html

[Recliner Pilot 61]

Do you guys really give a sh1t about this, or is just another way for you to get your political sissy slap fight on?

Mebbe you should find another bored more suited to your needs.

[IGotWorms 4,057]

Do you guys really give a sh1t about this, or is just another way for you to get your political sissy slap fight on?

I care, it's an important international issue.

 

RP et al just want a slapfight. I'm not partaking except to correct RP's misinformation.

[TimmySmith 2,782]

Do you guys really give a sh1t about this, or is just another way for you to get your political sissy slap fight on?

Do ya think we just opened the door to being the eternal wet-nurse to another country that hates our guts?

[Recliner Pilot 61]

I care, it's an important international issue.

 

RP et al just want a slapfight. I'm not partaking except to correct RP's misinformation.

 

 

Seems I was dead nutz on saying Saudi Arabia is pi$$ed over this.

 

My link proves that, so you didn't correct squat, Sparky.

[edjr 6,580]

I care, it's an important international issue.

 

RP et al just want a slapfight. I'm not partaking except to correct RP's misinformation.

 

That's a full time job, where do you find the time?

[edjr 6,580]

Do ya think we just opened the door to being the eternal wet-nurse to another country that hates our guts?

 

Maybe the crazy coot Ron Paul was on to something with his foreign policy as well as many other things?

[IGotWorms 4,057]

 

 

Seems I was dead nutz on saying Saudi Arabia is pi$$ed over this.

 

My link proves that, so you didn't correct squat, Sparky.

 

You're posting a bunch of bullsh!t links from anonymous (probably fake) sources. I posted a quote direct from the government saying they're on board. You decide which is entitled to more weight

[Recliner Pilot 61]

 

You're posting a bunch of bullsh!t links from anonymous (probably fake) sources. I posted a quote direct from the government saying they're on board. You decide which is entitled to more weight

Apparently, you have no idea what "anonymous" means, as the source is named in my link.

 

Here is my source:

 

 

Nawaf Obaid is a visiting fellow at the Belfer Center for 2013-2014.

Currently, he is a counselor to both Prince Mohammad bin Nawaf, Saudi ambassador to the United Kingdom, and Prince Turki Al Faisal, who served as Saudi ambassador to the United States and was the longtime director of Saudi Arabia’s intelligence service.

 

 

 

From YOUR op:

 

"The Saudi government has been very concerned about these negotiations with Iran and unhappy at the prospect of a deal with Iran," a Saudi government official who is not authorized to speak to the media told CNN.

 

 

From your second link:

 

 

"The government of the kingdom (of Saudi Arabia) ... sees that if there was goodwill, this agreement could represent a preliminary step towards a comprehensive solution to the Iranian nuclear programme if that led to the removal of weapons of mass destruction, especially nuclear weapons, from the Middle East and the Arab Gulf region," the cabinet said in a statement carried by state news agency SPA, according to Reuters.

 

 

 

 

So, the Saudi cabinet released a statement with a lot of qualifiers and said any comprehensive agreement would have to get rid of nuclear weapons in the ME. You think Iran will go along with that?

 

What a dumbass.

[Recliner Pilot 61]

 

The United States released $8 billion in frozen assets to Iran on Sunday in a move meant to ensure Tehran’s compliance with a nuclear pact signed over the weekend, according to top Iranian officials

 

 

Looks like they are already getting paid off.

 

 

http://freebeacon.com/reports-u-s-unfreezes-8-billion-in-iranian-assets/

[NewbieJr 541]

 
The Washington Free Beacon, a project of the 501(c)4 Center for 
American Freedom, is a nonprofit online newspaper that began publication on 
February 7, 2012. Dedicated to uncovering the stories that the professional left 
hopes will never see the light of day

Thank God we have agenda-free folks like this shedding the true, balanced stories to the American public.

[Phurfur 70]

 

Iranians cheer nuclear negotiators at airport

 

TEHRAN, Iran – Hundreds of cheering supporters greeted Iran's nuclear negotiators as they arrived back to Tehran late Sunday night.

The crowd, mostly young students, called both Iran's foreign minister and its top nuclear negotiator "the Ambassador of Peace." They carried flowers and Iranian flags. Among them were the families of slain nuclear scientists, as well as lawmakers and other officials.

 

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/11/25/iranian-supporters-await-nuclear-negotiators-at-airport/

 

[Recliner Pilot 61]

http://tehrantimes.com/economy-and-business/112339-iran-confirms-8b-of-blocked-assets-released-after-nuclear-deal

[Phurfur 70]

What a bunch of Morons!

[IGotWorms 4,057]

I'm not surprised some of you guys have totally missed what's going on here as you have proven time and again that you are incapable of understanding nuance. Many people in Iran, especially the younger generation, do not really like what is going on in that country and think that they should work with, not against, the West. They also want more personal freedoms and the like. So when those sorts of people are cheering the result, it is not necessarily a bad thing.

 

But the RPs and Phurfurs of the world can't see that because anything Iran = automatically bad in their view. They don't even hesitate to ask themselves whether any nation could really be made up 100% of bad people.