Who are you gambling on this year?

[cnasty 5]

As the title states, who are you going to jump on earlier than everyone else? If I've learned anything while playing FF, it's that you have to stay ahead of the trends. Most people were drafting ADP #1 overall last year, I took a chance on JC (receiving a ton of backlash) and it paid off.

 

In response to the question asked, I'm thinking about taking a shot at Spiller this year. Bills were #2 in rush attempts last year and I don't see that changing much this year. HeII, could be more. In a 16 team league, CJ will probably land to me @ 15 and I'm going to draft him there, while probably gambling on the oft injured DeMarco at the top of the 2nd.

 

Another guy I would normally like (especially in PPR leagues) would be Andre Ellington. Problem is, his divisions is just nasty this year. It's hard to justify taking a gamble on a RB who plays in a division with 3 of the league's best defenses.

 

At any rate, what say you?

[weepaws 2,460]

I think the bills will pass more then last season they did go and get both Watkins and M Williams . Plus they did sign B Brown from the Eagles so it looks like a three headed back field to me that's less work for everyone

[rholio 339]

QB- Jay Cutler, RG III

 

RB- Bishop Sankey

 

WR- Kendall Wright, Mike Wallace, Jericho Cotchery

[cnasty 5]

QB- Jay Cutler, RG III

 

RB- Bishop Sankey

 

WR- Kendall Wright, Mike Wallace, Jericho Cotchery

 

 

I like Cutler a lot this year. I will be targeting Wright as well.

[tanatastic 2,061]

You def need to stay ahead of the game. Last year I took Mcoy 4th overall and people still snickered. Then I took Lacy in the 3rd and was met with outright chides and laughter. Naturally as is the case pretty much every year, my drafts end up being the whos who of the first few rounds the following year. All that said, I havent ranked my players yet, I just wanted to brag.

[Matt Mueller 146]

I don't have too many flag players yet.

 

Guys I do like at their ADP:

 

Ryan-Cutler at QB.

 

Roddy at WR.

[Big Dog NJ 11]

luv both cutler and stafford at qb ; p. thomas (ppr) and jennings at RB and crabtree at wr

[snatchit 108]

Haven't been that lucky lately ... Had a good run there for a few years.. Having people laugh at me getting Foster and Ray Rice in the 4th and 5th round in there break out year. There was also noticing Javohn Walker, Marshall and Jennings their break out years... Just a few off the top of my head.. Like I said its been awhile since I have struck real gold

[vrabinec 19]

Golden Tate - He's going to an offense that throws the ball 50% more than where he came from, and he'll now be matched up against the opponent's 2nd corner instead of the first.

 

Kenny Stills - Colston's getting old, Moore is gone, Sproles is gone. Brees will find him for a lot of big plays.

 

Cody Latimer - He's running with the first team in Denver, not Sanders. That's good enough for me.

 

Tony Romo - A new OC who likes to throw it even more than the one he had before.

 

Leveon Bell - He's got Munchak coaching his offensive line now, so they'll go to the zone blocking scheme which is much better suited to his cutback style than what they ran last year. I think he puts up 1800-2000 total yards.

 

Khiri Robinson - I think the Mark Ingram thing is over in NO. Robinson is a better back, and he can catch, so Pierre isn't gonna be stealing as many touches.

 

Jake Locker - It's a risk with his health issues, but he's a hell of a QB when he's on the field.

[Mr Neil 63]

"Cody Latimer - He's running with the first team in Denver, not Sanders. That's good enough for me."

Where is this info coming from? I haven't heard much about Latimer. I went to IU and he was an absolute beast when he was there

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

My sarcastic answer is "all the players I draft for my teams"...

 

I guess my real answer is I'm gambling on Cordarelle. Lots of people think his adp is inflated and maybe it is but after the sure fire studs, I really love his upside and situation

 

 

Oh Marvin jones

[Upper Class Trash 67]

As the title states, who are you going to jump on earlier than everyone else? If I've learned anything while playing FF, it's that you have to stay ahead of the trends. Most people were drafting ADP #1 overall last year, I took a chance on JC (receiving a ton of backlash) and it paid off.

 

In response to the question asked, I'm thinking about taking a shot at Spiller this year. Bills were #2 in rush attempts last year and I don't see that changing much this year. HeII, could be more. In a 16 team league, CJ will probably land to me @ 15 and I'm going to draft him there, while probably gambling on the oft injured DeMarco at the top of the 2nd.

 

Another guy I would normally like (especially in PPR leagues) would be Andre Ellington. Problem is, his divisions is just nasty this year. It's hard to justify taking a gamble on a RB who plays in a division with 3 of the league's best defenses.

 

At any rate, what say you?

DeMarco Murray? Unless you are drafting with fools, he won't be available at the top of the 2nd. Again, more reasons I hate ADP this time of year. He has been going between the 6th overall pick and the 11th in my redrafts. These aren't mocks, they are live, real, drafts. CJ has been falling to the late 2nd, but with the rumors abounding that he will see 20 carries per game, he will begin moving up the board as well. I think his value this season will come on passing downs. In space, he's great. If they keep trying to pound him up the middle, like they did early last season, he's not going to last. I was a Spiller owner last season and was disgusted by how they used him. They didn't differentiate between he and Jackson. Spiller can't take the beating, so using him in space only makes sense. They didn't do it though..... I hope they learned.

[Upper Class Trash 67]

"Cody Latimer - He's running with the first team in Denver, not Sanders. That's good enough for me."

Where is this info coming from? I haven't heard much about Latimer. I went to IU and he was an absolute beast when he was there

Latimer isn't going to get the nod over Sanders. He's playing for a HC who is known for sitting rookies. Look at his history. If you are counting on Cody L., you had better hope one of the other three gets injured and they put Cody in the slot. If not, he's not doing much. If he is currently running with the first team, it's only to preserve the Vets. Don't read too much into it.

[vrabinec 19]

One of many articles about Latimer working with the first team:

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/denver-broncos/post/_/id/7013/minicamp-gives-best-look-at-latimer-so-far

 

Latimer is 6'2 215, Sanders is 5'11 180,

Latimer runs a 4.39, Sanders runs a 4.41

Latimer is strong, Sanders doesn't fight for the ball like he should.

Sanders caught the ball LESS than 60% of the time he was targeted.

In the last 8 games last year when the Steelers scored 231 points, a pace that would have them score 462 points over 16 games, which would put them second only to Denver last year in points scored, in that stretch, Sanders caught 30 balls for 246 yards, an 8.2 yards per reception average.

 

Sanders is not a first team guy. He is a slot guy. A 3rd receiver, at best. In Denver's offense, he's a 4th receiver. He got a 3 year deal, which means they have him for the time that Latimer will be cheap, and then he's gone, a nice bit of cap planning. Meantime, Latimer will be the man opposite Thomas. They may not do it from the first play of the first game, but he'll be there by the end of the first game,, and for the rest of the season.

[tanatastic 2,061]

DeMarco Murray? Unless you are drafting with fools, he won't be available at the top of the 2nd.

No chance id draft that brittle bum in the 1st round. Id even be shaky with him as my RB2 even. Hes the DMC of the nfc, yearly fools good.

[vrabinec 19]

"Fools gold" had 1500 yards last year. I'll take that kind of fools gold any day. Just make sure you take the handcuff, if you have a deep bench.

[tanatastic 2,061]

My sarcastic answer is "all the players I draft for my teams"...

This answer is actually closer to the truth than most would think.

 

"Fools gold" had 1500 yards last year. I'll take that kind of fools gold any day. Just make sure you take the handcuff, if you have a deep bench.

Maybe im being too hard on the guy, ill admit. End of the year numbers are great but when you play russian roulette with 16 games, just hope the 2-4 missed games dont fall on important weeks for you.

[cnasty 5]

One thing I'm always a little leary on is drafting rookie WRs. For whatever reason, it seems to take a year or two for them to get fully acclimated to the NFL speed. I think, since 2006, only 3 guys have gotten 1000+ yards (Colston, AJ Green, and Keenan Allen) and it looks like the average might be about 875-900 yds for a great rookie WR.

 

Just something to consider when you go into these things.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Latimer will be the man opposite Thomas. They may not do it from the first play of the first game, but he'll be there by the end of the first game,, and for the rest of the season.

 

I think Latimer will be the opposite Thomas long term with Sanders moving to the slot and Welker moving on.....but that whole statement seems like a lot to make out of a report that Latimer got some work in redzone 3 WR sets.

[Matt Mueller 146]

^ Just a pet peeve but that 60% catch rate sounds worse that is is.

 

Calvin had a 54% rate last year. J Gordon 55% Eddie Royal 70%

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr2013

 

 

FWIW, absolutely nothing IMO, I found this about E. Saunders drop rate:

 

- Has good hands and doesn't drop the ball often, had a lower drop percentage last year than DT, Eric Decker and Wes Welker. On short passes, especially outside fades, he has a solid skills when it comes to pin pointing the pass and then making the jump and catch on the outside shoulder.

 

 

 

The bottom line to me is that we just don't know yet. Big Ben to Peyton is about as different a QB style as you can have. Ben loves to hold onto the ball, improvise and hit someone possibly already open....Manning's game now is all timing and reads.

[vrabinec 19]

Yeah, but those guys were going deep. Sanders was running underneath routes and they had Brown running the deep stuff (and Cotchery later). Sanders' percentage should have been much better. I don't care if anyone goes and grabs him. Have at it. But I'm a Steeler fan and I saw every minute of every game. I can't talk about every player in the NFL because I don't see them all the time, but I saw Sanders week in and week out. Ask any Steeler fan. And it's not because we're "bitter' that he left.

 

Sanders had 67 catches for 756 yards and 6 TDs last year on a team that was desperate for a receiver. He was a pro at the top of his game. Going to Denver isn't going to suddenly double his numbers.

 

Here are some rookie numbers BESIDES the big ones everyone talks about:

Deandre Hopkins 52 catches 802 yards 2 TDs

Robert Woods 40 catches 587 yards 3 TDs

Aaron Dobson 37 catches 519 yards 4 TDs

Kenny Stills 32 catches 641 yards 5 TDs

M. Floyd 45 catches 562 yards 2 TDs

Wright 64 catches 626 yards 4 TDs

Hilton 50 catches 861 yards 7 TDs

Givens 42 catches 698 yards 3 TDs

Julio Jones 54 catches 959 yards 8 TDs

Torrey Smith 50 catches 841 yards 7 TDs

Bryant 45 catches 561 yards 6 TDs

Crabtree 48 catches 625 yards 2 TDs

Harvin 60 catches 790 yards 6 TDs

Nicks 47 catches 790 yards 6 TDs

Britt 42 catches 701 yards 3 TDs

D-Jax 62 catches 912 yards 2 TDs

 

Those are receivers who had solid rookie seasons. Whenever I hear a rookie playing for a team like Denver that needs a WR and has one that is as pedestrian as Sanders is "starting" a rookie in ANY situation, I envision these kinds of numbers immediately. Add to that, that this kid is from a school with high academic standards, and therefore probably remembers more of the playbook than the typical dope playing receiver, I figure the kid's got the potential to put up some nice numbers. Whoever drafts Sanders may be happy they got him in games 1-4, but I'm betting that, whoever drafts Latimer will be happy the rest of the season.

[snatchit 108]

No chance id draft that brittle bum in the 1st round. Id even be shaky with him as my RB2 even. Hes the DMC of the nfc, yearly fools good.

he was the 6 th best RB last year. He missed 2 games. The 1st couple of years he had injurys that could happen to anyone. Shaky # 2 ??? I wish you were in my league

[snatchit 108]

Romo with great weapons, Oline and a OC that throws a ton. Mix in a D that will let teams score at will spells Money

[tanatastic 2,061]

he was the 6 th best RB last year. He missed 2 games. The 1st couple of years he had injurys that could happen to anyone. Shaky # 2 ??? I wish you were in my league

He's a good talented rb on a good offense so I'll admit he's a fine rb2. I try not to get caught up in year end positional ranks. I understand he missed 2 games but numbers can be twisted however you want. I could say he had the same points as cj2k, and he had 10 points more than Fred Jackson, wich are both true. Sounds worse than "he was the no.6 rb".

 

I'll admit he's better than I'm giving credit for, but i wouldn't spend a 1st rnd pick on him despite the top 12 finish last year. I only draft rbs that I feel will challenge for the top few spots in rb scoring. Even my rb 2 has to be a top 5 possibility. Sounds crazy? Last year I drafted McCoy and Lacy. Murray is just a guy who will predictably disappear for a few games, get hurt for a few games, finish with a nice comfy year end statline and prob cost me more games than he will win for me. He's pretty much the same guy as Ryan Mathews to me (the scored within 10pnts of each other last year so it's not that far fetched.).

[Djgb13 2,338]

I like Murray as well but I don't know if I would draft him first round. The guy I plan on gambling with is DMC. I know it sounds crazy but if he can stay healthy he at least has some talent. You can easily get him in rounds 10-13 which is a nice spot to gamble with. Wouldn't start him at all until he proved drafting him was smart. If he doesn't produce then you didn't really lose anything

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I would rather gamble on letavius murray in one of the last rounds.

 

Murray has top 5 potential as much as any rb drafted after charles, mccoy, ap, forte.

[rholio 339]

I like Murray as well but I don't know if I would draft him first round. The guy I plan on gambling with is DMC. I know it sounds crazy but if he can stay healthy he at least has some talent. You can easily get him in rounds 10-13 which is a nice spot to gamble with. Wouldn't start him at all until he proved drafting him was smart. If he doesn't produce then you didn't really lose anything

 

Seems like I've heard this before... last year, the year before, the year before that... somewhere in there. Me, I'm thinking MJD is the RB to own there.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

This answer is actually closer to the truth than most would think.

It's 100% true technically. all my players i draft will be guys i jumped on before anyone else otherwise they would be on someone elses roster

[tanatastic 2,061]

 

Seems like I've heard this before... last year, the year before, the year before that... somewhere in there. Me, I'm thinking MJD is the RB to own there.

They both are good values that late in a draft. Its just always sucked when the DMC hype cost you a 1st or 2nd rnd pick.

[Patmos 2]

"Cody Latimer - He's running with the first team in Denver, not Sanders. That's good enough for me."

Where is this info coming from? I haven't heard much about Latimer. I went to IU and he was an absolute beast when he was there

Latimer was held out of OTA's due to his recovery from injury...

[Breesman32 11]

I probably would jump on Patterson.

[Djgb13 2,338]

They both are good values that late in a draft. Its just always sucked when the DMC hype cost you a 1st or 2nd rnd pick.

MJD has actually been going relatively early in the draft. Too early for me. You can get DMC in rounds 10-13 while MJD is usually 5-7. Ive got more valuable picks where MJD is being taken than where DMC is. Haven't has him at all during fantasy football cause he was injury prone and you had to take him in rounds 1-3. Now is a diff story and if he plays all year and is healthy I think he would be the best pick in the late rounds

[BigMilk 40]

MJD has ulcerative colitis and a Taco Bell addiction. DND.

[Matt Mueller 146]

MJD appeared on one of the recent CBS podcasts.

 

Seemed in really good spirits to be back in Oakland an area he grew up.

 

Hired a nutritionist, did a bunch of off season work ect

[tanatastic 2,061]

Alfred Morris. Will bounce back and by this time next year we will all have him as a top half of rnd 1 RB.

[Djgb13 2,338]

CJ Spiller anyone? He can be had as your RB3 in some leagues or a RB2. This time last year he was a 1st round pick. Don't see FJax having anything left in the tank and Spiller was also playing with a high ankle sprain last year. Think he turns it up this year

[Matt Mueller 146]

CJ Spiller anyone? He can be had as your RB3 in some leagues or a RB2. This time last year he was a 1st round pick. Don't see FJax having anything left in the tank and Spiller was also playing with a high ankle sprain last year. Think he turns it up this year

No doubt a value play. The thing I wonder about most is the redzone .

 

Now last year might have just been a lost year but his 2 tds came from 36 and 54 yards.

 

I just wonder if he'll get any redzone work with FJax and B. Brown...

 

 

If someone wants to dig into his 2012 numbers....let me know about redzone tds. If not I'm sure I'll do it eventually .

[BobSanders_33 127]

MJD appeared on one of the recent CBS podcasts.

 

Seemed in really good spirits to be back in Oakland an area he grew up.

 

Hired a nutritionist, did a bunch of off season work ect

 

I've also heard him talk this off season and he sounds like you average athlete that still thinks he is on the top of his games. He called DMC one of the best young backs in the game and then raved about the Raiders' OL and WR. Not buying it at all.

 

ADP could change significantly before the draft but players that I value and am targeting far in front of their ADP would be Gronk, SJax and Freeman, and Brandin Cooks.

[Matt Mueller 146]

^ Oh no doubt. He also hosts a Sirius fantasy show.

 

They asked him who he ranks #1 overall at rb and he was like well...I gotta go with myself.

[fanfootballtn 33]

Surprised that no one said Brandin Cooks. I think he will get rookie of the year. No way you can stop Jimmy Graham on one side and Brandin on the other side in the slot. The Saints wouldn't have let Sproles go without a plan especially when they knew they had to deal with Jimmy Graham's contract. They traded up in the draft to get the fastest guy and Brees is all about timing. They mentioned in an article that the Saints will have 4 guaranteed plays for him every game. In addition, Brees has been practicing dropping back and lobbing the ball over the defense for Cooks to go and get it. This is the guy to gamble on especially in a ppr or keeper league. Might wanna look at this to see how the Saints might use him.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYr5OLsZDps