Top 12 QB - Newton in or out?

[Boilermaker04 11]

I think it's too simple to say his legs get him there this season...

 

Line has major changes, 3 new faces, making it an unknown. Blind side not improved.

Running backs same as last year....

Receiving options taking a step back.

 

I want to justify drafting Cam but am struggling finding upside. Thoughts? Am I over reacting?

[Matt Mueller 146]

I totally agree tons of questions. The WR core is worse and he's coming off ankle surgery. I haven't been excited thinking about him at all.

 

I was listening to a CBS podcast the other day and they said something that hit home a little.

 

It went something like:

 

'How many years has Cam been in the league?'

 

'3'

 

'How many times has he finished as a top 5 QB?

 

'3'

 

'Why are we ranking him outside the top 12?'

 

'

[rholio 339]

I totally agree tons of questions. The WR core is worse and he's coming off ankle surgery. I haven't been excited thinking about him at all.

 

I was listening to a CBS podcast the other day and they said something that hit home a little.

 

It went something like:

 

'How many years has Cam been in the league?'

 

'3'

 

'How many times has he finished as a top 5 QB?

 

'3'

 

'Why are we ranking him outside the top 12?'

 

'

This.

[weepaws 2,460]

Not a top 12 qb for me at this time . Just way to many questions about that team .

[tanatastic 2,061]

People are crazy for not including Cam in the top 7 let alone top 12. What is so bad about te team that hasn't been te case in past years? Old ass Steve smith is gone? That's just going to open up a chance for someone else to step up and make a name. The crap panthers go 12-4 and people are acting like Cam has already fallen off. What does the guy need to do? He's yet to have a bad fantasy season and is only growing as a player and qb. It's almost too easy to predict a top 5 fantasy finish for Cam regardless of how the team around him is. He IS the team.

 

People are seriously taking Nick Foles over Cam? Foles lost his best wr and how often does anyone repeat a miracle season?

[ralphster 274]

Top 12 for sure. But 8-12 this year instead of top 5. I see CAR regressing with the trouble on the o line and the lack of WR talent.

[dehaven123 31]

People are crazy for not including Cam in the top 7 let alone top 12. What is so bad about te team that hasn't been te case in past years? Old ass Steve smith is gone? That's just going to open up a chance for someone else to step up and make a name. The crap panthers go 12-4 and people are acting like Cam has already fallen off. What does the guy need to do? He's yet to have a bad fantasy season and is only growing as a player and qb. It's almost too easy to predict a top 5 fantasy finish for Cam regardless of how the team around him is. He IS the team.

 

People are seriously taking Nick Foles over Cam? Foles lost his best wr and how often does anyone repeat a miracle season?

 

probably in the minority, but 100% agree.

 

i have it like this:

brees

arod

manning

ryan

luck

rg3

cam

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

yeah count me in the camp that sees him as a top 5 guy, still. People point to the WR group and i submit it is no worse than it has been. Olsen is still there and he has been the most reliable target for Cam. Smitty is gone but he was past his prime. Cotchery can still produce as a possession guy and while im not crazy high on Benjamin, he is an upgrade over Lafell, imo.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I think you are nuts to draft him as a top 10 qb. There are plenty of guys who are less risky that will be good all year. He has had good end of year stats each year, but there have been stretches where cam has been contained.

[Cuse9 128]

Top six, don't matter how you rank them, IMO....Peyton, Rodgers, Brees, Luck, Newton, Brady

 

Who can you put in ahead of Cam that don't have questions themselves?

 

Wilson, Kaepernick, RG3, Rivers, Romo, Big Ben, M. Ryan, Foles...are you going to draft three of these guys ahead of Newton?

 

Newton definitely has issues to deal with, but he's still a top QB to have.

[tanatastic 2,061]

The dude has rushing stats and tds wich basically puts him in top 10 right there. I don't know why I'm even arguing, the dude has yet to not finish near the top so there's no real reason to say he won't until he doesn't. It's like arguing that the sun won't come up tomorro, even tho it has never failed to rise, so why doubt it?

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

yeah. as much as you can never say never, i'm failing to see what has changed in Carolina that would make Cam not be a top QB option.

 

if you're not learning from history, you're doomed to repeat it i guess?

 

the one instance might be leagues where passing TDs are worth 6 which negates a bit of the edge Cam has on the ground. Cam was still 9th on a per game basis in that format last year. Pretty obvious that barring injury he will be a top 12 QB.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

The dude has rushing stats and tds wich basically puts him in top 10 right there. I don't know why I'm even arguing, the dude has yet to not finish near the top so there's no real reason to say he won't until he doesn't. It's like arguing that the sun won't come up tomorro, even tho it has never failed to rise, so why doubt it?

Youre the one who is dismissing a qb who had 27 td to 2 ints, and that was missing 4 full games and the majority of a fifth. Not saying anything is certain, but to me it seems that a qb who is on a team that improved its offense is in a better position for the next year than a player who is on an offense that regressed + ankle surgery.

[Matt Mueller 146]

The dude has rushing stats and tds wich basically puts him in top 10 right there. I don't know why I'm even arguing, the dude has yet to not finish near the top so there's no real reason to say he won't until he doesn't. It's like arguing that the sun won't come up tomorro, even tho it has never failed to rise, so why doubt it?

Agree on the rushing stats. The 2nd part was said about Brady last year though.

 

At some point trends end.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

Agree on the rushing stats. The 2nd part was said about Brady last year though.

 

At some point trends end.

 

i do have to point out though that there were legitimate significant losses to the Patriots offense that offered reason for concern. Welker gone to Denver, Gronkowski set to miss at least 4 games, Hernandez in jail. Brady had lost 3 premier targets that we were used to him having. Unless im not remembering, Brady was falling down draft boards as summer went along. I don't know anyone who was viewing him as top 5.

 

im just not seeing the significant losses to the Panthers offense that would make me think things are going to drastically change for Cam.

 

i'd be more apt to listen to reasoning about his ankle than a supposed weaker offense....

[Connorsdad 38]

 

probably in the minority, but 100% agree.

 

i have it like this:

brees

arod

manning

ryan

luck

rg3

cam

No Stafford ??

 

In my opinion Cam Newton is around 8-10 range. I do think he has potential to be in the top 5 or 6 but I rather have these qb's this year.

 

Of course Brees , P. Manning & Rodgers

 

But also these qb's over Cam

Stafford

Matt Ryan

Luck

Brady

 

I think Cam Newton belongs in this group.

 

Rg3

Cam Newton

Foles

Romo

[Connorsdad 38]

Top six, don't matter how you rank them, IMO....Peyton, Rodgers, Brees, Luck, Newton, Brady

 

Who can you put in ahead of Cam that don't have questions themselves?

 

Wilson, Kaepernick, RG3, Rivers, Romo, Big Ben, M. Ryan, Foles...are you going to draft three of these guys ahead of Newton?

 

Newton definitely has issues to deal with, but he's still a top QB to have.

I would throw Stafford in there somewhere !

[Matt Mueller 146]

^ WW totally agree. Warning signs were many for Brady. I honestly kinda forgot all about Cam the way everyone's been ranking him and I think he could be an excellent value pick. Just another reason to wait in the IBL. If I was going to make a devils advocate case against him it would go something like this:

 

He finished the season on a down note as QB 16 the last 4 weeks of the season. ( Possibly-probably in part to the ankle?...didn't own him)

 

While the surgery isn't expected to effect his mobility and it appears may actually strengthen the ankle, a large part of his value is due to his rushing. If he feels forced to put the team on his shoulders, pushes too hard and gets nicked up it will cap his upside.

 

Although the wrs may not be that much worse as a group his surgery kept him out of much of the OTAs. He missed early reps to build familiarity. Olsen is the only one he really has a history with. An injury there could prove devastating.

 

In division Ds getting better. Atlanta was god awful. They can't be worse. Saints held him in check both games during that final season stretch. (One a monsoon in Carolina...prob toss that out) Tampa with Lovie in town should be better too.

 

Schedule to start the season looks kinda tough to me: Bucs, Lions, Steelers, Ravens, Bears, Bengals, Packers, Seahawks, Saints. (Actually kinda concerned about that looking at it now...he may be a great buy low candidate) Much easier on paper late.

 

3 of his 4 biggest games last year were out of division against the Vikings, Giants and Pats last year. Not scary Ds as a whole and teams he won't face again.

 

He finished with a career low in passing yardage, 300 yard games, yards per attempt, rushing yards and rushing tds. (Career high in passing tds)

[tanatastic 2,061]

No Stafford ??

In my opinion Cam Newton is around 8-10 range. I do think he has potential to be in the top 5 or 6 but I rather have these qb's this year.

Of course Brees , P. Manning & Rodgers

But also these qb's over Cam

Stafford

Matt Ryan

Luck

Brady

I think Cam Newton belongs in this group.

Rg3

Cam Newton

Foles

Romo

I can get behind this ranking. Iv been arguing Cam as a top 5 finisher but that's not to say I'd draft him like that. Meaning while I think his year end stats will push him there, I'd rather draft other guys that may score less just for consistency. Cam struck me as the kind of guy where I'd think he was sucking most of the year but at years end he was a top 5 guy. I think guys like that are team killers that lose more games than they win. I prefer more boring, dependable qbs. However I think I might switch Luck and Cam on your list.

[Connorsdad 38]

I don't think I want a running qb. There's a reason you don't see any old veteran running qb's because they don't last long enough to become veterans in the nfl. Like Tanatastic said I want a boring pocket passer. And most guys like Kaepernick , Russell Wilson don't throw it enough to be qb1's in my opinion. Last year rg3 was forced to throw it a ton because the skins d was extremely bad. I want a more consistent scoring qb that will get me around 20 points a week.

[vrabinec 19]

He should finish in the top 12, but I wouldn't touch a running QB with any pick unless I had all my other starter slots filled and could draft QB two picks in row so I had a backup of comparable ability to fill in in case of injury. That means in most drafts I'd take him in round 7 or 8, and he's always gone before that.

[FeelingMN 273]

Not a big fan of Cam. He's really not a good QB....but he does put up numbers. Right now he's going at the end of the 7th as QB10....which is about the same ADP as Golden Tate and the Seattle Defense. I'll take him all day at that price....and I'd much rather have Cam than Foles who's going 20 picks ahead of him.

[shutdown 40]

Worst Rushing TD Total (2013) = 6 * 6 = 36

Worst Passing TD Total (2012) = 19 * 4 = 76

Worst Rushing Yardage Total (2013) = 585 * .1 = 58.5

Worst Passing Yardage Total (2013) = 3379 * .05 = 169

 

So a compilation of Cam's worst statistical season ever = 339.5 points (by fftoday default scoring) or 9th of all 2013 QB's. It's really impossible to project him outside of the top 10 given that he could have had his worst season statistically in every major fantasy category and still been in the top 10 in 2013.

 

I'm not high on Cam but you have to have him between 6-10.

[shutdown 40]

He should finish in the top 12, but I wouldn't touch a running QB with any pick unless I had all my other starter slots filled and could draft QB two picks in row so I had a backup of comparable ability to fill in in case of injury. That means in most drafts I'd take him in round 7 or 8, and he's always gone before that.

He has not missed a game in 3 years - 48 games...

[vrabinec 19]

Donovan McNabb Didn't miss a game his 1st 3 years, then missed 6 in his 4th year and missed 7 in his 7th year

Steve McNair didn't miss a game in his 1st 4 years, then missed 5 in his 5th year

RG3's injury history is well known

Michael Vick didn't miss a game in his 1st 2 years, then missed 11 in his 3rd year

E.J. Manuel got hurt last year.

 

I know passing QB's get hurt as well, but the ratio of games missed by running QB's is much higher (That's just my opinion, I haven't done any empirical study on it or anything)

[rholio 339]

Brees

Manning

 

Stafford

Rodgers

Foles

 

Brady

Newton

Ryan

RGIII

Luck

 

Cutler

Romo

Kaepernick

 

Roethlisberger

Rivers

Wilson

 

Anywhere from 6th to 10th.

[vrabinec 19]

See, that's a perfect example of where I'd take a running QB. Let's say I went with all my other position players first in a 12 team draft, and the 1st 11 guys on that list were off the board to the other teams. I'd be perfectly happy to grab Kaepernick and then grab Ben in the next round, in case Kaepernick who is a running QB, gets hurt. And he would be interchangeable with Newton and RG3 at that spot. Whichever one drops, I'd take him, but I'd feel compelled to grab a passing QB right after him. And I'd pray that they never get hurt the same week, because Ben has a history of injury as well.

[PackYourNut 47]

Donovan McNabb Didn't miss a game his 1st 3 years, then missed 6 in his 4th year and missed 7 in his 7th year

Steve McNair didn't miss a game in his 1st 4 years, then missed 5 in his 5th year

RG3's injury history is well known

Michael Vick didn't miss a game in his 1st 2 years, then missed 11 in his 3rd year

E.J. Manuel got hurt last year.

 

I know passing QB's get hurt as well, but the ratio of games missed by running QB's is much higher (That's just my opinion, I haven't done any empirical study on it or anything)

 

 

None of the people you listed are 6'5 250 either.

 

Anyone can get hurt and running QB's are more of a risk, but less so when you are as big as half the people tackling you.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

Oh he is definitely a risk. Anyone running as much as he does especially down near the goal line...

 

But it has nothing to do with his weapons

[Hawkfin 32]

I'm going against the mold... I have him right at #12 and I might move him to #13 depending.

While S.Smith is old he was a leader and comfort guy who could always make the tough catch. But, just as important to me as him are the other two wides they lost in addition to that. The speed guy in praticular who found his own last year. He lost 3 guy's and I don't like who they brought in. What will help is if the rookie (who I do like) comes out and plays beyond a rookie level?

I also think they might play more Def battle games and low scoring. I could see his Int's go up this year, less passing yards, and if his running numbers reduce then I see him being a big let down. I could even see the Carolina team being a letdown.

Sure, Cam might run more or get his stats regardless of players around him. But, I have better options out there that I'd roll with.

Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Brady, Luck, and Stafford for sure.
But, I also have Kaep, Wilson, Dalton, Ryan, and Foles right in the same category as Cam to which I have Cam last and at #12.

And I'm still debating about moving RG3 or even Rivers/Romo ahead of him.

The history say's I'm wrong, but that's what "predictions and unknown future" is all about.

[PackYourNut 47]

Cam's value is in his running and rushing TDs... Always has been. Unless you are forecasting for that to take a dramatic drop, then there is no merit to him dropping out of the top 5.

 

It doesn't matter who is WR's are, as he is pedestrian at best scoring points from passing. However, I would argue that he actually upgraded his WRs,

 

Think about this...

 

No Car WR has ever caught 80 passes from Cam - Unlikely to happen this year, but it's possible I suppose

Only Smith has posted more than 677 receiving yards in a year - Could very well happen this year

Only 1 time has a ANY WR on the team caught more than 5 TDs - I would bet the farm that Benjamin catches more than 5 TDs this year

 

So, basically his WRs have pretty much ALWAYS sucked and yet he finishes top 5 every year. What has changed? Nothing! Except maybe his WRs were actually upgraded. It doesnt take a lot to upgrade from Ginn Jr., LaFail and an over the hill Smitty.

[Hawkfin 32]

Cam's value is in his running and rushing TDs... Always has been. Unless you are forecasting for that to take a dramatic drop, then there is no merit to him dropping out of the top 5.

 

It doesn't matter who is WR's are, as he is pedestrian at best scoring points from passing. However, I would argue that he actually upgraded his WRs,

 

Think about this...

 

No Car WR has ever caught 80 passes from Cam - Unlikely to happen this year, but it's possible I suppose

Only Smith has posted more than 677 receiving yards in a year - Could very well happen this year

Only 1 time has a ANY WR on the team caught more than 5 TDs - I would bet the farm that Benjamin catches more than 5 TDs this year

 

So, basically his WRs have pretty much ALWAYS sucked and yet he finishes top 5 every year. What has changed? Nothing! Except maybe his WRs were actually upgraded. It doesnt take a lot to upgrade from Ginn Jr., LaFail and an over the hill Smitty.

I get what your saying in theory. But, IMO those guy's knew the system and kept drives alive which gave more chances for Cam's running and scoring. They were all unique and offered Hands/Route/Reliability = Smith, Speed = Ginn, and Height/Athletic = Lefell.

Cam's bread and butter has been the run no doubt, but his overall pass yardage has been pretty decent too and passing TD's while spread out to everybody was good enough.

 

He uses everybody (See Seattle) and gets a little bit from everybody to then allow his running to take over.

But, if drives are not kept alive, New wides not as good as you think and don't know the system, then this could effect his overall running ability and scoring chances. So yes, IMO it could effect his running but I also think his INT's go up and less passing to boot.

A injury is also more prone if he tries to do too much too.

 

Maybe it doesn't take a lot to upgrade from those 3 wides, but I don't see it yet. To me it's worse right now.

Maybe he will be fine with any plug and play WR. We'll see?

 

IMO - there are better options with the other QB's I pointed out. And why not just take RG3 then who can also run just as well?

And RG3 has much greater talent at WR now.

[vrabinec 19]

Yeah, and let's not forget he's coming off ankle surgery and didn't work out this offseason with his new receivers, so the start of the season could be quite slow.

[rholio 339]

.... lost his best wr and how often does anyone repeat a miracle season?

 

I said the exact same thing when Sterling Sharpe retired.

[Flgatorguy87 160]

The dude has rushing stats and tds wich basically puts him in top 10 right there. I don't know why I'm even arguing, the dude has yet to not finish near the top so there's no real reason to say he won't until he doesn't. It's like arguing that the sun won't come up tomorro, even tho it has never failed to rise, so why doubt it?

The sun doesn't come up. It's just an illusion caused by the world spinning around.

[vrabinec 19]

Go look at the rushing stats of "running QBs" and you'll see how quickly they decline. Teams want to protect their QB, and running puts the QB at risk. It's a necessity at first because most of them need to learn how to read defenses, and they turn to the run, but by the third or fourth year, their rushing stats generally decline by half UNLESS they don't have any receivers to throw to in which case their passing stats take a plunge and their running stats stay the same.

 

If you think Newton's rushing stats will stay the same, you're kidding yourself. You MIGHT get lucky and get one more year out of him in that regard, but then, his receivers suck, so his passing is gonna suffer this year. No way he finishes a top 5 QB this year. Don't draft him like he is. You can probably get him in the 5th or 6th, if you really want him.

[PackYourNut 47]

Go look at the rushing stats of "running QBs" and you'll see how quickly they decline. Teams want to protect their QB, and running puts the QB at risk. It's a necessity at first because most of them need to learn how to read defenses, and they turn to the run, but by the third or fourth year, their rushing stats generally decline by half UNLESS they don't have any receivers to throw to in which case their passing stats take a plunge and their running stats stay the same.

 

If you think Newton's rushing stats will stay the same, you're kidding yourself. You MIGHT get lucky and get one more year out of him in that regard, but then, his receivers suck, so his passing is gonna suffer this year. No way he finishes a top 5 QB this year. Don't draft him like he is. You can probably get him in the 5th or 6th, if you really want him.

 

 

You are just guessing, there is no factual argument you can make, which is why you try to support your case with generalities.

 

The facts are that Cam doesn't need good WRs to put up good fantasy numbers. He doesnt even need good passing stats...

 

He's never been top 12 in pass attempts with an average of 16th

He has one top 10 finish in passing yards with an average of 13th .

He's never had a Top 10 in passing TDs with an average of 15th

 

Basically, he is average at best in all passing categories, yet he has been a top 5 QB EVERY YEAR!

 

His floor is top 5-7, barring injury!

 

If things go well and his WR perform better than expected or the offense runs more plays, calls more passes or scores more, he could easily be top 3 again.

[vrabinec 19]

The "factual" argument I make is based on looking at history and what happens to running qb's.

 

Check out Donovan McNabb. a nice big QB like Cam. 600 yards rushing the first year he started, 400 the next two years, 300 the following year, and from then on he never came close to 300 again. His rushing TDs declined with the yards.

 

Steve McNair, 600 yards his first year starting, 500 the next, never sniffed 500 again after that.

 

And it's not that they aren't capable of running anymore, it's that guys who insist on continuing to run like Michael Vick, spend a lot of time on the IR list. This isn't some secret.

 

Newton ran for 700 his first 2 years. 500 last year. I'm guessing it's around 400 this year. With the bad/young receivers he has, he should throw for 3400 yards again. a respectable 3800 total yards. A nice pick up in leagues where passing TDs are 4 points, but not so good in leagues where they're worth 6.

[Hawkfin 32]

 

 

You are just guessing, there is no factual argument you can make, which is why you try to support your case with generalities.

 

The facts are that Cam doesn't need good WRs to put up good fantasy numbers. He doesnt even need good passing stats...

 

He's never been top 12 in pass attempts with an average of 16th

He has one top 10 finish in passing yards with an average of 13th .

He's never had a Top 10 in passing TDs with an average of 15th

 

Basically, he is average at best in all passing categories, yet he has been a top 5 QB EVERY YEAR!

 

His floor is top 5-7, barring injury!

 

If things go well and his WR perform better than expected or the offense runs more plays, calls more passes or scores more, he could easily be top 3 again.

But, what happens if he drops to 20th passer average this year.

What if he finishes 18th in passing yards

And what if his passing TD's drop to 20th, while his INT's go up.

(So his worst statistical passer ratings)

 

I base this on losing his entire WR staff that he's bascially had since he's been there. I could see all that happening in his passing stats alone. Then you add the slumping year of passing stats, which will go hand in hand with his running stats to drop those some too.

 

All this could equal a big drop for Cam - And as I "project it" - A fall from top 10 or 12 for the first time! It's bound to happen eventually.

At least until his WR core gets up to speed or until I see a productive WR in the bunch.

 

Again - You are right. No proof. The stats back you. BUT, this is why we "project". Nobody stays the same every year.

I project he drops. I'd rather have RG3 this year.

 

[ckleinhe 2]

lots of good points, but look at Cam's passer rating or adjusted yards/attempt when targeting specific receivers: it's pretty much the same no matter who the receiver is/was.

 

what that suggests is that his passing success belongs to him, not the receivers. in other words, steve smith and brandon lafell didn't 'make' cam, cam did.

 

so swapping out an aging, decling smiff and underwhelming lafell shouldn't really matter.

 

no reason to expect a dropoff, imo.