Black Jack

[WhiteWonder 2,734]

gave "card counting" a try for the first time this weekend. Hit a local casino with a few buddies. I usually do pretty well at blackjack just by paying standard game theory

 

-always split aces and 8's,

-surrender a 2 card 16 versus a dealer 10,

- conversely, if you draw to a 16 with 3 or more cards, you stay

-Hit 12 against dealer 2 or 3, (a lot of people stay but the %'s favor the house)

-double down 9,10,11 versus dealer 6,

-double down 10,11 versus dealer 5 or 6

-split 9's against a dealer 9

- hit 7's against a dealer 8,9,10 or split them against a 7 or lower if the house lets you double after a split.

 

 

so card counting is legal if you're using your mind (I read somewhere there was an iphone card counting app.. those types of things are illegal) and the worst that can happen is you get tossed, possibly banned. It's also fairly easy to do and I think I would have done better with more practice. I literally just read a little about it and decided to give it a whirl. Just don't sit at a table with an automatic card shuffler as they render card counting pointless. Play at single or double deck games or even 6-8 deck shoes as I did. Don't sit there glued to the cards as they are dealt. Have a drink in hand, be vocal, basically play as you normally would.

 

I think some people confuse card counting with a way to know HOW to play each specific hand you are dealt like when to hit or stay.... Its not. You play every hand based on standard game theory. Card counting simply tells you when to raise your bet and when to scale it back down to the minimum, OR, possibly sit a few hands out.

 

I apologize if most of you beautiful minds already know this but the most basic card counting concept is +/- counting. You sit down at the start of a fresh shoe and for every 2,3,4,5,6 that gets deal, you add 1. For every 10, J, Q, K, Ace you subtract 1. 7,8,9 are ignored. The easiest thing to do is wait until the entire round has been dealt and take a glance at each players 2 card hand. A,3 would net 0, 4,5 would be +2, 6,K would net 0, 8,Q would be -1 and 2,2 would be +2. Dealer shows a 6 which is +1 so the running count is +4. In a single deck game, this would be cause to up your bet but in a 6 deck shoe (usually only 4-5 decks are played after the dealer "cuts", your true count is more like +1/2 as you need to divide your running count by the number of decks still in play.

 

The idea is, the higher your count is on the + side, the more 10's, face cards and aces are left in the shoe which is more chances for you to be dealt black jacks, 20's and for the dealer to bust. The odds have swung in your favor. On the flip side, the higher your count is in the negative, the more low cards are left in the shoe which is generally not good for you and gives the house an even bigger than normal advantage. So you up your bets when the + count is high and scale back when the count is near even or the negative count is high. You can still win hands by playing basic game theory but the house has the odds and you want to be making minimum bets.

 

So while playing, we were maybe 2 decks into the show and the running count was +22. I started to up my 15 dollar bets to 25 or 30 (i know big player here ) I don't think I lost a single hand where I increased my bet. I also got no blackjacks to boost my winnings and I had no split opportunities. Maybe 1 or 2 double downs. I played for 30 minutes and finished up $160

 

After some shots and rounds I sat back down, this time at a $25 minimum table. Maybe I was a little buzzed, maybe it was the hot girl next to me with almost her entire top unbuttoned, but for whatever reason I could NOT keep anything close to an accurate count. I tried but ended up reverting back to just playing the basics. I was down almost 200 at that table, worked it back to a whopping +10 dollars and it was time to leave

 

 

 

 

sorry for the long GFesque story. Wondering if anyone else does this, has tried it? It really seemed to work at the first table. Considering I got no blackjacks or split opportunities but when the card count was so high in my favor, my increased bets always resulted in 19's and 20's and there was a lot of dealer busting.

[Giants Fan 85]

Cool story bro. :meh:

[Djgb13 2,339]

Card counting is legal but casinos now have camera technology that can identify it. Only getting tossed or banned would be a good thing. They might take you to a back room and rough you up a bit. Wouldn't trust it

[frank 2,304]

1. Great, another gfiafp.

 

2. You might as well learn the rest of the basic strategy.

[Giants Fan 85]

No, ok, seriously. Here are the problems with what some people call an AP, and Advantage Player at a casino:

 

First of all, never use a players card. Fock the comps, yer not there for comps.

 

True you can get tossed, and actually blacklisted. Barred from multiple casinos, if you are not carefull. There are guys that can also count that are watching for people to increase their bets when the count is good. They detect a pattern on you, they "backroom" you, and these days, they just ban you. It's not cheating, but casinos don't like APs, not including poker, they don't care in poker, not their money being won and lost.

 

So, let's say the count is in your favor, you are playing perfectly, but non chalantly enough not to get detected, and you can get away with some, pretty basic really, math in your head without moving your lips. What are your odds, in an almost perfect situation? 60/40?

 

Yeah, you just figured it out, you gotta have the roll to survive the swings, or variance is gonna kill you. It's still gambling, it's just gambling with an advantage. Live poker players are mostly so bad, I think I have a bigger advantage there. Not saying I have never done any advantage play (I have, and I won) but I do it VERY infrequently.

[Giants Fan 85]

Supposedly true: Stu Ungar once watched a 6 deck shoe dealt out, one card at a time, knew what the last card was. I don't think I could even learn to do that if you gave me a year to practice.

 

1 deck ... on a good day, with the wind at my back, I can do one deck. It's the same reason why Stu and I both love Gin. If you understand the math, Gin is basically solved. Sure, if I play you and you don't get the math, you might get lucky and win, but to 100 points, prolly gonna be hard, much harder than a novice poker player beating a pro.

[Chronic Husker 85]

I've never seen a legit source recommend sitting on any 16. I don't play, though.

[Giants Fan 85]

I've never seen a legit source recommend sitting on any 16. I don't play, though.

I remember my first time playing, I wanted to hit on an hard 18. Dealer was showing a face card. I knew a lot of face cards were gone. The good count had passed, and it was a lot of small number cards. My friend is like no ... You are not hitting on 18. And even though I said "hit me" ... My friend who was teaching me "the basics" talks me out of it. Dealer turns over Q2, you know what the turn was, a 3. Dealer hasta hit on 15. 4 comes, I lose.

 

See, what I do is a little bit more difficult than counting cards ... I see this big pattern of cards, and I have the memory to like blank out each card that I see, so I am not really counting cards at all. I don't know what the count is. But I know, like for instance there are a lot of 2s and 3s left.

 

One time recently I doubled down on a 9 and hit an ace. Basic strat would never say double down on a 9 ... but basic strat, plus counting, also does not account for how many aces are left in the shoe. That's what I do. I remember frequencies and patterns, like I know all the 7s are gone ... so, if I hafe 14 prolly gonna stay. i see a big pattern. It's hard to wipe it out and start over, though. Like instantly. I need like 10 minutes to forget it all.

[WhiteWonder 2,734]

Card counting is legal but casinos now have camera technology that can identify it. Only getting tossed or banned would be a good thing. They might take you to a back room and rough you up a bit. Wouldn't trust it

 

unless you're in Vegas, playing high limit tables, varying your bets so obviously and taking them for grands, I doubt anyone is "roughing you up" in a back room. at a low limit table in a small establishment, that really isn't going to happen.

 

1. Great, another gfiafp.

 

2. You might as well learn the rest of the basic strategy.

 

I didn't list every nuance of basic blackjack strategy. sorry

 

 

No, ok, seriously. Here are the problems with what some people call an AP, and Advantage Player at a casino:

 

First of all, never use a players card. Fock the comps, yer not there for comps.

 

True you can get tossed, and actually blacklisted. Barred from multiple casinos, if you are not carefull. There are guys that can also count that are watching for people to increase their bets when the count is good. They detect a pattern on you, they "backroom" you, and these days, they just ban you. It's not cheating, but casinos don't like APs, not including poker, they don't care in poker, not their money being won and lost.

 

So, let's say the count is in your favor, you are playing perfectly, but non chalantly enough not to get detected, and you can get away with some, pretty basic really, math in your head without moving your lips. What are your odds, in an almost perfect situation? 60/40?

 

Yeah, you just figured it out, you gotta have the roll to survive the swings, or variance is gonna kill you. It's still gambling, it's just gambling with an advantage. Live poker players are mostly so bad, I think I have a bigger advantage there. Not saying I have never done any advantage play (I have, and I won) but I do it VERY infrequently.

 

Who said you win all the time? I believe I said in my initial post that the goal of card counting is to very your bets based on who has the advantage, the player or the house. the house starts off with the advantage. If your counts gets high enough on the plus side you can get yourself a 2% advantage. I don't think its even nearly as high as 60-40. So yes, for someone who was looking to do this for the long haul and beat the casinos, you need to have the proper bankroll to weather the downs. Even playing with a 2% advantage and following BJ strategy, you can catch a run of luck. You should probably have 5X the minimum bet as your bankroll. 5k for a 50 dollar minimum bet table. Thats just a guess though.

 

However, unlike you, I have no crack pipe dreams of making a living off BJ card counting. (as you do/did with poker until you finally realized you suck). Just something I wanted to try on a night out with the boys.

 

 

I've never seen a legit source recommend sitting on any 16. I don't play, though.

 

Ive seen a few sources say that if you hit to a 16, you stay. Obviously once you've hit, you can't surrender. I guess if you drew to a 3 or 4 card 16, you probably have 2-4 low cards making up that 16 so the odds are against you if you hit again and assuming the next card out is a 10 (which you don't want) that could also be the dealers bust card.

 

im not an expert. i play a lot of blackjack when i go to a casino but this is what i've heard.

[WhiteWonder 2,734]

I remember my first time playing, I wanted to hit on an hard 18. Dealer was showing a face card. I knew a lot of face cards were gone. The good count had passed, and it was a lot of small number cards. My friend is like no ... You are not hitting on 18. And even though I said "hit me" ... My friend who was teaching me "the basics" talks me out of it. Dealer turns over Q2, you know what the turn was, a 3. Dealer hasta hit on 15. 4 comes, I lose.

 

but that doesn't matter. your friend was telling you the correct play. your gut feeling might sometimes be right but %'s say hitting on a hard 18 is a bad play. You would have won that hand but the next 5 times you try that, you bust.

[Giants Fan 85]

I don't expect you to be able to use my pattern technique. But try it. Picture a deck of cards in your head. Ace through K, all four suits. Picture taht image. Then, as I deal a card, like the light goes off, behind that card, and as I deal the next card, the light for that card goes off. If you can do THAT ... into multiple decks, which I can only kinda do ... Yer not counting, you know what cards are left, you can throw basic strat out the window, at that point. If you know what the next card is, does basic strat matter?

 

But, I digress. There are lots of counting tecniques, and you should use what works best for you. Often times, BJ tables will have some sucker side bets. Put a buck on those every once in awhile, and they will write you off as an AP.

[Giants Fan 85]

Here is one way I try and look at it, because I can't do this perfectly into multiple decks like in Rain Man, your brain knows every card you have seen, in the past 15 minutes. You did see, and your brain does know every single exact card that you have just seen ... you just gotta tap into that, focus on the pattern, it's there ... you know it, you gotta just trust it, and you will see the pattern of remaining cards, and then fock the count. There's a HUGE advantage if you know what the next card is.

[WhiteWonder 2,734]

I don't expect you to be able to use my pattern technique. But try it. Picture a deck of cards in your head. Ace through K, all four suits. Picture taht image. Then, as I deal a card, like the light goes off, behind that card, and as I deal the next card, the light for that card goes off. If you can do THAT ... into multiple decks, which I can only kinda do ... Yer not counting, you know what cards are left, you can throw basic strat out the window, at that point. If you know what the next card is, does basic strat matter?

 

But, I digress. There are lots of counting tecniques, and you should use what works best for you. Often times, BJ tables will have some sucker side bets. Put a buck on those every once in awhile, and they will write you off as an AP.

 

this is full of fail. basic strat always matters. there are not that many counting techniques, even if you add in back counting and sitting at a table with a team.

 

also, there are side games where card counting up's your chances in those as well. In fact, the casino I happened to be at had a side "20" game. any 20 paid 5 to 1. suited 10 to 1, dual king of spades was like 200 to 1. dual king of spades with a dealer BJ, 1000 to 1. considering card counting is a method to tell you when there are more 10's and aces in the deck and the odds have swung from the house to your favor, a side game such as this would be more beneficial to play when the card count is high.

 

although I will agree with you that many other side games, tossing a minimum bet out there randomly will make you look like a player who has no clue what they are doing.

[WhiteWonder 2,734]

Here is one way I try and look at it, because I can't do this perfectly into multiple decks like in Rain Man, your brain knows every card you have seen, in the past 15 minutes. You did see, and your brain does know every single exact card that you have just seen ... you just gotta tap into that, focus on the pattern, it's there ... you know it, you gotta just trust it, and you will see the pattern of remaining cards, and then fock the count. There's a HUGE advantage if you know what the next card is.

 

only problem here and how I can tell you don't know what your talking about (just like poker) is that in a 6 or 8 deck shoe, the dealer is going to cut anywhere from 1-3 decks out of the loop. the cards have been shuffled and it is impossible for you to know which cards will NOT be played. It hinders card counting but even more so, hinders your supposed strategy of being able to predict the next card out .

 

at least with card counting, you're simply looking for a running count and to get the odds in your favor. If your card count is up there in your favor, even if the cut portion of the shoe contains more 10's and above, you can still feel pretty confident you hold the slight advantage.

 

you're talking about know the exact next card and thats not possible unless you're playing a 1 deck game.

[Giants Fan 85]

No, basic strat does not matter. If you have 20 and you know, with 100% certainty that the next card is an ace, you should hit.

[Giants Fan 85]

I am not saying that I ever know, with 100% certainty, but in a vacuum ... basic strat does not matter if you know what cards are left.

 

I can pretty much do it with a single deck. Sure, some cards I never see, and I know I can't turn those off, but it gives me a range.

 

The real beauty of this, because it is not directly linked to the count, is you can make moves that appear to be stupid, and lucky.

[WhiteWonder 2,734]

I am not saying that I ever know, with 100% certainty, but in a vacuum ... basic strat does not matter if you know what cards are left.

 

I can pretty much do it with a single deck. Sure, some cards I never see, and I know I can't turn those off, but it gives me a range.

 

but you don't have any way to know what cards are left unless its a single deck game... like i just said, bucko.

[WhiteWonder 2,734]

No, basic strat does not matter. If you have 20 and you know, with 100% certainty that the next card is an ace, you should hit.

 

not really, unless you're playing alone. If you want to piss off the rest of your table, then go for it but unless you're sitting in last position or you see that no one else is going to hit (maybe dealer has a 6 up and everyone has hard hands) you should be staying on your 20.

 

 

thats the last i'll say on it since you're spitting nonsense. I should abort this thread or should have started it during the day while you're sleeping.

[Giants Fan 85]

but you don't have any way to know what cards are left unless its a single deck game... like i just said, bucko.

I kinda can. I can do it better than most people.

[Giants Fan 85]

not really, unless you're playing alone. If you want to piss off the rest of your table, then go for it but unless you're sitting in last position or you see that no one else is going to hit (maybe dealer has a 6 up and everyone has hard hands) you should be staying on your 20.

 

 

thats the last i'll say on it since you're spitting nonsense. I should abort this thread or should have started it during the day while you're sleeping.

 

NP, sorry dude, I will leave the thread, go ramble in my poker thread, if you want. Sorry, just trying to give you some advice. I understand my technique is not for most people.

[WhiteWonder 2,734]

I kinda can. I can do it better than most people.

 

[Giants Fan 85]

I will know, deep into a shoe, for instance, if there have not been a lot of 8s played, maybe I saw only one ... so I know, that every card I see that is not an 8, increases the chance that the next card will be an 8.

 

See, it's not counting, the way you are doing it ...nm, sorry ... I will stop posting in yer thread.

[Giants Fan 85]

Ok, you ever seen Rain Man?

 

Yah know this scene?

 

 

"Ya took my Queen Ray." and Ray responds "there's lots of them". He doesn't hafta know basic strat at all, because he knows what the face down cards are. I realize most people reading this, would think I was full of shiat, it's really hard to explain to just about anyone who does not have a super sharp short term memory. It's not counting. I don't keep track of the count. I keep track of the actual cards that are left in the shoe.

 

I try anyway.

[WhiteWonder 2,734]

I will know, deep into a shoe, for instance, if there have not been a lot of 8s played, maybe I saw only one ... so I know, that every card I see that is not an 8, increases the chance that the next card will be an 8.

 

See, it's not counting, the way you are doing it ...nm, sorry ... I will stop posting in yer thread.

 

what you're talking about, its what any blackjack player does if they are even half paying attention. havn't seen any jacks or queens in quite a while, chances are increasing that you'll see one... except... (read my response to your next idiotic post.

 

I don't keep track of the count. I keep track of the actual cards that are left in the shoe.

 

I try anyway.

 

you can try all you want but its not possible. you know when a shoe ends and the dealer gives the cut card to a player.. player cuts, thinking they will bring good luck. dealer puts that portion to the back then places the cut card anywhere from 1-3 "decks" at the back? those cards never get played and could theoretically contain ANY cards of the 6 or 8 decks "in play". All your 8's from your previous example could be stuck behind the cut card and you'll never see one. so while the chances of an 8 increase the longer youve gone without seeing one, there is NO way for you to know exactly what card is coming next.

 

now you might be crazy smart and sharp (we know youre not) and you can certainly keep track of what cards are left in the shoe.... but because at least a deck and a half of that show will never be played you can't predict the next card out.

 

in a single deck game, you might have a chance on the last few hands. otherwise, you're just blowing 9/11 smoke up peoples asses

[nobody 2,667]

 

what you're talking about, its what any blackjack player does if they are even half paying attention. havn't seen any jacks or queens in quite a while, chances are increasing that you'll see one... except... (read my response to your next idiotic post.

 

 

you can try all you want but its not possible. you know when a shoe ends and the dealer gives the cut card to a player.. player cuts, thinking they will bring good luck. dealer puts that portion to the back then places the cut card anywhere from 1-3 "decks" at the back? those cards never get played and could theoretically contain ANY cards of the 6 or 8 decks "in play". All your 8's from your previous example could be stuck behind the cut card and you'll never see one. so while the chances of an 8 increase the longer youve gone without seeing one, there is NO way for you to know exactly what card is coming next.

 

now you might be crazy smart and sharp (we know youre not) and you can certainly keep track of what cards are left in the shoe.... but because at least a deck and a half of that show will never be played you can't predict the next card out.

 

in a single deck game, you might have a chance on the last few hands. otherwise, you're just blowing 9/11 smoke up peoples asses

that would be sick if someone could do that. Especially if you could merge cards. 6 deck shoe toward the end. Dealers showing a 3. And you know there are 23 8's and 15 7's out of say 100 cards and uniform across the rest. without doing the math, you'd probably want to make sure you make a hand.

[Sho Nuff 720]

I kinda can. I can do it better than most people.

You can. ..yet you are a broje ass mofo who sucks at Black Jack, poker, and life.

 

The only thing i do believe is that you are a more socially inept, less successful, not nearly as smart or talented version of Rain Man.

 

Maybe a hooker will be nice to you some day.

[Frank M 181]

I don't gamble.

 

[edjr 6,580]

Mulligan?

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

Mulligan?

His grandkids are now in the ring. The claw where he squeezed the head was a great move. Lots of opportunities for fake blood.

[WhiteWonder 2,734]

went back this evening. friends mostly drank and played roulette, little blackjack.

 

I only played blackjack. Walked around looking for a table, lot of tables installed constant shuffling machines. stayed away from those obviously. most $20 tables had the shufflers.... all the other visible 6 deck shoes were $25 minimum bet. I could afford to sit at those tables but I just prefer the lowest minimum possible. I'll make 50, 75 dollar bets but I like to be able to ramp it down as much as possible when needed (always have), i'd prefer a 10 dollar table but you just don't see those anymore.

 

Found a 20 dollar table with a visible shoe. We didn't get there until 8:30. Sign on the table said raising to $25 minimum at 8pm. They didn't end up raising it until maybe 9:30 after 3 more shoes were played.

 

I had zero trouble keeping my count. One shoe was worthless as the count got negative pretty fast and mostly stayed there. The other shoes got some pretty nice positive counts. +22 at one point with roughly 3 decks left. +7 true count. I raised my bets nominally and started playing the side bet (any 20 pays out, more for suited, more for suited kings etc etc). A very good side bet for card counting.

 

I'm doing a little GF rambling here, but if you care and are reading this, stick with me. Almost all the times I raised my bets and played the side bet, I was correct to do so. 10's-A's began coming out. It just didn't work out for me exactly. 20 to my right, blackjack to my left, 10/3 for me . Even had the guy to my right (on the shoe that got up to +22) hit K/K spades on the side bet which paid 200 to 1. His 5 dollar side bet got him 1 grand plus the $75 he won on the hand itself...... nice

 

Eventually the odds did work in my favor, hit a few side bets, dealer began busting more often (part of why more high cards is a good thing), had one crazy hand where i split 8's 3 times.. only got 1 blackjack in the hour i played. Finished +140 after tipping the dealer.... Spent the rest of the time downing dollar drinks until we left.

 

So i played a total of roughly 2 hours of blackjack this week and netted $300 . Ain't gonna work every time but its always fun when you're winning.. or just breaking even for that matter. Then again, I'm out drinking with my friends, not alone grinding out 15 bucks on a no limit 2/4 poker table for 6 hours.....

[tanatastic 2,062]

Black jack is about the worst odds in the casino. Play the pass line at the craps table or stick to red/black roulette.

[WhiteWonder 2,734]

Black jack is about the worst odds in the casino. Play the pass line at the craps table or stick to red/black roulette.

 

not sure where you're getting your info (i'll assume you just think it to be true) but its incorrect.

 

blackjack is one of the better odds games at the casino. Blackjack is about a .5% - 1% house advantage depending on wether the dealer stands or hits a soft 17, making it one of the better games as long as you know basic strategy (when to hit, stand, split, double down, surrender etc)

 

craps and roulette have worse odds. Unless, like you said you stick to red/black or pass line craps... then you're looking at about the same odds as blackjack with a much slower payout

 

the worst bets in casinos are Keno, Slot machines, Baccarat, Sic Bo and most bets on the craps table other than pass line

[frank 2,304]

Neither of you know what you are talking about. Baccarat, as long as you don't bet the tie, is one of the best bets. All bets on roulette, except the 5 number bet that a lot of people don't know about, are the same with a 5.26% house edge. The pass line is a good bet, but not as good as blackjack. WW is correct about blackjack.

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

They used to have single deck blackjack at a casino in tunica. Only problem is, the morons down there that cash their welfare check at the table don't know how to play... They do stupid crap like hit on 18 and mess up the shoe.

 

The solution... Fill the whole table yourself. Me, my parents, my brother and sister, and various significant others took up a whole table for a couple of hours, and we're just killing it. Ultimately, the pit boss's comped us a buffet and then asked us to leave. Shortly thereafter, single deck disappeared.

[frank 2,304]

They used to have single deck blackjack at a casino in tunica. Only problem is, the morons down there that cash their welfare check at the table don't know how to play... They do stupid crap like hit on 18 and mess up the shoe.

 

The solution... Fill the whole table yourself. Me, my parents, my brother and sister, and various significant others took up a whole table for a couple of hours, and we're just killing it. Ultimately, the pit boss's comped us a buffet and then asked us to leave. Shortly thereafter, single deck disappeared.

You can't mess up the shoe. You can't really believe who you are playing with affects your results.

[nobody 2,667]

When good gambling goes wrong - presented by fftoday. Lots of misinformation in this thread (sans frank).

[The Moz 69]

Counting cards is great if you have a decent size bank roll , have a really good memory with a decent level of Math Skill , and are willing to travel to a different place every few days to play. If your good with a great memory you can get 70-30 with your money - if you stay at the same place especially Vegas and AC you will get caught and blacklisted. Its not a crime and they won't "backroom" you they will just escort you out and once you are black listed at 1 casino kiss all casinos in Vegas and AC goodbye as they will spot you in there within a 1/2 hour by facial rec. If it's just the 5-10 dollar tables then they are more likely to let it go unless you are there everyday taking a grand from them or something.

[Giants Fan 85]

MORE GAMBOL!

 

I will have a poker update soon, likely tonight. I know, you all want me to post about it now, but yer just gonna hafta wait!

[WhiteWonder 2,734]

When good gambling goes wrong - presented by fftoday. Lots of misinformation in this thread (sans frank).

 

[Mike Honcho 5,269]

Card counting is legal but casinos now have camera technology that can identify it. Only getting tossed or banned would be a good thing. They might take you to a back room and rough you up a bit. Wouldn't trust it

 

You've been watching too many movies.