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Filthy Fernadez

Fanduel - Straight up? Step inside......

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How many times does the powerball winner go to the guy who bought 1 ticket? Probably never. If the guy had 10 entries, and only the 3 won, then that makes sense. Only submitted 3 and won, come on. That's got red flags all over it. How many guys submit 10, 20 and 50 lineups, but this guy submitted 3 and won?

Could this be explained by a person trying to take advantage of the Fanduel/Draftkings match and opening lots of smaller accounts, instead of 1 big one? If a guy puts $2000 into one account FD/DK gives him $200 extra. If the same guy puts $2000 into 10 accounts, FD/DK gives him $2000 extra. One guy could enter dozens of lineups, but spread out over dozens of accounts. And then when he hits the lottery lineup and wins the jackpot, it looks like one guy with one account who got suspiciously lucky. But really its a guy who entered 250 lineups spread out over 250 accounts.

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Could this be explained by a person trying to take advantage of the Fanduel/Draftkings match and opening lots of smaller accounts, instead of 1 big one? If a guy puts $2000 into one account FD/DK gives him $200 extra. If the same guy puts $2000 into 10 accounts, FD/DK gives him $2000 extra. One guy could enter dozens of lineups, but spread out over dozens of accounts. And then when he hits the lottery lineup and wins the jackpot, it looks like one guy with one account who got suspiciously lucky. But really its a guy who entered 250 lineups spread out over 250 accounts.

 

Multi-accounting is strictly forbidden. So unless someone sets up accounts from a bunch of different IP addresses, with different names, addresses, emails, etc, this would never work.

 

Not to mention the $200 match drips out at a 4% clip. So every $25 you play you get $1 of bonus. So to even earn one $200 bonus you would have to play $5000 in action before it expires. Obviously some guys play much bigger volume than this, but just making a point that I'm not sure the bonus explanation is really worth it if you are already a winning player playing that type of volume.

 

This whole thing is nothing more than these big contests with 200k+ entries are lotteries. This guy hit the lottery. Did he do it 3 times? No. He did it once. He just used that same lineup multiple times in different contests, just like many people do. Is he a new player? Yes. Was there probably 10,000+ other new players last week (and especially the week before) that lost and no one talks about? Yes.

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I guess time will tell if the proof is in the pudding. Lets see if in the next few weeks the same scenario occurs. If every week the new guy hits the 3 big prizes then yes there is some collusion going on.

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Check out the third link http://smg.photobucket.com/user/charliedontsurf/media/mcclellanmel-sept21stA_zpsp7eb2yzk.jpg.html that shows the guy's lineup.

 

Shane Vereen .3% owned

Crabtree .2% owned

Janikowski .9% owned

 

Sure, having 1 or 2 of them in your SOLE lineup is plausible but all three and he banks 1st in one and 1st and 2nd in the other. Combine that with Fitz in there just makes it unbelievable for a single entry win. The cherry on top is him having just joined Thursday.

 

Stinks like a wh0rehouse in July.

Truth is i had Fitz ,Vereen and Decker in a lineup only to go back and change them out. Probably cost me a bunch of money. I think these sites are straight up.

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Multi-accounting is strictly forbidden. So unless someone sets up accounts from a bunch of different IP addresses, with different names, addresses, emails, etc, this would never work.

 

Not to mention the $200 match drips out at a 4% clip. So every $25 you play you get $1 of bonus. So to even earn one $200 bonus you would have to play $5000 in action before it expires. Obviously some guys play much bigger volume than this, but just making a point that I'm not sure the bonus explanation is really worth it if you are already a winning player playing that type of volume.

 

This whole thing is nothing more than these big contests with 200k+ entries are lotteries. This guy hit the lottery. Did he do it 3 times? No. He did it once. He just used that same lineup multiple times in different contests, just like many people do. Is he a new player? Yes. Was there probably 10,000+ other new players last week (and especially the week before) that lost and no one talks about? Yes.

The attorney generals should be going after them for their deposit bonuses which are nothing of the sort. They advertise potential bonuses as real bonuses which I think is a problem.

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There's no new player to DFS that wins a tourny. Absolutely none.

 

Knowing to be THAT contrarian takes practice with GPPs.

 

I smell BS

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The attorney generals should be going after them for their deposit bonuses which are nothing of the sort. They advertise potential bonuses as real bonuses which I think is a problem.

 

Agreed. They have already faced many lawsuits on the issue, and may have even settled on some. It's why you now hear on the commercials "100% deposit bonus up to $1000 THAT YOU EARN WHILE YOU PLAY." It's always been in the fine print/disclaimers when you sign up, but their commercial advertising definitely made you believe otherwise.

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There's no new player to DFS that wins a tourny. Absolutely none.

 

Knowing to be THAT contrarian takes practice with GPPs.

 

I smell BS

 

 

I haven't seen the full lineup yet (I only played the $5MM contest, WFFC qualifiers, and cash games). Just heard mention of the contrarian picks of Vereen and Crabtree. But if this person had some combination like Tom Brady or Big Ben (or Palmer with Fitzgerald) with Antonio Brown, Julian Edelman, Rob Gronkowski, etc. and then just "filled in" with cheaper plays elsewhere, they weren't really that contrarian. They just played the guys they wanted and then found guys that fit around them. Then hit lightning in a bottle when those "fill ins" went off.

 

Also, anyone can look at a GPP with over 200k entries and realize going with the crowd is probably not going to set you apart from the field. Sometimes it takes awhile to train your mind that way, but it's always been the case.

 

For example, the guy that won the $1 million had Big Ben, Adrian Peterson, Antonio Brown, Larry Fitzgerald, Rob Gronkowski. That took up $40,800 of cap. Maybe Fitzgerald wasn't a stud play, but he was cheap at $5900, and the Cards had a great matchup (unfortunately I used John Brown everywhere). Fill in with Josh Brown (min priced kicker) and NY Jets D. That brings the total to $49,800. So he only had $10,200 to spend on another RB and another WR. Travis Benjamin and Dion Lewis look very contrarian and both were under 1.0% owned. But when you are looking at options in that low price range, and both guys were coming off good week 1's, is it that inconceivable that this person would land on them to fill out their roster?

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The lineup isn't the problem man. The problem is a brand new guy, with no previous expierence on his account, creating the winning roster with one shotand no other lineups at all and entering the same one in 3 big money tournaments.. Are you not reading this ? That's the issue, we've already beat it in the ground. If the guy had previous weeks of play or even other losing lineups. But really, to say the guy made an account, made one lineup, entered the same one in 3, and win, is ridiculous.

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[i see that some comments about the winner’s lineup have just been made but here goes…]

 

On the other thread someone commented “when I look at the ‘big winner’ and see his lineup, red flags go up all over the place. Something is rotten in Fantasyville.”

 

But the more I look at this lineup, the more defensible it becomes.

 

Who could argue with a Brady-Gronk stack ? It carries the added benefit that a date with the BUF defense on the road would probably make this the least crowded week of the year for those who desire some Brady-Gronk action.

 

DeAngelo Williams – had a surprisingly good week 1. Riding the hot hand is a popular play just as many expected that Hyde and Abdullah would receive heavy week 2 ownership.

 

Shane Vereen – ATL vs NYG was expected to be an aerial shootout. Why not ride NYG’s passing down back ?

 

Antonio Brown – arguably the premier name in all of Fantasy. Nuff said.

 

Michael Crabtree – see below.

 

Larry Fitzgerald – had a sparkling week 1 and would have a hot QB throwing to him against one of the softer pass defenses in the land. For these reasons I even owned himself myself in my week 2 DFS plays, heavily. Unfortunately, my “chalk” plays elsewhere kept me from clearing the bar. As I look at the suspect’s lineup, Antonio Brown is the only other name I overlapped with, but more lightly.

 

Sebastian Janikowski – a reliable veteran and the BAL defense was strong enough to create the expectation that OAK could have more FG attempts than TDs.

 

NE DEF – Shady wasn’t at 100%, an inexperienced QB was playing, and Belichick is a master at negating an opposing offense’s strength.

 

 

Now, Crabtree, who’s been off his best form for about a year now, was the selection that had me raising my eyebow, especially given his surprising outburst of production. Since Villain had $200 left in cap space to play with, I began looking through Fanduel’s salary list to see who else a reasonable person could have been expected to throw in as the cheapest receiver. I settled on Allen Robinson, at $5700, as the “chalkiest” selection.

 

Well, it turns out that Robinson had an off game in week 1 and was only targeted 6 times. Crabtree was targeted 8 times that week. That was enough for me to stipulate that I could see Crabtree as a reasonable selection. Secondly, Robinson happened to score more points here in week 2 than Crabtree did. 31.7 points to Crabtree’s 21.6. So Villain could have filled out his salary cap to the max with a selection of Robinson and scored 10 more points, and perhaps more importantly since Robinson had a much higher ADP than Crabtree did, received less scrutiny (if he was fudging his lineup) for a selection of Robinson than he did for Crabtree.

 

The winner's lineup could very well be legit.

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[i see that some comments about the winner’s lineup have just been made but here goes…]

 

On the other thread someone commented “when I look at the ‘big winner’ and see his lineup, red flags go up all over the place. Something is rotten in Fantasyville.”

 

But the more I look at this lineup, the more defensible it becomes.

 

Who could argue with a Brady-Gronk stack ? It carries the added benefit that a date with the BUF defense on the road would probably make this the least crowded week of the year for those who desire some Brady-Gronk action.

 

DeAngelo Williams – had a surprisingly good week 1. Riding the hot hand is a popular play just as many expected that Hyde and Abdullah would receive heavy week 2 ownership.

 

Shane Vereen – ATL vs NYG was expected to be an aerial shootout. Why not ride NYG’s passing down back ?

 

Antonio Brown – arguably the premier name in all of Fantasy. Nuff said.

 

Michael Crabtree – see below.

 

Larry Fitzgerald – had a sparkling week 1 and would have a hot QB throwing to him against one of the softer pass defenses in the land. For these reasons I even owned himself myself in my week 2 DFS plays, heavily. Unfortunately, my “chalk” plays elsewhere kept me from clearing the bar. As I look at the suspect’s lineup, Antonio Brown is the only other name I overlapped with, but more lightly.

 

Sebastian Janikowski – a reliable veteran and the BAL defense was strong enough to create the expectation that OAK could have more FG attempts than TDs.

 

NE DEF – Shady wasn’t at 100%, an inexperienced QB was playing, and Belichick is a master at negating an opposing offense’s strength.

 

 

Now, Crabtree, who’s been off his best form for about a year now, was the selection that had me raising my eyebow, especially given his surprising outburst of production. Since Villain had $200 left in cap space to play with, I began looking through Fanduel’s salary list to see who else a reasonable person could have been expected to throw in as the cheapest receiver. I settled on Allen Robinson, at $5700, as the “chalkiest” selection.

 

Well, it turns out that Robinson had an off game in week 1 and was only targeted 6 times. Crabtree was targeted 8 times that week. That was enough for me to stipulate that I could see Crabtree as a reasonable selection. Secondly, Robinson happened to score more points here in week 2 than Crabtree did. 31.7 points to Crabtree’s 21.6. So Villain could have filled out his salary cap to the max with a selection of Robinson and scored 10 more points, and perhaps more importantly since Robinson had a much higher ADP than Crabtree did, received less scrutiny (if he was fudging his lineup) for a selection of Robinson than he did for Crabtree.

 

The winner's lineup could very well be legit.

 

I think he is arguing more that the guy only had 3 lineups and all of them won, rather than what the actual lineups were.

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I think he is arguing more that the guy only had 3 lineups and all of them won, rather than what the actual lineups were.

 

For what it's worth, Filthy confined his search to only the entrants who had cashed. That means there's roughly 80% of the entrants that have not been examined. Villain could easily have had some losing lineups buried in that long list.

 

Others have made the objection that the suspect was brand new to fantasy. We don't know that. He could well have been an active player over at Draft Kings. Myself, I've played lots at FanDuel but never at DK until they sent me an entry to a promo freeroll just last week.

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I was under the assumption you could search every players lineup history and that's why he knew the guy only entered 3 lineups that week and all 3 won ???

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I agree that playing 3 of the same lineups in 3 different big money tourney has fishy written all over it. But none of fantasy is skill... Lol You study all offseason, watch fantasy of TV, read all the articles imaginable, and you either a. Get an injury. Or b, lose to a guy who picked a defense in round 6 and a kicker in 7 lmao, I mean daily fantasy is exactly what everyone thinks it is... Luck. I bet if you took all 500 people from a football game and got a daily lineup before they walked in the gate, you'd have the same scenario. I'll keep playing, double up quadruple up and win a little at a time. And as long as I can come out even at the end of the year. I will have played all year for free and had a lot of fun doing it

 

But to the original post, 3 contest and 3 huge wins and he just joined, along with the other guy who finished 3rd in 3 contest and ONLY 3 contests by each is ridiculous.

You don't understand the game. A lineup that will win one major prize pool contest will likely be capable of winning another. The guy from the original post spent $9 ($5+$2+$2) to submit 3 long shot line ups (they were the same lineup). DFS is a completely different game from season long fantasy. If anybody wants to play DFS casually, this is definitely a good way to play.

 

The smaller tournaments and H2H can be played normally.

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I searched through all the pages of people that won in those events and the only entries he had were taking 1st ($100k) and 1st and 2nd ($20k x 2). VERY ODD to see someone nail it like that let alone use ONLY the 1 PM games. Guy was a member since Thursday (yes, I realize it might be a 2nd profile for someone) which only adds to the oddness of the situation.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

An excerpt from the original post.

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The lineup isn't the problem man. The problem is a brand new guy, with no previous expierence on his account, creating the winning roster with one shotand no other lineups at all and entering the same one in 3 big money tournaments.. Are you not reading this ? That's the issue, we've already beat it in the ground. If the guy had previous weeks of play or even other losing lineups. But really, to say the guy made an account, made one lineup, entered the same one in 3, and win, is ridiculous.

Do people ask if lottery winners have experience in losing lotteries or how many tickets they bought?

 

This kind of thinking is ridiculous.

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I was under the assumption you could search every players lineup history and that's why he knew the guy only entered 3 lineups that week and all 3 won ???

 

Ahh, I see what you're saying. I know you can scroll a list of all the contestants, ranked by current points. I might log on to FanDuel and see what you get when click on a contestant's name.

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Do people ask if lottery winners have experience in losing lotteries or how many tickets they bought?

 

This kind of thinking is ridiculous.

A game of luck vs a game of...

 

 

Oh right. Not a gambling site.

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A game of luck vs a game of...

 

 

Oh right. Not a gambling site.

Everything involves luck. The skill aspect is in picking of the players within the constraint of the salary cap.

 

Skill isn't watching TV or reading articles contrary to what SwampDonkey seems to think.

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lottery isn't supposed to be the same as fantasy because lottery is just numbers, no rhyme or reason

There is reason to that person's line up. Reason exists even if you, individually, can't see or understand it. Trying to score the most points out of such a large pool of people is as good as a lottery.

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I was under the assumption you could search every players lineup history and that's why he knew the guy only entered 3 lineups that week and all 3 won ???

 

Take Two - I went ahead and logged on to FanDuel and clicking on an opponent's name only brings back the lineup for the "place-in-line" spot that you clicked on. It doesn't show whether he has any other entries in the contest. Then when you click on the name when the lineup appears, you see player history. It just so happens when I clicked on the winner of a 28736 entry contest that the winner of the $2000 first prize was a .......member since last Friday. But the lineup was super solid, imo. I even had stakes in 4 of his players. It was a single-entry tourney so this was the only possible entry for him. The winner of a multi-entry contest I was in has been a member since Jan 2014 with loads of wins (cashes, not 1st's) scored across several different sports. To see if he had other entries would require me to make over 11,400 mouse clicks. Not gonna...

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The lineup isn't the problem man. The problem is a brand new guy, with no previous expierence on his account, creating the winning roster with one shotand no other lineups at all and entering the same one in 3 big money tournaments.. Are you not reading this ? That's the issue, we've already beat it in the ground. If the guy had previous weeks of play or even other losing lineups. But really, to say the guy made an account, made one lineup, entered the same one in 3, and win, is ridiculous.

I got this in an e-mail just a bit ago about the million dollar winner this week,he was a first timer according to the article.

 

For many, it took a few FanDuel contests to find a strategy that worked best before finding consistent success, but not Jeremiah1974db, who’s a self-proclaimed “big football buff,” according to Brent Holloway of Daily Fantasy Talk. While he heard of FanDuel before and actually made his first deposit all the way back in March, he didn’t play until our Week 2 Sunday Million contest over the weekend, and boy did he pick the right time to give it a try.

 

 

This article is about his million dollar line-up

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The lineup isn't the problem man. The problem is a brand new guy, with no previous expierence on his account, creating the winning roster with one shotand no other lineups at all and entering the same one in 3 big money tournaments.. Are you not reading this ? That's the issue, we've already beat it in the ground. If the guy had previous weeks of play or even other losing lineups. But really, to say the guy made an account, made one lineup, entered the same one in 3, and win, is ridiculous.

 

 

"Brand New" is completely subjective. You know nothing about this guy. He may have played on Draftstreet back in 2011-2012, eventually migrated over to Draftkings when they purchased Draftstreet, and now decided during NFL season to create a Fanduel account and spread his action out there as well.

 

Or he has played season long leagues for 15+ years, saw the thousands of Fanduel/Draftkings commercials, and decided to finally give it a try. Is he new to Fanduel? Yes. Does he know nothing about fantasy football? No, not at all.

 

As someone else said, he invested $9 total in those 3 entries. $9! It's not like he entered this lineup in the $1,065, $300, and $25 contests and took them all down. He spent $9. A lot of people make a lineup and enter it in multiple tournaments.

 

Someone already went through his lineup, but when you start with 3 logical, high priced guys in Brady, Antonio Brown, and Gronk, and then fill in from there, it's really not hard to figure out how he arrived at his final lineup. Deangelo Williams was a popular value play this week, same with Fitzgerald. Sometimes the prices just fit for other players and things work out (Vereen and Crabtree). For every guy that did what this guy did, there are thousands of others who took their $9 shot for the first time and lost. You aren't looking at that side of the coin, just focusing on this one guy who built a solid lineup and obviously had luck on his side as well.

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I still say that it looks and feels like a guy who won a $500 million mega millions jackpot by purchasing 1 ticket. Impossible? Of course not. Extremely unlikely, YES!

 

Add in that this is all done on a relatively new web based business platform with no monitoring or regulation and it is easy to speculate that it might not all be on the up and up. On the flip side, maybe it is and this is all just a matter or coincidence. Though, I tend to be a skeptic, and my spidey senses are pinging hard on these DFS.

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Update....

 

I did receive a reply from them telling me it's just a coincidence. I was also told that those guys had other entries in other contests that lost. So I'll take it but keep an eye out for the funny looking wins.

 

Also, I did only search through the winners but here's why. If the guy had multiple entries and knew enough to be THAT much to the contrary, he would have similar lineups and still cash in. He, as a new guy to Fanduel entered those contests once and hit the jackpot. I'm not the only one thinking "that's odd" and other times last year I've seen the same thing. I just happened to do more snooping this time.

 

Do with it what you will. I should also point out it's odd you can't see a contest's entrants unless you're in it.

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I still say that it looks and feels like a guy who won a $500 million mega millions jackpot by purchasing 1 ticket. Impossible? Of course not. Extremely unlikely, YES!

 

Add in that this is all done on a relatively new web based business platform with no monitoring or regulation and it is easy to speculate that it might not all be on the up and up. On the flip side, maybe it is and this is all just a matter or coincidence. Though, I tend to be a skeptic, and my spidey senses are pinging hard on these DFS.

It's extremely unlikely to win the lottery period.

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Look at these advertising spending #'s:

 

From August 1 to September 15, DraftKings spent $80 million on advertising; FanDuel spent $20 million.

http://fortune.com/2015/09/22/espn-draftkings-fanduel/

 

That's a lot of coin!

Their business model is acting as a platform (Think EBay). More people using it equal more money. They win regardless of who wins the contest, why bother with cheating if it ends up costing them users. There's no shortage of other companies trying to get in on DFS.

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There have been some pretty good articles written about big corporations, big time gamblers ,etc...taking over the daily games, especially the big money ones. Stay far away, unless you just want to lose your money. I still play the smaller ones though, don't think the fix would be in on those games! lol

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The lineup isn't the problem man. The problem is a brand new guy, with no previous expierence on his account, creating the winning roster with one shotand no other lineups at all and entering the same one in 3 big money tournaments.. Are you not reading this ? That's the issue, we've already beat it in the ground. If the guy had previous weeks of play or even other losing lineups. But really, to say the guy made an account, made one lineup, entered the same one in 3, and win, is ridiculous.

I've noticed this happens often over the last couple years I've played.

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Their business model is acting as a platform (Think EBay). More people using it equal more money. They win regardless of who wins the contest, why bother with cheating if it ends up costing them users. There's no shortage of other companies trying to get in on DFS.

why bother with cheating

Same reason pigs eat so much; because it's there.

 

Pigs get fed and hogs get slaughtered. Greed knows no bounds.

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There have been some pretty good articles written about big corporations, big time gamblers ,etc...taking over the daily games, especially the big money ones. Stay far away, unless you just want to lose your money. I still play the smaller ones though, don't think the fix would be in on those games! lol

I think you have a good point. In today's day and age, you are not only competing against other players but also computers and computer algorithms. You have HFT algos in the stock market and just about every sport has some sort of handicapping software for it from football to horse racing. Even if everything else is legit, the odds are stacked against you in regards to the big money tourneys. I'm sure these products aren't used for the small money tourneys or 50/50 leagues, etc. It doesn't mean you can't win, it just means your chances are much smaller than they could be.

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Same reason pigs eat so much; because it's there.

 

Pigs get fed and hogs get slaughtered. Greed knows no bounds.

That's fine if that's your outlook. The problem is that the "evidence" that you using is basically what's going to happen most weeks. It is a lack of understanding of how the game is by design.

 

- Players submitting the same line up multiple times in one tournament and multiple tournaments. (If you hit you win significantly more and if you miss it's a minor loss of a few bucks)

- Casual/new players will probably only take time to come up with ONE line up and commit a small amount of money for fun

- Large number of players every week

- The winning line up must have a few long shot picks by design of the salary cap model + the large number of players. A consensus well-built line up outperforming all expectations will only result in splits.

 

This will happen every week regardless of whether or not foul play exist.

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I understand the game setup just fine but apparently don't share your trust when it comes to comes to coincidences. When I hear a quack, I assume there's a duck nearby.

 

Odd new players taking jackpots with single entries with a couple long shots in that single entry SHOULD make you ponder the authenticity of the results. If not, may I show you a beachfront condo I'm selling in Kentucky?

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Then, I find this: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-10/you-aren-t-good-enough-to-win-money-playing-daily-fantasy-football

 

I'd say, if you're going to play then avoid the big money tourneys. Those mathmeticians have built software and are investing 6 figures to ensure they win the bulk of the money. Wow!

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I understand the game setup just fine but apparently don't share your trust when it comes to comes to coincidences. When I hear a quack, I assume there's a duck nearby.

 

Odd new players taking jackpots with single entries with a couple long shots in that single entry SHOULD make you ponder the authenticity of the results. If not, may I show you a beachfront condo I'm selling in Kentucky?

It's not a coincidence... If you understood the game setup then you would know there's nothing odd about a) new player (we have no info beyond new to the specific site) b)with a few long shot players (which will be in every winning lineup for major prize pool tournaments).

 

Look at every winning line up of Guaranteed Prizepool tournaments this season. Without long shots you end up with splits.

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Then, I find this: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-10/you-aren-t-good-enough-to-win-money-playing-daily-fantasy-football

 

I'd say, if you're going to play then avoid the big money tourneys. Those mathmeticians have built software and are investing 6 figures to ensure they win the bulk of the money. Wow!

 

A heavy underlying theme to that article is that DFS is an endeavor which lends itself to skill-based approaches. That it's an entirely different animal from the lottery, roulette, or slot machines; which the mathematicians aren't going to waste a minute of software development time on.

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