Golf Majors: Predict How Many Each Player Will Ultimately Win

[cbfalcon 824]

I'm just taking Fumble's list and editing it for the guys I have an opinion about.

 

Dustin Johnson - 4....He can simply overpower too many courses, and his swing is more long and fluid than it is violent. So I don' see injury being an issues.

 

Jon Rahm - 1

 

Justin Thomas- 2....I like JT, but he is so small which requires him to swing very violently. A lot could go wrong there. Plus I'm not totally sure about his head yet.

 

Jordan Spieth - 7....He will win at least 2 more green jackets and another US Open. Yes, he gets the grand slam as well.

 

Justin Rose- 1...That's all she wrote for Rose.

 

Hideki Matsuyama - 1

 

Rickie Fowler - 2...When he finally breaks through, he'll get another quickly. The entire tour will celebrate for a month, as he may be the most beloved player ever by his competitors/friends.

 

Jason Day - 1.....The David Duval of this generation. Injuries will always be an issue.

 

Rory McIlroy- 9...The most physically gifted golfer since Tiger....In my view, nothing about his swing has ever looked violent at all, in that there is zero tension (tension creates injury)......Rory's weakness he is loses motivation when things aren't going well. This will likely cost him a couple majors.....But his strength is that when he starts feeling it and getting that bounce in his step (Rory, Tiger, and Spieth are the 3 guys that come to mind in which you can visually see their ego on their face and in their movements once they are on) , he starts thinking he is a man among boys (and he isn't wrong)....He will have another 2-3 year hot stretch in which he grabs 3-4 more majors, then a random win in his late 30s. BUT, I have him at less than 50/50 to get that Masters, as he seems destined to always have some golf tragedy as part of his legacy (similar to Phil)

 

Brooks Koepka - 1...He got his. That's it.

 

Sergio Garcia- 1.....I am glad he got his Masters, but I've never seen a guy look so shaky and gaggy on putts in a won major. I do think the monkey lifted could solve that, but I'll bet against it.

 

Henrik Stenson- 1...He shall always be known as the guy that robbed Phil.

 

Tommy Fleetwood- 2.....He seems like a guy that'll get a British and win a random PGA in a playoff against a no name.

 

Paul Casey- 0...Is he still out there?

 

Marc Leishman- 0...Lets not be ridiculous.

 

Matt Kuchar- 1...See the career of Darren Clarke

 

Patrick Reed- 0....Fatty Patty, I'd like to introduce you to Meaty Monty. You two will have a lot to talk about.

 

Adam Scott- 1.....Think about this....a guy THIS good looking with an Aussie accent, and yet we don't have a storied history of his dating hot chicks....That's a guy with no ambition. He is lucky he got 1.

 

Branden Grace- 0...Don't be silly.

 

Louis Oosthuzien- 1...He'd rather not win another major than have to practice.

 

Charl Schwartzel- 1....meh

 

Bubba Watson- 2...maybe one more Masters, but it would have to be within the next 2-3 years. With such a small window, odds say no.

 

Patrick Cantlay- 0....Haven't seen enough.

 

Webb Simpson- 1

 

Jason Dufner- 1

 

Martin Kaymer- 2

 

Phil Mickelson- 6....He won't get his slam, but he has that Augusta thing going on that allows guys like Couples, Olzabel, Cabrera, etc to contend there until they are 55. 1 more Masters for Philly Dilly..

 

Tiger Woods- 18....Yeah, this happens if there are no more back problems. He also has that Augusta thing going on x10. In his 19 Masters since turning pro, 11 top 5s and 17 top 25s. We've already seen that his short game is ready. That means 2 more wins there the next decade. Mix in a British Open in which he plays stingers for 4 straight days, and he is 1 away from Jack...... At that point the PGA will set up every course perfectly designed without trees in only 1 spot per hole, that being the spot Tiger is most statistically likely to miss. Eventually a Major catches a big weather forecast, at which point the PGA puts Tiger on the right side of the draw while putting every other top 30 player on the opposite side of the draw...Mix in a couple DJ type rulings in which another contender's ball appears to move, and boom. Tiger ties Jack.

[cbfalcon 824]

 

 

Didn't seem like it was that many.

 

DJ will have 5 or 6 I think before all is said and done. Too much talent and isn't a head case like someone like Rickie or Stenson who I think you have pegged just about right.

 

I'll be bummed if Kooch never wins one, the Open last year might've been his best shot

 

Man.....I considered DJ to be the biggest head case of all time after some of his crazy collapses and bad breaks until he got 1.

[dain11279 928]

This will be a fun thread to bump in 10 years or so

[Cruzer 1,992]

Tommy Fleetwood

 

Of all the names listed, if I had to hitch my wagon to 1 guy (not named spieth or rory) to win at least 2 majors going forward - it would be Fleetwood... This kid has it all - really good ball striker, great putter, the no fear gene, perfect temperament, a game that travels on both sides of the pond....he checks every box on the Major winner checklist.

 

Others:

 

Rickie Fowler: this kid was born to win PGA Championships... I'd be shocked if he didn't win at least 1, if not 2.

 

Hideki Matsuyama: this kid is built to win at Augusta... Long/high ball hitter and a streaky putter... Then again, so was Ernie Els...

 

Brian Harman: I could easily see this guy winning a PGA.

 

Paul Casey: Seriously, how in the hell has he not won at least 2 by now? He has the game to win at Augusta, the Open and any PGA venue they host at.. He's already 40, he may have missed his window.

 

Marc Leishman: Another with the game to win at Augusta, the Open or the PGA... I would bet he wins at least 1 down the road.

 

Rafa Cabrera Bello: And another with the game to win at Augusta, the Open or the PGA... I could easily see this kid win at least 2.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

Don't think he has any chance of a major because he can't drive. His long irons and putter used to bail him out. His body isn't up to 2-4 days of playing from the rough at the US Open.

Masters

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

I think I gave DJ too many with 7. Think I'm looking too much at recent form and world 1 status rather than the fact he turns 34 in June and only has 1 major.

 

Think I'll flip flop Dustin and jutin. I can see thomas winning 6 more before DJ.

[Fumbleweed 426]

Fun to re-visit this...even just a year later. CBF projected that Brooks Koepka would only win one major. He's now won three. Neither he nor I saw Patrick Reed winning one (he did). I think I am going to modify my predictions one year later to see how/if things have changed. 

[Fumbleweed 426]

Thought it might be sorta fun to make a list of players and project how many majors each will ultimately win in their careers. Who knows really, but it's fun to speculate from time to time. Here's my projections for what little they are worth:

 

Dustin Johnson- 3;  2019 update: 4

 

Jon Rahm- 2; 2019 update: 3

 

Justin Thomas- 5; 2019 update: 5

 

Jordan Spieth- 8; 2019 update: 5

 

Justin Rose- 2; 2019 update: 3

 

Hideki Matsuyama- 2; 2019 update: 2

 

Rickie Fowler- 1; 2019 update: 2

 

Jason Day- 3; 2019 update: 2

 

Rory McIlroy- 7; 2019 update: 7

 

Brooks Koepka- 2; 2019 update: 4

 

Sergio Garcia- 2; 2019 update: 1

 

Henrik Stenson- 1; 2019 update: 1

 

Tommy Fleetwood- 1; 2019 update: 1

 

Paul Casey- 0 (same)

 

Marc Leishman- 1; 2019 update: 1

 

Matt Kuchar- 0 (same)

 

Patrick Reed- 0: 2019 update: 1

 

Adam Scott- 2; 2019 update: 2

 

Branden Grace- 1; 2019 update: 0

 

Louis Oosthuzien- 2; 2019 update: 2

 

Charl Schwartzel- 1; 2019 update: 1

 

Bubba Watson- 2; 2019 update: 2

 

Patrick Cantlay- 1; 2019 update: 1

 

Webb Simpson- 1; 2019 update: 1

 

Jason Dufner- 1; 2019 update: 1

 

Martin Kaymer- 2; 2019 update: 2

 

Phil Mickelson- 6; 2019 update: 5

 

Tiger Woods- 14; 2019 update: 14

 

This isn't how many they will win from now on...it's how many they'll win for their careers. So, I am saying thus that guys like Bubba, Dufner, Schwartzel, Webb, and Kaymer for example, won't win any more majors. Thoughts?

[Fumbleweed 426]

Biggest drop is obviously Spieth. Hard to see him being an 8-time major winner with all that he's struggling with right now. I think he'll right the ship and win a couple more eventually, but I don't think he'll ever be the #1 player in the world again in his career. 

[Fumbleweed 426]

Most interesting names to add to the original list are DeChambeau and Schauffele. I feel almost certain that both will eventually claim at least one major. 

[edjr 5,564]

This year?

[Fumbleweed 426]

No...over the course of their careers. Should have clarified that. 

[Cruzer 1,992]

On ‎2‎/‎27‎/‎2018 at 9:26 PM, Cruzer said:

Wow, some of you guys hand out majors like Halloween candy.

Bcoz of Rahm's temperament, I think he's more likely to win zero than he is 2 or more... I'd also be surprised if Rose, Day or Serg ever won another one.. Rory and Spieth, I could easily see racking up several more.

I'll stick with this.

[edjr 5,564]

On 2/27/2018 at 10:26 AM, Fumbleweed said:

Thought it might be sorta fun to make a list of players and project how many majors each will ultimately win in their careers. Who knows really, but it's fun to speculate from time to time. Here's my projections for what little they are worth:

 

 

Jordan Spieth- 8

 

 

JFC.  

[TimmySmith 2,782]

On 2/27/2018 at 10:31 AM, TimmySmith said:

Too many for Rory. Doubt he'll win another.

 

I can't imagine DJ not winning 1 year on average for another 5 years.

Nailed it (so far).  Of course I didn't know the LIV was looming.  

[edjr 5,564]

Quote

Jason Dufner- 1

Amanda has a better chance at winning a major

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

On 2/27/2018 at 7:42 PM, WhiteWonder said:

good thread Fumble.

 

I think I'm going to end up being way too generous in my predictions. For starters, while there seems to be less "random" guys that creep and nab one (Jimmy Walker) there is also more overall talent in golf right now which means you'll have all these young guns fighting it out for 4 each year, with some of the vets still capable of catching lightning (ZJ, Phil, Stenson, Sergio, maybe even Eldrick) plus the lesser but still really talented Euro guys who can steal some like Martin Kaymer who seems to come out of nowhere and blitz a field on US soil in a big event every now and then.

 

*side note* this works as a great case study for why I slightly devalue Federer's amount of grand slams. You could never have a thread like this for Tennis and include so many names.

 

Rahm is the perfect example. So young, so talented. Doesn't have the mental makeup to shake off mistakes to win, say, a US Open yet but I can't see myself putting him down for less than 4

 

Rahm - 4

 

Dustin - 7 (people forget hes 34 in June. 1 a year for the next 6 years puts him at 40ish, and 1 a year is tough with these fields. I have a hard time giving anyone 2 in a year)

 

Rory - 7 (already has 4 but he seems a mess and seems to be going to route of Tiger in terms of body/overtraining/injuries. 3 more may be generous)

 

Spieth - 10 (24 years old with 3 under his belt. He seems like possibly the most driven of the young guys out there and least likely to vanish for spells)

 

Rickie - 1 (he'll get his British or a random PGA)

 

Justin Thomas - 5 (same age as Jordan but 1 under his belt. This may be low. I could easily flip flop Justin and Dustin based on age alone)

 

Phil - 7 (I know I know, total homer projection. Im not predicting the elusive US Open but do you really not see him competing at Augusta and various British venues until 53?)

 

Tiger - 15 (If he stays healthy and continues playing and improving as he has been, i'm willing to give him one more for his fanboys before his next surgery)

 

Zach Johnson - 4 (at 42, I feel like he has the time, grit and grind to scratch out 2 more)

 

Matt Kuchar - 0 (sad to say it, one of the good guys. Don't see him getting it done. Needs a Jimmy Walker week)

 

Stenson - 1 (Think he just blew his wad in the duel with Phil. He hasn't really done anything since. Only 41 though)

 

King Louis - 1 (my possible relative. Feels like he has stagnated. Still a great game but a while since hes trended upward. He'll compete, not sure another W is in the cards)

 

Jason Day - 3 (the next aussie to not quite live up the expectations ala my man Greg Norman. I think he'll grab his Masters and one more)

 

Rose - 2

 

Matsuyama - 1

 

Garcia - 1 (if he grabs another it will be a second Green Jacket due to comfort. He needs that comfort level)

 

Bubba - 3 (grabs a 3rd Masters)

 

Fleetwood - 2 (definitely will win a British. Maybe 2)

 

Keopka - 2 (too much talent not to win one more)

 

Patrick Reed - 1 (like Rickie, I think he'll grab his one. a PGA makes the most sense. He has the fire for a US Open, just not sure about between the ears for 4 rounds)

Well, 4 years later.... I was generous on the high end in most cases, like I said i probably was.  Looks like I was at least correct on Louis, Reed, Garcia, Matsuyama, Stenson, Kuchar, and Tiger thus far.  Not that any of those were all that hard to predict... I basically had them staying where they were aside from calling wins for Reed and Hideki....

... I did kind of nail Tiger like a Perkins waitress though. 

and Phil got a 6th before being done 

I would still feel good about my numbers on Thomas, Rory and Rahm

[Reality 2,710]

Tough thing to predict, obviously but, good read. Some hilarious takes.

[edjr 5,564]

On 2/27/2018 at 2:14 PM, tanatastic said:

Tiger will never win another major, period.

Nailed it. 

[Fumbleweed 426]

4 hours ago, edjr said:

Amanda has a better chance at winning a major

This was total for Dufner. When I said 1, I meant the one he already had. 

[Fumbleweed 426]

4 hours ago, edjr said:

JFC.  

I modified it to 5. I still think that's accurate. 

[edjr 5,564]

3 minutes ago, Fumbleweed said:

This was total for Dufner. When I said 1, I meant the one he already had. 

He has a major?   Thought the only trophy he had was his ex

[Fumbleweed 426]

Just now, edjr said:

He has a major?   

PGA Championship- 2013

[edjr 5,564]

4 minutes ago, Fumbleweed said:

PGA Championship- 2013

That is how insignificant that was

[listen2me 23 1,542]

5 minutes ago, edjr said:

That is how insignificant that was

Hey that was at Oak Hill.  Take it back!

[edjr 5,564]

Just now, listen2me 23 said:

Hey that was at Oak Hill.  Take it back!

Oat Milk is more memorable

[dain11279 928]

1 hour ago, Fumbleweed said:

PGA Championship- 2013

I went to that tourney for Saturdays round, worst viewing experience I’ve ever seen watching pro golf. Firestone is miles better.

[bostonlager 2,463]

When I talk majors I like to go head to head or over under. 

Who ends their career with more?

Scheffler vs Morikawa

Justin Thomas vs Jordan Spieth 

 

Will Zalatoris career majors o/u 1.5 or o/u 2.5

[huskyhater75 242]

Jack Nicklaus-GREATEST EVER...............19 Majors

 

    NOBODY is good enough to beat THAT!

[edjr 5,564]

13 hours ago, bostonlager said:

When I talk majors I like to go head to head or over under. 

Who ends their career with more?

Scheffler vs Morikawa

Justin Thomas vs Jordan Spieth 

 

Will Zalatoris career majors o/u 1.5 or o/u 2.5

LIV?  

[edjr 5,564]

9 hours ago, huskyhater75 said:

Jack Nicklaus-GREATEST EVER...............19 Majors

 

    NOBODY is good enough to beat THAT!

Have you seen Tiger play lately? Piece of cake my man