kujerry 9 Posted June 21, 2018 Here's the situation. 14 team 2 keeper league. PPR, Start: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR/RB/TE, D, K I have the 5th pick in the upcoming draft. Keepers are D. Johnson, Lose my 1st Rounder M. Gordon, Lose my 4th Rounder So I trade D.Johnson and my 10th &13th round pick I get His 2nd Round, 3rd Round and 6th round picks So I would get two picks in the 2nd, two picks in the 3rd and 2 picks in the 6th The team offering the trade has the 14th pick in the draft. He is keeping L. Bell, so he is willing to give up all those picks to pair up Bell and Johnson he won't have a pick until round 4 Now i won't have a first round pick since D. Johnson is in that spot. Keeping Melvin gordon makes up for losing my first rounder and I'm gaining 2 picks in the 2nd, 3rd, and 6th, hope its understandable, its kind of a different trade starting the year. thanks Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Frozenbeernuts 1,653 Posted June 21, 2018 14 team 2 keeper. So approximately the top 28 players are off the board. Idk how many people have 1st round picks still available, let's say 7, so that's 35 players off the board until you pick next. Nope, not imo. Johnson is the best rb in the league. At worst top 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kopy 496 Posted June 21, 2018 14 team 2 keeper. So approximately the top 28 players are off the board. Idk how many people have 1st round picks still available, let's say 7, so that's 35 players off the board until you pick next. Nope, not imo. Johnson is the best rb in the league. At worst top 2I was going to say the same thing here.Everything makes sense on both sides of the trade. It's after that when I would be alittle worried. Because even though you got 2-2's and 2-3's. Once you factor in all the keepers, I'm not so sure the talent depth would be there to justify trading DJ. And I think that's why he's offering that type of deal. Because he's well aware of this. To be quit honest. Even though I'm not his biggest fan. I don't think id even do that deal for Gordon. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
oldtimer 84 Posted June 27, 2018 14 team 2 keeper. So approximately the top 28 players are off the board. Idk how many people have 1st round picks still available, let's say 7, so that's 35 players off the board until you pick next. Nope, not imo. Johnson is the best rb in the league. At worst top 2 I may consider the deal. This is why; In a Keeper League, it isn't necessarily the case that the top 28 players are off the board. What you need to look at is the RB position and how many of them are going to be off the board. The top 28 overall players do not include a QB, however, In most keeper leagues, several of the top QB's are often kept. So, between 3 to 4 QB's being kept, at least one or two owners keeping someone that isn't in the top 28, and you likely have the top 20-22 guys off the board. Do you start two RB's? Is it a SuperFlex league? You can get quality WR's later this year, but in the drafts I have participated in, the top RB's FLY off the board. Even the rookies went higher than their current ADP. Just food for thought. If I was certain I could get another RB with my first, I would take this deal. If not, I'd pass. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Frozenbeernuts 1,653 Posted June 27, 2018 I may consider the deal. This is why; In a Keeper League, it isn't necessarily the case that the top 28 players are off the board. What you need to look at is the RB position and how many of them are going to be off the board. The top 28 overall players do not include a QB, however, In most keeper leagues, several of the top QB's are often kept. So, between 3 to 4 QB's being kept, at least one or two owners keeping someone that isn't in the top 28, and you likely have the top 20-22 guys off the board. Do you start two RB's? Is it a SuperFlex league? You can get quality WR's later this year, but in the drafts I have participated in, the top RB's FLY off the board. Even the rookies went higher than their current ADP. Just food for thought. If I was certain I could get another RB with my first, I would take this deal. If not, I'd pass. I would imagine the top running backs are all being kept. In a 14 team league, one super star on a roster can make all the difference in a season. If this was a 10 team. League, it would be a bit different, although I still wouldn't do it. DJohns is an absolute monster. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
seafoam1 1,886 Posted June 27, 2018 I sometimes think that some fantasy players would rather have the fun of having hope that the rookie players they pick hit it big over anyone else currently in the league. Especially when drafting WRs, TEs, QBs at an ADP that would be considered 3rd, 4th, 5th round redraft picks over having an NFL proven young stud RB. WRs, QBs, and TEs all usually need a few years before you can begin to see if they are going to be good or not. Let's say you are just going to use those extra 3 picks to grab RBs. What are the chances one of them become a David Johnson? Even David Johnson didn't go in the 3rd, 4th, or 5th rounds in a redraft in his rookie year. I got him for the minimum auction value in my contract keeper league when he was a rookie. That's what a longshot it is to find a superstar at times later in the draft. There are definitely players that go on to be great that come out every year later in the draft, but the chances of getting them is not all that great. There are so many factors that go into it. And Johnson only has 2 full seasons of playing time in his NFL career. Given that his injury was only a wrist deal, there is not even any risk around that this year. And if you don't want him because his team is not being considered that great, think about what type of offensive garbage Barkley is going to be in this year? And no one knows if he will even be any good in the NFL. All in all, if you don't really want Johnson, wait til after the draft and offer up trades based upon your own view of the players on other teams rather than taking what falls to you in the draft. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ralphster 274 Posted June 27, 2018 @ OP: Are you going to have prior knowledge of the players being kept so you'll know who's available? Because 2.05, 2.14, 3.05, 3.14 no 4th, 5.05, 6.05 & 6.14 does not add up to enough value without a much better idea of who's going to be there in the 2nd & 3rd rounds. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kujerry 9 Posted June 28, 2018 @ OP: Are you going to have prior knowledge of the players being kept so you'll know who's available? Because 2.05, 2.14, 3.05, 3.14 no 4th, 5.05, 6.05 & 6.14 does not add up to enough value without a much better idea of who's going to be there in the 2nd & 3rd rounds. Yes I would know all keepers a week before draft. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ray_T 603 Posted July 3, 2018 @ OP: Are you going to have prior knowledge of the players being kept so you'll know who's available? Because 2.05, 2.14, 3.05, 3.14 no 4th, 5.05, 6.05 & 6.14 does not add up to enough value without a much better idea of who's going to be there in the 2nd & 3rd rounds. This. and I'd go so far as to say no first round pick=you probably shouldnt even think about this deal. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
polecatt 405 Posted July 5, 2018 I know DJ and his potential but I would just have a very hard time giving up so much for a guy who has really only had one good season, two years ago, coming off a season ending injury. I would do this deal. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Frozenbeernuts 1,653 Posted July 5, 2018 I know DJ and his potential but I would just have a very hard time giving up so much for a guy who has really only had one good season, two years ago, coming off a season ending injury. I would do this deal. One great season and another half of a great season. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
polecatt 405 Posted July 5, 2018 So one and a half good seasons and one and a half bad Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Frozenbeernuts 1,653 Posted July 5, 2018 So one and a half good seasons and one and a half bad If you want to get technical, the first half of his rookie year he was still incredible. If you look at his production per touch it was excellent Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
polecatt 405 Posted July 5, 2018 If you want to get technical, the first half of his rookie year he was still incredible. If you look at his production per touch it was excellent Maybe so but in most leagues you get points for total numbers not per touch averages Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Frozenbeernuts 1,653 Posted July 5, 2018 Maybe so but in most leagues you get points for total numbers not per touch averages Awesome Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
seafoam1 1,886 Posted July 5, 2018 So one and a half good seasons and one and a half bad One and a half bad? What were those? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,516 Posted July 6, 2018 Here's the situation. 14 team 2 keeper league. PPR, Start: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR/RB/TE, D, K I have the 5th pick in the upcoming draft. Keepers are D. Johnson, Lose my 1st Rounder M. Gordon, Lose my 4th Rounder So I trade D.Johnson and my 10th &13th round pick I get His 2nd Round, 3rd Round and 6th round picks So I would get two picks in the 2nd, two picks in the 3rd and 2 picks in the 6th The team offering the trade has the 14th pick in the draft. He is keeping L. Bell, so he is willing to give up all those picks to pair up Bell and Johnson he won't have a pick until round 4 Now i won't have a first round pick since D. Johnson is in that spot. Keeping Melvin gordon makes up for losing my first rounder and I'm gaining 2 picks in the 2nd, 3rd, and 6th, hope its understandable, its kind of a different trade starting the year. thanks Proverbs 18:21. For what it’s worth, I think I would keep the two first round Rbs. Great question, thanks. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
polecatt 405 Posted July 6, 2018 One and a half bad? What were those? He wasn't very good last season at all was he? His rookie season he was only good half a season. Do the math on that one... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
seafoam1 1,886 Posted July 6, 2018 He wasn't very good last season at all was he? His rookie season he was only good half a season. Do the math on that one... Ok. So you count a guy not playing as a reflection of him being a bad player. That's some solid work on your part. Maybe you can grab him in the late 8th round in your draft. That is if everyone in your league is as smart as you. Obviously Booker and Lacy and Tolbert and Burkhead etc., should all be drafted ahead of Johnson based on last year's results. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
polecatt 405 Posted July 6, 2018 Ok. So you count a guy not playing as a reflection of him being a bad player. That's some solid work on your part. Maybe you can grab him in the late 8th round in your draft. That is if everyone in your league is as smart as you. Obviously Booker and Lacy and Tolbert and Burkhead etc., should all be drafted ahead of Johnson based on last year's results. So you would consider last season a good season for him? I wish you were in my league... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
seafoam1 1,886 Posted July 6, 2018 So you would consider last season a good season for him? I wish you were in my league... Yes. I would draft David Johnson. Last year pre-injury and this year round 1. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
polecatt 405 Posted July 6, 2018 So you consider a guy who gets injured for the season in the first game as having a good season? I have never said he's not a good player or not even worth a high pick, I said I wouldn't trade the farm for a guy who has only been good half of the time. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lesjroza 70 Posted July 7, 2018 Here's the situation. 14 team 2 keeper league. PPR, Start: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR/RB/TE, D, K I have the 5th pick in the upcoming draft. Keepers are D. Johnson, Lose my 1st Rounder M. Gordon, Lose my 4th Rounder So I trade D.Johnson and my 10th &13th round pick I get His 2nd Round, 3rd Round and 6th round picks So I would get two picks in the 2nd, two picks in the 3rd and 2 picks in the 6th The team offering the trade has the 14th pick in the draft. He is keeping L. Bell, so he is willing to give up all those picks to pair up Bell and Johnson he won't have a pick until round 4 Now i won't have a first round pick since D. Johnson is in that spot. Keeping Melvin gordon makes up for losing my first rounder and I'm gaining 2 picks in the 2nd, 3rd, and 6th, hope its understandable, its kind of a different trade starting the year. thanks A crucial part of the equation is roster size. In a 14 team league, a team with a star and near elite- above average starters at every position can be just as overwhelming as a team with multiple stud starters in a 12 team league..........especially once the byes and injuries start to hit. If its a competitive league from top to bottom and depending on how much you are willing to weight this year vs the future.......... 16 roster slots stick with studs 18 slots about equal value on this deal 20+ roster slots, trade the stud and roll with the depth you will have The difference between how hard it is to get and maintain quality plays on the WW in competitive deep roster 14 team leagues compared to 12 team leagues is hard to appreciate until you experience it. Even in a deep league if there are a number of owners who are only half paying attention always stick with the studs because you will be able to easily improve and fill out your lineup over the course of the season. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ray_T 603 Posted July 13, 2018 for what it is worth I would draft him in round 1. no problem at all with that. he didnt just have one good season. he had one hell of a spectacular season where he blew the doors off. his rookie season was good, but not great in the first half, very good in the second half. Last year he was hurt, I'd suggest it is neither good nor bad because he didnt play. theres nothing to judge him on there. but the main reason I will draft him is that he passes the eye test. If you have watched him play you will realize the guy just does things other RB's cannot. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kent 228 Posted July 15, 2018 So you would consider last season a good season for him? I wish you were in my league... He didnt have a season last year. Youre being obtuse. I have him rated 1.1 by the way. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
scottsind 61 Posted July 15, 2018 A lot of insight in this thread. I am going to keep it simple and just say keep DJ. His potential wins you match ups by himself. Even if Arizona is horrible he will still eat and rack up yardage. I actually think he and Zeke have the best shots at fantasy MVP this year. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
polecatt 405 Posted July 15, 2018 He didnt have a season last year. Youre being obtuse. I have him rated 1.1 by the way. RB is loaded this season. No way I would spend the top pick on a guy who just missed a full season and is on a terrible offense. Certainly not when there are numerous RBs with just as much potential on good offenses and haven't been out of football for nearly two seasons. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
seafoam1 1,886 Posted July 15, 2018 RB is loaded this season. No way I would spend the top pick on a guy who just missed a full season and is on a terrible offense. Certainly not when there are numerous RBs with just as much potential on good offenses and haven't been out of football for nearly two seasons. Oh my. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kopy 496 Posted July 15, 2018 People spend so much time and effort trying to find the next Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes, LT2, ect.... Then when they finally find him. They want to let him go? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites