Is it time to get out of the market?

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

Market still going up with NASDAQ erasing all of this year's losses already.  A little surprising. I sold off my PYPL since it was riding real high today and it triggered my limit sell after a 30% increase in about 10 weeks.  I am still not sure that this is really stable, so I am going to sit a little more on the sidelines with some cash, but I could be missing out if this trend continues.

[NorthernVike 2,080]

2 minutes ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

Market still going up with NASDAQ erases all of this year's losses already.  A little surprising. I sold off my PYPL since it was riding real high today and it triggered my limit sell after a 30% increase in about 10 weeks.  I am still not sure that this is really stable, so I am going to sit a little more on the sidelines with some cash, but I could be missing out if this trend continues.

I currently have more cash on the sidelines than ever.  I still believe we will see the DOW below 20,000 before the end of the year.  Real damage has been done to the economy.  

[Leeson 54]

How would the market react if Trump got kung flu?

How would it react if he died from it?

[Utilit99 4,099]

10 minutes ago, Leeson said:

How would the market react if Trump got kung flu?

How would it react if he died from it?

It would dump into the toilet.

[Leeson 54]

11 minutes ago, Utilit99 said:

It would dump into the toilet.

Why? Because the POTUS is sick or dying? Or because it's Trump?

[Utilit99 4,099]

6 minutes ago, Leeson said:

Why? Because the POTUS is sick or dying? Or because it's Trump?

Because the left would take over in 2021 and socialism would be pushed beyond our wildest dreams. They would change to popular vote and the uneducated, not accomplished, poor or power hungry left would have a bigger voice than they should.

[nobody 2,040]

16 minutes ago, Leeson said:

Why? Because the POTUS is sick or dying? Or because it's Trump?

Because it's Trump.  He'll do anything and everything to make sure the market stays propped up.

[Hardcore troubadour 12,648]

7 minutes ago, nobody said:

Because it's Trump.  He'll do anything and everything to make sure the market stays propped up.

Yeah because you would have to go all the way back to Obama to find a president that did that. Eye roll. 

[Cdub100 3,381]

51 minutes ago, Utilit99 said:

It would dump into the toilet.

Correct. There is no denying the fact the market LOVES Trump. 

[Leeson 54]

1 hour ago, Utilit99 said:

Because the left would take over in 2021 and socialism would be pushed beyond our wildest dreams. They would change to popular vote and the uneducated, not accomplished, poor or power hungry left would have a bigger voice than they should.

Are you assuming that the left will never win another election? Aren't you just delaying the inevitable? 

57 minutes ago, nobody said:

Because it's Trump.  He'll do anything and everything to make sure the market stays propped up.

Who propped up the market before Trump came along? The stock market wasn't at 0 when Trump took office. Also, isn't propping the stock market up a form of socialism?

 

[Cdub100 3,381]

5 hours ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

Market still going up with NASDAQ erasing all of this year's losses already.  A little surprising. I sold off my PYPL since it was riding real high today and it triggered my limit sell after a 30% increase in about 10 weeks.  I am still not sure that this is really stable, so I am going to sit a little more on the sidelines with some cash, but I could be missing out if this trend continues.

Everyone was expecting a bad Q2. I look forward to the market continuing to climb the rest of the year. I followed my plan and despite a couple of fear moments, the only way I could have done better is if I had the charts from the future in front of me.

[Leeson 54]

If millions of people can be unemployed and the market goes up, why not fire everyone? 

[Hardcore troubadour 12,648]

I’ve learned over the years I don’t know much about the markets.  But this feels like a house of cards. 

[Cdub100 3,381]

Another great week in the market.

[Leeson 54]

17 hours ago, Cdub100 said:

Another great week in the market.

Can't argue the facts. But, I do wonder why.

A good example is CAT. What changed in the last month to make it go from $126 to $106, and then back to $112 yesterday? 

Next week it could be $126 or $90. Without reason. Doesn't really instill much confidence when investing.

[Hardcore troubadour 12,648]

Will companies not matching 401k’s have a significant effect on the market? 

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

15 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Will companies not matching 401k’s have a significant effect on the market? 

For companies that match, they don’t match 100%. It is usually a smaller amount, so I doubt it will have a significant impact. A bigger impact is that companies won’t have free cash for investments to grow their businesses.

[Hardcore troubadour 12,648]

Just now, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

For companies that match, they don’t match 100%. It is usually a smaller amount, so I doubt it will have a significant impact. A bigger impact is that companies won’t have free cash for investments to grow their businesses.

How about people not contributing? I’d assume that’s significantly lower as well. I don’t know how much that is, but is it already being factored in? 

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

5 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

How about people not contributing? I’d assume that’s significantly lower as well. I don’t know how much that is, but is it already being factored in? 

Well, if you are unemployed, you aren’t making money or contributions. 
 

As far as “factoring in”, what do you mean?  Do we think that current stock prices are taking that into account along with other long range negative impacts on businesses? I don’t think they are, but I have no idea why stock prices aren’t down even further right now.

[Hardcore troubadour 12,648]

16 minutes ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

Well, if you are unemployed, you aren’t making money or contributions. 
 

As far as “factoring in”, what do you mean?  Do we think that current stock prices are taking that into account along with other long range negative impacts on businesses? I don’t think they are, but I have no idea why stock prices aren’t down even further right now.

I don’t either.  It’s like I have said many times, I have been wrong before. But I keep adding one and one and the answer never seems to be two.  Will we be trading short term gains for a big loss when this settles down? Or will it continually be pumped up? 

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

1 minute ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

I don’t either.  It like I have said many times, I have been wrong before. But I keep adding one and one and the answer never seems to be two.  Will we be trading short term gains for a big loss when this settles down? Or will it continually be pumped up? 

I think we have run out of propping up. Trump and Congress want things to stay settled until November. I figure we find out after that point.

[Hardcore troubadour 12,648]

3 minutes ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

I think we have run out of propping up. Trump and Congress want things to stay settled until November. I figure we find out after that point.

Makes sense. 

[Leeson 54]

22 minutes ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

I think we have run out of propping up. Trump and Congress want things to stay settled until November. I figure we find out after that point.

Don't your first two sentences contradict each other? Without the propping, the market won't make it to November. 

Ultimately, I don't know that it will matter. If we see a second wave anywhere near what the first wave has done a lot of voters are going to lay the deaths, poor stock market, and economy at the feet of Trump. If you were a Liberal, you couldn't have created a greater shiit storm running up to an election. 

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

16 minutes ago, Leeson said:

Don't your first two sentences contradict each other? Without the propping, the market won't make it to November. 

Ultimately, I don't know that it will matter. If we see a second wave anywhere near what the first wave has done a lot of voters are going to lay the deaths, poor stock market, and economy at the feet of Trump. If you were a Liberal, you couldn't have created a greater shiit storm running up to an election. 

There is another bill that is forthcoming. Not sure if it will pass, but I think things will limp along until Fall and then we will see what happens with the virus.
 

Either way, I think the market can’t stay this high given the damage to the economy that has already happened. The fact that it has partially come back does not make sense to me, so what the hell do I know? 

[Cdub100 3,381]

1 hour ago, Leeson said:

Can't argue the facts. But, I do wonder why.

A good example is CAT. What changed in the last month to make it go from $126 to $106, and then back to $112 yesterday? 

Next week it could be $126 or $90. Without reason. Doesn't really instill much confidence when investing.

Fear.

[Cdub100 3,381]

49 minutes ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

I think we have run out of propping up. Trump and Congress want things to stay settled until November. I figure we find out after that point.

Nope the fed is just starting. Next up is junk bonds.

[nobody 2,040]

1 hour ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

How about people not contributing? I’d assume that’s significantly lower as well. I don’t know how much that is, but is it already being factored in? 

The people who are out of work probably weren't contributing very much to 401ks to begin with.

[bandrus1 413]

There is a ton left on the table if they wanted to.

 

You want to see the stock market go through the roof? Forgive outstanding student debt. The thing would explode

[nobody 2,040]

1 hour ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

I think we have run out of propping up. Trump and Congress want things to stay settled until November. I figure we find out after that point.

You're high if you think Trump is going to let the market fall.  He'll spend 10 trillion giving out free money before he lets that happen.

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

Just now, nobody said:

You're high if you think Trump is going to let the market fall.  He'll spend 10 trillion giving out free money before he lets that happen.

He can't control it.

[Leeson 54]

This is like "tax and spend". Just without the tax part. (yet)

[nobody 2,040]

Just now, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

He can't control it.

He's been doing a good job of controlling it so far.  There is no way the market should be this high.  A significant number of small businesses are going under thanks to the shutdown.  Unemployment is as high as it has been since the great depression.  

[Cdub100 3,381]

6 minutes ago, bandrus1 said:

There is a ton left on the table if they wanted to.

 

You want to see the stock market go through the roof? Forgive outstanding student debt. The thing would explode

Imma call bullsh1t on that. I'm getting tired of idiots who lived it up at college wasting thousands on worthless degrees ask for forgiveness. That's not how any of this works. Those companies getting "bailed out" are not getting forgiveness they are getting loans they will have to pay back.

You take out a loan you pay it back. 

[Hardcore troubadour 12,648]

14 minutes ago, bandrus1 said:

There is a ton left on the table if they wanted to.

 

You want to see the stock market go through the roof? Forgive outstanding student debt. The thing would explode

How does that reduce the cost of college going forward, which is the real problem. It would make it worse. 

[Cdub100 3,381]

1 minute ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

How does that reduce the cost of college going forward, which is the real problem. It would make it worse. 

Exactly what about everyone who did it smartly or worked hard getting grants or lived below their means and paid it off or the people graduating 3 years from now?

It's a childish dream that Liberal Politicians dangle in front of idiot voters.

[Leeson 54]

6 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

Imma call bullsh1t on that. I'm getting tired of idiots who lived it up at college wasting thousands on worthless degrees ask for forgiveness. That's not how any of this works. Those companies getting "bailed out" are not getting forgiveness they are getting loans they will have to pay back.

You take out a loan you pay it back. 

Are you sure about this?

I thought PPP loans didn't have to be paid back if you maintained head count?

[bandrus1 413]

7 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

Imma call bullsh1t on that. I'm getting tired of idiots who lived it up at college wasting thousands on worthless degrees ask for forgiveness. That's not how any of this works. Those companies getting "bailed out" are not getting forgiveness they are getting loans they will have to pay back.

You take out a loan you pay it back. 

I didn't say anything about it. I said ways that you could continue to prop up the market

[Cdub100 3,381]

4 minutes ago, Leeson said:

Are you sure about this?

I thought PPP loans didn't have to be paid back if you maintained head count?

It depends on the loan but the PPP loans I think you're referring to is to be used to pay salaries. Either the government gives the money to the companies to pay people or the people go on unemployment. 

[Leeson 54]

14 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

It depends on the loan but the PPP loans I think you're referring to is to be used to pay salaries. Either the government gives the money to the companies to pay people or the people go on unemployment. 

The money goes to companies that are keeping people on the payroll. However, some of those businesses don't have a consumer market or end product that is in high demand right now. (we don't know when demand will return). If that businesses ends up closing, that money won't be paid back and that employee will still go on unemployment. 

I know it's an unpopular opinion, but universal healthcare would help out. Most people want to stay employed because they can't afford losing their healthcare. But for some, it's just delaying the inevitable. We have unemployment for situations like this. Putting someone on unemployment helps them get back into the workforce. But, it does hurt the stock market. Which may explain why they chose PPP and stimulus instead. 

[Cdub100 3,381]

15 minutes ago, Leeson said:

The money goes to companies that are keeping people on the payroll. However, some of those businesses don't have a consumer market or end product that is in high demand right now. (we don't know when demand will return). If that businesses ends up closing, that money won't be paid back and that employee will still go on unemployment. 

I know it's an unpopular opinion, but universal healthcare would help out. Most people want to stay employed because they can't afford losing their healthcare. But for some, it's just delaying the inevitable. We have unemployment for situations like this. Putting someone on unemployment helps them get back into the workforce. But, it does hurt the stock market. Which may explain why they chose PPP and stimulus instead. 

Right... As I said with the PPP loan those employees are still getting paid by the company through the PPP. Without the PPP the company would furlough those workers and put them on unemployment even sooner. You understand that right?

Obama care fixed the health care issue. Remember wehn Trump said it was broken and wanted to fix it but the democrat senators with the help of some RINOs voted to keep Obama care? Do you remember that? It seems like a lot of people forgot that. So no, you have Obama care. I'm told it's perfect.