Is it time to get out of the market?

[peenie 1,690]

I bought some Zoom (ZM) and it's gone up a little already. 

[mmmmm...beer 691]

Just now, peenie said:

I bought some Zoom (ZM) and it's gone up a little already. 

Welcome back babygurl!  🥰

[Strike 3,980]

14 minutes ago, peenie said:

I bought some Zoom (ZM) and it's gone up a little already. 

I hope you didn't spend too much on that.

[Cdub100 3,384]

41 minutes ago, peenie said:

I bought some Zoom (ZM) and it's gone up a little already. 

[Cdub100 3,384]

S&P up 3% this week. 

I have more money to deploy, but I'm going to hold. 

[bandrus1 413]

Gold has been ripping too.... Would like to purchase 2 oz physical but idk if will see $1500 for a long while

[mmmmm...beer 691]

HAL, USO, UCO suuuper low.  Can't think oils gonna be down forever.

[NorthernVike 2,080]

6 hours ago, mmmmm...beer said:

HAL, USO, UCO suuuper low.  Can't think oils gonna be down forever.

That's what I thought six years ago.  It didn't turn out well. 

[Alias Detective 1,179]

1 minute ago, NorthernVike said:

That's what I thought six years ago.  It didn't turn out well. 

Bout it.  I live smack dab in the middle of the Marcellus Shale play and my royalty checks are a pittance of what they were.

[NorthernVike 2,080]

1 hour ago, Alias Detective said:

Bout it.  I live smack dab in the middle of the Marcellus Shale play and my royalty checks are a pittance of what they were.

At least you have some.  My family has mineral rights in the Bakken in North Dakota.  Several years ago my mother got a check for around 7 grand for exploratory wells on the property.  They found what they were looking for but to date haven't drilled a single active well. 

[edjr 5,567]

 

14 hours ago, Cdub100 said:

NOSE DIVE!

[Alias Detective 1,179]

3 minutes ago, NorthernVike said:

At least you have some.  My family has mineral rights in the Bakken in North Dakota.  Several years ago my mother got a check for around 7 grand for exploratory wells on the property.  They found what they were looking for but to date haven't drilled a single active well. 

It’s like gold under ground.  If/when the price rises they will begging drilling again.

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

47 minutes ago, edjr said:

 

NOSE DIVE!

It is only down 2.4%.  No big deal.  I expect more correction once companies start reporting Q2 results.  I hope it is more of the 1-2% types of movements instead of wilder amounts.  I am not ready to start adding to positions at this point as we see how this unfolds.  

[Cdub100 3,384]

18 minutes ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

It is only down 2.4%.  No big deal.  I expect more correction once companies start reporting Q2 results.  I hope it is more of the 1-2% types of movements instead of wilder amounts.  I am not ready to start adding to positions at this point as we see how this unfolds.  

I'm hoping for the same.

[Cdub100 3,384]

I'm really getting the sense people want the market to drop. There is a lot of cash and unless the government allows the market to have a significant drop this voliltility will continue for a long time.

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

3 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

I'm really getting the sense people want the market to drop. There is a lot of cash and unless the government allows the market to have a significant drop this voliltility will continue for a long time.

I tend to agree, although I don't know whether we are still looking at a drop.  I tend to think that we are.  I don't want a drop given that I have cash on the sideline ready to invest, but it is not as much as I already have in the market.

My guess is that we will still have volatility until there is a vaccine or at least some understanding of when business can get back to some sort of normal.  I have no idea when the hell that is though. 

[kutulu 1,551]

Interesting technical article...

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/B06FAD84-75BA-11EA-8BD5-378253C2B750

Last I looked it was 335.99

[Cdub100 3,384]

The chart is starting to round down. Is it time for the big dip?

[Cdub100 3,384]

I haven't watched the whole video but thought some of you might like it.

 

 

[peenie 1,690]

On ‎4‎/‎14‎/‎2020 at 7:11 PM, Cdub100 said:

I'm watching it. If it starts to go down, I'll sell. I'm pretty sure I've got until April 30.

[mmmmm...beer 691]

Looks like it could be a pretty good day tomorrow... after hours up pretty big 

[Cdub100 3,384]

1 minute ago, mmmmm...beer said:

Looks like it could be a pretty good day tomorrow... after hours up pretty big 

Just looked. 

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

7 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

Just looked. 

That means it will suck! Let’s see what Europe does. Market being up after big job loss reports makes no sense, but who knows.

[mmmmm...beer 691]

1 hour ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

That means it will suck! Let’s see what Europe does. Market being up after big job loss reports makes no sense, but who knows.

Some sh!t about corona cure...

[Cdub100 3,384]

1 hour ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

That means it will suck! Let’s see what Europe does. Market being up after big job loss reports makes no sense, but who knows.

It makes sense when looking at the whole picture. The fed is making the money machine go brrrrrr.

 

[Cdub100 3,384]

42 minutes ago, mmmmm...beer said:

Some sh!t about corona cure...

Nah just a plan about moving forward.

There is no cure maybe a vaccine next year but we have a few drugs that work very well. When combined the death rate drops to that of the flu

[nobody 2,044]

If Gilead turns out to be effective at keeping people off ventilators, we're back open the next day.  That's why the market is going bananas.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

Thank you, ROKU  (and another thank you to AMD which has done me well on several short and long term trades)

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

On 4/15/2020 at 10:07 AM, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

It is only down 2.4%.  No big deal.  I expect more correction once companies start reporting Q2 results.  I hope it is more of the 1-2% types of movements instead of wilder amounts.  I am not ready to start adding to positions at this point as we see how this unfolds.  

I guess it depends what kind of trader/investor you are. There have already been a ton of fairly easy to predict short term investments since the bigger drops we had in march. Heck, in many cases you could have just blindly threw a dart at any solid company on your watch list and made 20% or more over 3 or 4 trading days. This volatility has been a dream for short term traders as well as long term investors looking to add to their positions. 

If you think the worst is yet to come, then I guess you keep your cash on the sidelines until then... but I also think that even if there is bigger hurt in the markets short term future, a year from now the stocks you're considering will be trading significantly higher than they were after those big march dips.

I mentioned ROKU above and it's just one example of many but i'll use it since I actually did trade it. I have shares of ROKU from before the drop. I'm still holding those. I bought a lot more shares when it dropped below $70. Today it rose above $125 and I sold a good sized chunk of my recent purchase. I'll get killed on the short term capital gains tax but I don't care. I've been doing more short term trading this past month than I ever have. Partly due to the opportunity and partly due to working from home and more time to monitor the markets. However, I did hold some shares. The way I see it, ROKU isn't going back below its recent 52 week lows but even if it drops and tests that level again, I'll be happy with the shares I already bought knowing that in the long term I got them at a discount.

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

6 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

I guess it depends what kind of trader/investor you are. There have already been a ton of fairly easy to predict short term investments since the bigger drops we had in march. Heck, in many cases you could have just blindly threw a dart at any solid company on your watch list and made 20% or more over 3 or 4 trading days. This volatility has been a dream for short term traders as well as long term investors looking to add to their positions. 

If you think the worst is yet to come, then I guess you keep your cash on the sidelines until then... but I also think that even if there is bigger hurt in the markets short term future, a year from now the stocks you're considering will be trading significantly higher than they were after those big march dips.

I mentioned ROKU above and it's just one example of many but i'll use it since I actually did trade it. I have shares of ROKU from before the drop. I'm still holding those. I bought a lot more shares when it dropped below $70. Today it rose above $125 and I sold a good sized chunk of my recent purchase. I'll get killed on the short term capital gains tax but I don't care. I've been doing more short term trading this past month than I ever have. Partly due to the opportunity and partly due to working from home and more time to monitor the markets. However, I did hold some shares. The way I see it, ROKU isn't going back below its recent 52 week lows but even if it drops and tests that level again, I'll be happy with the shares I already bought knowing that in the long term I got them at a discount.

If there are lots of day traders getting their timing right and making bank on their trades, then good for them.  My guess is that you have a close number of people losing too.  

In your case, you are not day trading, you are just buying and selling when you feel comfortable with your gains or losses.  I did the same with ROKU.  Bought at $30, sold at $65.  If I had held onto it, I would be really happy, but I still doubled my money in a 3 month period.  That is the challenge with individual stocks.  

I don't have my money on the sidelines.  I have some extra cash on the sidelines, but I still have 85% or so still in the market.  I just don't dump stuff, hold cash, buy something and try to time things. I am long-term investor, not a trader.  I make more money by working at my job than I do by playing the market, so that is where I focus my time.  

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

46 minutes ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

If there are lots of day traders getting their timing right and making bank on their trades, then good for them.  My guess is that you have a close number of people losing too.  

In your case, you are not day trading, you are just buying and selling when you feel comfortable with your gains or losses.  I did the same with ROKU.  Bought at $30, sold at $65.  If I had held onto it, I would be really happy, but I still doubled my money in a 3 month period.  That is the challenge with individual stocks.  

I don't have my money on the sidelines.  I have some extra cash on the sidelines, but I still have 85% or so still in the market.  I just don't dump stuff, hold cash, buy something and try to time things. I am long-term investor, not a trader.  I make more money by working at my job than I do by playing the market, so that is where I focus my time.  

Yes. agreed. I wasn't claiming to be day trading. Simply taking advantage of the opportunity and doing more short term trades than usual. I have plenty of long term holdings.

Trading stock is not my full time job or main source of income either but it is a hobby I enjoy. So far I have been lucky in that I have not taken a loss on any trades since the drop but I'm also not attempting to time anything. When I feel something is over sold or down on general Covid news rather than it's own prospects as a company AND it happens to align with my watch list from prior to the pandemic, I snatch it up. I sell after a day, 3 days, 2 weeks, whenever it has achieved a gain I am satisfied with.

In some cases I could have held longer and made a lot more money than I did (bought AMD at 41 sold at 46, bought again at 42 and sold at 48, it's now up to nearly 57  ) but like your ROKU trade, I can't complain with my profits so I don't worry about it.

I would agree, true day traders are likely losing money too. 

[mmmmm...beer 691]

Daaammnnn. AMC up bigly.. +35% this morning

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

3 hours ago, mmmmm...beer said:

Daaammnnn. AMC up bigly.. +35% this morning

 

"AMC Entertainment Holdings  (AMC) - Get Report shares surged Friday after the movie theater company said it had enough liquidity to withstand suspension of operations due to the coronavirus pandemic until a partial reopening ahead of Thanksgiving.

In addition, the  Leawood, Kan., company said it had commenced a private offering of $500 million of first-lien notes due 2025."

 

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

Im also going to throw CCL out there. I have traded it twice so far but I also view it as a really great "short long term investment" (1-2 years). Personally I grabbed shares when they announced a new stock offering priced at $8/share and rode it up on the news that the Saudis took an 8% stake as well as comments from Carnival that they were positioned to withstand no revenue for quite a while. Within a few days it was trading up 60%. 

Like AMC, they also took on debt to do so but not to the point that it wold be a concern once the vacation industry gets back to normal.

Long term I look at it like this : Will the cruise industry disappear because of this? I doubt it. Once this is over will people get on cruises again? Some data already suggests that 75% of people are eager to get back on a cruise and I bet as we distance ourselves from the pandemic, that % will only rise. CCL was trading in the 40's right before Covid and as high as the 50's this year. A unique opportunity to quadruple your investment. The only way I see investors losing money after 1 or 2 years is if CCL goes bankrupt. That would be the gamble. I don't see it happening. 

[nobody 2,044]

19 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

The only way I see investors losing money after 1 or 2 years is if CCL goes bankrupt. That would be the gamble. I don't see it happening. 

Well, you could also have a massive default rate on mortgages and commercial loans due to the covid shutdown causing a liquidity crisis, but I think the Fed is trying to take that off the table.

You also need to worry about lawsuits and what would happen if we saw a second or third wave of infections.  And good lord, if there's another rash of cruise ships getting quarantined because of an outbreak, grab your socks, you'll be in for a ride.

[Cdub100 3,384]

 

 

 

1

1 hour ago, WhiteWonder said:

Im also going to throw CCL out there.

I bought CCL @ $8.20 and sold at $13ish. I wanted to hold but I thought we are due for another market dip to retest the lows. So far it hasn't happen. I want to jump back in CCL and RCL, but I'm still concerned about the dividend getting cut. 

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

On 4/17/2020 at 3:37 PM, Cdub100 said:

I bought CCL @ $8.20 and sold at $13ish. I wanted to hold but I thought we are due for another market dip to retest the lows. So far it hasn't happen. I want to jump back in CCL and RCL, but I'm still concerned about the dividend getting cut. 

yes I did the same with a buy around 8 and a sell above 12. Then I bought in at $11.40 this past monday and sold on Friday for a 10% gain. I could have sold Tuesday for a better gain but I got busy and missed market close. 

CCL will continue to be a stock I will look to ride the ups and downs on until I eventually decide to buy a larger chunk and hold long term.

[bandrus1 413]

I think we are in huge trouble as a country if oil keeps going this way

[mmmmm...beer 691]

Batton down the hatches boys.... could be a rough ride this week.  Like 75% of the S&P500 report earnings next week.

[bandrus1 413]

1 minute ago, mmmmm...beer said:

Batton down the hatches boys.... could be a rough ride this week.  Like 75% of the S&P500 report earnings this week.

You dont think poor earnings are already built into prices? I would be running to shelter in the big names

 

Microsoft, wal-mart- Amazon- Apple yadda yadda