Is it time to get out of the market?

[Leeson 54]

2 hours ago, Cdub100 said:

Right... As I said with the PPP loan those employees are still getting paid by the company through the PPP. Without the PPP the company would furlough those workers and put them on unemployment even sooner. You understand that right?

Obama care fixed the health care issue. Remember wehn Trump said it was broken and wanted to fix it but the democrat senators with the help of some RINOs voted to keep Obama care? Do you remember that? It seems like a lot of people forgot that. So no, you have Obama care. I'm told it's perfect.

If Obamacare is perfect, then we should have no problem with laying off every employee who works for a business that has no customer base at this time. If they went on unemployment, they would lose their health insurance and wouldn't be able to afford any. (Including Obamacare) Please don't blame me for the focked up politics around universal health care. Both sides own the problem. 

You do understand that we are paying companies (and ultimately employees) tax money through PPP? A large percentage of those same employees may end up on unemployment. There are three differences. On PPP, the employee gets to keep their insurance, they get paid their full salary (maybe), but they are not required to seek other employment. 

How many companies know that they are not going to make it another 90 days? But, they took government money to pay employees. The end result will be the same. The only difference is we increased the national debt in the short term and those employees will get another 6-12 months to collect while looking for a new job.

Will those employees that receive PPP have a higher tax burden in the coming years to pay things back? (You know, like the businesses are doing) Or is this just another entitlement program that middle class tax payers will be asked to cover? 

[Cdub100 3,381]

1 minute ago, Leeson said:

If Obamacare is perfect, then we should have no problem with laying off every employee who works for a business that has no customer base at this time. If they went on unemployment, they would lose their health insurance and wouldn't be able to afford any. (Including Obamacare) Please don't blame me for the focked up politics around universal health care. Both sides own the problem. 

You do understand that we are paying companies (and ultimately employees) tax money through PPP? A large percentage of those same employees may end up on unemployment. There are three differences. On PPP, the employee gets to keep their insurance, they get paid their full salary (maybe), but they are not required to seek other employment. 

How many companies know that they are not going to make it another 90 days? But, they took government money to pay employees. The end result will be the same. The only difference is we increased the national debt in the short term and those employees will get another 6-12 months to collect while looking for a new job.

Will those employees that receive PPP have a higher tax burden in the coming years to pay things back? (You know, like the businesses are doing) Or is this just another entitlement program that middle class tax payers will be asked to cover? 

Hey man I'm just the messenger. One of the reasons I voted for Trump was to fix our broken health care. But the Democrats said it was totally fine and voted against the repeal. Not sure what you want from me? This is what the left voted for 3 times. They cheered when Brain dead McCain voted against the repeal. They made their beds now they can sleep in it.

Yeah, I understand "we are paying companies". I'm also smart enough to know current unemployment wouldn't be enough to pay everyone who filed so it would need additional funding from the Fed. The idea of PPP was to bridge the gap until businesses reopen. Some of us are pushing to reopen our state but Democrats want to stay home and drink cat p1ss for all I know

[tubby_mcgee 686]

On 5/7/2020 at 6:55 PM, nobody said:

Because it's Trump.  He'll do anything and everything to make sure the market stays propped up.

I'm up 20k in oil stocks in past two weeks.  lol@ "propped up"

 

[Cdub100 3,381]

19 minutes ago, tubby_mcgee said:

I'm up 20k in oil stocks in past two weeks.  lol@ "propped up"

 

Man I wanted to get into oil but I put my risky money into cruise and airline stocks.

What did you buy? XOM is on my watch list.

[nobody 2,040]

36 minutes ago, tubby_mcgee said:

I'm up 20k in oil stocks in past two weeks.  lol@ "propped up"

 

How does being up 20k in oil equal the market not being propped up?

Congrats by the way.

[Leeson 54]

2 hours ago, Cdub100 said:

Hey man I'm just the messenger. One of the reasons I voted for Trump was to fix our broken health care. But the Democrats said it was totally fine and voted against the repeal. Not sure what you want from me? This is what the left voted for 3 times. They cheered when Brain dead McCain voted against the repeal. They made their beds now they can sleep in it.

Yeah, I understand "we are paying companies". I'm also smart enough to know current unemployment wouldn't be enough to pay everyone who filed so it would need additional funding from the Fed. The idea of PPP was to bridge the gap until businesses reopen. Some of us are pushing to reopen our state but Democrats want to stay home and drink cat p1ss for all I know

We have the same point. Health care is broken. Both sides can't seem to work together to fix it. At last check, McCain is (was) a Republican. If it came down to one vote, then it wasn't a slam dunk to begin with.

There shouldn't have been PPP. The fed should have funded unemployment and covered COBRA (or some other option). At least then the unemployment system would be ahead of things by helping people find new jobs or retraining. There is nothing that says someone on unemployment couldn't go back to their previous job if business returned to normal. It feels like they went the way of PPP in order to keep unemployment numbers down, prop up businesses (with no guarantee of a return on investment) in order to make the stock market look good in the short term.

[Cdub100 3,381]

Just now, Leeson said:

We have the same point. Health care is broken. Both sides can't seem to work together to fix it. At last check, McCain is (was) a Republican. If it came down to one vote, then it wasn't a slam dunk to begin with.

There shouldn't have been PPP. The fed should have funded unemployment and covered COBRA (or some other option). At least then the unemployment system would be ahead of things by helping people find new jobs or retraining. There is nothing that says someone on unemployment couldn't go back to their previous job if business returned to normal. It feels like they went the way of PPP in order to keep unemployment numbers down, prop up businesses (with no guarantee of a return on investment) in order to make the stock market look good in the short term.

I actually agree with you on PPP and I don't think they should have sent out a stimulus either. People kept crying about millions unemployed and all I could think was that is what unemployment is for.

McCain had the chance to allow the Republicans the chance to fix health care, but he hated Trump and voted against his party. 

[tubby_mcgee 686]

3 hours ago, nobody said:

How does being up 20k in oil equal the market not being propped up?

Congrats by the way.

 

I was being honest....but it wasn't my point to brag, etc or get a congrats.   My point was... sort of "so what if its propped up" ....and really.....how do you know if its propped up? When isn't it propped up?  When is it propped up?  Did you read what someone said?  If so, there is probably someone somewhere else saying the opposite. 

I mean, I don't what I'm trying to say.  I guess, all of my life, in investing, overall I"m "ahead". I started investing in 2009.  So, since then, I mean...yeah....manipulation here, there, everywhere...but in the end.... net gain is what you want...and what happens below the surface, when it comes to money, doesn't matter.  

Propped up means to me, its gonna fail when the supports are pulled out...but...I don't know if it will.  I could sit back and say 'Hey...that's propped up!" while I watch the market go up and lose out. 

Labrador Retriever owners, years back, when greyhounds and whippets would enter dock diving and win, would say "That's not right. Those aren't even water dogs"

In the end, they still won. 

Maybe that's not what you are getting it, I'm not trying to pick an argument,  I'm just saying regardless of the cause, the effect can still be good. Or something like that.

 

 

[nobody 2,040]

I've been trading and following the market for 20 years.  When 30% of the economy is shut down and the GDP is contracting, and we have demand shock, the market should be down 25% from all time highs at least.  Shìt SARS knocked us down 25% by itself and that was basically nothing.  

Don't get me wrong.  I agree with your sentiment.  Who cares why it goes up (to an extent).  I was just answering someone's question about what would happen to the markets if we removed Trump from the equation.  It would tank because no one else would pump 4 trillion into the market in 1 month to make sure it stayed up.

[Leeson 54]

It matters because investors have limited vehicles to invest in. CD or savings accounts are not an option for growth.

This forces everyone to put their money in the market in order to make reasonable growth for retirement. What happens when a propped market fails? It drops and people pull their money out in a panic. The stock market has crashed. History proves that. 

Some say put it in bonds. But now the fed is going to inject help there too. What happens when the person(s) who think this is a good idea are no longer in control. That could be November or in 4 years. Its not guaranteed to last for ever.

I may not know a lot about the market. But I know debt. Eventually it runs out and someone has to pay. 

[nobody 2,040]

22 minutes ago, Leeson said:

It matters because investors have limited vehicles to invest in. CD or savings accounts are not an option for growth.

This forces everyone to put their money in the market in order to make reasonable growth for retirement. What happens when a propped market fails? It drops and people pull their money out in a panic. The stock market has crashed. History proves that. 

Some say put it in bonds. But now the fed is going to inject help there too. What happens when the person(s) who think this is a good idea are no longer in control. That could be November or in 4 years. Its not guaranteed to last for ever.

I may not know a lot about the market. But I know debt. Eventually it runs out and someone has to pay. 

In regards to debt, you're right, but they're offering 30 year bonds at such low rates, it's basically free money.

[tubby_mcgee 686]

7 hours ago, Cdub100 said:

Man I wanted to get into oil but I put my risky money into cruise and airline stocks.

What did you buy? XOM is on my watch list.

 

Total: $99,123.90 $79,906.99   +$19,216.91 CHEVRON CORP CVX Buy 285.00000 $95.47 $27,208.95 $20,052.38 Detail +$7,156.57 CONOCOPHILLIPS COP Hold 630.00000 $43.08 $27,140.40 $19,756.24 Detail +$7,384.16 EXXON MOBIL CORP XOM Hold 540.00000 $46.18 $24,937.20 $20,128.33 Detail +$4,808.87 ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC SPONSORED ADR REPSTG A SHS RDS A Hold 585.00000 $33.91 $19,837.35 $19,970.04 Detail -$132.69
RDS....I'm even.  Even though its shown as a "hold".... and CVX a "buy", personally, I'd be more inclined to buy RDS...as in my brain...it has to eventually follow the other big guys.  RDS is #2 in the world in market cap.  Exxon is #1.  I don't feel like it isn't as good as the other 3,  but just that its lagging behind the other 3.   If I bought more today, I'd buy RDS.   Those prices and "buy/holds" are as of 5/10/2020.

[bandrus1 413]

I blew it on AMC I wish I just went for it

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

I am at the point where I have some play money staying with some indexes and stocks that I will keep longer term and another group that I will play the short term bumps with. I still see another dip coming later this year, so most of my free cash will stay that way.

[lickin_starfish 1,481]

I just bought myself into Applebees. People are going to want to get out and eat good in the neighborhood when this lockdown ends.

[Cdub100 3,381]

On 5/10/2020 at 2:27 AM, tubby_mcgee said:

 

Total: $99,123.90 $79,906.99   +$19,216.91 CHEVRON CORP CVX Buy 285.00000 $95.47 $27,208.95 $20,052.38 Detail +$7,156.57 CONOCOPHILLIPS COP Hold 630.00000 $43.08 $27,140.40 $19,756.24 Detail +$7,384.16 EXXON MOBIL CORP XOM Hold 540.00000 $46.18 $24,937.20 $20,128.33 Detail +$4,808.87 ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC SPONSORED ADR REPSTG A SHS RDS A Hold 585.00000 $33.91 $19,837.35 $19,970.04 Detail -$132.69
RDS....I'm even.  Even though its shown as a "hold".... and CVX a "buy", personally, I'd be more inclined to buy RDS...as in my brain...it has to eventually follow the other big guys.  RDS is #2 in the world in market cap.  Exxon is #1.  I don't feel like it isn't as good as the other 3,  but just that its lagging behind the other 3.   If I bought more today, I'd buy RDS.   Those prices and "buy/holds" are as of 5/10/2020.

Very nice. 

[Leeson 54]

On 5/9/2020 at 10:46 AM, Leeson said:

Can't argue the facts. But, I do wonder why.

A good example is CAT. What changed in the last month to make it go from $126 to $106, and then back to $112 yesterday? 

Next week it could be $126 or $90. Without reason. Doesn't really instill much confidence when investing.

CAT down below $109. It's just seesawing at this point. 

[Mookz 1,287]

5 minutes ago, Leeson said:

CAT down below $109. It's just seesawing at this point. 

It'll land on its feet.  

[Leeson 54]

4 minutes ago, Mookz said:

It'll land on its feet.  

I agree. I'm in it for the long haul. It's just funny to watch stocks like this bounce up and down so much without rhyme or reason over the course of a few days. 

[Leeson 54]

On another note, I bought into JACK in mid April at $52 (wasn't even close to bottom of $18.59 a month earlier) and it's up 28%. Quarterly report is Weds. Debating on taking some profits tomorrow. 

[Hardcore troubadour 12,648]

Ouch. Late dive. Why? 

[Leeson 54]

7 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Ouch. Late dive. Why? 

LA County stay at home order extended until end of July?

Threat of tariffs against China?

Market is overpriced compared to the reality of people not wanting to do anything until they know it's safe to resume their normal life?

I'm sure there are a dozen more reasons. Pick one.

[Hardcore troubadour 12,648]

Just now, Leeson said:

LA County stay at home order extended until end of July?

Threat of tariffs against China?

Market is overpriced compared to the reality of people not wanting to do anything until they know it's safe to resume their normal life?

I'm sure there are a dozen more reasons. Pick one.

I’ll pick nobody has a clue. 

[Leeson 54]

3 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

I’ll pick nobody has a clue. 

You think it should be going up? If so, why?

[Cdub100 3,381]

Yup rough second half of the day

 

[Hardcore troubadour 12,648]

2 minutes ago, Leeson said:

You think it should be going up? If so, why?

I don’t think it should be. But I don’t have a clue.  I thought I did once upon a time. The years have shown me I do not. And I’m less confident that many do unless they are insiders.  Same as it ever was I guess.  

[Leeson 54]

4 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

I don’t think it should be. But I don’t have a clue.  I thought I did once upon a time. The years have shown me I do not. And I’m less confident that many do unless they are insiders.  Same as it ever was I guess.  

People just aren't spending money like they used to. I don't know, but my family may be the exception to the rule, but we haven't done anything months. My daughter who was/is getting paid through a grant for work study makes $1300 a month. She is the typical consumer. Living at home, she doesn't have many bills (gas, car insurance, phone bill). So, she has lots of disposable income. She's had under $5k in her savings account for almost 2 years. She spent all of her paycheck every month on Starbucks, dinners out, multiple trips to Target each week. That has stopped, and she now has over $8k in her savings. 

Things will go back to normal, she's made mention of buying bigger items (new car) once things get back to normal. I think there are a lot of people that are doing exactly what she is. They are in wait and see mode. 

(tomorrow, the market will probably shoot up 500 points)

[Hardcore troubadour 12,648]

1 minute ago, Leeson said:

People just aren't spending money like they used to. I don't know, but my family may be the exception to the rule, but we haven't done anything months. My daughter who was/is getting paid through a grant for work study makes $1300 a month. She is the typical consumer. Living at home, she doesn't have many bills (gas, car insurance, phone bill). So, she has lots of disposable income. She's had under $5k in her savings account for almost 2 years. She spent all of her paycheck every month on Starbucks, dinners out, multiple trips to Target each week. That has stopped, and she now has over $8k in her savings. 

Things will go back to normal, she's made mention of buying bigger items (new car) once things get back to normal. I think there are a lot of people that are doing exactly what she is. They are in wait and see mode. 

(tomorrow, the market will probably shoot up 500 points)

That’s what I mean. What you laid out says the market shouldn’t be going up. Maybe not crash, but it should be in a holding pattern at least. If it shoots up big tomorrow that tells me it’s just speculation. But again, I don’t know much. 

[peenie 1,690]

8 minutes ago, Leeson said:

People just aren't spending money like they used to. I don't know, but my family may be the exception to the rule, but we haven't done anything months. My daughter who was/is getting paid through a grant for work study makes $1300 a month. She is the typical consumer. Living at home, she doesn't have many bills (gas, car insurance, phone bill). So, she has lots of disposable income. She's had under $5k in her savings account for almost 2 years. She spent all of her paycheck every month on Starbucks, dinners out, multiple trips to Target each week. That has stopped, and she now has over $8k in her savings. 

Things will go back to normal, she's made mention of buying bigger items (new car) once things get back to normal. I think there are a lot of people that are doing exactly what she is. They are in wait and see mode. 

(tomorrow, the market will probably shoot up 500 points)

My daughter spends all of her money on clothes, shoes, eating out everywhere (when restaurants were open). My daughter also wants to buy a new car when the new ones come out.

[Strike 3,975]

38 minutes ago, peenie said:

My daughter spends all of her money on clothes, shoes, eating out everywhere (when restaurants were open). My daughter also wants to buy a new car when the new ones come out.

One of the dumbest things young people do (myself included) is to not properly understand the power of compounding in investing.  And I have no excuse.  The company I worked for in my 20's had a subsidiary that was a mutual fund company and they came in every year and did seminars trying to pound in to our heads the benefits of proper investing and compounding.  If a college graduate makes decent money, comes up with a sound investment strategy, and invests an appropriate amount of money by the time they're 45 they're looking at their endgame while most of their contemporaries are just getting in to the game.

[lod001 1,237]

Yes. This is your 2nd chance to get out before another meltdown. 2700 is guaranteed. 2500 possible and I am actually hoping for a new low. The last 2 meltdowns were not sufficient. 2018-2019 and last month. Gotta make people hate the stock market. My guess is big $ has been selling this rally to mom & pop, joe retail and robinhood 'investors'. We are not at the point of no return yet. We can hit one more high at 3000 but we are going down. Whether this is the sell of the next wave down, joe retail has been programmed to buy the dips. Could be time to punish him again.

[tubby_mcgee 686]

I'm going with...

Look at the market back to the beginning of time.  Use that as your guide. 

[kutulu 1,545]

The S&P 500 currently trades at 22.5 times projected earnings

[NorthernVike 2,080]

Stay the course.   Dems want a 3 trillion dollar package.   Even  if it ends up 2 trillion package  the market goes  up.   As dumb  as that seems,  it'll happen.   

[Cdub100 3,381]

12 hours ago, lod001 said:

Yes. This is your 2nd chance to get out before another meltdown. 2700 is guaranteed. 2500 possible and I am actually hoping for a new low. The last 2 meltdowns were not sufficient. 2018-2019 and last month. Gotta make people hate the stock market. My guess is big $ has been selling this rally to mom & pop, joe retail and robinhood 'investors'. We are not at the point of no return yet. We can hit one more high at 3000 but we are going down. Whether this is the sell of the next wave down, joe retail has been programmed to buy the dips. Could be time to punish him again.

I aint leaving!

[lickin_starfish 1,481]

Every stock I buy immediately goes down the next day, and keeps dropping. HAHa!

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

1 minute ago, lickin_starfish said:

Every stock I buy immediately goes down the next day, and keeps dropping. HAHa!

Can you let me know the next time you buy and what so that I can buy it a couple of days later? 

[NorthernVike 2,080]

I just completed a fiduciary review of my offices retirement plan with our financial advisor.  He believes we will see another drop also and a "W" shape recovery.  He was all for another round of stimulus.  I told him of course you are, it makes your job easier. 

[Leeson 54]

"WWWwwwwwWWWWwwwwWWW

[lod001 1,237]

3 hours ago, Cdub100 said:

I aint leaving!

Ouch.

Everyone buy the dips!!!!!!