[** Official President Joe Biden Thread **]

[dogcows 1,030]

2 minutes ago, Ultra Max Power said:

Where are you getting this number from?  

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1351276/wage-growth-vs-inflation-us/

Inflation is down into the 4% range, while wage growth has held steady in the 6% range.

[seafoam1 2,867]

Statista. 

[Ultra Max Power 214]

8 minutes ago, dogcows said:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1351276/wage-growth-vs-inflation-us/

Inflation is down into the 4% range, while wage growth has held steady in the 6% range.

So this is just a snapshot in time statistic.  Over the past couple of years wage growth has not outpaced inflation.  

 

[RLLD 4,180]

2 minutes ago, Ultra Max Power said:

So this is just a snapshot in time statistic.  Over the past couple of years wage growth has not outpaced inflation.  

 

Correct.  People have no additional spending power, the taxation through inflation manuever has assured that. 

[Hardcore troubadour 15,137]

This is great news. Paying back student loans shouldn’t be difficult then. 

[Ultra Max Power 214]

18 minutes ago, RLLD said:

Correct.  People have no additional spending power, the taxation through inflation manuever has assured that. 

I also have a major problem with how CPI is calculated.  It doesn't take into account shrinkflation and even allows the index to replace goods with "like items" and they take some liberty on what a "like item" is.  If you tell anyone who shops for groceries that prices are up only 8-10% and they will laugh in your face.  

[Ultra Max Power 214]

I just got my Auto insurance bill and my rates went up substantially without any claims for several years now.  Annual average is 8.4% for 2023.  

[seafoam1 2,867]

1 minute ago, Ultra Max Power said:

I just got my Auto insurance bill and my rates went up substantially without any claims for several years now.  Annual average is 8.4% for 2023.  

Don't forget utilities.

[DonS 3,292]

5 minutes ago, Ultra Max Power said:

  If you tell anyone who shops for groceries that prices are up only 8-10% and they will laugh in your face.  

I call bullsh1t!  Bud Light is proof that groceries are actually cheaper now. 

[Ultra Max Power 214]

1 minute ago, seafoam1 said:

Don't forget utilities.

Yeah, those are up too.  Glad I live on a well.  We've actually agreed to set our A/C at a higher temp this year just to cut a couple bucks off the bill.  

I will say that was an easier adjustment than I thought it would be.  Even when things even out in the future, we may continue to leave it a bit warmer in the summer now.  

[RLLD 4,180]

10 minutes ago, Ultra Max Power said:

I also have a major problem with how CPI is calculated.  It doesn't take into account shrinkflation and even allows the index to replace goods with "like items" and they take some liberty on what a "like item" is.  If you tell anyone who shops for groceries that prices are up only 8-10% and they will laugh in your face.  

Well yes....the two most important measures (energy and food) were pointedly removed unter the pretense of "too volatile" and this assured that they can espouse lies about inflation while people suffer....its gaslighting by the government.

[dogcows 1,030]

39 minutes ago, Ultra Max Power said:

So this is just a snapshot in time statistic.  Over the past couple of years wage growth has not outpaced inflation.  

 

You can see the chart at the linked site for a longer view. Inflation seems to have peaked and fallen rapidly while wage growth lagged behind at first but has been more steady.

[Ultra Max Power 214]

28 minutes ago, dogcows said:

You can see the chart at the linked site for a longer view. Inflation seems to have peaked and fallen rapidly while wage growth lagged behind at first but has been more steady.

Sure, but that link even lays out the reality of the situation.  Real wages are down, the purchasing power of the dollar is down, even if we put a nice bow on the numbers. 

 

Inflation in 2022

The high rates of inflation in 2022 meant that the real terms value of American wages took a hit. Many Americans report feelings of concern over the economy and a worsening of their financial situation. The inflation situation in the United States is one that was experienced globally in 2022, mainly due to COVID-19 related supply chain constraints and disruption due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The monthly inflation rate for the U.S. reached a 40 year high in June 2022 at 9.1 percent, and annual inflation for 2022 reached eight percent. Without appropriate wage increases, Americans will continue to see a decline in their purchasing power.

Wages in the U.S.

Despite the level of wage growth reaching 6.7 percent in the summer of 2022, it has not been enough to curb the impact of even higher inflation rates. The federally mandated minimum wage in the United States has not increased since 2009, meaning that individuals working minimum wage jobs have taken a real terms pay cut for the last twelve years. There are discrepancies between states - the minimum wage in California can be as high as 15.50 U.S. dollars per hour, while a business in Oklahoma may be as low as two U.S. dollars per hour. However, even the higher wage rates in states like California and Washington may be lacking - one analysis found that if minimum wage had kept up with productivity, the minimum hourly wage in the U.S. should have been 22.88 dollars per hour in 2021. Additionally, the impact of decreased purchasing power due to inflation will impact different parts of society in different ways with stark contrast in average wages due to both gender and race.

[Hardcore troubadour 15,137]

Things were better under the last guy. 

[League Champion 1,896]

5 minutes ago, Ultra Max Power said:

Sure, but that link even lays out the reality of the situation.  Real wages are down, the purchasing power of the dollar is down, even if we put a nice bow on the numbers. 

 

We don't talk about that side of it. 

Everything is great, Joe is the best. Yippie!!!!

[seafoam1 2,867]

4 minutes ago, League Champion said:

We don't talk about that side of it. 

Everything is great, Joe is the best. Yippie!!!!

He makes policies that raise gas prices $5 a gallon but what a great guy because he cut gas prices by $2 from the $5 increase!!! 

His lockdowns and handouts cause businesses to go out of business, but now those ex business owners have jobs delivering pizzas!!! Woohooo!! 

[dogcows 1,030]

5 hours ago, Ultra Max Power said:

Sure, but that link even lays out the reality of the situation.  Real wages are down, the purchasing power of the dollar is down, even if we put a nice bow on the numbers. 

 

Inflation in 2022

The high rates of inflation in 2022 meant that the real terms value of American wages took a hit. Many Americans report feelings of concern over the economy and a worsening of their financial situation. The inflation situation in the United States is one that was experienced globally in 2022, mainly due to COVID-19 related supply chain constraints and disruption due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The monthly inflation rate for the U.S. reached a 40 year high in June 2022 at 9.1 percent, and annual inflation for 2022 reached eight percent. Without appropriate wage increases, Americans will continue to see a decline in their purchasing power.

Wages in the U.S.

Despite the level of wage growth reaching 6.7 percent in the summer of 2022, it has not been enough to curb the impact of even higher inflation rates. The federally mandated minimum wage in the United States has not increased since 2009, meaning that individuals working minimum wage jobs have taken a real terms pay cut for the last twelve years. There are discrepancies between states - the minimum wage in California can be as high as 15.50 U.S. dollars per hour, while a business in Oklahoma may be as low as two U.S. dollars per hour. However, even the higher wage rates in states like California and Washington may be lacking - one analysis found that if minimum wage had kept up with productivity, the minimum hourly wage in the U.S. should have been 22.88 dollars per hour in 2021. Additionally, the impact of decreased purchasing power due to inflation will impact different parts of society in different ways with stark contrast in average wages due to both gender and race.

The world didn’t end in 2022. There has been marked improvement so far in 2023. That article doesn’t mention this year at all.

[RLLD 4,180]

I doubt it will happen, but I would LOVE to see Trump collect as many Biden quotes as he can, so he can fire off some verbiage and watch the media disparity in coverage.   The one time anyone tried it the outcome was focking hilarious.  I hope Trump does this....

[Ultra Max Power 214]

17 hours ago, dogcows said:

The world didn’t end in 2022. There has been marked improvement so far in 2023. That article doesn’t mention this year at all.

I think its using a bad inflation number that can be artificially manipulated.  

The federal reserve is using Core inflation for its economic policies.  Core inflation is 5.3 currently and we get a new number tomorrow.  The problem is that Core inflation isn't dropping fast enough.  So far this year its been at 5.6, 5.5, 5.6, 5.5, and 5.3%.  Hopefully last month's number is down, but the target goal is 2%.  This means we're probably going to see a couple more rate hikes this year as well.  

But back to the overall point that wages aren't keeping up with inflation.  Pre-2020 the inflation rate hovered around 2%.  Wage growth was 3.5%.  So a 1.5% net increase for workers.   Currently inflation is at 5.3% and wage growth at 6.1% which is an 0.8% rate.  Almost half of what people were used to. 

The real fear comes from the idea that a lot of this wage growth we are seeing was put in motion pre-covid and we won't see the post coivd adjustments for a couple years.    While this snapshot in time might look good on paper, I think there is a storm brewing for this economy.  

Commercial property loans coming due are going to hurt and turning student loan repayments back on for 40million Americans is expected to hurt several aspects of the economy.   

[dogcows 1,030]

3 minutes ago, Ultra Max Power said:

I think its using a bad inflation number that can be artificially manipulated.  

The federal reserve is using Core inflation for its economic policies.  Core inflation is 5.3 currently and we get a new number tomorrow.  The problem is that Core inflation isn't dropping fast enough.  So far this year its been at 5.6, 5.5, 5.6, 5.5, and 5.3%.  Hopefully last month's number is down, but the target goal is 2%.  This means we're probably going to see a couple more rate hikes this year as well.  

But back to the overall point that wages aren't keeping up with inflation.  Pre-2020 the inflation rate hovered around 2%.  Wage growth was 3.5%.  So a 1.5% net increase for workers.   Currently inflation is at 5.3% and wage growth at 6.1% which is an 0.8% rate.  Almost half of what people were used to. 

The real fear comes from the idea that a lot of this wage growth we are seeing was put in motion pre-covid and we won't see the post coivd adjustments for a couple years.    While this snapshot in time might look good on paper, I think there is a storm brewing for this economy.  

Commercial property loans coming due are going to hurt and turning student loan repayments back on for 40million Americans is expected to hurt several aspects of the economy.   

Core inflation is ONE indicator the fed uses. Pick whatever specific slice of data you want for an exact number, but no matter which one you pick, inflation peaked and is dropping, while wage growth is steadily rising. Here’s an indicator the fed uses that shows the downward trend of inflation too.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/mct#--:mct-inflation:trend-inflation

Interest rates have been hiked, inflation is coming down, but jobs are still being created. It’s pretty good news that inflation came down without unemployment going up. Is that sustainable? I don’t know. But I do think a portion of the inflation was due to COVID relief funds and the supply chain problems that have been mostly resolved now. It’s good to see the fed raising rates, but cautiously.

Also, it’s about time we got the interest rates above 1%. Over a decade of near-zero interest rates wasn’t really good for the long-term health of the economy, and left no breathing room for the Fed if things got bad. Plus, you can now get almost 5% on a savings account. It’s been decades since you could get a decent return on one.

[Baker Boy 1,694]

Living is easy with eyes closed, misunderstanding all you see 

[Ultra Max Power 214]

43 minutes ago, dogcows said:

Core inflation is ONE indicator the fed uses. Pick whatever specific slice of data you want for an exact number, but no matter which one you pick, inflation peaked and is dropping, while wage growth is steadily rising. Here’s an indicator the fed uses that shows the downward trend of inflation too.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/mct#--:mct-inflation:trend-inflation

Interest rates have been hiked, inflation is coming down, but jobs are still being created. It’s pretty good news that inflation came down without unemployment going up. Is that sustainable? I don’t know. But I do think a portion of the inflation was due to COVID relief funds and the supply chain problems that have been mostly resolved now. It’s good to see the fed raising rates, but cautiously.

Also, it’s about time we got the interest rates above 1%. Over a decade of near-zero interest rates wasn’t really good for the long-term health of the economy, and left no breathing room for the Fed if things got bad. Plus, you can now get almost 5% on a savings account. It’s been decades since you could get a decent return on one.

Well the Core inflation number was the one Powell pointed to that he wanted to use.  It is nice to see the inflation number coming down, but there is very real concern over the core inflation number staying relatively stagnant.  Tomorrow's number will be big news either way we look at it.  It would be awesome if core inflation drops in a meaningful way.  I'm just not sure it will.

I agree the covid funds and supply chain caused a lot of the inflation issues and those issues are starting to resolve themselves.  We're in a tight spot though and this "soft landing" might be a pipe dream.  Powell's current assessment of the situation has inflation above 2% until 2025.  That might be optimistic in my view.  

I can look at the incoming vs outgoing numbers in my own household as a middle class American and tell you things are not good.  IF they are going in the right direction currently, it isn't enough for everyday joe to feel it.  We've had to make some cuts to maintain our standard of living.  The Average American is going in the wrong direction currently, so it isn't comforting to see numbers that try to paint a rosier picture when we see what is right in front of us.   

[dogcows 1,030]

11 minutes ago, Ultra Max Power said:

Well the Core inflation number was the one Powell pointed to that he wanted to use.  It is nice to see the inflation number coming down, but there is very real concern over the core inflation number staying relatively stagnant.  Tomorrow's number will be big news either way we look at it.  It would be awesome if core inflation drops in a meaningful way.  I'm just not sure it will.

I agree the covid funds and supply chain caused a lot of the inflation issues and those issues are starting to resolve themselves.  We're in a tight spot though and this "soft landing" might be a pipe dream.  Powell's current assessment of the situation has inflation above 2% until 2025.  That might be optimistic in my view.  

I can look at the incoming vs outgoing numbers in my own household as a middle class American and tell you things are not good.  IF they are going in the right direction currently, it isn't enough for everyday joe to feel it.  We've had to make some cuts to maintain our standard of living.  The Average American is going in the wrong direction currently, so it isn't comforting to see numbers that try to paint a rosier picture when we see what is right in front of us.   

The “average American” has a job. Our purchasing power has gone down, but if inflation continues to trend like it is now, wage growth could simply plateau where it is and we’d still come out ahead within a year or two.

If the fed gets too aggressive with rates and increases unemployment, then you’ve got a lot of “average Americans” who will not have jobs. It’s better for the economy for people to have jobs but slightly less purchasing power than it is to have higher unemployment.

I expect you are right that they will probably toss another rate hike or two at the economy in the next year. Hopefully they don’t need to cause massive unemployment to get this inflation down to their target range again. Based on what I’ve seen so far, I’m feeling pretty hopeful.

[seafoam1 2,867]

29 minutes ago, Ultra Max Power said:

Well the Core inflation number was the one Powell pointed to that he wanted to use.  It is nice to see the inflation number coming down, but there is very real concern over the core inflation number staying relatively stagnant.  Tomorrow's number will be big news either way we look at it.  It would be awesome if core inflation drops in a meaningful way.  I'm just not sure it will.

I agree the covid funds and supply chain caused a lot of the inflation issues and those issues are starting to resolve themselves.  We're in a tight spot though and this "soft landing" might be a pipe dream.  Powell's current assessment of the situation has inflation above 2% until 2025.  That might be optimistic in my view.  

I can look at the incoming vs outgoing numbers in my own household as a middle class American and tell you things are not good.  IF they are going in the right direction currently, it isn't enough for everyday joe to feel it.  We've had to make some cuts to maintain our standard of living.  The Average American is going in the wrong direction currently, so it isn't comforting to see numbers that try to paint a rosier picture when we see what is right in front of us.   

This is all people really need to know. People with agendas can massage numbers all they want but they aren't going to convince people against the reality of the situation. 

My girlfriend and I have been in a routine that stays the same for years now with the outliers being some major spending once or twice a year and if we take trips. That spending is easy to parse out of the picture though. Our daily spending today on the same things we spent on 5 years ago is way up. Beyond normal inflation. I see it in our grocery store reciepts, I see it at the gas pump, I see it in or utility bills, I see it in our casual spending across the board.

And none of it will be going down anytime soon, especially with the big spending democrats in the white house.

[squistion 2,060]

 

[Ultra Max Power 214]

52 minutes ago, dogcows said:

The “average American” has a job. Our purchasing power has gone down, but if inflation continues to trend like it is now, wage growth could simply plateau where it is and we’d still come out ahead within a year or two.

If the fed gets too aggressive with rates and increases unemployment, then you’ve got a lot of “average Americans” who will not have jobs. It’s better for the economy for people to have jobs but slightly less purchasing power than it is to have higher unemployment.

I expect you are right that they will probably toss another rate hike or two at the economy in the next year. Hopefully they don’t need to cause massive unemployment to get this inflation down to their target range again. Based on what I’ve seen so far, I’m feeling pretty hopeful.

I'm hoping for the best as well, but wage growth is starting to decline and some analysts have said this wage growth period was fallout from pre-covid policies and budgets still in effect.  The post covid budgets are getting slashed hard.

I think sadly the bottom line is that the consumer is still viewed as "too strong" for significant inflation correction.  I say sadly because there are a lot of people who don't know how to live within their means still running up massive credit card debt that are keeping the economy humming.  

The commercial real estate market crash is happening, if we don't navigate that correctly, it could be real bad.   

[dogcows 1,030]

23 minutes ago, Ultra Max Power said:

I'm hoping for the best as well, but wage growth is starting to decline and some analysts have said this wage growth period was fallout from pre-covid policies and budgets still in effect.  The post covid budgets are getting slashed hard.

I think sadly the bottom line is that the consumer is still viewed as "too strong" for significant inflation correction.  I say sadly because there are a lot of people who don't know how to live within their means still running up massive credit card debt that are keeping the economy humming.  

The commercial real estate market crash is happening, if we don't navigate that correctly, it could be real bad.   

I think the commercial real estate crash is a concern. Remote work is here to stay; lots of workers like it and it saves companies a lot of money. We still have more need for housing than we have supply of housing though. So perhaps developers can repurpose some of their office space into residential use.

[shadrap 226]

45 minutes ago, squistion said:

 

many here predicted this.  very common tactic for Dems in power.  attack the messenger when you don't like the message.

[squistion 2,060]

1 hour ago, shadrap said:

many here predicted this.  very common tactic for Dems in power.  attack the messenger when you don't like the message.

When the messenger is a Chinese Spy is does make the validity of the message somewhat questionable. 

[seafoam1 2,867]

3 minutes ago, squistion said:

When the messenger is a Chinese Spy is does make the validity of the message somewhat questionable. 

 

 

[squistion 2,060]

 

[dogcows 1,030]

1 hour ago, shadrap said:

many here predicted this.  very common tactic for Dems in power.  attack the messenger when you don't like the message.

Luft was indicted in Nov 2022, months before he started the “I’m being oppressed because I’m a whistleblower” campaign. He’s an agent of the CCP, a collaborator with Iran, and Comer has been working with him to target a sitting president. So now Comer is part of a Chinese plot. Question is: did Comer know he was being used by a Chinese agent? If so, he should lose his committee seat immediately. If not, then he’s a gullible idiot.

[seafoam1 2,867]

1 minute ago, squistion said:

 

Biden loves china. It's proven how much money he's been getting under the table from them. Too bad the money can't help his mental and physical illnesses. 

 

[squistion 2,060]

Anybody of any age can trip and fall, particularly if an object that was supposed to have been picked up if left on the ground (or in this case on the stage).

I don't know what the big deal is, it is not like he has to use two hands to drink a glass of water. 

[seafoam1 2,867]

2 minutes ago, squistion said:

Anybody of any age can trip and fall, particularly if an object that was supposed to have been picked up if left on the ground (or in this case on the stage).

I don't know what the big deal is, it is not like he has to use two hands to drink a glass of water. 

 

[BunnysBastatrds 2,367]

 Bunch of Kkanas city phaggots.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[League Champion 1,896]

 

[Ultra Max Power 214]

18 hours ago, dogcows said:

I think the commercial real estate crash is a concern. Remote work is here to stay; lots of workers like it and it saves companies a lot of money. We still have more need for housing than we have supply of housing though. So perhaps developers can repurpose some of their office space into residential use.

Core inflation came in at 4.8%, which is pretty awesome news.  

[HellToupee 1,654]

 

[squistion 2,060]

1 hour ago, HellToupee said:

 

At least he isn't playing golf everyday while claiming to be working.