Shark tooth Contest: How many wins will The Pittsburgh Pirates Have this Year. 2 Winners

[BeenHereBefore 1,669]

7 hours ago, Bill E. said:

If he likes numbers and baseball you should get him the book.  The other interesting fact is the same guy that wrote Moneyball wrote The Big Short which was the book/film about the traders that figured out the 2008 economic crash was coming and that bad mortgages were being packaged and rated as good.  I keep wanting to read that one but I have not.

One other thing I remember from the book is he thought a good closer was a joke.  He would plug in a good consistent reliever as the closer.  As long as the team stayed consistent they would win the game and the guy would get the save.  Suddenly he was considered a superstar and Billy would trade him for a guy he really wanted and get some money out of it.   then he would start to create the next superstar closer with another player from his bullpen.

 

Yea my dad would have liked both books and movies but he passed years back. I did see the movie The Big Short and didn't know the author wrote both books. I found the movie The Big Short very interesting and informative. I think the NFL GM's are trying to do some Moneyball type thing hoping to draft a elite qb and get the most out of them while they are on their rookie deals.

[Bill E. 703]

19 hours ago, BeenHereBefore said:

Yea my dad would have liked both books and movies but he passed years back. I did see the movie The Big Short and didn't know the author wrote both books. I found the movie The Big Short very interesting and informative. I think the NFL GM's are trying to do some Moneyball type thing hoping to draft a elite qb and get the most out of them while they are on their rookie deals.

Sorry about that I did not know.  I think people in all sports are probably changing how they look at financial investments and looking to get value for underutilized talent. 

[BeenHereBefore 1,669]

1 hour ago, Bill E. said:

Sorry about that I did not know.  I think people in all sports are probably changing how they look at financial investments and looking to get value for underutilized talent. 

It's okay and yea probably true. I think big contracts eating cap space is not worth it unless you are a top 5 elite QB.

[WhiteWonder 3,000]

On 6/21/2021 at 9:34 PM, BeenHereBefore said:

Yea my dad would have liked both books and movies but he passed years back. I did see the movie The Big Short and didn't know the author wrote both books. I found the movie The Big Short very interesting and informative. I think the NFL GM's are trying to do some Moneyball type thing hoping to draft a elite qb and get the most out of them while they are on their rookie deals.

I think we've seen some shifts over the last decade. Running backs no longer hold real NFL value. Very few get drafted early and very few go on to be the studs we used to see who were workhorse backs for many years. Its more economical for teams to ride fresh legs on a 3rd round rookie deal and then move on to the next set of fresh legs. Or deploy a committee. 

A QB needs to be special to get paid. I do think teams are still willing to dish out big $$ if they have a franchise QB though because that franchise QB can make your team relevant for 10+ years and put butts in seats. Also a QB like a Peyton, Brees, Mahomes is easily recognized and helps sell tickets and merchandise. 

Defense needs talents but can sometimes survive on scheme rather than paying big money to an edge rusher, for example or for a big name cornerback where most big time, shut down corners careers also don't have staying power. Not everyone is Deion or Woodson.

You want to have big playmakers on offense but you're only willing to pay them to a point. The game is so skewed in favor of offense and there are so many pass catching weapons that once your star receiver gets too expensive, you can easily move on or have someone waiting in the wings. 

[WhiteWonder 3,000]

13 games to go before the all-star break and the Pirates sit at 29 wins... didn't see them taking 3 of 4 from the Cardinals. 

 

I need a 3-10 finish and I think i would nab it based on total HR tie breaker. 

[BeenHereBefore 1,669]

47 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

I think we've seen some shifts over the last decade. Running backs no longer hold real NFL value. Very few get drafted early and very few go on to be the studs we used to see who were workhorse backs for many years. Its more economical for teams to ride fresh legs on a 3rd round rookie deal and then move on to the next set of fresh legs. Or deploy a committee. 

A QB needs to be special to get paid. I do think teams are still willing to dish out big $$ if they have a franchise QB though because that franchise QB can make your team relevant for 10+ years and put butts in seats. Also a QB like a Peyton, Brees, Mahomes is easily recognized and helps sell tickets and merchandise. 

Defense needs talents but can sometimes survive on scheme rather than paying big money to an edge rusher, for example or for a big name cornerback where most big time, shut down corners careers also don't have staying power. Not everyone is Deion or Woodson.

You want to have big playmakers on offense but you're only willing to pay them to a point. The game is so skewed in favor of offense and there are so many pass catching weapons that once your star receiver gets too expensive, you can easily move on or have someone waiting in the wings. 

That  is a good take on all and agree and specially about rbs.

[BeenHereBefore 1,669]

Back to the Pirates think I'm going to bet against them every game they have left of the season. 5 bucks a game and moneyline and see how I do at the end of the season. Started now and have Colorado against them today for 5 bucks.

[TBayXXXVII 2,679]

12 hours ago, BeenHereBefore said:

Back to the Pirates think I'm going to bet against them every game they have left of the season. 5 bucks a game and moneyline and see how I do at the end of the season. Started now and have Colorado against them today for 5 bucks.

Them, AZ and TX.  Should yield you a good return at season's end.

[BeenHereBefore 1,669]

7 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Them, AZ and TX.  Should yield you a good return at season's end.

Thanks and I checked their records and sounds like a plan as well.

[BeenHereBefore 1,669]

So far so good and won 6 bucks betting against Pirates & Texas. I have 5 bucks each against Pirates, Texas & Zona today.

[WhiteWonder 3,000]

it sounds good in theory but the odds must generally be so bad on a ML bet that two wins will be offset instantly by 1 loss. 3 wins versus 1 loss will probably net you $2.50-$3.00 profit off a total of 4 bets. 

[BeenHereBefore 1,669]

My strategy is working and the Pirates lost 6 in a row since I started betting against them.

[BeenHereBefore 1,669]

On 6/30/2021 at 1:17 PM, TBayXXXVII said:

Them, AZ and TX.  Should yield you a good return at season's end.

Rangers are screwing me and won like the last two and will stick to just betting against the Pirates. Anyhow Happy 4th TBay.

[BeenHereBefore 1,669]

On 7/1/2021 at 9:43 AM, WhiteWonder said:

it sounds good in theory but the odds must generally be so bad on a ML bet that two wins will be offset instantly by 1 loss. 3 wins versus 1 loss will probably net you $2.50-$3.00 profit off a total of 4 bets. 

Yea not going to get rich unless you have big money to bet. two wins out of three games will still win you something.

[Mike Honcho 5,546]

Pirates sitting on 30 wins with a week to go in the first half.  Unless they get crazy hot, it looks like the first half winner will come from this group. They are sitting on 63 HR's.

Fandaddy    30    95
Mike Honcho    31    66
WhiteWonder    32    78
Cloaca du jour    32    79
Posty            32    85
Voltaire    32    99
Mookz            33    76
 

[fandandy 3,314]

Looks like I need them to lose 7 in a row.  

[Mike Honcho 5,546]

6 hours ago, fandandy said:

Looks like I need them to lose 7 in a row.  

Let's see if they can lose 6 in a row.

 

[WhiteWonder 3,000]

One and five! One and five !

[fandandy 3,314]

17 minutes ago, Mike Honcho said:

Let's see if they can lose 6 in a row.

 

[joneo 562]

*****NEWS BREAK!!!******

PIRATES ROLL INTO ALL STAR BREAK WITH SIX GAME WINNING STREAK. 

[edjr 7,034]

What did I win?

[Mike Honcho 5,546]

7 minutes ago, edjr said:

What did I win?

Respect. 

[posty 2,849]

21 hours ago, Mike Honcho said:

Pirates sitting on 30 wins with a week to go in the first half.  Unless they get crazy hot, it looks like the first half winner will come from this group. They are sitting on 63 HR's.

Fandaddy    30    95
Mike Honcho    31    66
WhiteWonder    32    78
Cloaca du jour    32    79
Posty            32    85
Voltaire    32    99
Mookz            33    76
 

You should play the lottery...

The Pirates got their 31st win yesterday, they have hit 66 home runs...

[edjr 7,034]

1 minute ago, posty said:

You should play the lottery...

 

I too always took Honcho for the poor type

[Mike Honcho 5,546]

6 minutes ago, posty said:

You should play the lottery...

The Pirates got their 31st win yesterday, they have hit 66 home runs...

We both know there is no way that holds up.

6 minutes ago, edjr said:

I too always took Honcho for the poor type

[posty 2,849]

10 minutes ago, Mike Honcho said:

We both know there is no way that holds up.

[Mookz 1,388]

58 minutes ago, Mike Honcho said:

We both know there is no way that holds up.

Your only shot is some faulty landing gear or a disgruntled clubhouse worker. 

[Mike Honcho 5,546]

3 minutes ago, Mookz said:

Your only shot is some faulty landing gear or a disgruntled clubhouse worker. 

Jeez we are awful.  Bill E. puts up Meg Sharkteef and we're brainstorming all the ways for his favorite team to lose as many as possible. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,679]

Got 2 All-Stars!!

[joneo 562]

6 hours ago, Mike Honcho said:

Jeez we are awful.  Bill E. puts up Meg Sharkteef and we're brainstorming all the ways for his favorite team to lose as many as possible. 

I'm not!  36...thirty six. 36...thirty six. 36...thirty six. 36!!!

[Bill E. 703]

6 hours ago, Mike Honcho said:

Jeez we are awful.  Bill E. puts up Meg Sharkteef and we're brainstorming all the ways for his favorite team to lose as many as possible. 

No problem.  I was not expecting much this year.  Or next.  Or...

[Mike Honcho 5,546]

23 hours ago, Mike Honcho said:

Let's see if they can lose 6 in a row.

 

 

[Bill E. 703]

6 hours ago, Mookz said:

Your only shot is some faulty landing gear or a disgruntled clubhouse worker. 

Or them playing like the Pirates.

[Bill E. 703]

Just now, Mike Honcho said:

 

oops

[joneo 562]

They're at 32... 

[Mookz 1,388]

[WhiteWonder 3,000]

Fock you Mets. 
 

hope you win @Mookz

[Mookz 1,388]

2 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

Fock you Mets. 
 

hope you win @Mookz

By my calculations, I believe I've clinched.  

[TBayXXXVII 2,679]

Should have a bonus prediction... Wins after the trade deadline.  Odds are the Pirates are going to trade Frazier, Rodriguez, & Anderson.  Moran, Polanco, and Crick/Stratton could also be dealt.  It's possible that in August and September, the Pirates could be fielding a team that may win only 10 of their last 60 games.

[Mike Honcho 5,546]

Mike Honcho    31    66

Mike Honcho    62    176

Not exactly sure what I was thinking...having the Pirates have go from 66 HR's in the first half, then exploding for 110 in the 2nd half.