Pre-Season Overreactions/Observations

[DrG 103]

13 of Zach Wilson’s 33 TD passes at BYU last year were to his TE.

I am buying a number of Jets this year late in addition to having drafted Zach Wilson.

[AxeElf 787]

Steelers and Lions.

The only noteworthy thing from the Lions was all the targets  (5 at the half) for Amon-Ra.  Still my favorite late-round WR target in best ball leagues.

I noticed that the deep ball from Roethlisberger to Johnson looked a little underthrown too--I dunno about FIVE YARDS underthrown--but it did require Johnson to slow up a bit.  in fairness to Ben, though, when you have a receiver breaking deep with five yards of separation, the last thing you want to do is OVERthrow the guy.  So yeah, he floated it a bit--but he got a 43 yard completion to Johnson, too.

Johnson clearly looks like the #1 WR for this offense, with Claypool stretching the other side and Juju working underneath.  The TEs were heavily involved, too--Ebron dropped his first target, but caught a few in the second quarter, and rookie TE Pat Freiermuth caught two TDs (and was targeted for a third, but the pass was well-defended).  I don't chase rookie TEs much, but it might be a sign to keep Ebron on the waiver wire speed dial, if the TE is going to be such a big part of the offense.

And so much for ever getting Najee Harris in the back half of the second round again; his 46 yard catch and run will see to that.

[weepaws 3,202]

Harris and his 2.4 yards per att still should make him available in the second round. 

In fairness to DJ and the Steeler offense, is when you have a wr like DJ ahead of the competition by five or so yards , throw it so he can catch and score a td, maybe Bens arm is starting to become weaker. 

I see a dink and dunk type of passing game. 

I think Claypool when healthy is still the one to own.  

 

[Frozenbeernuts 2,270]

1 minute ago, weepaws said:

Harris and his 2.4 yards per att still should make him available in the second round. 

In fairness to DJ and the Steeler offense, is when you have a wr like DJ ahead of the competition by five or so yards , throw it so he can catch and score a td, maybe Bens arm is starting to become weaker. 

I see a dink and dunk type of passing game. 

I think Claypool when healthy is still the one to own.  

 

I think both are. I have done a lot of mocks where I end up with claypool and Diontae as my wr2 and wr3. Receiver is so damn deep this year its nuts.

If I can get one of Adams, Diggs, or Hill in round 2, I will bite. After that I'm not drafting another receiver until the 6th or 7th most likely.

[weepaws 3,202]

1 minute ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

I think both are. I have done a lot of mocks where I end up with claypool and Diontae as my wr2 and wr3. Receiver is so damn deep this year its nuts.

If I can get one of Adams, Diggs, or Hill in round 2, I will bite. After that I'm not drafting another receiver until the 6th or 7th most likely.

I would agree, wr slot seems to be deep, which is making easier to go rb early. 

After my cornerstone wr, I’ll wait later into the mid round season to go after WRs again.  

[AxeElf 787]

6 minutes ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

I have done a lot of mocks where I end up with claypool and Diontae as my wr2 and wr3.

Thank goodness they're just mocks.  Starting two WRs from the same team is a good way to lower your weekly score ceiling.

[tanatastic 2,062]

I’m always surprised when people react to a big preseason play from rookies. Like, were you expecting him to not make any big plays at all but now that he did he’s somehow validated himself? Makes no sense. Running backs make plays, QBs make throws, receivers make good catches. 

[Frozenbeernuts 2,270]

29 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Thank goodness they're just mocks.  Starting two WRs from the same team is a good way to lower your weekly score ceiling.

Not necessarily. I would be drafting them as my second and third receivers, but more as a hedge to see if one can become a wr1. I have been able to get Sutton cheap also. There are a ton of potential WR2s out there in the later rounds.

If I grab Diggs in round 2 and either Diontae or Claypool turn out to be a wr1, I'm set. The other will be a wr2 at worst

[AxeElf 787]

25 minutes ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

If I grab Diggs in round 2 and either Diontae or Claypool turn out to be a wr1, I'm set. The other will be a wr2 at worst

Seems like pretty starry-eyed optimism to me, but if that's your plan, don't say you weren't warned.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

3 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Must be resting their starters.

For the 2nd half?

[nobody 2,687]

2 hours ago, AxeElf said:

 

I noticed that the deep ball from Roethlisberger to Johnson looked a little underthrown too--I dunno about FIVE YARDS underthrown--but it did require Johnson to slow up a bit.  

5 yards was about the minimum that ball was under thrown.  When these guys are in a full sprint 5 yards is two steps.

[AxeElf 787]

10 minutes ago, nobody said:

5 yards was about the minimum that ball was under thrown.  When these guys are in a full sprint 5 yards is two steps.

So I shoulda said, "I dunno about TWO STEPS underthrown"...?

[AxeElf 787]

Raiders and Rams.

I dunno, neither team played anyone fantasy-relevant, so there's really nothing to report.

Everyone seems so excited about Tutu Atwell, but dang, the kid looks like he weighs 135 lbs.  His draft profile says 155 and ESPN says 165, but the over/under for him hitting the IR has got to be about October.  DBs were throwing him around like a rag doll.

[nobody 2,687]

Xavier Jones looked good.  Had a couple of big plays called back on penalties.

[Frozenbeernuts 2,270]

1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

Seems like pretty starry-eyed optimism to me, but if that's your plan, don't say you weren't warned.

Or I end up with 2 wr2s to pair with a wr1. Or at least one wr2. 

[nobody 2,687]

1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

So I shoulda said, "I dunno about TWO STEPS underthrown"...?

Well the ball was so obviously and grossly under thrown I thought maybe you didn’t understand how fast an NFL receiver covers 5 yards since it’s much much shorter than the time Diontae spent waiting on that ball.

[weepaws 3,202]

Sutton not playing tonight is a concern. 

 

[AxeElf 787]

2 hours ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

Or I end up with 2 wr2s to pair with a wr1. Or at least one wr2. 

Pretty much the same thing that would happen if you chose WRs of comparable talent who WEREN'T from the same team, except that since they are, you've limited their ceiling, which is why you shouldn't do that.

[AxeElf 787]

1 hour ago, nobody said:

Well the ball was so obviously and grossly under thrown I thought maybe you didn’t understand how fast an NFL receiver covers 5 yards since it’s much much shorter than the time Diontae spent waiting on that ball.

It's not like he stopped and waited.  He just wasn't running full speed for the last couple of strides.

[Frozenbeernuts 2,270]

5 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Pretty much the same thing that would happen if you chose WRs of comparable talent who WEREN'T from the same team, except that since they are, you've limited their ceiling, which is why you shouldn't do that.

I think that Claypool and Diontae have a higher probability  than the other receivers around them. So it does make sense

[DrG 103]

13 hours ago, tanatastic said:

I’m always surprised when people react to a big preseason play from rookies. Like, were you expecting him to not make any big plays at all but now that he did he’s somehow validated himself? Makes no sense. Running backs make plays, QBs make throws, receivers make good catches. 

It’s something to watch and yes, you do want to see some validation.

[AxeElf 787]

5 hours ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

I think that Claypool and Diontae have a higher probability  than the other receivers around them.

Ah, then it would appear we have identified the root of your error.

Well, that and drafting two WRs from the same team.

[AxeElf 787]

Buccaneers and Titans.

Not much to see from the Titans.  Firkser had a catch.  This Sargent kid has looked better than Evans and McNichols backing up Henry--but even if he wins that, he'll still be backing up Henry (so zero fantasy value).

The only Buccaneer semi-starter that played was OJ Howard, and they were clearly putting him through his paces to see where he is in his recovery.  He had 2 drops and 3 catches on 6 targets, so mixed results--but he's an intriguing sleeper.  Through 4 games, he was on pace for something like 45/600/8, which would have made him the TE8 last season.  So he and Uzomah are both sitting there as potential top 10 TEs in the final round of everyone's draft.

[AxeElf 787]

Cowboys and Texans.

Almost like real football, with all starters for both teams playing for about a quarter (except for Dak and Zeke).

Ingram is definitely the RB1 here, with Lindsay taking the change-of-pace back role.  David Johnson is rostered in 78% of Yahoo leagues.  Yikes.  Brandin Cooks was just as clearly the top target in the passing game.  He's still on track to be a nice little 9th-round sleeper--and like I said last week, don't forget about Tyrod Taylor in 2QB/Superflex leagues.

With Dak and Zeke out, it was Lamb this and Lamb that for Dallas...  Didn't help that Amari Cooper dropped a pass and pulled a Daniel Jones phantom face plant in the backfield on a sweep.  Bah...  and I have a big auction draft tonight, too.  I can see Lamb creeping closer to the $30 WR range after all the publicity he's been getting now.  Offensive line was opening holes for Pollard; hopefully they'll do the same for Zeke when the bullets are live.  Each Cowboy TE (Schultz, Jarwin) caught a pass.

[tanatastic 2,062]

20 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Ingram is definitely the RB1 here, with Lindsay taking the change-of-pace back role. 

If they had to be on your teams what round are you taking Ingram and Lindsay?

[AxeElf 787]

1 minute ago, tanatastic said:

If they had to be on your teams what round are you taking Ingram and Lindsay?

You can pretty much get either one in the last round from what I've seen.

[tanatastic 2,062]

Watson prob gonna play so all you late QB drafters should take advantage in leagues with virtue signalers who don’t take good players for moral reasons. He was quietly top 5 last season and should still return starter value with whatever drop off happens if any. Bump Cooks up while your at it, he’s an afterthought and don’t think he’s ever not been a value at his adp in his career.

[AxeElf 787]

Browns and Giants.

Neither team played any skill position starters.  I don't know how many starters were playing on the Giants O-line (or Browns defense, if any), but they looked surprisingly good in both pass protection and opening lanes in the run game.

Likewise, I don't know how many starters played for the Giants defense, but they looked horrible as a unit.  I'm ok with that, because I'm heavily invested in the Giants' passing game (in 44 leagues so far, I have 38 Golladay, 34 Jones, and 26 Engram), and I want them to be playing from behind at all times.

[AxeElf 787]

Just now, tanatastic said:

Watson prob gonna play

Do you have any evidence of this, or are we supposed to draft based on your wishful thinking?

There is a ton of evidence that he will NOT play, including having this phantom ankle injury that is essentially making him a healthy scratch from training camp so far.  And not withstanding how the team feels, the league's historical treatment of players who are under investigation for offenses toward women has not been kind.

If you have something other than a gut feeling to counter these concerns, I'm all ears.

[tanatastic 2,062]

3 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

If you have something other than a gut feeling to counter these concerns, I'm all ears.

It’s not written in stone but it’s “more than gut feeling.”

https://sports.yahoo.com/in-a-twist-criminal-probe-into-deshaun-watson-may-ensure-hes-eligible-to-play-entire-2021-nfl-season-183809638.html

[weepaws 3,202]

Isn’t there still a investigation going on in the Watson case, so after that’s over, doesn’t he get to sit down and talk woth the nfl , I think to say that Watson is probably going to play on August 22 is a mighty big reach.  

And even if he does play, the Texans have so little upside players I wouldn’t draft him, but if if Watson plays like Fitzpatrick he’ll make for a good stream now and then. 

[AxeElf 787]

3 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

It’s not written in stone but it’s “more than gut feeling.”

https://sports.yahoo.com/in-a-twist-criminal-probe-into-deshaun-watson-may-ensure-hes-eligible-to-play-entire-2021-nfl-season-183809638.html

All this says is what we already knew--the NFL is not going to do any investigating of their own until the criminal investigation is over.  The Texans are clearly not letting him practice (or presumably play) until the situation clears either, even though the league technically has the leeway to not place Watson on the exempt list until he is axually charged, or until they complete their investigation.

But hoping against hope that the team reverses its stance and that the league then takes no action of its own is pretty starry-eyed.

[jrokh 608]

30 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Browns and Giants.

Neither team played any skill position starters.  I don't know how many starters were playing on the Giants O-line (or Browns defense, if any), but they looked surprisingly good in both pass protection and opening lanes in the run game.

Likewise, I don't know how many starters played for the Giants defense, but they looked horrible as a unit.  I'm ok with that, because I'm heavily invested in the Giants' passing game (in 44 leagues so far, I have 38 Golladay, 34 Jones, and 26 Engram), and I want them to be playing from behind at all times.

I was at the game. Giants played zero starters from any unit, except kicking game.

[nobody 2,687]

Watching the chargers 49ers.  Chargers first drive and it's a jail break on every down.  Easton Stick is running for his life.  Turns out he's a pretty damn good runner.

[weepaws 3,202]

You where not at the game, I didn’t see you. 

[nobody 2,687]

James Hasty looks too small to run between the tackles.  He misses a yard on every run because he seems to get stood up Everytime someone more than 210 hits him.

[AxeElf 787]

Falcons and Dolphins.

No info on any Falcons starters, but the Dolphins' offensive starters played pretty much the whole half (or the half whole) and looked good.  The offensive line looked incredible, giving Tua LOTS of time, and making all three starting RBs look good.  Gaskin especially stood out as being way more involved in the passing game this week than he was last week, so there may be some hope for his owners yet.  The Tua to Gesicki thing is still a thing, too.  I've been kind of a Gesicki skeptic, but for where he's being drafted and the work he's getting in preseason, he's definitely made a blip on my radar.

But yeah, the way this offense is running WITHOUT Fuller and Parker, it may be one of the league's more improved attacks when the season begins.

[nobody 2,687]

Aiyuk drops a pass that goes as an interception against Garoppolo.  Ball was a bit high, catchable.

[weepaws 3,202]

Gesicki should be on everyone radar that drafts te the smart way, double digits.

[nobody 2,687]

Trey Lance's accuracy this game is pretty poor.  He's had some drops, but he's really not helping his receivers very much.