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cyclone24

***Wagering thread***

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2 minutes ago, Fireballer said:

What's your juice?  Several have -3 at plus odds

-105.  Looking at vegasinsider I dont see any with plus juice besides points bet.  They don't show all the books but have several.

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Canisius down 56-54 with one minute to go and they completely sh1t the bed. 

65-57

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3 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

As soon as the line came out I grabbed Green Bay at -4.5.  It is currently at -6.

Problem laying pts with the Packers is they never seem to be able to blow decent teams out.  They either start slow and take over before and after half.  Or they get a good start and cannot step on anyones throat.  It has seemingly been this way for a while now.  

They have been good in the divisional round though.  

All points count but the margin between 4.5 and 6 isn't that big of a deal.  The 5 margin doesn't happen a lot.  28-23? Can't think of a ton more. Of course the moving of thr XP and the more 2pt tties has brought it more into play.  

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2 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

Problem laying pts with the Packers is they never seem to be able to blow decent teams out.  They either start slow and take over before and after half.  Or they get a good start and cannot step on anyones throat.  It has seemingly been this way for a while now.  

They have been good in the divisional round though.  

All points count but the margin between 4.5 and 6 isn't that big of a deal.  The 5 margin doesn't happen a lot.  28-23? Can't think of a ton more. Of course the moving of thr XP and the more 2pt tties has brought it more into play.  

I'm going SF ML +210

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All 4 dogs ML parlay +3800

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The Packers are 6-point favorites vs the 49ers on Saturday. They went 7-0 in games this year where they were favored by 6+ points. 5-2 against the spread as well

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Amex Matchups:

Matt Wolff over Patrick Reed -110

Corey Conners over Abe Ancer -130

 

To win:

Matt Wolff +3300

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Saw this trend for divisional round. 

Saturday home teams are 21-3 straight up & 18-6 ATS over the last 12 seasons. 

Sunday home teams 9-22-1 ATS last 16 seasons. 

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Cincinnati - Tennessee

AJ Brown u 74.5 receiving

Joe Burrow u 279.5 passing

Ryan Tannehill u 239.5 passing

Derrick Henry u 100.5 rushing

San Francisco - Green Bay

Allen Lazard o 3 receptions

Deebo Samul u 4.5 receptions

Jauan Jennings u 2.5 receptions

JImmy Garoppolo u 241.5 passing

Jimmy Garoppolo u 21.5 completions

Aaron Rodgers u 269.5 passing

Elijah Mitchell o 78.5 rushing 

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I'm not betting on the Packers game but for those who are; it looks like Scantling is not going to play.  

He is the lone deep threat so it shrinks the field.  Cobb is back.

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3 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

I'm not betting on the Packers game but for those who are; it looks like Scantling is not going to play.  

He is the lone deep threat so it shrinks the field.  Cobb is back.

Lazard over 3 receptions if that number is still available. 

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UFC 270

------------------------------Early Prelims--------------------------

Hansen v. Jasudavicius:  Hansen has a lot more experience and better numbers which is why she’s lined at -240.  I Like it to go a full 3 rounds too -270.  Both are too much juice so it’s stay away for me which sucks because I like to bet every fight.  Ok, Hansen -240 it is.

Juarez v. Demopoulos: Dempoulos gives up over 5 inches in reach, but, she’s a rock hard tank with twice the striking accuracy.  Both recently lost to Godinez. 2 units on Demopoulos -140

-------------------------Prelims-----------------------------------------

Frevola v. Valdez: Valdez unbeaten in his MMA career looks to make a splash into the UFC after a win on the Contender Series.  Although Frevola is batting sub 500 in his 6 UFC fights I’m going with the veteran experience.  Frevola -185.

Gravely v. Oliveira: Two 30 year olds each with a ton of fights.  The plus money on Oliveira is too much to pass up for a grappler who has a bunch of submissions under his belt.  Oliveira +195.

Rodriguez v. Maddalena:  Maddalena is another Contender series winner with a bunch of wins in Eternal MMA against a guy that has only 4 fights so that’s why it’s lined at -360.  I prefer to take Maddalena by TKO -125

Barcelos v. Henry: Barcelos is the clear favorite by all accounts and that’s why the line is so large at -475. Neither seem to finish though with a lot of fights going to decision.  I stay away, a rare no bet fight for me.

-------------------------Main Card-----------------

Morales v. Giles: Morales is another guy fresh off a Contender Series win into the UFC against a 8 UFC fight veteran.  I’ll take the experience and plus money, Giles +110.

Stamann v. Nurmagomedov: A couple of strikers with similar numbers.  After beating Brian Kelleher Stamann is coming off two losses and I look for him to get back on track against Nurmagomedov.  Stamann a bit better if it goes to the ground.  Stamann +160

Pereira v. Fialho: Strikers.  First UFC fight for Fialho while Pereira is coming of wins against the likes of Niko Price and Khaos Williams.  Feel comfortable laying the juice on Pereira -290 as I think Fialho gets knocked out here in a TKO.   Pereira by TKO +180.

Moreno v. Figueiredo: There is no need to go into the details with this one.  If you missed the two first fights you must live in a cave.  Super evenly matched.  Everyone I know is on the younger Moreno.  I still think Figueiredo is slightly more dangerous and he’s only 34, not quite over the hill yet.  Figueiredo isn’t going to roll over, I’ll take plus money, Figueiredo +145.

Ngannou v. Gane: Fireworks!  There just hasn’t been a heavyweight like Ciryl Gane, ever. Ngannou needs to land big punches and hurt him early or the freak of nature will best him with his striking and grappling skills like we have never seen before in a heavyweight.  2 units, maybe more on Ciryl Gane -155.

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LA Rams - Tampa Bay

Matt Stafford u 285.5 passing

Tom Brady u 290.5 passing

Buffalo - Kansas City 

Josh Allen u 284.5 passing

Patrick Mahomes u 285.5 passing

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Tennessee is the 1 seed, but they are far from a dominant 1 seed that we usually get out of the AFC. They were 5-1 in division and 3-3 vs the rest of the AFC. 
 

Bengals +3.5

Bengals +160

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7 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

Tennessee is the 1 seed, but they are far from a dominant 1 seed that we usually get out of the AFC. They were 5-1 in division and 3-3 vs the rest of the AFC. 
 

Bengals +3.5

Bengals +160

Bengals now+4 most places.  Hmmmmm....

Maybe a teaser on Bengals and over

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9 minutes ago, Fireballer said:

Bengals now+4 most places.  Hmmmmm....

Maybe a teaser on Bengals and over

Ogunjobi is out and that is a massive hit to the d-line, but I'm stubborn. 

Doubled down at +4

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10 minutes ago, Fireballer said:

Bengals now+4 most places.  Hmmmmm....

Maybe a teaser on Bengals and over

Good idea on the tease. 

Bengals +10 /9ers +11.5

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On 1/18/2022 at 11:32 AM, listen2me 23 said:

Im playing it now.  I doubt it goes to 2.5 even though the juice sort of indicates it could.  If it does I will play it again.

Bucs -3 (-105)

I saw it go to 2.5 -120 but didn't bet like I said.  Just staying on this.  I see a +100 now but I am not adding.  

Other plays for today

Tannehill under 30.5 attempts (-105)

AJ Brown over 71.5 yards (-110)

They don't correlate but just have a feeling Brown catches a big gainer.  

May add more degan action on thr Titans game as the day progresses.

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2 hours ago, bostonlager said:

Good idea on the tease. 

Bengals +10 /9ers +11.5

I like this, tease the dogs over 10 points. 

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1 hour ago, Fireballer said:

Auburn +3.5 live

I forgot all about that game today. What was the opening line?

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1 hour ago, Horseman said:

I like this, tease the dogs over 10 points. 

You playing any props today?

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1 hour ago, Horseman said:

I like this, tease the dogs over 10 points. 

By the way - they decided to do $25 in EdEx so only send $10 to Ed for the next tournament 

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16 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

I forgot all about that game today. What was the opening line?

Aub -4.

I love live betting when it works.  I parlayed 2nd half Aub ML with TxTech ML for -119 odds.  And took Aub +3.5 live.  I didn't even plan on betting that game.

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Slipped in a Baylor/Texas ML parlay at -105 odds when Baylor was down.  Baylor actually got to +110 on their own but I had already bet.

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@cyclone24

hey buddy, can you change the thread title to something like the “wagering thread?”  
 

no beginners left in here. 

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4 hours ago, bostonlager said:

By the way - they decided to do $25 in EdEx so only send $10 to Ed for the next tournament 

I'll just pay the balance for the season next time. 

Might look at props for tomorrow. More interested in fights today.  

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Just now, Horseman said:

FREVROLA STEAMROLLER. WOW.  :thumbsup:

I lost count of how many knockdowns there were.  

I jumped in and blind tailed starting with Olivera. I know nothing about UFC. :cheers:

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58 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

I jumped in and blind tailed starting with Olivera. I know nothing about UFC. :cheers:

Gravely did enough although Olivera had the guillotine chances a couple times.  Worth the plus money.

Maddalena with a TKO as expected. :doublethumbsup:

Adding Barcelos to win by decision for the next fight since I didnt bet it earlier. +150. 

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On 1/19/2022 at 8:26 AM, bostonlager said:

All 4 dogs ML parlay +3800

Trying to figure out how to hedge this tomorrow. 

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6-6. Underwater with the juice. Ugh. 

Doubling up on both Figueiredo and Gane. Go big or go home.  I think Fig coming in under weight and trained in Arizon makes all the difference. Gane is a freak of nature. Just avoid the big punch early. Let's Go!

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13 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

Trying to figure out how to hedge this tomorrow. 

TB ML to break even, then you'll know by the time Bills and Chiefs kick off. 

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On 1/20/2022 at 8:28 PM, bostonlager said:

Cincinnati - Tennessee

AJ Brown u 74.5 receiving

Joe Burrow u 279.5 passing

Ryan Tannehill u 239.5 passing

Derrick Henry u 100.5 rushing

San Francisco - Green Bay

Allen Lazard o 3 receptions

Deebo Samul u 4.5 receptions

Jauan Jennings u 2.5 receptions

JImmy Garoppolo u 241.5 passing

Jimmy Garoppolo u 21.5 completions

Aaron Rodgers u 269.5 passing

Elijah Mitchell o 78.5 rushing 

7-4

add in the Bengals ML and this was a decent day

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Just now, Horseman said:

TB ML to break even, then you'll know by the time Bills and Chiefs kick off. 

I have one unit to win 38. 

I was thinking 5 or 6 units on TB ML. If they win I take my multi unit profit. 

If LAR win, 5 or 6 units on KC ML. 

Both favorites are small favorites tomorrow so the MLs are decently priced to lock something in. 

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You can tell they way Rogan is talking he is on Fig and thinks the line should be closer to even.  Fig is +170 now.  I'll take that all day long.

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10 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

I have one unit to win 38. 

I was thinking 5 or 6 units on TB ML. If they win I take my multi unit profit. 

If LAR win, 5 or 6 units on KC ML. 

Both favorites are small favorites tomorrow so the MLs are decently priced to lock something in. 

That works too. I was thinking break even then maximize profits once it's down to a single contest. 

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