***Wagering thread***

[BeenHereBefore 1,517]

Just now, cyclone24 said:

I’m not sure. Nevada might cover the 10 and they might not but I feel gross for staying up and watching it either way

Lol I'm just hoping to break even.

[Utilit99 4,099]

On 2/4/2022 at 9:17 AM, Utilit99 said:

Day 10 - 2/3/22

Went 4-6 down $109.96 on the day.  

Total bets on the day: $490 Total payout: $380.04

Overall  51-33-2 up $497.09 through 10 days of betting on select entries from Greg Peterson's card.

Shllty day and looking at going 4-6 and losing over a hundred bucks puts things in perspective. The juice is tough to overcome in the long run. Then again, we already knew this. Oh well. It's fun. But this is why when winning, you take money out of your account to ensure you can walk away ahead. 

Let's see what we got today!! 

Under 149 Detroit at Wright State $45 - VOID Not included in any totals. 

Won:

Over 142.5 E. Michigan at Ohio $55 to win $105 ($50)

Over 139 Tennessee at Morehead State $55 to win $105  ($50) - That's it. I am stupid. Confirmed. Counter bet coming up. [Edit:] And I focked that up too. 

Over 135 Utah Valley at Stephen F Austin $45 to win 85.91 (40.91)

Boise State at Wyoming ML - $45 to win 84.13  (39.13) -  (Added late - I don't think I had this on my card) 

Lost:

Under 139 Tennessee at Morehead State $75 -  Yesterday was not my day. 

Over 137.5 Troy at Georgia State $45

Under 144 James Madison at Northeastern $55

Youngstown St -12.5 at IUPUI $35

Over 138.5 Louisiana at Little Rock $55

Under 141 Drexel at Delaware $25

 

Day 11 - 2/4/22

Went 4-1-1 up $80.32 on the day including 1 bet from Miami Cappers.  

Total bets on the day: $230 Total payout: $310.32

Overall  55-34-3 up $577.41 through 11 days of betting on select entries from Greg Peterson's card and 1-0 from Miami Cappers.

Bounced back a little bit yesterday. Making a few bucks while having some drinks and playing board games with my girlfriend. Overall I still have little to no confidence in my plays. 

Let's see what we have today.

Won:

San Diego at Colorado St ML: Wager $55 to win $83.95  Added this one late from shared Fireballer post.  

Over 140 Oakland at N. Kentucky - Wager $35 to win $66.82

Under 137 Miami at Akron -  Wager $25 to win $47.73

Over 137.5 Dartmouth at Yale - Wager $35 to win $66.82

Lost: 

Under 156 Toledo at Ball State - Wager $35 - Both teams scored a total of 176. Talk about being a little off. 

Push:

Under 149 Detroit at Wright State - $45 to get back my $45

 

[cyclone24 1,913]

I really wanna throw some serious coin at Illinois because I don’t think Indiana can stay with them but I’m not seeing a lot of people on that game either way which makes me nervous

[Utilit99 4,099]

Well this should be interesting. Some of these numbers are really conflicting and that has me concerned that maybe when Peterson created his sheet, he didn't have all the latest info on the game? I'm guessing Vegas works on their numbers up to the minute if not second.  I'm taking a break. If I hit a couple early maybe I'll bet a couple more later. But for now I'm pulling $100 out of my gaming account to ensure a decent profit overall in case I crash and burn one of these days. Betting a total of $335 already today. 

Good luck all.  

Over 128.5 UConn at Villanova - $55 

Over 146 Northwestern at Nebraska - $35 

 Over 136.5 Tennessee at South Carolina - $55 

Over 137.5 Fordham at St. Joseph's - $65  Peterson's spreadsheet showing 147 as the total to bet on   Something's amiss. 

**********Ok. I just made 4 bets, 3 of which are lopsided in Greg's numbers in relation to the book. Someone is focking up here and I hope it's not me by betting these. 

Texas Tech at West Virginia +4.5 - $45 

Under 138.5 Boston at Lehigh - $35 

Over 134 SMU at Wichita St. - $45

DISCLAIMER: I know so much nothing about college and pro basketball, it's mind boggling. I have watched a total of zero seconds of it over the past few years. Literally. 

 

[Utilit99 4,099]

10 minutes ago, cyclone24 said:

I really wanna throw some serious coin at Illinois because I don’t think Indiana can stay with them but I’m not seeing a lot of people on that game either way which makes me nervous

The Greg Peterson dude I've been following on some of his lines has Indiana -1. 

[cyclone24 1,913]

4 minutes ago, Utilit99 said:

The Greg Peterson dude I've been following on some of his lines has Indiana -1. 

Yeah Indiana is an ATS machine at home but Man Illinois is really good

[Utilit99 4,099]

3 minutes ago, cyclone24 said:

Yeah Indiana is an ATS machine at home but Man Illinois is really good

I grew up in Illinois. Any shot they have a chance to win the tournament? Always like to pull for the home teams. 

[bostonlager 2,664]

10 minutes ago, cyclone24 said:

Yeah Indiana is an ATS machine at home but Man Illinois is really good

Kenpom has IU winning also

[cyclone24 1,913]

7 minutes ago, Utilit99 said:

I grew up in Illinois. Any shot they have a chance to win the tournament? Always like to pull for the home teams. 

If Curbelo can keep his head on straight they can make a run for sure. Doesnt seem to be a dominant team this year

[Fireballer 2,642]

Uconn +5

 

[Fireballer 2,642]

On 1/17/2022 at 7:47 PM, Fireballer said:

Any body ever try the chasing underdogs betting system?  

An update to chasing dogs...it seems to work but it's slow.  Unless your willing to bet big $$$, it's just slow.  As a review...

Bet .1 units on an under dog.  If that loses, you bet .2 on the next bet.  If that loses, you place .4 on the 3rd bet.  If after 7 losses, you just eat the loss and start over. I still haven't figured out how you eventually profit if you have to eat a loss after a 7 bet chase.  I guess the odds are quite low not picking at least 1 winner in 7 bets.  I was actually finding my self winning mostly on 3rd and 4th bets.  I never went to a 7th bet. 

Heres how it works. So say I bet $10 on a dog and they lose.  If it goes out to a fifth bet, for example, I've already "lost" $150 and I'm hoping to win a $160 dollar bet on a dog at usually +110 to +140.  If I end up winning that 5th bet with a $160 stake, I stand to win anywhere from $176 to $224.  Then, subtract the $150 you "lost" and you have profited between $26 and $74.  The sickening part is dropping that $320 bet on the 6th leg, which I only did once.  But you can start with $1 and just keep wagers small. When you get up past your 4th bet, it's very challenging to try to balance picking a dog that has a good chance w/ one that will yield you some profit.  

I'm still doing it mostly because it's fun pulling for a dog. I'm only doing with $5 because I'm absolutely not gonna put $640 down if  I had to go 7 legs. I did Wake Forest for early games today.  Days like this are cool because you can accelerate the process with games all day long.

 

[Fireballer 2,642]

56 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

Kenpom has IU winning also

I've considered Kenpom but I would know how to use it.

[bostonlager 2,664]

Just now, Fireballer said:

I've considered Kenpom but I would know how to use it.

I subscribe. It's only $20 per year and I use it for the tournament when I have my fantasy drafts. 

If you subscribe you can click on the game predictions tab where he has predicted scores. You have to sift through because many of the predictions are close to the actual lines. 

[Utilit99 4,099]

12 minutes ago, Fireballer said:

An update to chasing dogs...it seems to work but it's slow.  Unless your willing to bet big $$$, it's just slow.  As a review...

Bet .1 units on an under dog.  If that loses, you bet .2 on the next bet.  If that loses, you place .3 on the 3rd bet.  If after 7 losses, you just eat the loss and start over. I still haven't figured out how you eventually profit if you have to eat a loss after a 7 bet chase.  I guess the odds are quite low not picking at least 1 winner in 7 bets.  I was actually finding my self winning mostly on 3rd and 4th bets.  I never went to a 7th bet. 

Heres how it works. So say I bet $10 on a dog and they lose.  If it goes out to a fifth bet, for example, I've already "lost" $150 and I'm hoping to win a $160 dollar bet on a dog at usually +110 to +140.  If I end up winning that 5th bet with a $160 stake, I stand to win anywhere from $176 to $224.  Then, subtract the $150 you "lost" and you have profited between $26 and $74.  The sickening part is dropping that $320 bet on the 6th leg, which I only did once.  But you can start with $1 and just keep wagers small. When you get up past your 4th bet, it's very challenging to try to balance picking a dog that has a good chance w/ one that will yield you some profit.  

I'm still doing it mostly because it's fun pulling for a dog. I'm only doing with $5 because I'm absolutely not gonna put $640 down if  I had to go 7 legs. I did Wake Forest for early games today.  Days like this are cool because you can accelerate the process with games all day long.

 

I've done something like this in the past in baseball. But it wasn't this structured. You kind of have to play the bad teams in series against +.500 teams otherwise the ML won't be worth the payout. Although I do get you have to gauge your bet amount to top what you have invested already. Not just preselected increments.  

Even if you go over 7 games if you have endless resources, you can always make a profit, no?  Unless the team you bet on (let's say baseball) goes 0-162. 

[cyclone24 1,913]

Nova -3 1st half cashed…

have Illinois but they are making me really nervous.

Really really like Texas tech for the 1 PM games. They should handle West Virginia I would think.

[Fireballer 2,642]

10 minutes ago, cyclone24 said:

 

Really really like Texas tech for the 1 PM games. They should handle West Virginia I would think.

I'm seeing alot of people on Twitter taking WV +4.5.  I don't like it.  TT is a really good team.

[Utilit99 4,099]

4 minutes ago, Fireballer said:

I'm seeing alot of people on Twitter taking WV +4.5.  I don't like it.  TT is a really good team.

Crazy. Spread just went to TT -5.5 in my book. Was -4.5

I guess they are countering the money on WV. 

I already went in on WV. So I'm not going to change it up at this point. 

[bostonlager 2,664]

Speaking of the tournament. I have tried in the past to get one of these going and there wasn't much interest. I will try in this thread and see where it goes.

- must have exactly 8 players

- everyone drafts 8 teams once the bracket is set. (no points/money awarded for play in games)

- points/money is awarded based on the team's seed and the round they win in. Example - if you have Kentucky and they are a 4 seed and win in the first round, the other 7 players all owe you 4 quarters. If Kentucky wins in the second round, the other 7 players all owe you 8 quarters.

- scoring is kept manually on a google sheet that is programmed to do all the math.

Here is an example of it when I used to run this down the street at the other site before I was banned.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17WwXwArTOn5qwmQHTzsdjcIT9U796ZSTqk8Bk-FK7fg/edit#gid=1769710746

[cyclone24 1,913]

11 minutes ago, Utilit99 said:

Crazy. Spread just went to TT -5.5 in my book. Was -4.5

I guess they are countering the money on WV. 

I already went in on WV. So I'm not going to change it up at this point. 

That’s usually not a good sign. Like last night I knew I was in trouble getting Nevada at +10 and it ran up to +11 1/2 before the tip.

[Utilit99 4,099]

1 minute ago, cyclone24 said:

That’s usually not a good sign. Like last night I knew I was in trouble getting Nevada at +10 and it ran up to +11 1/2 before the tip.

Yeah. For sure. But at this point I'm not going to throw money to counter on this. I'll take the 'L' if it turns up that way. 

 

[cyclone24 1,913]

Cashed out the Illinois game after making a few hundred bucks. I’m not sweating this one out. Especially since it look like crap for such a long time.

lets go Texas tech

Might even sprinkle a little on Iowa State +9. They are a really tough team to beat by double digits

[bostonlager 2,664]

1 hour ago, Fireballer said:

An update to chasing dogs...it seems to work but it's slow.  Unless your willing to bet big $$$, it's just slow.  As a review...

Bet .1 units on an under dog.  If that loses, you bet .2 on the next bet.  If that loses, you place .4 on the 3rd bet.  If after 7 losses, you just eat the loss and start over. I still haven't figured out how you eventually profit if you have to eat a loss after a 7 bet chase.  I guess the odds are quite low not picking at least 1 winner in 7 bets.  I was actually finding my self winning mostly on 3rd and 4th bets.  I never went to a 7th bet. 

Heres how it works. So say I bet $10 on a dog and they lose.  If it goes out to a fifth bet, for example, I've already "lost" $150 and I'm hoping to win a $160 dollar bet on a dog at usually +110 to +140.  If I end up winning that 5th bet with a $160 stake, I stand to win anywhere from $176 to $224.  Then, subtract the $150 you "lost" and you have profited between $26 and $74.  The sickening part is dropping that $320 bet on the 6th leg, which I only did once.  But you can start with $1 and just keep wagers small. When you get up past your 4th bet, it's very challenging to try to balance picking a dog that has a good chance w/ one that will yield you some profit.  

I'm still doing it mostly because it's fun pulling for a dog. I'm only doing with $5 because I'm absolutely not gonna put $640 down if  I had to go 7 legs. I did Wake Forest for early games today.  Days like this are cool because you can accelerate the process with games all day long.

 

You are doing this college hoops and betting the ML?

[Alias Detective 1,399]

18 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

You are doing this college hoops and betting the ML?

Can’t be ML can it.  Chalk can absolutely win 7 straight. 
 

take that back. He clearly indicates money line.

[Fireballer 2,642]

19 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

You are doing this college hoops and betting the ML?

Yes, but you can mix sports

[Fireballer 2,642]

Edit:

Next dog Im picking is Marshall +120.  Back to .1 units since I won my Wake game as a dog. If I lose that I'll prob take Kentucky at .2

[bostonlager 2,664]

6 minutes ago, Fireballer said:

Edit:

Next dog Im picking is Marshall +120.  Back to .1 units since I won my Wake game as a dog. If I lose that I'll prob take Kentucky at .2

IN.  Got them at +125

[cyclone24 1,913]

For those of you that use Fanduel how often do you play the boosts? I feel like the only times I’ve played them they never win. Feels like traps

 

[Utilit99 4,099]

2 minutes ago, cyclone24 said:

For those of you that use Fanduel how often do you play the boosts? I feel like the only times I’ve played them they never win. Feels like traps

 

They have a similar thing on Caesar's Sportsbook. I just dismiss them for the most part. 

[listen2me 23 1,873]

35 minutes ago, cyclone24 said:

For those of you that use Fanduel how often do you play the boosts? I feel like the only times I’ve played them they never win. Feels like traps

 

They are.  I mean they are formulating parlays for you and boosting what? A +500 parlay to a +580 parlay? The boost is highly overrated for something you wouldn't otherwise play.  I know they have some non parlay boosts but still.

[listen2me 23 1,873]

I am playing Nate Oats and Bama at home vs Kentucky.  Only play today other than maybe some UFC.

Bama +1

[cyclone24 1,913]

7 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

They are.  I mean they are formulating parlays for you and boosting what? A +500 parlay to a +580 parlay? The boost is highly overrated for something you wouldn't otherwise play.  I know they have some non parlay boosts but still.

Yeah I did the one on FanDuel today with Auburn, Texas Tech and UCLA winning. Figured I’m really just betting that Texas tech wins on the road. Didn’t anticipate Auburn getting a challenge but they got it.

[Fireballer 2,642]

Hurry to FD if you want -146.  Everywhere else is worse.  I'll prob roll with this, but these guys tend to lay a little for juice than I like.  Their picks are real chalky too which concerns me

 

[Horseman 2,449]

UFC starts off with a +225 Gordon win and a dislocated elbow. Welcome to the UFC Bondar.  

[bostonlager 2,664]

11 minutes ago, Fireballer said:

Hurry to FD if you want -146.  Everywhere else is worse.  I'll prob roll with this, but these guys tend to lay a little for juice than I like.  Their picks are real chalky too which concerns me

 

-160 for 5 units. 
 

will travel to Miami with my henchmen if necessary 

[Horseman 2,449]

5 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

-160 for 5 units. 
 

will travel to Miami with my henchmen if necessary 

Tailing!

[WhiteWonder 2,734]

2 hours ago, bostonlager said:

IN.  Got them at +125

Looking good so far (I also bet them after reading this lol)

[bostonlager 2,664]

40 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Tailing!

Did you ever get into the NCAA tournament quarters draft at FBG? I’ve been trying to get one going here for years and nobody bites. 

[Horseman 2,449]

3 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

Did you ever get into the NCAA tournament quarters draft at FBG? I’ve been trying to get one going here for years and nobody bites. 

Nope, but, I'll play.  

[Fireballer 2,642]

2 hours ago, Fireballer said:

Edit:

Next dog Im picking is Marshall +120.  Back to .1 units since I won my Wake game as a dog. If I lose that I'll prob take Kentucky at .2

More like Thundering Turd today.  

[Fireballer 2,642]

Two more...extreme juice alert.  These guys are hitting 76% of bets, but I don't see how this is a great winning strategy long term.  If you're only winning $6 on a $10 bet, then you need a whole lot better percentage to keep up with the guy making $9.50 on a $10 bet.