***Wagering thread***

[Horseman 2,449]

Thank you Alexis.

Adding Barriault by TKO +400

[Horseman 2,449]

5 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Thank you Alexis.

Adding Barriault by TKO +400

. Kiss of death. Barriault gets KO'd in 15 seconds.  

[WhiteWonder 2,734]

i heard some talk of sites and their boosts in here. DK has a boost on the OVER 62.5 for the pro bowl tomorrow.

 

thoughts? 

 

2019 was way over but over the last several years the over has probably not been the wise bet.

[Utilit99 4,099]

Dang. I jumped on Duke big but this is stupid. Do they continue on at this pace?  

[cyclone24 1,913]

I see TCU is only three point favorites or Kansas State at home? What am I missing here? Seems like TC you should roll

[Fireballer 2,642]

6 minutes ago, cyclone24 said:

I see TCU is only three point favorites or Kansas State at home? What am I missing here? Seems like TC you should roll

I put in KState in response to this.  Dude is usually pretty solid on his info with where $$$ is.  Got pushed down to 3

 

[cyclone24 1,913]

4 minutes ago, Fireballer said:

I put in KState in response to this.  Dude is usually pretty solid on his info with where $$$ is.  Got pushed down to 3

 

So they think KSU wins or at least gets close enough?

what causes that? 
(Disclaimer: im the best bad bettor on the planet..might clear a grand today knowing nothing)

[bostonlager 2,665]

4 hours ago, Fireballer said:

Hurry to FD if you want -146.  Everywhere else is worse.  I'll prob roll with this, but these guys tend to lay a little for juice than I like.  Their picks are real chalky too which concerns me

 

Boom goes the dynamite 

[Utilit99 4,099]

1 minute ago, cyclone24 said:

So they think KSU wins or at least gets close enough?

what causes that? 
(Disclaimer: im the best bad bettor on the planet..might clear a grand today knowing nothing)

We can make millions following you. 

[cyclone24 1,913]

1 minute ago, bostonlager said:

Boom goes the dynamite 

Miami capper is on fire…ill play whatever that dude does

[Fireballer 2,642]

3 minutes ago, cyclone24 said:

So they think KSU wins or at least gets close enough?

what causes that? 
(Disclaimer: im the best bad bettor on the planet..might clear a grand today knowing nothing)

Yes, a KState cover at +5 was expected. So I guess some sharp bettors saw/heard something that gave KState some real value at +5.  In response to that influx of money, the books dropped it to +3 to try to keep some TCU money coming in.  Sorry if this is insulting your betting intelligence but I didn't know how simple I needed to explain.

[cyclone24 1,913]

1 minute ago, Fireballer said:

Yes, a KState cover at +5 was expected. So I guess some sharp bettors saw/heard something that gave KState some real value at +5.  In response to that influx of money, the books dropped it to +3 to try to keep some TCU money coming in.  Sorry if this is insulting your betting intelligence but I didn't know how simple I needed to explain.

Nope not offended…appreciate the explanation. Still pretty new. Ok ill keep an eye on it…may cash out if it tightens up

[Utilit99 4,099]

9 hours ago, Utilit99 said:

Well this should be interesting. Some of these numbers are really conflicting and that has me concerned that maybe when Peterson created his sheet, he didn't have all the latest info on the game? I'm guessing Vegas works on their numbers up to the minute if not second.  I'm taking a break. If I hit a couple early maybe I'll bet a couple more later. But for now I'm pulling $100 out of my gaming account to ensure a decent profit overall in case I crash and burn one of these days. Betting a total of $335 already today. 

Good luck all.  

Over 128.5 UConn at Villanova - $55 

Over 146 Northwestern at Nebraska - $35 

 Over 136.5 Tennessee at South Carolina - $55 

Over 137.5 Fordham at St. Joseph's - $65  Peterson's spreadsheet showing 147 as the total to bet on   Something's amiss. 

**********Ok. I just made 4 bets, 3 of which are lopsided in Greg's numbers in relation to the book. Someone is focking up here and I hope it's not me by betting these. 

Texas Tech at West Virginia +4.5 - $45 

Under 138.5 Boston at Lehigh - $35 

Over 134 SMU at Wichita St. - $45

DISCLAIMER: I know so much nothing about college and pro basketball, it's mind boggling. I have watched a total of zero seconds of it over the past few years. Literally. 

 

Saw the Duke ML and loved it .Played it for $80.

I was only 4-3 up until then. But now 5-3 I think.  Will will check later. 

[Fireballer 2,642]

3 hours ago, Fireballer said:

Two more...extreme juice alert.  These guys are hitting 76% of bets, but I don't see how this is a great winning strategy long term.  If you're only winning $6 on a $10 bet, then you need a whole lot better percentage to keep up with the guy making $9.50 on a $10 bet.  

 

Easy money on Johnson

[Fireballer 2,642]

3 hours ago, Fireballer said:

Two more...extreme juice alert.  These guys are hitting 76% of bets, but I don't see how this is a great winning strategy long term.  If you're only winning $6 on a $10 bet, then you need a whole lot better percentage to keep up with the guy making $9.50 on a $10 bet.  

 

Easy money on Johnson

[cyclone24 1,913]

Whew…got out of the KSU game only losing $50 and then KSU went on a run….good heads up @Fireballer 

appreciate it. Going to roll with UCLA ML just to pad the roll and make up for it. 
 

Good day for me is clearing $100. Up $700 today.

[Utilit99 4,099]

4 minutes ago, cyclone24 said:

Whew…got out of the KSU game only losing $50 and then KSU went on a run….good heads up @Fireballer 

appreciate it. Going to roll with UCLA ML just to pad the roll and make up for it. 
 

Good day for me is clearing $100. Up $700 today.

Dang. Up $700? On what? Post your picks and amounts dude. We'll all be rich. 

[Fireballer 2,642]

Tonight is a good example of how big juice stings.  If you bet $10 on each of the Miami Cappers plays, you finished 3-2 on bets with $5.40 and $6.90 profits on the wins.  With the $10 loss subtracted, you have a only a $2.30 profit.  If you bet 3 bets that were -110 odds, you would have 2 payouts of $9.09 and profit of $8.18 which is almost 4 times the profit.

[cyclone24 1,913]

8 minutes ago, Utilit99 said:

Dang. Up $700? On what? Post your picks and amounts dude. We'll all be rich. 

Just went big on Illinois Bet $490 , Texas tech Bet $350, and kansas /Arizona parlay for $500. Handful of props.
 

i wouldnt recommend following anything i do tbh. Ha. 

[Utilit99 4,099]

4 minutes ago, cyclone24 said:

Just went big on Illinois Bet $490 , Texas tech Bet $350, and kansas /Arizona parlay for $500. Handful of props.
 

i wouldnt recommend following anything i do tbh. Ha. 

NIce. 

You DID like Illinois and TT. 

[Horseman 2,449]

On 2/4/2022 at 4:57 PM, Horseman said:

UFC LET'S GO!!!!!!!!!!

-------------------------Prelims-----------------------------------------

Gordon v. Bondar:  Gordon 1-2 since coming to the UFC against at highly favored newcomer.  This is where I bet small on a more experienced guy coming off a UFC win.  Gordon +225

Witt v. Rowe:  Going with plus money experience again with the guy that has a bit better grappling resume.  Witt +120

Almeida v. Marques: Almeida is new out of Dana White contender series heavily favored because of his much better grappling numbers, way higher take downs and submissions.  Almeida wins, but again too much juice so I go lightly on Marques’s experience. +310

Davis v. Stoliarenko: Journey women Davis is 7-6 in her UFC carrier, been fighting since 2007.  She beat Amanda Nunes in 2007 and then fought and lost to Ronda Rousey in a championship match in 2014.  She’s getting up there in age, 37, but, I don’t think 0-2 in the UFC Stoliarenko is much of a challenge.  Probably doubling up on Davis -220.

Njokuani v. Barriault: Two MMA veteran middleweight strikers.  Njokuani with a ton of fights sees his first action in the UFC against former TKO champ Barriault.  I’m taking the slightly favored Barriault to TKO Njokuani.  -135

Dawodu v. Trizano: Dawodu is chiseled and throws a mean punch for a featherweight striker.  Trizano can trade punches and has some grappling skills so he’s the better grappler.  I think this should be much closer lined than it is right now so I’ll take the plus money on Trizano +160.

Johns v. Castaneda: Similar numbers.  Johns only lost one fight in his career.  Going to take the favorite in the Prelim main event.  Johns -190

-------------------------Main Card-----------------

Erosa v. Peterson: Erosa has better numbers but not more experience and he’s only 4-4 in the UFC.  I like this big number on Peterson.  More than a sprinkle on the underdog, should be much closer, Peterson +250

Gore v. Battle: Gore looks like a beast with only 4 MMA fights going 4-0.  Normally I like the more experienced grappler, but, I think size and unknowns gets it done.  Gore -150

Alvey v. Allen: Allen has his way with a journeyman that hasn’t won since June 1, 2018.  You have to lay the juice, but, I don’t see anyway Alvey has anything left in the tank.  Allen -420

Rakhmonov v. Harris: Rakmonov undefeated, 14-0.  Both have 2 wins in the UFC.  I see Rak getting it done -230.

Soriano v. Maximov: Soriano’s first career loss was against a very good fighter in Allen who fights earlier on the card.  He’s a heavy puncher.  Maximov is undefeated and a little better well rounded if he can avoid Soriano’s heavy hands.  The line is pretty good, but, should be a good even fight.  I’ll take Max and the plus money +160

Hermansson v. Strickland: Hermansson is a journeyman middleweight.  2-2 in his last 4 fights loosing both times as the main bout on Fight Night to Vettori and Cannonier.  Won his last against Shahbazyan.  I love love love, man-crush Sean Strickland.  He hasn’t been beat since 2018 and is 5-0 since most recently dominating all 5 rounds against Uriah Hall.  Strickland doesn’t care about belts, I don’t know if he really cares about money, he never calls anyone out, he just wants to get in the ring and punch people.  And he knows what it’s like going 5 full rounds if he has to whitch was the fear against Hall. Looking to make up losses I suffered two weeks ago on Gane here by going big on Strickland laying whatever it takes. -210

Strickland.  Wasnt the killer fight I was hoping for, but, his after fight interview sums it up. He apologized for fighting like a botch. 

Rough early fights, but, nailed the last 4 including the big one. 

[Fireballer 2,642]

8 hours ago, Fireballer said:

Edit:

Next dog Im picking is Marshall +120.  Back to .1 units since I won my Wake game as a dog. If I lose that I'll prob take Kentucky at .2

Ok, so I had a $5 bet on Marshall which lost.  I came back with a $10 bet on Kentucky at +110 and won.  

So I won the Wake game with $6 on a $5 bet. And won the Kentucky game with $11 on a $10 bet for a $17 profit. Subtract my Marshall loss and I profited $12 on my "dog chasing" method today. I'll start back tomorrow with a new "chase" with a $5 bet. You can see you have to be comfortable with gambling on big bets if you want to make this give you anything more than pizza money.

[Horseman 2,449]

I think Sean was just jabbing/toying his way into the 4th and 5th rounds getting used to the championship long fights before he let loose (he called a 4th or 5th round finish before the fight), but then, figured he was way ahead so he kept on cruise control because his camp has made a recent switch to actually caring about a belt and didnt want to make a mistake. Hopefully the split (lol) decision is a wake up and he goes back to murdering people. Also, Rokhmonov earn a spot into a fav fighter of mine, great showing. 

[BeenHereBefore 1,517]

Lakers came through for me down 20 early. I swear in basketball the team down early always comes back to win. When I bet on a team that starts out big early I always think I got the wrong bet. Think a lot of that is to suck people in live betting to take the team in the lead. Can you imagine the bets for NY when the Lakers was down 20 ? Lakers ended up beating the -5 spread as well in OT.

[listen2me 23 1,873]

10 hours ago, Fireballer said:

Tonight is a good example of how big juice stings.  If you bet $10 on each of the Miami Cappers plays, you finished 3-2 on bets with $5.40 and $6.90 profits on the wins.  With the $10 loss subtracted, you have a only a $2.30 profit.  If you bet 3 bets that were -110 odds, you would have 2 payouts of $9.09 and profit of $8.18 which is almost 4 times the profit.

Right but the -180 plays are generally easier to hit.  Playing sides is all relative to the juice.  Who is to say if you played 5 -110s tonight you wouldn't go 2-3?

It is all relative on percieved value as to when to lay juice.  As with MMA there are only so many fights on a given night that are close to even.  Out of 13 fights last night only 2 fights offered lines that you could consider close to even.  Say less than -130 for the favorite.  

[listen2me 23 1,873]

17 hours ago, listen2me 23 said:

I am playing Nate Oats and Bama at home vs Kentucky.  Only play today other than maybe some UFC.

Bama +1

This did not work out.  Played based just on looks.  A pick em line with 5th ranked Kentucky.  Seemed like a classic public backing the ranked team and sharps driving the line all the way to even.  Sloppy pick.  

I have a couple top 40 I am pulling fot in golf at +130. 

I like betting golf on the final day.  Pick a pony and sattle up.  There is probably no real value in this but I do like to play golf on sundays. 

Boston you like anyone to win at the top? Hard to take spieth or cantlay at those numbers but the cream usually rises.  Can't believe Beau Hoss is up there.  

[Utilit99 4,099]

23 hours ago, Utilit99 said:

 

Day 11 - 2/4/22

Went 4-1-1 up $80.32 on the day including 1 bet from Miami Cappers.  

Total bets on the day: $230 Total payout: $310.32

Overall  55-34-3 up $577.41 through 11 days of betting on select entries from Greg Peterson's card and 1-0 from Miami Cappers.

Bounced back a little bit yesterday. Making a few bucks while having some drinks and playing board games with my girlfriend. Overall I still have little to no confidence in my plays. 

Let's see what we have today.

Won:

San Diego at Colorado St ML: Wager $55 to win $83.95  Added this one late from shared Fireballer post.  

Over 140 Oakland at N. Kentucky - Wager $35 to win $66.82

Under 137 Miami at Akron -  Wager $25 to win $47.73

Over 137.5 Dartmouth at Yale - Wager $35 to win $66.82

Lost: 

Under 156 Toledo at Ball State - Wager $35 - Both teams scored a total of 176. Talk about being a little off. 

Push:

Under 149 Detroit at Wright State - $45 to get back my $45

 

Day 12 - 2/5/22

Went 6-3 up $175.01 on the day.

Total bets on the day: $480 Total payout: $655.01

Overall  61-37-3 up $752.42 through 12 days of betting on select entries from Greg Peterson's card including 2 later bets from Miami Cappers. .

My bigger confidence bets hit yesterday which is good. Not a bad day. 

Let's see what we have today. 

Won: 

Over 128.5 UConn at Villanova - $55 to win $105 ($50)

Over 146 Northwestern at Nebraska - $35 to win $66.82 ($31.82)

Over 136.5 Tennessee at South Carolina - $55 to win $105 ($50)

Over 137.5 Fordham at St. Joseph's - $65  to win $124.09 ($59.09)

Under 138 Western Kentucky at Old Dominion - $65 to win $124.09 ($59.09)  - Added later.

Duke ML at North Carolina - $80 to win $130.01 ($50.01) - Added later.

 

Lost:

Texas Tech at West Virginia +4.5 - $45 

Under 138.5 Boston at Lehigh - $35 

Over 134 SMU at Wichita St. - $45 

 

[Utilit99 4,099]

Small card today. Only 3 for me at this time. Maybe more later. 

Wyoming +3.5 at Fresno State - $55

Over 136 Washington at Stanford - $65

Manhattan +2 at Canisius - $45

[Fireballer 2,642]

53 minutes ago, Utilit99 said:

Day 12 - 2/5/22

Went 6-3 up $225.01 on the day.

Total bets on the day: $480 Total payout: $655.01

Overall  61-37-3 up $802.42 through 12 days of betting on select entries from Greg Peterson's card including 2 later bets from Miami Cappers. .

My bigger confidence bets hit yesterday which is good. Not a bad day. 

Let's see what we have today. 

Won: 

Over 128.5 UConn at Villanova - $55 to win $105

Over 146 Northwestern at Nebraska - $35 to win $66.82 

Over 136.5 Tennessee at South Carolina - $55 to win $105

Over 137.5 Fordham at St. Joseph's - $65  to win $124.09

Under 138 Western Kentucky at Old Dominion - $65 to win $124.09 - Added later.

Duke ML at North Carolina - $80 to win $130.01 - Added later.

 

Lost:

Texas Tech at West Virginia +4.5 - $45 

Under 138.5 Boston at Lehigh - $35 

Over 134 SMU at Wichita St. - $45 

 

Hell yeah!

[Fireballer 2,642]

32 minutes ago, Utilit99 said:

Small card today. Only 3 for me at this time. Maybe more later. 

Wyoming +3.5 at Fresno State - $55

Over 136 Washington at Stanford - $65

Manhattan +2 at Canisius - $45

When you're looking at Greg's stuff, are you using the mini spread sheet that the Twitter user "Badger" puts out after Greg's spreadsheet?

[Utilit99 4,099]

28 minutes ago, Fireballer said:

He'll yeah!

I added wrong in my head and had to change the numbers but still well up on the day. It seems there is a small pattern emerging. 12 days and only had one really bad day. Averaging up $60 a day overall. Only 3 plays today. That can be great or bad.

[Utilit99 4,099]

1 minute ago, Fireballer said:

When you're looking at Greg's stuff, are you using the mini spread sheet that the Twitter user "Badger" puts out after Greg's spreadsheet?

This is the one for today I'm using:

n #	Team	Greg's Line		Rotation #	Team	Greg's Line
2	835	Providence	-6		851	Monmouth	-3.5
3	836	Georgetown	144		852	Quinnpiac	145.5
4	837	Maryland	136.5		853	UW Milwaukee	142.5
5	838	Ohio St	-8.5		854	Cleveland St	-8.5
6	839	Manhattan	-2		855	Nevada	131.5
7	840	Canisius	142		856	San Diego St	-11.5
8	841	Iona	-7		857	Washington	143
9	842	Niagara	134		858	Stanford	-7
10	843	Siena	128.5		859	Akron	133.5
11	844	Fairfield	-6.5		860	Miami OH	-2
12	845	Loyola Chi	135.5		861	Minnesota	147
13	846	Missouri St	-2.5		862	Iowa	-11
14	847	Marist	128.5		863	Houston	-7
15	848	St. Peter's	-6		864	Cincinnati	131
16	849	UW Green Bay	134		865	Wyoming	-1.5
17	850	IPFW	-10		866	Fresno St	130

[Utilit99 4,099]

He gives the link on the right side to his spreadsheet and you can see any date you want.

Here’s my handicapped lines for all of today’s #CBB games, I’ve got the link to today’s podcast with breakdowns for each game & pick with all of the time markers for every game breakdown in the quoted tweet and the link to the spreadsheet too: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-EfIs_KpbjmYikPJ0_LsiIwjXAOA4n0a2sI7Efw50bo/edit

[cyclone24 1,913]

still not sure how to read his graphs….

[Fireballer 2,642]

5 minutes ago, Utilit99 said:

He gives the link on the right side to his spreadsheet and you can see any date you want.

Here’s my handicapped lines for all of today’s #CBB games, I’ve got the link to today’s podcast with breakdowns for each game & pick with all of the time markers for every game breakdown in the quoted tweet and the link to the spreadsheet too: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-EfIs_KpbjmYikPJ0_LsiIwjXAOA4n0a2sI7Efw50bo/edit

Ok.  I don't know if this helps, because it seems like you've got a system going on, but usually within an hour of Greg's post this guy has his own mini spreadsheet that puts the best daily variances in order so you don't have to chase them.  He's using the "Bovada" line which is probably a pretty good representation of the market as a whole. It's usually the first response to Greg's daily tweet.

 

 

[Fireballer 2,642]

2 minutes ago, cyclone24 said:

still not sure how to read his graphs….

Look at my post below yours

[cyclone24 1,913]

2 minutes ago, Fireballer said:

Look at my post below yours

So for example Wyoming is -5 so he’s taking them to cover that?

[Fireballer 2,642]

Just now, cyclone24 said:

So for example Wyoming is -5 so he’s taking them to cover that?

No.  Standby for a long post coming

[bostonlager 2,665]

1 minute ago, cyclone24 said:

So for example Wyoming is -5 so he’s taking them to cover that?

Wyoming is getting 3.5, but Greg believes they should be favored by 1 so we are betting Wyoming +3.5

[Fireballer 2,642]

Greg's spreadsheet really gives alot of info and is kinda hard to digest.  The casual better usually finds it easier to use "Badgers" spreadsheet right under Greg's post.