***Wagering thread***

[bostonlager 2,664]

Just heard a stat on the radio. Division favorites only cover 39% of the time week 1 over the last 10 seasons

[Horseman 2,369]

UFC Prelims 

Miranda +105

Radtke -330

Mularkey -270

Jenkins -205

 

 

[BeenHereBefore 1,467]

On 9/8/2023 at 1:03 PM, listen2me 23 said:

The Bama game is interesting.   They beat Texas by a point last year and the Texas QB got hurt in the game.  From what I can see Bama's skill players are not what they usually are.  Texas has better pro prospects on offense thats for sure.  

But taking Texas almost seems square.  I will probably not bet that game.  

I didn't even know who Bama was playing when I said that and figured it was another bad team; I'm staying away from it too. Penn State came through again but could get a line on them to early today, Got to watch it on Peacock and am mostly betting on the games I gey on TV, Have Notre Dame -7 going now.

[Horseman 2,369]

2 hours ago, bostonlager said:

Houston at Baltimore 

Lamar Jackson u 225.5 passing

 Nailed it. For this game I'm adding:

Edwards o30.5 rush

Singletary o17.5 rush

[bostonlager 2,664]

12 minutes ago, Horseman said:

 Nailed it. For this game I'm adding:

Edwards o30.5 rush

Singletary o17.5 rush

nice. I will knock some more games out as the day goes on. 

[bostonlager 2,664]

Brad Nessler and Gary Daniel doing B1G games now and not the SEC makes me sad. 

[Horseman 2,369]

3 hours ago, bostonlager said:

Cincinnati at Cleveland 

Amari Cooper u 4.5 receptions

Don People-Jones u 3.5 receptions

Elijah Moore o 2.5 receptions

Tee Higgins o 4.5 receptions

Elijah Moore o 32.5 receiving

The only one I have there is Peoples-Jones u3.5.  Adding:

Burrow u265.5

Watson u240.5

Chubb o76.5

Mixon o 59.5

[bostonlager 2,664]

1 minute ago, Horseman said:

The only one I have there is Peoples-Jones u3.5.  Adding:

Burrow u265.5

Watson u240.5

Chubb o76.5

Mixon o 59.5

I looked at Chubb. I hate doing rushing overs though. So many ways to get burned. 

[bostonlager 2,664]

2 minutes ago, Horseman said:

The only one I have there is Peoples-Jones u3.5.  Adding:

Burrow u265.5

Watson u240.5

Chubb o76.5

Mixon o 59.5

My brain told me under on Burrow, I live just north of Cincy, though. I can’t objectively cap them. I’m no diehard Bengal fan, but I’m fair weather as they come. 

[Horseman 2,369]

12 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

My brain told me under on Burrow, I live just north of Cincy, though. I can’t objectively cap them. I’m no diehard Bengal fan, but I’m fair weather as they come. 

I feel better about Watson/Cubb than Burrow/Mixon, that's for sure. But, I decided to go with both sets.  

[Horseman 2,369]

LA Rams - Seahawks

Smith u253.5

Stafford u218.5

Akers o66.5

Sleeper Alert:

Atwell o2.5 -150

Atwell o 29.5 receiving.  

[listen2me 23 1,827]

Luke Musgrave longest catch over 14.5 yds.  -115

[Horseman 2,369]

UFC Main Card

Turkalj -115

Lane by TKO +275

Volkov -250

 

[Horseman 2,369]

Eagles - Patriots 

Jones u215.5

Hurts o41.5 rush

Goedert o40.5 rec

 

[Fireballer 2,639]

DK has Rogers/Allen to combine for 3 TD at +100

[Horseman 2,369]

On 9/8/2023 at 7:17 PM, Horseman said:

Izzy had 12 KO/TKOs in a row leading up to and including his first fight in the UFC. 

Buy you're right.  Hes only got 30% TKO in his wins since then. Sean has only 30% TKO in his wins. And u4.5 -150 isnt a big number.  I think this goes to a decision.  Izzy by pointz is +150, even better most SS and points is +185. 

Izzy SS and points +185 

Sean by points +1200

That should ensure Izzy knocks him out early. 

Waaaaat?

My boy Sean Strickland is the Middleweight World Champion. 

$$

[bostonlager 2,664]

Jacksonville at Indianapolis 

Evan Engram u 4.5 receptions

Oakland at Denver

Jimmy Garoppolo u 228.5 passing

Javonte Williams u 46.5 rushing

[bostonlager 2,664]

I did a profit boost on DK to take the Bengals ML to +153. Will they block me from also betting the Browns ML +110 to lock in a profit?

I was thinking about this last night with the UFC bet where they offered +100 on the favorite. If they do that moving forward, also bet the dog. 

'

'

[bostonlager 2,664]

Tampa at Minnesota 

Mike Evans o 54.5 receiving

Tennessee at New Orleans 

Chigoziem Okonkwo u 34.5 receiving

Ryan Tannehill u 221.5 passing

Derrick Henry o 78.5 rushing

[bostonlager 2,664]

San Francisco at Pittsburgh

Diontae Johnson o 4.5 receptions

 

[Alias Detective 1,389]

Paying heavy vig but like Gesicki +1.5 receptions.  He is reuniting with Bill O’ in NE.

[Horseman 2,369]

Cowboys - Giants

Jones u215.5

Barkley o66.5

Pick you favorite Pollard OVERS

Pollard o2.5 rec -165

Pollard o20.5 receiving 

 

[Mookz 1,338]

9 hours ago, bostonlager said:

I did a profit boost on DK to take the Bengals ML to +153. Will they block me from also betting the Browns ML +110 to lock in a profit?

I was thinking about this last night with the UFC bet where they offered +100 on the favorite. If they do that moving forward, also bet the dog. 

'

'

I did exactly that with the fight: https://prnt.sc/u4cLQcbfDWYM

So you should be good. 

[Horseman 2,369]

On 9/9/2023 at 1:23 PM, Horseman said:

 Nailed it. For this game I'm adding:

Edwards o30.5 rush

Singletary o17.5 rush

2-1

On 9/9/2023 at 1:40 PM, Horseman said:

The only one I have there is Peoples-Jones u3.5.  Adding:

Burrow u265.5

Watson u240.5

Chubb o76.5

Mixon o 59.5

4-1

Total 6-2 on the early games. 

[Horseman 2,369]

On 9/9/2023 at 2:08 PM, Horseman said:

Sleeper Alert:

Atwell o2.5 -150

Atwell o 29.5 receiving.  

[bostonlager 2,664]

On 9/9/2023 at 1:35 PM, bostonlager said:

Carolina at Atlanta

Drake London o 4.5 receptions 

Houston at Baltimore 

Lamar Jackson u 225.5 passing

Cincinnati at Cleveland 

Amari Cooper u 4.5 receptions

Don People-Jones u 3.5 receptions

Elijah Moore o 2.5 receptions

Tee Higgins o 4.5 receptions

Elijah Moore o 32.5 receiving

 

12 hours ago, bostonlager said:

Jacksonville at Indianapolis 

Evan Engram u 4.5 receptions

Oakland at Denver

Jimmy Garoppolo u 228.5 passing

Javonte Williams u 46.5 rushing

 

11 hours ago, bostonlager said:

Tampa at Minnesota 

Mike Evans o 54.5 receiving

Tennessee at New Orleans 

Chigoziem Okonkwo u 34.5 receiving

Ryan Tannehill u 221.5 passing

Derrick Henry o 78.5 rushing

 

11 hours ago, bostonlager said:

San Francisco at Pittsburgh

Diontae Johnson o 4.5 receptions

9-6 today. 10-6 for NFL season. 

Buffalo at NYJ

Garrett Wilson o 5.5 receptions

 

[Horseman 2,369]

On 9/9/2023 at 2:08 PM, Horseman said:

LA Rams - Seahawks

Smith u253.5

Stafford u218.5

Akers o66.5

Sleeper Alert:

Atwell o2.5 -150

Atwell o 29.5 receiving.  

3-2

On 9/9/2023 at 2:38 PM, Horseman said:

Eagles - Patriots 

Jones u215.5

Hurts o41.5 rush

Goedert o40.5 rec

 

0-3 Should have known better than to try and predict a Phi-NE game. 

3-5 afternoon games. 

9-7 total

[Horseman 2,369]

On 9/8/2023 at 9:15 AM, Horseman said:

Found it.

That was 5 years ago though. 

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/nfl-league-average-points-per-game-by-year-2001-to-2022

Last year hit 70%.

Last year 50% of the teams scored 20 points or less.

Without going and getting 2019, 2020 and 2021 it won't budge the percentage very much.

Bal/Hou u43.5

Cle/Cin u47.5

Ind/Jax u46.5

Min/TB u45.5

NO/Ten u41.5

Pti/49rs u41.5

Chi/GB u41.5

Den/Las u44.0

NE/Phi u 45.0

Sea/Lar u46.5

Nyg/Dal u45.5

Nyj/Buf u45.5

 

 

 

7-2-1 with two games to go.

That's 64% even if the last two dont hit. 

[bostonlager 2,664]

4 minutes ago, Horseman said:

7-2-1 with two games to go.

That's 64% even if the last two dont hit. 

I was going to bump it earlier but didn’t want to throw a jinx hammer down on it 

[listen2me 23 1,827]

23 hours ago, Horseman said:

Waaaaat?

My boy Sean Strickland is the Middleweight World Champion. 

$$

Insane.  Did not see that coming.  And lopsided fight.  

[listen2me 23 1,827]

2-1. Wins on the Mus over and Elijah Moore receptions.  Total wiff on Izzy fight.  

Didn't post them but also took the Musgrave yds over and Reed yds over.  Felt they would both be underestimated because they are rookies.  But both will be a big part of the offense even when Watson returns.  Their lines may now over juice.. we will see. 

[BeenHereBefore 1,467]

The Betting Gods had it in for me today, lost 9 out of my 10 football bets and only won the under on the Ravens game. My internet decided to go out when I was going to bet on a horse that was 19 to 1 that ended up winning. Internet back up and bet on another horse who wins and then gets disqualified . Take the Giants for a $30 bet at half time and get 25.5 points.

[listen2me 23 1,827]

5 hours ago, bostonlager said:

 

 

 

9-6 today. 10-6 for NFL season. 

Buffalo at NYJ

Garrett Wilson o 5.5 receptions

 

Nice job.  And yeah was about to post I took this as well.   Like it.  

[Horseman 2,369]

Ima just put this here:

 

 

[Horseman 2,369]

 

 

[bostonlager 2,664]

A few years ago there was a guy that wrote a weekly article for one of the rotos - world or wire. He went NFL game by game with his predictions on game flow/script and he was dead on accurate for the most part. If I remember correctly he had a messican sounding name, but have no clue what it was. He also left roto and went to another site and I can't remember that either. Anyone have any idea who I am talking about and where his articles might be found today? They are extremely useful when capping props. 

[listen2me 23 1,827]

25 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

A few years ago there was a guy that wrote a weekly article for one of the rotos - world or wire. He went NFL game by game with his predictions on game flow/script and he was dead on accurate for the most part. If I remember correctly he had a messican sounding name, but have no clue what it was. He also left roto and went to another site and I can't remember that either. Anyone have any idea who I am talking about and where his articles might be found today? They are extremely useful when capping props. 

Evan Silva?

[bostonlager 2,664]

1 minute ago, listen2me 23 said:

Evan Silva?

YES!!!! thanks, man

[bostonlager 2,664]

Candidates for week 2 overreaction

Cincinnati -3.5 vs Baltimore

Minnesota +7 vs Philadelphia

[bostonlager 2,664]

Evan Silva website subscription fees: 

$25/week

$75/month

$229/year 

Fock you, Evan.