***Wagering thread***

[bostonlager 2,664]

2 minutes ago, Horseman said:

11-11 Props

2-0 sides 

Talk about spinning my wheels. 

 

Good week, bad week, good week, bad week. 

I can feel a heater coming on soon. 

[GutterBoy 2,899]

Was 6-1 on sides this week, throw in some parlays and teasers and good week.  I've been avoiding props as it seems like a .500 play every week.  Unless it's a screaming buy I just avoid, or I throw in a parlay of the game narrative makes sense 

[Horseman 2,449]

27 minutes ago, GutterBoy said:

Was 6-1 on sides this week, throw in some parlays and teasers and good week.  I've been avoiding props as it seems like a .500 play every week.  Unless it's a screaming buy I just avoid, or I throw in a parlay of the game narrative makes sense 

Sure you were. 

[BeachGuy23 642]

28 minutes ago, GutterBoy said:

Was 6-1 on sides this week, throw in some parlays and teasers and good week.  I've been avoiding props as it seems like a .500 play every week.  Unless it's a screaming buy I just avoid, or I throw in a parlay of the game narrative makes sense 

Throw your bets out there friend.

I'll be putting my Monday props and other bets up later.

[GutterBoy 2,899]

9 minutes ago, BeachGuy23 said:

Throw your bets out there friend.

I'll be putting my Monday props and other bets up later.

Yeah I know, Boston Lager has been telling me the same thing, I normally don't think about it.  I make my bets over the weekend and usually don't post.

[bostonlager 2,664]

Seahawks at Giants

Matt Brieda u 47.5 rushing 

 

As soon as I placed this bet DK put locks on the entire SEA/NYG game and took it off the board. Will take a look later if they put it back up. 

[BeachGuy23 642]

16 minutes ago, GutterBoy said:

Yeah I know, Boston Lager has been telling me the same thing, I normally don't think about it.  I make my bets over the weekend and usually don't post.

Thanks.  Will benefit all of us. 

[Horseman 2,449]

32 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

Seahawks at Giants

Matt Brieda u 47.5 rushing 

 

As soon as I placed this bet DK put locks on the entire SEA/NYG game and took it off the board. Will take a look later if they put it back up. 

U46.5 at SB. 

[Horseman 2,449]

SEA-NYG

KCC-2.0 with SEA+4.5

Geno o1.5tds

Walker o66.5 ugh

Walker o10.5

Brieda u46.5

Metcalf o65.5

Slayton u40.5

Hodgins u2.5

Williams o2.5t+a

Hawkins o3.5t+a

McKinney o4.5t+a

 

 

[listen2me 23 1,873]

Anyone notice DK has watered down the same game parlay options? 

They will have receptions but there is only the single regular line.  You cant take the receptions down or up no alternates.  For team scoring they also have a single line.  Cannot bring it up or down.  

Hit 6 out of 7 legs for the Bills game besides Diggs over 6.5 catches.   If I were able I would have brought it down and went over.  He had 6.  

Sort of stupid to change it mid season.  But maybe they were getting their azz kicked.  Time to venture over to FD.  

[BeachGuy23 642]

Zach Charbonnet o23.5

Daniel Jones o231.5 

Tyler Lockett o52.5 

Seattle +1

[GutterBoy 2,899]

NYG ML

Jones o34.5

Jones o229.5

Charbonnet u24.5

Brieda o13.5

Waller o4.5

Waller o46.5

Parlay is +3100

[BeachGuy23 642]

13 minutes ago, GutterBoy said:

NYG ML

Jones o34.5

Jones o229.5

Charbonnet u24.5

Brieda o13.5

Waller o4.5

Waller o46.5

Parlay is +3100

Thanks.  Both pass Ds are dreadful.  NY gets their prime LT back so DJ should have more time and Seattle secondary is missing like it's 3 top guys.  Seattle's last 3 games passing yards given up:  334, 311, 334 (Rams, Lions, Panthers)

[GutterBoy 2,899]

1 minute ago, BeachGuy23 said:

Thanks.  Both pass Ds are dreadful.  NY gets their prime LT back so DJ should have more time and Seattle secondary is missing like it's 3 top guys.  Seattle's last 3 games passing yards given up:  334, 311, 334 (Rams, Lions, Panthers)

Andrew Thomas is out tonight, but Seattle doesn't get much pressure, so yeah DJ will have more time.  Seattle O Line is banged up, and NYG DC has called out his line for the sh1tty run D.  Expect a good performance by the G Men tonight.

[BeenHereBefore 1,517]

6 hours ago, BeachGuy23 said:

Congrats on the 5 leg win.  That's a nice payday.

I bet regularly and will start posting my picks, more feedback from other gamblers is usually good.

Thanks and am starting to figure them out and was 9 for 11 on the spread in the games I bet on yesterday. I like the Giants tonight. I agree on more feedback.

[bostonlager 2,664]

8 hours ago, bostonlager said:

Seahawks at Giants

Matt Brieda u 47.5 rushing 

 

As soon as I placed this bet DK put locks on the entire SEA/NYG game and took it off the board. Will take a look later if they put it back up. 

Adding

Wandale Robinson o 19.5 receiving

Matt Brieda u 63.5 r+r

 

[Alias Detective 1,399]

Giants + 2.5

 

[Fireballer 2,642]

Really wanna pull the trigger on G men, but can’t figure out why line moves to +2.5 if most of the money is already on the dog?

[bostonlager 2,664]

Sanderson Farms Championship

Harry Higgs +20000 

Hopefully the Big Rig gets his card back this year. 

[BeachGuy23 642]

Throwing a prayer out there by playing both QBs way over their over/under passing totals and for each to throw 2+TDs.

These pass Ds are really bad.  

[bostonlager 2,664]

Live bet

o 96.5 penalties

[BeachGuy23 642]

Oof.

On to week 5. 

[bostonlager 2,664]

22 hours ago, bostonlager said:

Seahawks at Giants

Matt Brieda u 47.5 rushing 

 

As soon as I placed this bet DK put locks on the entire SEA/NYG game and took it off the board. Will take a look later if they put it back up. 

 

14 hours ago, bostonlager said:

Adding

Wandale Robinson o 19.5 receiving

Matt Brieda u 63.5 r+r

 

Week 1: 11-7

Week 2: 7-14

Week 3: 20-11

Week 4:14-13

Season to date: 52-45 (.536)

[Horseman 2,449]

23 hours ago, Horseman said:

SEA-NYG

KCC-2.0 with SEA+4.5 

Geno o1.5tds

Walker o66.5 ugh

Walker o10.5

Brieda u46.5

Metcalf o65.5

Slayton u40.5

Hodgins u2.5

Williams o2.5t+a

Hawkins o3.5t+a

McKinney o4.5t+a

 

 

1-0

4-5

Season Totals

Sides 14-5-1 (.737)

Props 60-55 (.522)

Teasers 2-1 (.667)

I have to reevaluate props.  4 weeks and over a hundred bets is enough to show my system isn't quite working.  Game outcomes are predictable, they're just happening in unexpected ways.  Last night is the perfect example: Looking at the score you'd think that Seattle controlled the ball and that offensive stats would be high, but, in reality NYG ended up winning the time of possession 36 minutes to 24.  Instead Seattle's middling defense turned out to be the story with the Giant's imploding.  

[BeachGuy23 642]

3 hours ago, Horseman said:

1-0

4-5

Season Totals

Sides 14-5-1 (.737)

Props 60-55 (.522)

Teasers 2-1 (.667)

I have to reevaluate props.  4 weeks and over a hundred bets is enough to show my system isn't quite working.  Game outcomes are predictable, they're just happening in unexpected ways.  Last night is the perfect example: Looking at the score you'd think that Seattle controlled the ball and that offensive stats would be high, but, in reality NYG ended up winning the time of possession 36 minutes to 24.  Instead Seattle's middling defense turned out to be the story with the Giant's imploding.  

Are you sides ATS or straight up?  Either way that's impressive.

And great point about props.  I always think mine are "can't lose" but variance or injury or something else unexpected gets in the way a lot.

[bostonlager 2,664]

Kevin Gausman o 7.5 K

[bostonlager 2,664]

3 hours ago, Horseman said:

1-0

4-5

Season Totals

Sides 14-5-1 (.737)

Props 60-55 (.522)

Teasers 2-1 (.667)

I have to reevaluate props.  4 weeks and over a hundred bets is enough to show my system isn't quite working.  Game outcomes are predictable, they're just happening in unexpected ways.  Last night is the perfect example: Looking at the score you'd think that Seattle controlled the ball and that offensive stats would be high, but, in reality NYG ended up winning the time of possession 36 minutes to 24.  Instead Seattle's middling defense turned out to be the story with the Giant's imploding.  

What sucks is they quit offering receptions on college football all together and for NFL they no longer offer even numbers. Everything is now .5 with adjusted juice. It saved me money last night as I would have taken Metcalf o5 -120, but I'm not touching 04.5 -180. Overall though, it has cut into profits. 

[bostonlager 2,664]

3 hours ago, bostonlager said:

Kevin Gausman o 7.5 K

Fock baseball. Back to the drawing board 

[bostonlager 2,664]

Jesus Luzardo o 5.5

Semi-hedge Phillies -1.5 +140

[bostonlager 2,664]

Rays -1.5 +140 

Elfin great at home all season. Evaldi has sucked since coming back from injury.

[Horseman 2,449]

UFC FIGHT NIGHT

Having UFC withdrawals after a week off.  Posting early.  Was really excited about this card until heavy lines came out.  Calls for a Parlay of the heavy hitters.

De LaRosa -140

Demopoulos +260 

Kowalkiewicz -155

Cutelaba -150

Alego -145

Morono +150

Dober/Pyfer/Dawson Parlay -110

 

It's already been a great year, but, there are some MASSIVE fights left.  UFC 294, 295 and 296 are absolutely LOADED.

 

[bostonlager 2,664]

1 hour ago, bostonlager said:

Rays -1.5 +140 

Elfin great at home all season. Evaldi has sucked since coming back from injury.

[bostonlager 2,664]

Twins -140. Rolling with the form Red, Sonny Gray 

[kilroy69 1,247]

I see some ugly games this week. Mostly low scoring. 

 

Baltimore on the under 38.5 is +190 on MGM.  The steelers may not score a single touchdown with 3 linemen out/injured and pickett hobbling.  Game ends up 21-9 in a game where Jackson scores 2 tds on the ground and edwards runs one in from like 3 yards out. 

 

Saints under 40.5. is +270. The Saints D is good enough to continue to make Jones struggle while Carr is "better" but even healthy he has looked like shitt. this game probably ends up 14-6 saints. 

Texans under 41.5 is +280 also. The texans are clicking and will likely continue to while the falcons will score a TD  it neve willr be in the game.  Game ends up 21-10 or 21-14. 

 

Cards on the under 44.5 vs the Bengals +320. Burrow has looked like trash all season and there is no reason to believe he is going to hold up any better vs an AZ team I was SURE had to be tanking. The Bengals are bad at EVERYTHING and Arizona may not be great but they likely pull out a win by a figgy because they are surprisingly NOT bad at everything. 17-14 AZ. 

 

Chiefs over 53.5 is +188 the Vikes can not get out of their own way this year and the chiefs are...well...the chiefs. Even with the scare last week. Should be a slugfest but one that the Mahomes pulls out. 

Broncos over 43.5 is +240. The Broncos D is bad. but the Jets D is not that much better. 17th vs the pass and 28th vs the run. The broncos have hit the over on 3 of 4 and R. Wilson are actually playing pretty good.  35-21

[BeachGuy23 642]

Thursday Night Game:

Sam Howell o12.5 Rushing Yards

Cole Kmet o30.5 Receiving Yards

Justin Fields o0.5 interceptions

Sam Howell to throw 2+ passing touchdowns

[bostonlager 2,664]

Bears at Redskins 

Terry McLaurin o 4.5 receptions

Darnell Mooney o 2.5 receptions

Sam Howell o 31.5 pass att

Sam Howell o 21.5 completions

[Horseman 2,449]

Gibson u2.5

McLaurin o4.5

Forrest o4.5ta

Fuller o3.5ta

[bostonlager 2,664]

38 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Gibson u2.5

McLaurin o4.5

Forrest o4.5ta

Fuller o3.5ta

Rudnicki used to be badass at t+a but I could never figure it out. What is your mindset on those plays?

[BeachGuy23 642]

On 10/5/2023 at 5:32 AM, BeachGuy23 said:

Thursday Night Game:

Sam Howell o12.5 Rushing Yards

Cole Kmet o30.5 Receiving Yards

Justin Fields o0.5 interceptions

Sam Howell to throw 2+ passing touchdowns

Hit 3 / 4.  

Not bad. 

[Horseman 2,449]

22 hours ago, bostonlager said:

Rudnicki used to be badass at t+a but I could never figure it out. What is your mindset on those plays?

Catching lines off than what theyve been performing in the first 4 weeks plus situations where they're expected to be on the field playing defence for overs.  Trying something new.  I'm only 3-2 I think so nothing to get excited about yet through 2 games. I expected Seattle to dominate, then they lose the time of possession. I figured Chicago plays a good game too, then Washington has zero tackles on the back end, just let them walk into the endzone all day.