BeenHereBefore 1,336 Posted September 20, 2021 Well at least I got the over right in my loss. I actually thought Balt Defense was better but sh!t both weeks. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fireballer 2,384 Posted September 20, 2021 2 hours ago, BeenHereBefore said: I'm going to have to start messing with Teasers and have Ravens on ML for this game. HOLY SMOKES! What odds on your ML? What a damn game Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fireballer 2,384 Posted September 20, 2021 3 hours ago, Fireballer said: I'm doing a conservative (hopefully) DK Same Game Parlay with alternate spread and o/u. BLT +10.5 O 43.5 It's -120 odds. If you do a 7 pt teaser, you get Blt +10.5, but o/u under onky drops to 46.5 and it's only -140. Nice little bump made up for today 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BeenHereBefore 1,336 Posted September 20, 2021 3 hours ago, Fireballer said: HOLY SMOKES! What odds on your ML? What a damn game I had like 30 bucks on them and over ML to win which paid like 70 something and had them just to win ML . I just felt it and sometimes can see a upset coming in Prime Time. Got my money back and and happy! I had 5 cents left in my account after the bet. I think Prime Time games are fixed and good figuring them out. Thursday not to much but Sunday & Monday cause lot of viewers and betters. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BeenHereBefore 1,336 Posted September 20, 2021 I don't care what strategy you use or bet on you can win if you put the homework in. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
listen2me 23 1,545 Posted September 20, 2021 3 more games decided by 1 point. Was busy this week and had zilch for bets this week. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BeenHereBefore 1,336 Posted September 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said: 3 more games decided by 1 point. Was busy this week and had zilch for bets this week. Looking like a trend ? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bostonlager 2,465 Posted September 20, 2021 20 hours ago, bostonlager said: 1:00 Games: 22-16-1 16 hours ago, bostonlager said: 4:00 games: 10-17 Sunday Total: 32-33-1 Season total: 147-104-5 College season: 76-38-4 NFL season: 71-66-2 No plays for MNF. I think I need to take a step back and quit forcing the NFL plays. Going to try to play only what the numbers justify going forward. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
listen2me 23 1,545 Posted September 20, 2021 Like anything tonight? Id like to bet the game in some fashion. I'm bad at props generally because I have a hard time pulling the trigger on unders. Any opinion on Aaron Jones over 68.5 rush yards? I think they make it a point to run the ball well tonight. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bostonlager 2,465 Posted September 20, 2021 38 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said: Like anything tonight? Id like to bet the game in some fashion. I'm bad at props generally because I have a hard time pulling the trigger on unders. Any opinion on Aaron Jones over 68.5 rush yards? I think they make it a point to run the ball well tonight. I hate taking rushing overs, but if I was going to take one, it would be this one considering how SF gashed them last week. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bostonlager 2,465 Posted September 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, bostonlager said: I hate taking rushing overs, but if I was going to take one, it would be this one considering how SF gashed them last week. The one thing I worry about is how many carries is AJ Dillon going to steal? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
listen2me 23 1,545 Posted September 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, bostonlager said: The one thing I worry about is how many carries is AJ Dillon going to steal? That is true. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bostonlager 2,465 Posted September 20, 2021 Ryder Cup - Race to 10 points - Europe +140. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WhiteWonder 2,172 Posted September 20, 2021 Yesterday was not a great day. At least I was wagering with all free money. DK has given me 20 free $5 wagers based on casino play which I finished up on , BetMGM have me a 100% deposit match up to $50 with a 1x play through requirement and FanDuel gave me $125 with a 1x play through just for making a $5 bet didn’t hit any of my several large parlays. Hit a smaller parlay Rams and Bills ML. Hit Chubb over 87 rushing and Drake over 2.5 receptions. Lost Melvin Gordon over 51 rush yards, Damien Harris over 16.5 rush attempts (he had 16 ), Hines over 3.5 receptions, Kamara over 4.5 receptions and the game script was in his favor. did hit Kupp to score at +130 and Demarcus Robinson to score last night at +500. Those saved me. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jerryskids 5,209 Posted September 20, 2021 What I'm learning is that the oddsmakers know some things. I am hella impressed with how close the numbers have been, and in that case seemingly random chances push the win one way or the other, and the house wins from the vig. Take last night, I had CEH u 49.5 rushing and Chiefs -3.5. If the Ravens the the 2 pt conversion, they are up 3 and the Chiefs go for 4, good shot for me at winning. But they don't, so I probably lose. CEH enters the last drive with 48 yds, another loss but WAIT! He fumbles, Chiefs never get the ball back, I win that. Cards Vikes, I lose Jefferson u 5.5 catches by .5 on the last drive, lose Kirk o 3.5 by .5... this NFL thing is looking like a slow bleed. Maybe I'll figure out NBA betting. BTW, my wife went to that game and won another parlay, Kirk 40+ and Kyler 1+ rushing TD. She has more than doubled her free S75 from FD. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TimmySmith 2,782 Posted September 20, 2021 9 minutes ago, jerryskids said: What I'm learning is that the oddsmakers know some things. I am hella impressed with how close the numbers have been, and in that case seemingly random chances push the win one way or the other, and the house wins from the vig. They are using AI and algorithms. A friend of mine was trying to do a startup, where you can bet run/pass, length, and everything else on every play from your seat. He said it was all figured out. I actually think the game lines themselves are less sharp than they used to be, particularly in college. Everyone is into props, now. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WhiteWonder 2,172 Posted September 20, 2021 Very few of my prop losses this year have been by that .5. Yesterday I did get hit with the D Harris rush attempts and Kamara receptions by .5 but a lot of my misses and hits on props have been oddly not close due to game script or whatever. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jerryskids 5,209 Posted September 21, 2021 took the Lions +11.5 and total o 49.5 Hoping for a close-ish cripple fight with lots of punches thrown but nobody hurt. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BeenHereBefore 1,336 Posted September 21, 2021 I have GB and over minus the points. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jerryskids 5,209 Posted September 21, 2021 2 hours ago, jerryskids said: took the Lions +11.5 and total o 49.5 Hoping for a close-ish cripple fight with lots of punches thrown but nobody hurt. 1-1, slight bleed. I broke my (recent) rule of trying to do odd number bets so I don't watch the bleed so obviously. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BeenHereBefore 1,336 Posted September 21, 2021 I'm good at the Prime Time games and had a real good record last year. What sucks is I'm not good at the NFL day games. This years Prime time games are mostly being the over like it was last year. This will change in a few weeks like it did last year and around week 5 and you will see a lot of under games after that. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JustinCharge 2,397 Posted September 21, 2021 So far this year, any game where both QBs have either 1. won an NFL MVP 2. Gone to a super bowl has gone over the total. Week 1: 49ers / Lions went over. Week 2: Falcons / Bucs, Chiefs / Ravens, & Lions / Packers all went over. Week 3 offers Ravens / Lions and Packers / 49ers. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fireballer 2,384 Posted September 21, 2021 I just locked in Tompa in an adjusted parlay at +3.5 and over 43.5 at +110. What am I missing here? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bostonlager 2,465 Posted September 21, 2021 1 hour ago, Fireballer said: I just locked in Tompa in an adjusted parlay at +3.5 and over 43.5 at +110. What am I missing here? I haven't taken a dive into this game yet, but a simulation site I use has the final score Bucs 26 Rams 28 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
listen2me 23 1,545 Posted September 21, 2021 Glad I didnt get to the window with the Jones over bet. I'd be upset. He got enough carries. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bostonlager 2,465 Posted September 21, 2021 1 minute ago, listen2me 23 said: Glad I didnt get to the window with the Jones over bet. I'd be upset. He got enough carries. Had you placed the bet and woke up this morning to see he had 4 TDs, you'd be thinking he had 150 or more on the ground. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
listen2me 23 1,545 Posted September 21, 2021 Wanting g to bet some Ryder Cup. Euro line dropped. That was and still is value but I'm not going to root for Euros. I am a HOV fan though and was looking at Hov top Euro point getter +700. And top 3 Euro point getter +175. Is it dumb to bet on a Ryder Cup rookie? I like his game for match play. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bostonlager 2,465 Posted September 21, 2021 Starting this week I'm going to track the record of blind betting all rushing unders and see what happens. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bostonlager 2,465 Posted September 21, 2021 1 minute ago, listen2me 23 said: Wanting g to bet some Ryder Cup. Euri line dropped. That was and still is value but I'm not going to root for Euros. I am a HOV fan though and was looking at Hov top Euro point getter +700. And top 3 Euro point getter +175. Is it dumb to bet on a Ryder Cup rookie? I like his game for match play. I thing Hov is a lock to play in all 5 sessions and has a legit shot at hitting either or both of those. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
listen2me 23 1,545 Posted September 21, 2021 Just now, bostonlager said: I thing Hov is a lock to play in all 5 sessions and has a legit shot at hitting either or both of those. I do believe bets like this with several options against eachorher you lose value. Kind of like those 6 shooters groups where you pick low man out of the 6. So those prices probably do mot reflect value. But yea I do like him this week and in general. Of course it depends a lot on how thr pairing fall. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tikigods 76 Posted September 21, 2021 of the Week Chiefs -6.5 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bostonlager 2,465 Posted September 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said: I do believe bets like this with several options against eachorher you lose value. Kind of like those 6 shooters groups where you pick low man out of the 6. So those prices probably do mot reflect value. But yea I do like him this week and in general. Of course it depends a lot on how thr pairing fall. Do you have the o/u bets on points available at your book? I like Hov over 2.5 points +150 especially if rumors that he will be paired with Rory and or Sergio this week are true. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
listen2me 23 1,545 Posted September 21, 2021 Just now, bostonlager said: Do you have the o/u bets on points available at your book? I like Hov over 2.5 points +150 especially if rumors that he will be paired with Rory and or Sergio this week. No. But I could see them putting those up in a day or 2. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bostonlager 2,465 Posted September 21, 2021 Hatton u 1.5 points +100 - Out of the 24 players participating, no one is hitting it shitttier than him right now. Bryson u 2.5 points -200 - I hate taking any bet at that price, but I guarantee he does not participate in either foursomes match meaning he would have to go 3-0. Not going to happen. Weisberger o 1.5 +165 - He has been playing sneaky good lately. Worth a roll of the dice. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fireballer 2,384 Posted September 21, 2021 2 hours ago, bostonlager said: Hatton u 1.5 points +100 - Out of the 24 players participating, no one is hitting it shitttier than him right now. Bryson u 2.5 points -200 - I hate taking any bet at that price, but I guarantee he does not participate in either foursomes match meaning he would have to go 3-0. Not going to happen. Weisberger o 1.5 +165 - He has been playing sneaky good lately. Worth a roll of the dice. I like the analysis. Hatton is 1-2 overall. I think of him as more of a source of energy than his actual play being a factor. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TimmySmith 2,782 Posted September 21, 2021 2 hours ago, tikigods said: of the Week Chiefs -6.5 Sounds like the square play of the week. Both teams could be 2-0 or 0-2, KCs defense is atrocious. I'll pass. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fireballer 2,384 Posted September 21, 2021 Another I dropped a few bucks on is Euros leading after day 1 +170. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jerryskids 5,209 Posted September 21, 2021 42 minutes ago, Fireballer said: Another I dropped a few bucks on is Euros leading after day 1 +170. Ooh, I like this. I'm struggling with my early gambling addiction: I just can't bet on the United States of America to lose yet. But they usually poop the bed in the unconventional matches the first two days, especially day 1. I can bet that and root for a comeback, which is usually the situation anyway. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jerryskids 5,209 Posted September 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, jerryskids said: Ooh, I like this. I'm struggling with my early gambling addiction: I just can't bet on the United States of America to lose yet. But they usually poop the bed in the unconventional matches the first two days, especially day 1. I can bet that and root for a comeback, which is usually the situation anyway. DK has Euros +185 each day in foursomes, the alternate ball format that the snotty Americans hate. I took them each day. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tikigods 76 Posted September 21, 2021 2 hours ago, TimmySmith said: Sounds like the square play of the week. Both teams could be 2-0 or 0-2, KCs defense is atrocious. I'll pass. KC will win that game by 10 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites