***Wagering thread***

[kilroy69 994]

This is what I have so far for just win loss. No over unders. Just picking who I think should win. +8849 Lets see how bad I can do. 

Chiefs over broncos

Falcons over Commanders

Bears over Vikes

Seahawks over the Bengals

San Fran over the browns

Dolphins over panthers,

Jags over Colts

Raiders over Pats

Det over Tampa Bay

Buffalo over Giants. 

[listen2me 23 1,542]

29 minutes ago, kilroy69 said:

Maybe this is why I need help. It does not make sense to me at all. I can not possibly imagine a scenario in which the browns can come close to being able to keep a 1 score game. Barring injury to both purdy and mccaffery. 

Many people who aren't straight casuals just get scared off a really public side.  Public doesn't win in the long run.  

I myself have a hard time running to the window to bet an ugly side.   As in a very bad team or a mediocre one going against an elite.   But if I know everyone and their mother is on SF I would usually just opt to not get involved in the game rather than go bet the Browns.  

That said I echo what Boston said.  Don't necessarily let us or anyone take you off a side you want to bet.   The books clean up some weeks.  The public cleans up some weeks.  The public just had a great week.  To me that says the books come back strong.  

[kilroy69 994]

1 minute ago, listen2me 23 said:

Many people who aren't straight casuals just get scared off a really public side.  Public doesn't win in the long run.  

I myself have a hard time running to the window to bet an ugly side.   As in a very bad team or a mediocre one going against an elite.   But if I know everyone and their mother is on SF I would usually just opt to not get involved in the game rather than go bet the Browns.  

That said I echo what Boston said.  Don't necessarily let us or anyone take you off a side you want to bet.   The books clean up some weeks.  The public cleans up some weeks.  The public just had a great week.  To me that says the books come back strong.  

This is the first year I have ever done any sports betting and it has been a learning curve. It has been fun. Not very profitable but it makes the games more entertaining to watch. I usually do pretty good in fantasy football so I figured I would try betting. I stink but I am trying to learn a little. I will be honest some of the words you guys use are like chinese to me and I had to look them up. 

[bostonlager 2,465]

@kilroy69 - read this. If you want to walk before you crawl - start here. I still play these every week while I'm doing my prop plays. 

https://www.covers.com/nfl/teaser-strategy

 

[kilroy69 994]

Just now, bostonlager said:

@kilroy69 - read this. If you want to walk before you crawl - start here. I still play these every week while I'm doing my prop plays. 

https://www.covers.com/nfl/teaser-strategy

 

Thank you

[bostonlager 2,465]

49 minutes ago, kilroy69 said:

This is what I have so far for just win loss. No over unders. Just picking who I think should win. +8849 Lets see how bad I can do. 

Chiefs over broncos

Falcons over Commanders

Bears over Vikes

Seahawks over the Bengals

San Fran over the browns

Dolphins over panthers,

Jags over Colts

Raiders over Pats

Det over Tampa Bay

Buffalo over Giants. 

This is great if you’re in a pick em pool at work. We aren’t going to use it much in here. One of the things you need to do with wagering is forget you know anything about football. We want to focus on numbers more than what happens between the sidelines. The most successful sports bettors never watched a game in their life. I’m on my phone right now but will expand on this thought later this evening. 

[BeenHereBefore 1,333]

Not to mention there is usually 2 upsets a week that the average football fan doesn't see coming. Like the Bills losing to the Jags last week.

[bostonlager 2,465]

2 hours ago, bostonlager said:

This is great if you’re in a pick em pool at work. We aren’t going to use it much in here. One of the things you need to do with wagering is forget you know anything about football. We want to focus on numbers more than what happens between the sidelines. The most successful sports bettors never watched a game in their life. I’m on my phone right now but will expand on this thought later this evening. 

Kilroy - I just placed a few bets for week 6 and I didn't care who the teams were, I was focused on the numbers. At bovada right now we have the following:

Bears +2.5

Texans +1.5

Redskins +2.5

Chargers +1.5

The two numbers we are worried about are 3 and 7 - the most common point differentials in all NFL football games going back to 1995 . If I tease the teams above by 6 points I am able to push past both of those numbers so I placed 6 - two team teasers. I don't care who they are playing or where they are playing. Road teams do usually do better and I usually leave out teams where the game has a total of 50 or more, but I took the Chargers anyways. They aren't going to hit every time, but they will be long run profitable. If you're serious and want to churn a profit you need to get into the mindset that this is a marathon, not a sprint. Ultimately, you want to get to props because picking side and totals on the NFL is a suckers game. Here are my numbers for this season so far. I'm a little disappointed I'm at 54, because I prefer to be around 60, but it is what it is and good luck finding someone that can beat me at props. (I did have a mentor that used to post here and he can smoke me, but thats beside the point). I'm arrogant about it and do apologize. Do some wonging and make some money and then we can dive into the prop process. 

Week 1: 11-7

Week 2: 7-14

Week 3: 20-11

Week 4:14-13

Week 5: 16-12

Season to date: 68-57 (.544)

[Fireballer 2,383]

Good stuff @bostonlager

[bostonlager 2,465]

Kilroy - That brings us to bankroll management. 2 rules

1. Learn self control - if you drink, bet the same way drunk as you would sober. If you can't, you will have to quit drinking or wagering. The reason for this is because you should NEVER CHASE. If you have a bad day, its a bad day and you get em tomorrow. Never get drunk and place all of your bankroll on some stupid -4000 moneyline to win back a few pennies. 

2. Each bet you place should be 1% of your bankroll. If you have $1000 and you take the 49ers -6 ... you're putting 10 bucks on them. This is much like playing poker. You will go card dead or have bad streaks. Keeping wagers at a smart level keeps you from going bust. 

[JustinCharge 2,397]

7 hours ago, kilroy69 said:

Maybe this is why I need help. It does not make sense to me at all. I can not possibly imagine a scenario in which the browns can come close to being able to keep a 1 score game. Barring injury to both purdy and mccaffery. 

Well for one thing teams arent consistent from game to game so there might be some regression in the 49ers after a big win.  Plus its on the road vs a really good defense.  Altho other people prefer to roll with a hot team instead. 

[BeenHereBefore 1,333]

11 minutes ago, JustinCharge said:

Well for one thing teams arent consistent from game to game so there might be some regression in the 49ers after a big win.  Plus its on the road vs a really good defense.  Altho other people prefer to roll with a hot team instead. 

Hot teams continue to win but yea have a down week after a big blowout. Browns sound good to me on the spread this week.

[BeenHereBefore 1,333]

2 hours ago, Fireballer said:

Good stuff @bostonlager

Agreed!

[kilroy69 994]

Does your opinion of the 49ers at -5.5  change if the  browns start PJ walker? 

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

Interested to hear everyones ML and ATS picks for week 6 (maybe not every pick, but best bets welcomed. I have a $5 free bet that expires tomorrow so I'm going to have to use it on a regular parlay since most player props won't be out yet. 

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

6 minutes ago, kilroy69 said:

Does your opinion of the 49ers at -5.5  change if the  browns start PJ walker? 

no.  San Fran -5.5 seems like a gift.  Anything can be a trap but this just seems no brainer. 

[BeachGuy23 512]

16 hours ago, bostonlager said:

Kilroy - I just placed a few bets for week 6 and I didn't care who the teams were, I was focused on the numbers. At bovada right now we have the following:

Bears +2.5

Texans +1.5

Redskins +2.5

Chargers +1.5

The two numbers we are worried about are 3 and 7 - the most common point differentials in all NFL football games going back to 1995 . If I tease the teams above by 6 points I am able to push past both of those numbers so I placed 6 - two team teasers. I don't care who they are playing or where they are playing. Road teams do usually do better and I usually leave out teams where the game has a total of 50 or more, but I took the Chargers anyways. They aren't going to hit every time, but they will be long run profitable. If you're serious and want to churn a profit you need to get into the mindset that this is a marathon, not a sprint. Ultimately, you want to get to props because picking side and totals on the NFL is a suckers game. Here are my numbers for this season so far. I'm a little disappointed I'm at 54, because I prefer to be around 60, but it is what it is and good luck finding someone that can beat me at props. (I did have a mentor that used to post here and he can smoke me, but thats beside the point). I'm arrogant about it and do apologize. Do some wonging and make some money and then we can dive into the prop process. 

Week 1: 11-7

Week 2: 7-14

Week 3: 20-11

Week 4:14-13

Week 5: 16-12

Season to date: 68-57 (.544)

Yes excellent stuff.

I prefer prop bets and O/U bets.

But your info is very interesting. 

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

plays I like at the moment

San Fran (anything under -7.5)

Chargers/Cowpokes over 50.5

Pats +3

Saints -1.5

Bengals -3

Vikings/Bears over 44.5

Falcons -2.5

Lions -3

Chiefs if I can get alternate -10

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Titans / Ravens is interesting.  feel like the Titans can keep it within 3, if not win outright. Probably stay away though. 

Can't bet on the Jets only getting 7, but won't bet against them either.

Giants game feels equally like it could be a blowout for the Bills or the Giants backdoor cover and lose by 10-13. 

 

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

19 hours ago, BeenHereBefore said:

Not to mention there is usually 2 upsets a week that the average football fan doesn't see coming. Like the Bills losing to the Jags last week.

I would disagree on that. Not saying I personally saw the Bill losing but at this point, London is a home game for Jacksonville and the Jags are a playoff quality team. That was a game I was never toughing for a number of reasons. 

you did say average football fan so maybe there is something to that. 

[bostonlager 2,465]

I hope we didn't scare kilroy off 

[JustinCharge 2,397]

Browns head coach kevin stefanski said today pj walker will start if deshaun watson cant go. 

[Baker Boy 1,485]

1 hour ago, WhiteWonder said:

I would disagree on that. Not saying I personally saw the Bill losing but at this point, London is a home game for Jacksonville and the Jags are a playoff quality team. That was a game I was never toughing for a number of reasons. 

you did say average football fan so maybe there is something to that. 

The Jags were in London for over a week which also gave them an advantage 

[kilroy69 994]

35 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

I hope we didn't scare kilroy off 

Nahhh. It is just a lot to take in. 

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

37 minutes ago, Baker Boy said:

The Jags were in London for over a week which also gave them an advantage 

Exactly 

[BeenHereBefore 1,333]

6 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

Exactly 

So they had extra time to enjoy their fish and chips ? Forget that game and there usually is 2 to 3 upsets a week. Some bigger then others.

[Fireballer 2,383]

Dodgers ML will prob be my biggest bet today.  I don’t see two 3-0 sweeps.  

[seafoam1 1,879]

I've had very good luck this NFL season so far  (up about $1000) but I am 85% sure posting my picks on this site will be the kiss of death for my bets this week. Whatever. 

 

Leaning the -10.5 for KC as their defense has been looking up. Careful of the U/O bets as there is supposed to be winds of up to 20mph tomorrow night.

I've already taken some Sunday games 

Miami -13.5 - What can you say? They are playing in Miami and Carolina is struggling on and off the field. Coaching seems to be exasperated with GM/owner? 

Washington on the ML +115 - I'm taking this one shot on Washington that their talented defense won't sleepwalk through the game like they did against the Bears. 

Chicago on the ML +135 - I like how their oline and Fields is playing. Hell, even their defensive line has been making plays. Cousins will get rid of the ball quick but to who? I won't even be upset if the Bears lose honestly. But I am just going with the momentum. 

Indi/Jax Over 45.5 - They scored 52 in week 1 playing each other and that game had 5 turnovers. Sloppy. Richardson is out but both these teams are looking good. I'll take the chance.

 

 

[Fireballer 2,383]

@kilroy69 just a couple of things to keep in mind. Like BL said, be careful with parlays.  There’s a reason Fanduel has a feature called the “Parlay Hub” and most books give multiple parlays odds boosts per day.  I do some parlays, but rarely over +200 odds and make them fit into my regular wagering picks. Also, as far as straight bets are concerned, at -110 or -115 odds, even the best bettors are correct less than 60% of the time long term. Long term profit and patience is a must.

[BeenHereBefore 1,333]

1 hour ago, seafoam1 said:

I've had very good luck this NFL season so far  (up about $1000) but I am 85% sure posting my picks on this site will be the kiss of death for my bets this week. Whatever. 

 

Leaning the -10.5 for KC as their defense has been looking up. Careful of the U/O bets as there is supposed to be winds of up to 20mph tomorrow night.

I've already taken some Sunday games 

Miami -13.5 - What can you say? They are playing in Miami and Carolina is struggling on and off the field. Coaching seems to be exasperated with GM/owner? 

Washington on the ML +115 - I'm taking this one shot on Washington that their talented defense won't sleepwalk through the game like they did against the Bears. 

Chicago on the ML +135 - I like how their oline and Fields is playing. Hell, even their defensive line has been making plays. Cousins will get rid of the ball quick but to who? I won't even be upset if the Bears lose honestly. But I am just going with the momentum. 

Indi/Jax Over 45.5 - They scored 52 in week 1 playing each other and that game had 5 turnovers. Sloppy. Richardson is out but both these teams are looking good. I'll take the chance.

 

 

I like the Wash money line and don't trust KC to cover big spreads and go burnt to much last year by them. Also know you are taking the under but like Indi and the points in that game.

[BeenHereBefore 1,333]

1 hour ago, Fireballer said:

Dodgers ML will prob be my biggest bet today.  I don’t see two 3-0 sweeps.  

O/U is 9.5 which probably means LA. will put up some points and am going to jump in on this one.

[Fireballer 2,383]

47 minutes ago, BeenHereBefore said:

I like the Wash money line and don't trust KC to cover big spreads 

Yes and yes.  NFL to me, is just a lot of catching good lines in situations like this.  Wash got drubbed by Bears, and Atl coming off a win against Hou, who has been a public darling the first 4 weeks.And Mahomes is underwhelming covering as a fav over 3.5.

[kilroy69 994]

I appreciate all of the tips you guys have provided. 

[bostonlager 2,465]

4 minutes ago, kilroy69 said:

I appreciate all of the tips you guys have provided. 

We all left out one major rule - Have fun. 

A few of us take this to a Dungeons and Dragons type nerd level. You don't have to do that. 

[bostonlager 2,465]

Denver at Kansas City 

Javonte Williams u 36.5 rushing

Kadarius Toney u 3.5 receptions

Jerry Jeudy o 4.5 receptions

 

[Baker Boy 1,485]

43 minutes ago, kilroy69 said:

I appreciate all of the tips you guys have provided. 

+1

[bostonlager 2,465]

Lance Lynn is a coin flip. Sometimes he sits guys down and other times he pitches to contact. Unless I missed something in the game log, AZ hasn't seen him this year. 

Lance Lynn o 3.5 K -145

[Fireballer 2,383]

Fuk.  Who knew Dan Marino was UTEPs 4th string QB?  Dude is 5/5 for 175 and 2TD in the first quarter. FIU ML is most likely dead. 

[Fireballer 2,383]

21 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

Lance Lynn is a coin flip. Sometimes he sits guys down and other times he pitches to contact. Unless I missed something in the game log, AZ hasn't seen him this year. 

Lance Lynn o 3.5 K -145

I have him 3+ as a leg in a free bonus bet. 

[seafoam1 1,879]

3 hours ago, BeenHereBefore said:

I like the Wash money line and don't trust KC to cover big spreads and go burnt to much last year by them. Also know you are taking the under but like Indi and the points in that game.

Yeah, I've bet all the games I've posted so far except the KC game. I'm leary of that myself.

[BeenHereBefore 1,333]

31 minutes ago, seafoam1 said:

Yeah, I've bet all the games I've posted so far except the KC game. I'm leary of that myself.

Yea last season they seem to not cover all most all big spreads.