***Wagering thread***

[bostonlager 2,463]

4 hours ago, BeenHereBefore said:

Oh well.

He recovered and got it to -3. We are still in it. 

[BeenHereBefore 1,332]

13 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

He recovered and got it to -3. We are still in it. 

Haha cool and FD offered me a $1 to cash out, so figure he wasn't done yet.

[Louie Kelcher 97]

I like KC and SF.  Was gonna go with a teaser but now KC is giving 1, so it would be SF +8.5 and KC +5.  Not ideal but I still like it.  Would also go with a ML parlay.  Feel stronger about SF than KC.

Also...

Hurts under 46.5 rushing yards

 

 

[BeenHereBefore 1,332]

2 hours ago, Louie Kelcher said:

I like KC and SF.  Was gonna go with a teaser but now KC is giving 1, so it would be SF +8.5 and KC +5.  Not ideal but I still like it.  Would also go with a ML parlay.  Feel stronger about SF than KC.

Also...

Hurts under 46.5 rushing yards

 

 

I like the Hurts under.

[bostonlager 2,463]

Looking at some SB props. 

First TV advert shown - Heineken -115 vs Budweiser -115. Seems lie free money. Doesn't Bud buy up a ton of ad time and go early and often?

[listen2me 23 1,542]

9 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

Looking at some SB props. 

First TV advert shown - Heineken -115 vs Budweiser -115. Seems lie free money. Doesn't Bud buy up a ton of ad time and go early and often?

You would think.  But the odds would have me leery.

[Fireballer 2,382]

Holy shat I just took the worst bad beat ever. I had Mich/OSU under 145.5.  While celebrating, MI travelled in the last few secs and gave OSU the ball to score and total went to 146.  FML

[BeenHereBefore 1,332]

7 minutes ago, Fireballer said:

Holy shat I just took the worst bad beat ever. I had Mich/OSU under 145.5.  While celebrating, MI travelled in the last few secs and gave OSU the ball to score and total went to 146.  FML

Wow that sucks.

[BeenHereBefore 1,332]

On 1/30/2023 at 10:51 AM, listen2me 23 said:

You would think.  But the odds would have me leery.

Not to mention somebody has got to be in the know of what ever add will air first. I'm sure they have these ready in what order they will air days ahead.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

Glad I have not been real betting that Greg’s spreadsheet nonsense. He’s been awful. Especially in over/unders. Every day the sheet is just unders for his top disparities 

 

Havnt had much luck with nba player prop parlays of late, I usually do one for the risk free FanDuel TNT promo and then when I lose I’ll use the free bet to do another the next night… 

finally hit a 5 leg tonight. Brunson 20+ pts, Ayton over 10.5 reb, Paul 8+ assists, Claxton over 10.5 reb and Cam Thomas over 23.5 points.

 has hit with the 4th quarter of the Suns / Nets still to go. Should have won a little more and just gone Paul over 9.5 assists instead of playing it safe with the 8+

[Fireballer 2,382]

45 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

Glad I have not been real betting that Greg’s spreadsheet nonsense. He’s been awful. Especially in over/unders. Every day the sheet is just unders for his top disparities 

 

 

I’ve wanted so bad for Greg to give a decent profit.  He hits over 50%, but not quite 53% where u need to be steady making profit. 

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

15 minutes ago, Fireballer said:

I’ve wanted so bad for Greg to give a decent profit.  He hits over 50%, but not quite 53% where u need to be steady making profit. 

Is that on every play or just his best disparity plays? I can’t imagine wagering them all but in the wager contest thing I’ve been getting killed playing a handful of his best bets

[Fireballer 2,382]

1 hour ago, WhiteWonder said:

Is that on every play or just his best disparity plays? I can’t imagine wagering them all but in the wager contest thing I’ve been getting killed playing a handful of his best bets

That’s all his plays.  He says he plays everyone of his plays.  I’ve extrapolated it out, and he was barely a loser last season by a few units

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

12 minutes ago, Fireballer said:

That’s all his plays.  He says he plays everyone of his plays.  I’ve extrapolated it out, and he was barely a loser last season by a few units

I’d be more interested in say his top 10 plays each day. Could be the top 10 between spread and total. 
 

doesn’t seem very impressive to be a loser over a full season. Maybe his higher confidence picks hit at a higher clip? But I doubt it. Seems like he’s just flipping a coin anyway 

[Fireballer 2,382]

25 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

I’d be more interested in say his top 10 plays each day. Could be the top 10 between spread and total. 
 

doesn’t seem very impressive to be a loser over a full season. Maybe his higher confidence picks hit at a higher clip? But I doubt it. Seems like he’s just flipping a coin anyway 

It’s not worth tailing his highest discrepancies either if I recall.  If you weren’t aware, there a guy on Twitter that makes a daily sheet with Greg’s top discrepancies vs Vegas lines. 

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

4 hours ago, Fireballer said:

It’s not worth tailing his highest discrepancies either if I recall.  If you weren’t aware, there a guy on Twitter that makes a daily sheet with Greg’s top discrepancies vs Vegas lines. 

Badger? He’s the one I follow. 

[Horseman 1,514]

On 1/30/2023 at 7:38 AM, bostonlager said:

Looking at some SB props. 

First TV advert shown - Heineken -115 vs Budweiser -115. Seems lie free money. Doesn't Bud buy up a ton of ad time and go early and often?

Remember when we used to have a community spreadsheet for SB props and everyone would post their reasoning?  Man the good old days. I havent done fok all this year. Maybe we get that going again. I'll start, well besides yours:  

Coin Flip Tails -102 because this game is asss.  Neither team should be there. Bengals are the best team, should have beaten the Kansas City Referees.  There would have been some good numbers for straight up betting.  

[Horseman 1,514]

Gatorade bath: Eagles are yellow and Cheifs are orange.  Take either or both at plus money. 

@bostonlager where are you seeing exotics at?  sb.ag doesnt have them yet.  

[Horseman 1,514]

If you like the Eagles who are a slight favorite:  Hurts as MVP is plus money +130 thatz flip flopped with Mahomies as the favorite. 

FML, having to bet on that, it's the +EV thing to do though. 

[Horseman 1,514]

If you're a Cheifs backer, or think it's going to be a competitive game (which I do) -270 gets you a TD plus the hook +7.5. 

[Horseman 1,514]

Travis Kelse rushing attempts or yards is a trap. Remember those shovel plays we are used to seeing are counted as receptions. 

[Horseman 1,514]

Harrison Buckner 1st kick off a touch back. Yes -200.  His TB is at 66%  

[Horseman 1,514]

Horseman number of tequilas take the over at 100%  We'll do this again manyannna. 

[bostonlager 2,463]

5 hours ago, Horseman said:

Gatorade bath: Eagles are yellow and Cheifs are orange.  Take either or both at plus money. 

@bostonlager where are you seeing exotics at?  sb.ag doesnt have them yet.  

I’m getting them at Bovada and remember the spreadsheet very well. It was a goldmine 

[Horseman 1,514]

Big sports weekend coming up.  Let's get UFC out of the way early:

Lookboonmee -280 Mullarkey -275 Crute -175 should all cruse through their matchups.

Looking for some dogs: Tafa hasn't done anything, at least Parker Porter has been around the block and can wrestle +105. Josh Emmitt +160 should be lined closer than that.

I don't have a good way to bet the main event, maybe Makhachev by submission and should win as the heavy favorite, but, it's Volkanovski man!  This fight is going to be foking awesome, can't wait!   

[Horseman 1,514]

Gatorade Orange +300

Lines are blue +180, yellow +180, orange +300, clear +800, purple +1500, red +1500

I have no idea where blue is coming from. Reid was doused with orange last time and Eagles were yellow.  

[Horseman 1,514]

Chris Stapleton hat not black -600. 

[Horseman 1,514]

First offensive play by Chiefs is a pass +125.  

Chiefs use quick toss as a run as much as anyone for plus money. 

[Horseman 1,514]

Chris Jones o0.5 sacks or will Chris Jones get a sack -yes around even money.

[Horseman 1,514]

Anybody see number of receptions for Ju-Ju?

[bostonlager 2,463]

2 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Anybody see number of receptions for Ju-Ju?

If you're on sb.ag they should have it o/u 3.5 on prop builder

[Horseman 1,514]

Rihana lipstick color: Clear/None +275.  I mean I'm almost positive it's a brown colored lipstick, but 95% of her photos doesnt have a color: red/pink, purple, blue, black.  She occasionally uses red/pink which is the favorite -300.  

[Horseman 1,514]

First TO is a fumble +170.  I think INT is a bit overbet as FUM/INT ratio is usually around 0.7.  

[Horseman 1,514]

5 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Rihana lipstick color: Clear/None +275.  I mean I'm almost positive it's a brown colored lipstick, but 95% of her photos doesnt have a color: red/pink, purple, blue, black.  She occasionally uses red/pink which is the favorite -300.  

Same with eyeshadow +100, except the shark move might be Purple +400 that she occasionally uses (it's hard to tell) and the prop at sportsbetting goes out if it's way to classify it as "light or dark"  

[Horseman 1,514]

Mahomie u290.5

Sanders o62.5

A Brown o5.5

Ju-Ju o3.5 

[BeenHereBefore 1,332]

22 hours ago, Horseman said:

Mahomie u290.5

Sanders o62.5

A Brown o5.5

Ju-Ju o3.5 

I took all but Mahomie.

[BeenHereBefore 1,332]

On 2/9/2023 at 3:25 PM, Horseman said:

Big sports weekend coming up.  Let's get UFC out of the way early:

Lookboonmee -280 Mullarkey -275 Crute -175 should all cruse through their matchups.

Looking for some dogs: Tafa hasn't done anything, at least Parker Porter has been around the block and can wrestle +105. Josh Emmitt +160 should be lined closer than that.

I don't have a good way to bet the main event, maybe Makhachev by submission and should win as the heavy favorite, but, it's Volkanovski man!  This fight is going to be foking awesome, can't wait!   

I need Crute for the 3 leg.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

Missed my nba parlay tonight but hit one last night, $10 to win $55. It was a lot of lower alternate points/ rebounds and some guys just to hit a single 3. All in the knicks/sixers game. Got a free $10 bet just for making the wager, win or lose, and missed out on another $10 free bet because the knicks hit 11 threes instead of 12. 
 

but overall the parlays have been hitting this week

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

The Gatorade prop is interesting to me. As it seems like one that can be easily manipulated. Ole Roger tells his pals to put a bunch of coin on clear, and then tells both teams he wants clear/water on the sidelines

[BeenHereBefore 1,332]

5 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

Missed my nba parlay tonight but hit one last night, $10 to win $55. It was a lot of lower alternate points/ rebounds and some guys just to hit a single 3. All in the knicks/sixers game. Got a free $10 bet just for making the wager, win or lose, and missed out on another $10 free bet because the knicks hit 11 threes instead of 12. 
 

but overall the parlays have been hitting this week

Good to hear and I'm sure you know FD is doing a $10 free for the SB.