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4 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

To put a cap on overreaction week, I'm taking Tennessee +10

Me too and majority will be for the Bills. Under sounds like a good bet as well.

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I think I said it in here or perhaps another thread....but I just wouldn't get in front of the Bills this year.  

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21 hours ago, bostonlager said:

Titans - Bills 

Derrick Henry u 11.5 receiving

Robert Woods u 40.5 receiving

Ryan Tannehill u 213.5 passing

Josh Allen o 22.5 completions

 

19 hours ago, bostonlager said:

Vikings - Eagles

Adam Thielen u 50.5 receiving

NFL Season - 41- 24 (.630)

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Steelers - Browns 

Diontae Johnson o 5.5 receptions

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1 minute ago, Alias Detective said:

20% juice.  Damn. 

I got it at -120

 

I like Najee o 2.5 and Friermuth o 3.5 as well, but both of those are -180. -140 is the absolute max I will go on these props. 

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55 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

I got it at -120

 

I like Najee o 2.5 and Friermuth o 3.5 as well, but both of those are -180. -140 is the absolute max I will go on these props. 

It’s crazy they make the vig so high instead of adding a catch.  Especially with Friermuth.

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57 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

I got it at -120

 

I like Najee o 2.5 and Friermuth o 3.5 as well, but both of those are -180. -140 is the absolute max I will go on these props. 

I played Randall Cobb over last week and hit.  I expect Rodgers will keep looking to the Vet in crucial situations.  What say you?

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1 minute ago, Alias Detective said:

I played Randall Cobb over last week and hit.  I expect Rodgers will keep looking to the Vet in crucial situations.  What say you?

My book doesn't have props listed for that game yet. Over 2.5 receptions, I will probably be on board. 3.5 or higher and I will probably pass. 

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3 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

My book doesn't have props listed for that game yet. Over 2.5 receptions, I will probably be on board. 3.5 or higher and I will probably pass. 

Over 2.5 +120 was the line last week.

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4 minutes ago, Alias Detective said:

Over 2.5 +120 was the line last week.

It comes down to targets - he only had 3 in week 1 without Lazard in the lineup. The thing with GB this year I worry about, is them spreading it around too much. I don't think I have played a prop yet involving the Packers. 

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Trubisky o 20.5 has hit the first two week and I am tempted to take it again, but haven't yet. Even though he is garbage, they dink and dunk for a ton of completions. The worry this week is Cleveland's reliance on the run game that could limit the number of possessions. I will likely lay off that this week in hopes he has 15-19 completions and lower his number to 19.5 for week 4. 

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1 hour ago, Alias Detective said:

I played Randall Cobb over last week and hit.  I expect Rodgers will keep looking to the Vet in crucial situations.  What say you?

Hard to say.  Yea he will lean on Cobb on like 3rd and 5s.  But so many guys in the WR room who all play and thr backs catch a good amount of balls.  

The thing about Cobb is I see several games of 1 or 2 catches.  And I see very few more than 3.  

Not sure on this TB game.  In theory it should be a low scoring grind.  So not sure how many times Rodgers throws it.  But at thr same time they have a nice pass rush so I can see Rodgers getting the ball out fast.  And he doesn't like to throw quick to the rookies.  

Lazard, sammy, watson, doubs may all out snap cobb most games.

2.5 per game for 17 games is 42 catches.  There is little chance he catches it 42 times unless injuries give him more opportunities. 

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Also in theory as the rookie get more experience they will gradually get more snaps.   Perhaps play cobb now and back off him as the rookies get more involved. 

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8 hours ago, listen2me 23 said:

Hard to say.  Yea he will lean on Cobb on like 3rd and 5s.  But so many guys in the WR room who all play and thr backs catch a good amount of balls.  

The thing about Cobb is I see several games of 1 or 2 catches.  And I see very few more than 3.  

Not sure on this TB game.  In theory it should be a low scoring grind.  So not sure how many times Rodgers throws it.  But at thr same time they have a nice pass rush so I can see Rodgers getting the ball out fast.  And he doesn't like to throw quick to the rookies.  

Lazard, sammy, watson, doubs may all out snap cobb most games.

2.5 per game for 17 games is 42 catches.  There is little chance he catches it 42 times unless injuries give him more opportunities. 

This is good analysis. At this point in the season I don’t trust betting over or under on any Packer player props until they show us some consistency. 

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10 hours ago, bostonlager said:

I got it at -120

 

I like Najee o 2.5 and Friermuth o 3.5 as well, but both of those are -180. -140 is the absolute max I will go on these props. 

In regards to this. Not only are books not offering receptions for college props this year, the NFL receptions and completions are always a half number. In years past it was not uncommon to see Najee o/u 3 with regular juice. I don't mind it on the completions, but the receptions sucks. 

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For what it is worth just passing it along since Cobb was discussed.   He didn't practice yesterday due to illness.  Not sure how sick.   Imagine he plays.

Sammy Lazard and Watson all showed up on the list as well with a limited tag. 

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I'm glad I didn't pay much attention to the NCAA slate tonight.  Coastal -2???  I may have dropped some inappropriate funds on this game. 

  • Haha 1

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On 9/21/2022 at 7:46 AM, bostonlager said:

Steelers - Browns 

Diontae Johnson o 5.5 receptions

NFL Season: 42-24

 

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Friday Night College

Virginia - Syracuse 

Brennan Armstrong o 241.5 passing 

Perris Jones u 47.5 rushing 

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10 hours ago, Fireballer said:

I'm glad I didn't pay much attention to the NCAA slate tonight.  Coastal -2???  I may have dropped some inappropriate funds on this game. 

Won by 17.

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On 9/18/2022 at 12:21 AM, Hawkeye21 said:

Nevada  +23.5  🤷🏻‍♂️

Iowa/Nevada  Under 38.5  🤷🏻‍♂️ 

Oklahoma  -10.5  💰 

Purdue  +1.5  ❌

California  +11.5  💰

Michigan St.  +3.5  ❌

 UTSA  +12.5  ❌

Went 3-4 last Saturday. Couldn’t place any bets on Sunday since I was in Wisconsin all week. Just got back home a bit ago and need to look at tomorrow’s slate of games yet. 

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With the amount of bets on Syracuse tonight I’m leaning towards Virginia +9.5

Took Syracuse under 31.5 total points. 

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Saturday - Early 

Baylor - Iowa State

Xavier Hutchinson u 89.5 receiving

Hunter Dekkers u 242.5 passing

Bowling Green - Mississippi State

Rufus Harvey u 62.5 receiving

Clemson - Wake Forest 

DJ Ulagalelei o 225.5 passing 

Duke - Kansas 

Jordan Moore u 50.5 receiving

Riley Leonard o 231.5 passing

Daniel Hishaw u 63.5 rushing

Devin Neal u 66.5 rushing

Maryland - Michigan 

Rakim Jarrett u 61.5 receiving

Ronnie Bell u 79.5 receiving

Roman Hemby u 53.5 rushing

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14 hours ago, Hawkeye21 said:

With the amount of bets on Syracuse tonight I’m leaning towards Virginia +9.5

Took Syracuse under 31.5 total points. 

Virginia  +9.5 💰 

Syracuse  u31.5 💰 

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Sunday 1:00

Bills - Dolphins

Tua Tagovailoa u 262.5 passing 

Josh Allen u 25.5 completions

Bengals - Jets

Joe Burrow o 23.5 completions

Joe Mixon u 75.5 rushing

Jamarr Chase o 5.5 receptions

Joe Mixon o 3.5 receptions

Tyler Boyd o 3.5 receptions

Elijah Moore u 4.5 receptions

Texans - Bears 

Brandon Cooks o 4.5 receptions

Equa St. Brown u 2.5 receptions

Chiefs - Colts

Matt Ryan u 247.5 passing 

Marquez Scantling u 3.5 receptions

JuJu Smith Schuster u 4.5 receptions

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You know props, I do not.  I guess I would have to look harder at the numbers but I like Allen to come out throwing and never stop.  If they get uo they don't want to let mia backdoor them.  If they get down they are slinging.  

Bills have a very banged up secondary.  It seems like in their system they can plug anyone in and have solid results.  But 3 starters are out with Poyer questionable.   Unless Tua is a big fraud it should be a high paced race for points.  

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I don't play a ton of college football especially this early in the season.    But they can't seem to set Iowa totals low enough.

Iowa Rutgers U 34

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38 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

You know props, I do not.  I guess I would have to look harder at the numbers but I like Allen to come out throwing and never stop.  If they get uo they don't want to let mia backdoor them.  If they get down they are slinging.  

Bills have a very banged up secondary.  It seems like in their system they can plug anyone in and have solid results.  But 3 starters are out with Poyer questionable.   Unless Tua is a big fraud it should be a high paced race for points.  

I’m struggling this year to find my footing. All books across the board have changed how they set the lines and juice compared to years past. I’m having to play some expensive juice that I normally wouldn’t and force some plays onto my card. Hopefully it pans out. 

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36 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

I don't play a ton of college football especially this early in the season.    But they can't seem to set Iowa totals low enough.

Iowa Rutgers U 34

I bet the under

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My picks for today as of now.

Rutgers  +8  ❌

Iowa/Rutgers  u33.5  ❌

Baylor  +2.5  💰 

Arkansas  +2.5  💰 

UNLV  -2.5  💰 

Kansas St.  +13.5.  💰 

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1 hour ago, bostonlager said:

I’m struggling this year to find my footing. All books across the board have changed how they set the lines and juice compared to years past. I’m having to play some expensive juice that I normally wouldn’t and force some plays onto my card. Hopefully it pans out. 

Yea the access and popularity sportsbooks have seen over the last few years certainly changed the market in many ways across all sports.

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1 hour ago, Hawkeye21 said:

I bet the under

I also don't mind Rutgers under 12.5 pts +100. Even as sort of a hedge for a 28-7 type blowout where Iowa finds a couple defensive/spts TDs.  

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On 9/23/2022 at 7:37 AM, bostonlager said:

Friday Night College

Virginia - Syracuse 

Brennan Armstrong o 241.5 passing 

Perris Jones u 47.5 rushing 

 

21 hours ago, bostonlager said:

Saturday - Early 

Baylor - Iowa State

Xavier Hutchinson u 89.5 receiving

Hunter Dekkers u 242.5 passing

Bowling Green - Mississippi State

Rufus Harvey u 62.5 receiving

Clemson - Wake Forest 

DJ Ulagalelei o 225.5 passing 

Duke - Kansas 

Jordan Moore u 50.5 receiving

Riley Leonard o 231.5 passing

Daniel Hishaw u 63.5 rushing

Devin Neal u 66.5 rushing

Maryland - Michigan 

Rakim Jarrett u 61.5 receiving

Ronnie Bell u 79.5 receiving

Roman Hemby u 53.5 rushing

Friday: 0 - 2

Saturday: 9 - 2

College Season: 56 - 45

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The rest of 1:00

Raiders - Titans

Derek Carr o 23.5 completions

Austin Hooper o 2.5 receptions

Derrick Henry u 7.5 receiving

Darren Waller o 4.5 receptions

Saints - Panthers

Jameis Winston u 220.5 passing

Alvin Kamara u 51.5 rushing

Jarvis Landry o 3.5 receptions

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