easilyscan 855 Posted April 9 5 minutes ago, Beaker15 said: Trump is going to meet with Bassent Thanks! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Beaker15 233 Posted April 9 90 day pause of Tariffs execpt for China Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gepetto 1,285 Posted April 9 44 minutes ago, Alias Detective said: Ok bond guy for the past 3 years waiting for this day. Not true. I was in large cap mutual funds for a good portion of the last 3 years and made substantial profits. I went back and forth between mutual funds and bonds about three times in the last three years. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
easilyscan 855 Posted April 9 6 hours ago, Gepetto said: I don't think The Psychic Observer deserved a laugh emoji at all on that. This website should show who is responding with each emoji; it's possible on message boards. Hiding behind an anonymous laugh emoji when it's not even funny, so sad It is kind of silly, but still not as bad as other comment sections/forums around the web. On Yahoo finance for instance, you can see who gave you a thumbs up, but not those who gave you a thumbs down. Or the Minneapolis star tribune newspaper. There's only one opinion available, a thumbs up. I suppose it's a sign of the Times. Too many oversensitive soy boys and girls out there. As for the markets upside eruption this afternoon, in my humble opinion, it was a little overdone & I was selling out of the money covered calls as fast as I could after it happened. Delta Airlines for instance. Earlier in the day they were already whining how the tariffs would affect earnings, yet it ended the day up over 24% 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Horseman 2,353 Posted April 9 6 hours ago, The Psychic Observer said: By correctly going cash before "Liberation Day" I saved 10% in losses. I'm back in now albeit with less risk but if negotiations look unlikely I might make more moves before we hit the bottom. Has nothing to do with Trump personally just his policies. I made similar moves in 2022 when Biden was in office and it worked out well. And just like that, dow up 8% and tech surging 12% you just missed out on 10% versus a well graded portfolio. Maybe you learned your timing the market lesson this time? Doubt it. PSYCHIC INVESTING 0-4 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Horseman 2,353 Posted April 9 4 hours ago, Alias Detective said: Till when market timer? Bwahahahhahaah Until 5 minutes after he posted that garbage. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Psychic Observer 495 Posted April 9 5 minutes ago, Horseman said: And just like that, dow up 8% and tech surging 12% you just missed out on 10% versus a well graded portfolio. Maybe you learned your timing the market lesson this time? Doubt it. PSYCHIC INVESTING 0-4 You must have missed where I stated I am long. I didn't miss out. I'm still up YTD where the market is down. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Horseman 2,353 Posted April 9 5 minutes ago, The Psychic Observer said: You must have missed where I stated I am long. I didn't miss out. I'm still up YTD where the market is down. Like I said, doubt it. You went all cash then dipped back in some with defence equities and bonds. Your words. That 10% you claimed got wiped off the board this afternoon. The other thing about timing the market is the fact that historically down turns are short lived and larger gains numerous. Any time out of the market statistically puts you at bad risk of missing an upturn. You're the posterboy for that today. I'll dig the statistics up that prove that fact for you if you wish. You're way better off to have a safer allocation including bonds to ease any downturn than you are jumping in and out of the mmarket. Again, hope that helps, but I doubt it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
seafoam1 2,797 Posted April 9 16 minutes ago, The Psychic Observer said: You must have missed where I stated I am long. I didn't miss out. I'm still up YTD where the market is down. So everyone in the country had the ability to be "smart" like you and be "up YTD" and you spent the last month whining about the economy. Jeez. What a focking TDS controlled idiot. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Psychic Observer 495 Posted April 9 12 minutes ago, Horseman said: hope that helps, but I doubt it. Finally right about something. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Horseman 2,353 Posted April 9 1 minute ago, The Psychic Observer said: Finally right about something. Some people are their own worst enemy. That's you posterboy. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
seafoam1 2,797 Posted April 9 33 minutes ago, The Psychic Observer said: You must have missed where I stated I am long. I didn't miss out. I'm still up YTD where the market is down. Tell us about how you are up YTD but you are preaching that the the rest of the country is suffering. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Horseman 2,353 Posted April 9 1 hour ago, Horseman said: Like I said, doubt it. You went all cash then dipped back in some with defence equities and bonds. Your words. That 10% you claimed got wiped off the board this afternoon. The other thing about timing the market is the fact that historically down turns are short lived and larger gains numerous. Any time out of the market statistically puts you at bad risk of missing an upturn. You're the posterboy for that today. I'll dig the statistics up that prove that fact for you if you wish. You're way better off to have a safer allocation including bonds to ease any downturn than you are jumping in and out of the mmarket. Again, hope that helps, but I doubt it. The ups and downs are both happening a lot quicker with trading available on everyone's smart phone but I think the rule still applies. A bull market is 150% longer than a bear. https://ibb.co/xqTznTYH If you miss just a few upturns in a 30 year period you come out worse than just staying in the market. https://ibb.co/rKfV3gNZ Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Horseman 2,353 Posted April 9 Another way to look at it is to plot out the S&P, or whatever, for 30 years and circle the bears. You'll see visually they make up a very small fraction of time compared to 30 years. The sheer statistics of being able to time those and not miss out on the upturn is a fool's errand. Psychic Investing was a perfect example. He was proud as punch to go all cash when the market went down 10% over a week. That was completely erased in a single afternoon. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WhiteWonder 2,674 Posted April 9 There are not all that many opportunities like this one to get into the market or add to your positions at gigantic discounts. We had one at the very start of Covid and prior to that, the great financial crisis in 08. Hope everyone is taking advantage 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tebok 282 Posted April 10 It's the bond market that's a huge problem. https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/09/politics/trump-tariffs-retreat-bond-market/index.html Quote By Wednesday, however, it had become evident the campaign to convince Trump to change course would not let up. It had also become plain after a sharp sell-off in US government bond markets — usually a safe corner for investors — that the economic ramifications of the president’s strategy were potentially catastrophic and worse than his advisers had previously predicted. The growing alarm inside the Treasury Department over developments in the bond market was a central factor in Trump’s decision to hit pause on his “reciprocal” tariff regime, according to three people familiar with the matter. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jbycho 577 Posted April 10 3 minutes ago, Tebok said: It's the bond market that's a huge problem. https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/09/politics/trump-tariffs-retreat-bond-market/index.html You liberals ALWAYS have a huge problem. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tebok 282 Posted April 10 6 minutes ago, jbycho said: You liberals ALWAYS have a huge problem. I'm not a liberal. I've voted Republican in every election since before you were a gooey thing running down your mother's leg. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
HellToupee 1,582 Posted April 10 5 minutes ago, Tebok said: I'm not a liberal. I've voted Republican in every election since before you were a gooey thing running down your mother's leg. This is a Schochetism 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jbycho 577 Posted April 10 8 minutes ago, Tebok said: I'm not a liberal. I've voted Republican in every election since before you were a gooey thing running down your mother's leg. Poor Rusty always brings the same fake message. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tebok 282 Posted April 10 3 minutes ago, jbycho said: Poor Rusty always brings the same fake message. RDS. Going off to use the ignore feature for the first time. You're too childish and annoying to live. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jbycho 577 Posted April 10 2 minutes ago, Tebok said: Going off to use the ignore feature for the first time. oh no. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Horseman 2,353 Posted April 10 How would we ever survive without Rusty bringing us the latest CNN hot take or the latest thing to pop up on his yahoo home page? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tebok 282 Posted April 10 1 minute ago, Horseman said: How would we ever survive without Rusty bringing us the latest CNN hot take or the latest thing to pop up on his yahoo home page? Tell us again how awesome your life is in retirement. https://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/profile/203496-horseman/ Content count: 10,906. Joined: April 21, 2020. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Horseman 2,353 Posted April 10 Just now, Tebok said: Tell us again how awesome your life is in retirement. https://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/profile/203496-horseman/ Content count: 10,906. Joined: April 21, 2020. 100 times better than yours since I don't have to switch to a new handle every few months. Why does a grown ass man keep making accounts at a place he's clearly not welcome? 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jbycho 577 Posted April 10 5 minutes ago, Horseman said: 100 times better than yours since I don't have to switch to a new handle every few months. Why does a grown ass man keep making accounts at a place he's clearly not welcome? For Rusty to bring that up is just hilarious. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tebok 282 Posted April 10 10 minutes ago, Horseman said: 100 times better than yours since I don't have to switch to a new handle every few months. Why does a grown ass man keep making accounts at a place he's clearly not welcome? I joined here in 2005, Capt. Calendar. You're only two decades off of present-tense usage. Why do you spend all day at a lightly trafficked message board when you've supposedly got a hot wife, all the money in the world and all fat and happy in retirement? Take your wife out to dinner or something. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Horseman 2,353 Posted April 10 9 minutes ago, Tebok said: I joined here in 2005, Capt. Calendar. You're only two decades off of present-tense usage. Why do you spend all day at a lightly trafficked message board when you've supposedly got a hot wife, all the money in the world and all fat and happy in retirement? Take your wife out to dinner or something. The same time you made a bunch of aliases, remember? Quote It's a double standard for sure, and I've got plenty of other handles to use if and when I feel like it. Let's do the math shall we? Today I have 15 posts, you have 8. Neither is "spending all day at a lightly trafficked message board" but you hit the nail on the head - you have to work all day. The difference is I've spent all day with my wife whereas for you now is the time you should be spending time with fatty, and your downs kid, and your 25 cats. 2 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Psychic Observer 495 Posted April 10 Futures tanking again. This was not victory. We're still very much in trouble. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Psychic Observer 495 Posted April 10 AND it's gone. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Horseman 2,353 Posted April 10 If you've put yourself in a position where you're hoping for the market to come down you're doing it wrong. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
HTH 93 Posted April 15 I'm still all in the Money Market. Should I get back in? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hardcore troubadour 14,903 Posted April 16 Well, we’re waiting. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Psychic Observer 495 Posted April 16 Powell: The level of tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated, and the same is likely to be true of the economic effects which will include higher inflation and slower growth. Market tanks. Dow -600 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cdub100 3,824 Posted April 16 On 4/15/2025 at 10:54 AM, HTH said: I'm still all in the Money Market. Should I get back in? No 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Psychic Observer 495 Posted April 16 At least the 10y rate is dropping as it should. Normal sell off. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Psychic Observer 495 Posted April 17 More Red. Trump's Stock Market. 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
easilyscan 855 Posted April 17 At least for today, happiness is having a huge position in Eli Lilly, & no position in United Healthcare. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
easilyscan 855 Posted April 21 Stocks I Like. Goes without saying to do your own research. Crocs: (CROX) Never a fan of their footwear, but they seem to have a cult like following. I've held a modest amount in an IRA for about 4.5 years & I started accumulating shares in my taxable & HSA accounts under $110 I like to look at the 3 most basic fundamentals 1st. Top line: revenues - Bottom line: EPS - Net profit margin's Revenues look great, although the year over year growth has slowed the last 7 quarters. https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/CROX/crocs/revenue EPS looks great as well, with one caveat that I'll get back to you later. https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/CROX/crocs/eps-earnings-per-share-diluted Margins are down from the all-time high of 35% mid 2021 (the zero interest rate go go days) but at 23%, still very impressive. https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/CROX/crocs/profit-margins Debt to equity ratio, price/sales, etc. look very reasonable *Caveat* Q-4 2024 EPS was $6.25. The previous quarterly high was $4.93 in Q2 2021. I figured that had to be inflated by a one time gain of some kind, so I'll bump that down to $4.25 which would bring the TTM EPS down to $13.88. Divide that by the current share price of $90.72 & you come up with a multiple of 6.42 A Google search (will crocs be negatively impacted by the new tariffs) confirmed my suspicions as to why it's selling at such a low multiple. Yes, Crocs is likely to be negatively impacted by the new tariffs. This is partly because Crocs produces a significant portion of its products in countries like Vietnam, which are subject to higher tariff rates. Additionally, Crocs has warned staff to closely manage expenses & has adjusted internal incentive plans due to the volatility caused by the tariffs. Take the worst case scenario, & say profits drop by a full 25% for 2025 $13.88 Minus 25% = $10.41 Divide this by the current share price & it would still only be selling at 8.60 x earnings. Thoughts ? 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
