Stock Market bubble - will crash

[avoiding injuries 1,636]

New all-time high. It might be time for the Geeks who sold to get back in. 

[nobody 2,765]

3 hours ago, Cdub100 said:

I asked Grok to look at every rate cut since 200 and look if the S&P 500 went up or down after 30 days.

 

Since 2000, the S&P 500 decreased in the 30 days following rate cuts in 2001, 2007, and 2008 (recessionary periods) and increased in 2019 and 2024 (non-recessionary periods). The outcome heavily depends on whether the economy is in a recession, with non-recessionary cuts favoring gains. If you’d like a deeper dive into specific dates or more granular data, let me know.

 

Looking at the results I don't think either of us are correct. I don't think it's as simple as a rate cut determins if the price goes up or down. Other Economic factors take a major toll and are much more important than the cut itself 

Wait.  You're trying to trade around rate cuts?  Disregard what I said.  I wouldn't have confidence in market movements over any 30 day period even after a catalyst.  

In general, if everyone is talking about investing (ie. Not short term trading), you should specify that you're talking short term.

[Gepetto 1,409]

 

[easilyscan 968]

1 hour ago, avoiding injuries said:

New all-time high. It might be time for the Geeks who sold to get back in. 

Buy high, sell low, is the only way 2 go

 

[seafoam1 3,243]

I'm up $85k this calendar year alone in one of my accounts. This has been a stellar year all around other than the liberal violent murderers in this country. 

[thegeneral 3,390]

18 minutes ago, seafoam1 said:

I'm up $85k this calendar year alone in one of my accounts. This has been a stellar year all around other than the liberal violent murderers in this country. 

That’s all! Yikes…

[Ron_Artest 1,841]

2 hours ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

If Gutterboy keeps doing his rain dance, eventually it will rain and he will claim victory. Book it. 

I never called for a market crash dummy.  I still don't.  Eventually it will crash but I can't tell you when.  We're approaching euphoria phase at the same time the economic numbers are flashing red, but this could last months or even years.

[thegeneral 3,390]

One person who called for a market crash so he wouldn’t look bad…One DJT

He’s all class

[Horseman 2,674]

32 minutes ago, Ron_Artest said:

I never called for a market crash dummy.  I still don't.  Eventually it will crash but I can't tell you when.  We're approaching euphoria phase at the same time the economic numbers are flashing red, but this could last months or even years.

Liar

On 5/2/2025 at 4:19 PM, Ron_Artest said:

This is your last chance to get out before it's too late.

Cue the simpleton semantics game.  

[Ron_Artest 1,841]

On 5/2/2025 at 4:19 PM, Ron_Artest said:

This is your last chance to get out before it's too late.

Unless the old fück caves again, we're still in trouble

Quote the whole thing.

Idiot.

Update, he caved again.

[Horseman 2,674]

6 minutes ago, Ron_Artest said:

Quote the whole thing.

Idiot.

Update, he caved again.

No more tariffs huh?  First I heard. Why is everyone crying about them then?  Like you dozens of since you told everyone this was your last chance. Example:

You're a cake and eat it to weakling poster, just like Tim. 

But keep posting, every time you skyscream it just keeps going UP.  

 

[Ron_Artest 1,841]

5 minutes ago, Horseman said:

No more tariffs huh?  First I heard. Why is everyone crying about them then?  Like you dozens of since you told everyone this was your last chance. Example:

You're a cake and eat it to weakling poster, just like Tim. 

But keep posting, every time you skyscream it just keeps going UP.  

 

Who said no more tariffs?  He caved from the insane tariffs.  Now we're at plain stupid tariffs.  But rate cut coming to provide relief.  Jesus do you even follow this Sh1t or do you not understand?

[Horseman 2,674]

22 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Cue the simpleton semantics game.  

Nailed it.

I meant the insane tariffs not the stupid ones!

[Ron_Artest 1,841]

4 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Nailed it.

I meant the insane tariffs not the stupid ones!

Bro thinks a 140% tariff is the same as a 20% tariff.

SEMANTICS

[Horseman 2,674]

2 minutes ago, Ron_Artest said:

Bro thinks a 140% tariff is the same as a 20% tariff.

SEMANTICS

Bro thought they weren't negotiable.  

Bro always pays full price at the swap meet. 

Last Chance!!!!!!!!!!!

[Ron_Artest 1,841]

13 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Bro thought they weren't negotiable.  

Bro always pays full price at the swap meet. 

Last Chance!!!!!!!!!!!

Unless the old fück caves again

Bro can't read

[Horseman 2,674]

Just now, Ron_Artest said:

Unless the old fück caves again

Bro can't read

Cake and eat it too poster. Just like Tim. 

Intellectually dishonest and signs of mild retardation. 

[seafoam1 3,243]

I guess all said and done, Trump is kicking ass!!! 

Life is good. 

[WhiteWonder 2,855]

Since this time last year, as we were ramping up to the election…

401k +10%
IRA +80%   
Trading Acct +400%

[Horseman 2,674]

38 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

Since this time last year, as we were ramping up to the election…

401k +10%
IRA +80%   
Trading Acct +400%

But the stupid tariffs!?!?! 

[Cdub100 3,978]

13 hours ago, nobody said:

Wait.  You're trying to trade around rate cuts?  Disregard what I said.  I wouldn't have confidence in market movements over any 30 day period even after a catalyst.  

In general, if everyone is talking about investing (ie. Not short term trading), you should specify that you're talking short term.

No I'm not trying to trade around rate cuts. 

[nobody 2,765]

5 hours ago, Cdub100 said:

No I'm not trying to trade around rate cuts. 

Then why the fock does what happens in the 30 days after the cuts even matter?

By the way, in the short term (30 days), the market will be driven by if the cuts are larger or smaller than what is expected.  If the cut is larger than expected, markets will fly.  If the cut is smaller than expected, markets will get hit.  

[Cdub100 3,978]

37 minutes ago, nobody said:

Then why the fock does what happens in the 30 days after the cuts even matter?

By the way, in the short term (30 days), the market will be driven by if the cuts are larger or smaller than what is expected.  If the cut is larger than expected, markets will fly.  If the cut is smaller than expected, markets will get hit.  

Because we are talking about rate cuts and what the market does. Some people say trade or swing trade. Im a buy and hold guy so if I think the market is going to drop like I did earlier this year I will take money out like I did in Feb/mar and when I'm ready I go back in. Like I did in april. 

Not sure why decided in insert yourself into someone else conversation especially when your first thought was wrong 

[nobody 2,765]

It's a public board.  It's all our conversation.  You clearly just don't know what you're talking about.  

Again... what the actual fock does a move in the 30 days actually matter to a buy and hold guy?

[Alias Detective 1,433]

Is this thread on par with the massive incoming inflation thread started a dozen years ago?

[Alias Detective 1,433]

15 minutes ago, nobody said:

It's a public board.  It's all our conversation.  You clearly just don't know what you're talking about.  

Again... what the actual fock does a move in the 30 days actually matter to a buy and hold guy?

So he can buy a few percent lower sorta kinda maybe.

[Gepetto 1,409]

1 hour ago, Alias Detective said:

Is this thread on par with the massive incoming inflation thread started a dozen years ago?

I predicted a crash when I started this thread and again later on. Both occurred immediately after my predictions. People just keep the thread going. The title of the thread is not applicable this year.

[Alias Detective 1,433]

27 minutes ago, Gepetto said:

I predicted a crash when I started this thread and again later on. Both occurred immediately after my predictions. People just keep the thread going. The title of the thread is not applicable this year.

You didn’t predict shlt.  You cried the sky was falling and moved to bonds and have been slaughtered ever since.

[Gepetto 1,409]

1 hour ago, Alias Detective said:

You didn’t predict shlt.  You cried the sky was falling and moved to bonds and have been slaughtered ever since.

I moved briefly to bonds at just the right time (twice) and back into the market where I've been ever since. Look at the date of my posts. Or don't, but don't be incorrect about what you write about what I said and what I did and when I did it.

[Alias Detective 1,433]

18 minutes ago, Gepetto said:

I moved briefly to bonds at just the right time (twice) and back into the market where I've been ever since. Look at the date of my posts. Or don't, but don't be incorrect about what you write about what I said and what I did and when I did it.

Prove it to me.  I’m calling you out.  

[Gepetto 1,409]

2 minutes ago, Alias Detective said:

Prove it to me.  I’m calling you out.  

You made the statement against me first. You prove it.

[lickin_starfish 1,968]

Settle down, boys. We're all in this rigged system together, and we should be helping each other instead of fighting.

[Cdub100 3,978]

5 hours ago, nobody said:

It's a public board.  It's all our conversation.  You clearly just don't know what you're talking about.  

Again... what the actual fock does a move in the 30 days actually matter to a buy and hold guy?

If I believed the market was going to have a sharp correction down after a rate drop (one that I expected in July), why would I be buying now? As a buy-and-hold guy, I would wait for the correction to get the stock cheaper. Is that so hard to figure out?

I also don't know why you're being so hostile in a stock thread. It makes you look like a moron.

[easilyscan 968]

21 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

Since this time last year, as we were ramping up to the election…

401k +10%
IRA +80%   
Trading Acct +400%

You should start a hedge fund.

[WhiteWonder 2,855]

10 minutes ago, easilyscan said:

You should start a hedge fund.

.  It’s a long time hobby. To be fair, the trading account isn’t up 400% overall, just in the past 1Y. It was down a bit before that as it struggled to recover from the shiit show that was second half of 2021 and all of 22. Started getting back on track in 23 but first half of 24 was a step backwards 

[nobody 2,765]

16 hours ago, Cdub100 said:

If I believed the market was going to have a sharp correction down after a rate drop (one that I expected in July), why would I be buying now? As a buy-and-hold guy, I would wait for the correction to get the stock cheaper. Is that so hard to figure out?

I also don't know why you're being so hostile in a stock thread. It makes you look like a moron.

You keep adding more and more context. So you have a bunch of cash on the sidelines?  Sorry to hear that.  

Let's fast forward this.  Here's where you say you don't have cash and you didn't miss the move up. Then I'm going to ask how you would be buying if you don't have cash.  You'll say some BS about how you were going to sell something then we're back to you trading around the rate cuts which you claimed you weren't doing, are we not?  Can we just skip that... Maybe you can make up something else?

[Horseman 2,674]

17 hours ago, Cdub100 said:

If I believed the market was going to have a sharp correction down after a rate drop (one that I expected in July), why would I be buying now? As a buy-and-hold guy, I would wait for the correction to get the stock cheaper. Is that so hard to figure out?

I also don't know why you're being so hostile in a stock thread. It makes you look like a moron.

Because statistically you'd be better off DCA'ing in instead of trying to time the market that may never get back to the correction level you're predicting.  

I've posted the numbers before, but sitting on the sidelines for even a short amount of time virtually guarantees you miss out on several highs.  I mean how many all time highs have you missed out on in the past few months. You cant get that lost money back.  

[easilyscan 968]

19 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

.  It’s a long time hobby. To be fair, the trading account isn’t up 400% overall, just in the past 1Y. It was down a bit before that as it struggled to recover from the shiit show that was second half of 2021 and all of 22. Started getting back on track in 23 but first half of 24 was a step backwards 

2025 hasn't exactly been a picnic either. Late last year I decided to move my Vanguard 401(k) to Fidelity (rollover IRA)

I decided to do buy/writes exclusively. Buy the underlying shares & sell out of the money calls @ the same time. April was downright nauseating.

https://www.imagebam.com/view/ME15YIDI

[Cdub100 3,978]

5 hours ago, Horseman said:

Because statistically you'd be better off DCA'ing in instead of trying to time the market that may never get back to the correction level you're predicting.  

I've posted the numbers before, but sitting on the sidelines for even a short amount of time virtually guarantees you miss out on several highs.  I mean how many all time highs have you missed out on in the past few months. You cant get that lost money back.  

Zero because I do dca. I also have a little on the side for big dips.

Just to be clear I was having a conversation about the market after a rate cut. The other jumped being an ahole about why a buy and hold guy would care. I explain why a someone would care and now you're jumping in about dcaing.

I post my winners and losers here. I don't pretend I win every trade like most people do here.

I buy Bitcoin every Wednesday. I auto contribute to my ira and Roth IRA every two weeks. I auto contribute and buy into my HSA every two weeks. So yes I do DCA

I'm currently building a high yield dividend portfolio for cash flow. 

I also have another account I play trade with. 

 

I like to read what other people are doing and thinking in this thread. But sometimes... Dang y'all make it hard 

[WhiteWonder 2,855]

1 hour ago, easilyscan said:

2025 hasn't exactly been a picnic either. Late last year I decided to move my Vanguard 401(k) to Fidelity (rollover IRA)

I decided to do buy/writes exclusively. Buy the underlying shares & sell out of the money calls @ the same time. April was downright nauseating.

https://www.imagebam.com/view/ME15YIDI

I just buy and sell, I don’t mess with options or anything. I’ll do short term trades if a stock I already like is oversold and I have no issue selling 2 days after buying if it pops 10%. I’ll hold some things I like longer term like Fnma currently. I’ve traded AMD so many times since it was $12 I’ve lost count. Roku. Recently bought a bunch of United Health in my IRA around $275. Decent dividend for a stock with 100%+ upside. 

so for me, a lot of work was done about a month before the election and through February. April sucked but the rebound was quick and back to Jan levels and since then it’s just gone higher. 

idc who is in office but nothing I own is really down since they dropped biden like a bad habit. A few are a little stagnant but it’s really hard to complain.

any of the older people on the board complaining that the sky is falling tariff market drop cost them so much (that they have not recovered) probably need to hire new wealth managers. And younger people with more risk tolerant portfolios would have to have some very bad stock picks.