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makindollaz

The guy I’m most interested to see in the 2022 rankings is…

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1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

This isn't exactly true.  In 2019, Godwin was WR2 and Evans was WR3 though the first 12 weeks... Evans got hurt in Week 13.  Despite missing 2 games, Godwin still finished that season as WR2... Evans ended up as WR15.  In any dog, Godwin was #2 and Evans was #5.

Last year, prior to getting hurt in Week 15, Godwin was WR6 and Evans was WR11.

Godwin is a WR1 when healthy.  That's why I say you're not "exactly" right.  It's because he hasn't always been able to stay healthy.  But, he is a WR1, when he is.

the best thing about drafting these guys is that AB is gone.  

More targets all around.   I'd expect a better year for both of these guys (provided they stay healthy)

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R Gage as a very nice adp

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15 hours ago, Ray_T said:

the best thing about drafting these guys is that AB is gone.  

More targets all around.   I'd expect a better year for both of these guys (provided they stay healthy)

Well, they did bring in Russel Gage to replace Brown.  I could definitely see him cutting into Evans and Godwin's production.  Though, not as much as Brown.  If Gage wasn't there, I could see both Evans and Godwin as top 5 WR's, but with him there, I see both as low end WR1's.

Tampa's going to throw the ball around 700 times for around 5k yards (again).  You'd have assume that Brady is going to complete at least 65% of those passes, so you're looking at 455 completions among Godwin, Evans, & Gage as being the primary recipients.  Until Gronk comes back (if he even does), there's chance that no one else has more than 35 receptions.  I can see Godwin at 110, Evans at 85, Gage at 60 and the other 200 spread among a bunch of other guys like Brate, Otton, Miller, Perriman, Johnson, Grayson, White, & Fournette.

Godwin is a guy that I can see posting a 110/1350/7 season and Evans posting an 85/1150/13 season, putting both of them in the 270 to 290 range.  Last year, that would've put them inside the top 10.

That's assuming health.  Last year, Godwin posted a 98/1103/5 season in 14 games.  He finished as WR15.  Of WR's who played at least 13 games, he was WR7 in average points per week.  To think he can't be WR1 is a bit naive.

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If you add in A Brown, based on avg per game , all three where top ten WRs in 1/2 ppr. 

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1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Until Gronk comes back (if he even does), there's chance that no one else has more than 35 receptions. 

Fournette had 69 (dude!), receptions last year I'll take the over 35 on him all day long.

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14 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Fournette had 69 (dude!), receptions last year I'll take the over 35 on him all day long.

They drafted Raschaad White for a reason.  It's not his rushing ability, that's for sure.

Could Fournette get 50?  Sure.  But I don't think that's Tampa's plan.  They don't have another runner like Jones who can take the pressure off of Fournette.  I think they take that pressure off him by distributing more passes throughout other RB's.  As the off-season progresses, we'll see how things shape up.  It's possible that every other RB sucks and Fournette ends up with 80.

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6 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

They drafted Raschaad White for a reason.  It's not his rushing ability, that's for sure.

Could Fournette get 50?  Sure.  But I don't think that's Tampa's plan.  They don't have another runner like Jones who can take the pressure off of Fournette.  I think they take that pressure off him by distributing more passes throughout other RB's.  As the off-season progresses, we'll see how things shape up.  It's possible that every other RB sucks and Fournette ends up with 80.

If the number was 50 I wouldn’t be as confident, but 35? Brady won’t have patience for a rookie, they drafted white to takeover, but not this year 

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Lol there is no way if Fournette stays healthy he doesn’t have more then 35 rec.  

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2 hours ago, jrokh said:

If the number was 50 I wouldn’t be as confident, but 35? Brady won’t have patience for a rookie, they drafted white to takeover, but not this year 

Prospect analysis that I've read on White seem to think that he's not a lead back in the NFL, but more of a pass catcher.  I'm not optimistic that he was drafted to take over for Fournette after the 2023 season.  Would they be happy if that happened?  Yeah, probably, but I don't think that why he was drafted.  I think he was drafted to limit Fournette's exposure to hits because there's no other reliable back who can carry the load if Fournette misses games.  When Jones left, as expected, I felt that was a sign of Fournette's use in the passing game being reduced.  The fact that they made no effort to address that role, makes me more confident of Fournette's role in the passing game.

If Bernard is more involved, then that could be yet another player taking away opportunities from Fournette.  Right now, before pads and what not, I'm thinking the Bucs are looking to get Fournette around 15 to 17 carries and 3 pass targets a game (if he catches 2.5, we're looking at about 42 receptions).  I see White and Bernard combining for about 3 to 5 carries and about 4 to 7 pass targets.  Vaughn will get random carries and catches here and there.  That'll put them around 350 rush attempts & 150 pass targets.  I believe Fournette, Jones, Vaughn, and Bernard were around 325 rush attempts and 135 pass targets last year.

I think there's an uptick in backs being utilized because of Bowles, but I don't think it'll be massive.

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Josh Jacobs is interesting. He's been good not great. Raiders did not pick up the option and drafted a RB in the 4. Its a make or break season for him. 

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27 minutes ago, Super Cubs said:

Josh Jacobs is interesting. He's been good not great. Raiders did not pick up the option and drafted a RB in the 4. Its a make or break season for him. 

Why?  

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1 hour ago, weepaws said:

Why?  

Why what?

Why is he interesting?

Why has he been good not great?

Why did the Raiders not pick up his option and draft a RB?

Why is it make or break?

Why what?

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6 hours ago, Super Cubs said:

Why what?

Why is he interesting?

Why has he been good not great?

Why did the Raiders not pick up his option and draft a RB?

Why is it make or break?

Why what?

Yes

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18 hours ago, Super Cubs said:

Josh Jacobs is interesting. He's been good not great. Raiders did not pick up the option and drafted a RB in the 4. Its a make or break season for him. 

i get why Weepaws is asking.

you normally dont expect  a starter when drafting a RB in the 4th round.   it can happen, but its not the type of move that makes me think Jacobs job is in jeopardy.

if they are replacing him its likely in the next draft where they will spend a higher draft pick to replace him or they will go get a free agent.

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I looked up Jacobs 1/2 point ppr stats.  

He’s been better then I thought, I’m interested in targeting him if his price is right.  

He’s been just outside of being a rb1 in 1/2 ppr all three seasons, and he had an impressive 64 targets last season. 

Im not why the Raiders didn’t pick up His option, maybe motivation, I don’t know. 

But I don’t see this being his make it or break it season, he’ll either be with the Raiders next season or with another team.  

I’m not worried about him, I think this might be his best season to date. 

 

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22 hours ago, Super Cubs said:

Josh Jacobs is interesting. He's been good not great. Raiders did not pick up the option and drafted a RB in the 4. Its a make or break season for him. 

It is interesting because if they feel he is not part of their future, he could get less work in favor of White to see what he can do. 

This is a no clue what will happen with Jacobs usage this year..

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Looking at different sites for being a starter Jacobs rankings does not seem as consistent as others.  He's not 2 or 3 spots off.  He's all over the place.  Then looking at dynasty ranking for being a starter and at his age there seems to be little confidence in him. 

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He’s 24 , even young for a football player.  

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1 hour ago, Super Cubs said:

Looking at different sites for being a starter Jacobs rankings does not seem as consistent as others.  He's not 2 or 3 spots off.  He's all over the place.  Then looking at dynasty ranking for being a starter and at his age there seems to be little confidence in him. 

Yep. Who knows? Total wildcard.

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His adp appears to be mid to late 4th rounds, looks like a solid rb 2 or even a rb1 if you take three wr in the first three rounds , that’s possible.  

Thanks. 

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6 hours ago, weepaws said:

I looked up Jacobs 1/2 point ppr stats.  

He’s been better then I thought, I’m interested in targeting him if his price is right.  

He’s been just outside of being a rb1 in 1/2 ppr all three seasons, and he had an impressive 64 targets last season. 

Im not why the Raiders didn’t pick up His option, maybe motivation, I don’t know. 

But I don’t see this being his make it or break it season, he’ll either be with the Raiders next season or with another team.  

I’m not worried about him, I think this might be his best season to date. 

 

yeah, hes been solid, but not spectacular.  But the WR on this roster have not scared anybody for years.  That means more stacked boxes on first down and less yards per carry.

With the addition of Adams, the offense will be a lot better now that they have a legit #1 WR on the roster.

that likely means even if his play stays at the same level, there will be less stacked boxes when he runs the ball, slighly more yards, and an uptick in touchdowns.

While there will be a higher percentage of plays going to Adams, that will also mean more first downs.   And if the team is playing with a lead more often in the 4th Quarter.... more garbage time carries to pad the stats.   so Jacobs will have a smaller piece(percentage wise) of a considerably larger pie and he will likely have the bonus of some garbage time carries he didnt get in past years.

I think hes a full RB1 this year.   most of the increase will come from TD's rather than yardage.

 

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Mmm interesting read about Jacobs today, Super Cubs might be right about Jacobs.  Sounds like mr Z White is someone that might be gaining on Jacobs quicker then I thought.  

 

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