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makindollaz

The guy I’m most interested to see in the 2022 rankings is…

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Or he has a stat line of , 119/88/880/6.  That’s 212 ppr points and he’s right around wr 24-26.  

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2 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Yeah, that's about what I would expect.  So let's say 7.5 targets in 17 games = 127.5 targets on the year, at his current 75% catch rate that would be 96 receptions, at his current rate of 10.1 ypc, that makes 970 yards, and then let's say a TD every other week instead of every week, for 8 TDs, and you have 96+97+48 = 241 PPR points, slotting him in around WR15 or so.  There are usually about that many WRs taken in the first 3 rounds, so St. Brown is potentially a 3rd round pick, but should definitely be gone by the end of the 4th.

Pending, of course, the offseason...

 

Ok, don't think this is my last post on Brown because you convinced me, or because I'm letting you get away with penciling him in for 8 TDs next year (2021 Tyreek 9, Diggs 10, Cooper/Lockett/Diontae 8). We'll just agree to disagree and enjoy a solid debate.

Honestly, I thought my take was obvious, but the pushback from you and some others I respect here does give me a bit of pause. That's as far as I'll go though, I'm not taking action and its very unlikely Brown will be on any teams I draft this year. I usually don't come back to this type of banter the following year and highlight out how it turned out, but I'll try to remember to do so in this case regardless of whom turns out to be correct. Cheers! :cheers:

 

 

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30 minutes ago, lesjroza said:

I usually don't come back to this type of banter the following year and highlight out how it turned out, but I'll try to remember to do so in this case regardless of whom turns out to be correct.

It's highly likely that the situation will change even before the beginning of next season, let alone by the time we know how next season turns out, so it would be kind of apples and oranges to compare what we would do if we were drafting tomorrow with what we would do with the information we'll have next August.

I'm just kind of boggled that a player who went on an absolute tear--averaging about 20 PPR pts per week to become a top 5 WR over the back half of his rookie season--wouldn't be considered a de facto fantasy starter in his second season, at least before seeing what changes the offseason may bring--and not touching him until the 8th round with the knowledge we have right now is just nuts.

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7 hours ago, Ray_T said:

I agree with much of this.

not sure they will draft a new QB. 

if you look at Goffs numbers and pro rate for a full season to account for the missed games and note that he really didn't have anybody to throw the ball to at WR at the beginning of the year, he had a pretty nice season playing on a terrible team with a terrible Defense that cant get off the field.

If I was the GM there I'd invest in the line (both O line and D line) and I'd get a WR in the first 2 rounds of this draft if possible.    A difference maker on Defense would be nice too but you cant get everything.  do we know how many draft picks they have this year?

I do agree Amon Ra may have exploded because there was nobody else to throw to.   that is certainly a possibility.  so if they bring in someone via trade or draft, he may not do nearly as well as some here expect.   its a legitimate risk.

hes definitely a player to watch, but I wouldn't touch the guy in the first 3 (possibly first 4) rounds.   After that it likely depends on how his camp went and how those offseason developments for the team affect his place in the pecking order.

 

 

 

what you quoted was not my sentiment. I had responded TO that quote. 

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10 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

 

what you quoted was not my sentiment. I had responded TO that quote. 

fair enough.   I was more presenting  my opinion as part of the greater conversation.   The quote was so people knew which part of the convo I was chiming in on.

 

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On ‎1‎/‎12‎/‎2022 at 7:49 AM, weepaws said:

Yea I don’t think taking St Brown in the first three rounds would be a wise choice.  

this.:thumbsup:

 

even if you strongly feel hes going to put up that kind of production, before you go into the draft room you find out where his ADP is sitting.

if its sitting around 61 (for example) that would place him at the end of the 5th or early 6th round in a 12 team league.

if you wanna get him, I'd target him the round before (so around pick 48 give or take a few slots)   that would be 1 full round sooner than hes projected to go.  in this case, that would be around the end of round 4 give or take a few picks.

so if that is the case, why would you take him in round 2 or 3?  

its like buying a honda civic.  good car. nothing wrong with it, but there is no need to pay the price of a Cadillac.

by drafting this guy in round 2 or 3, that's exactly what you are doing.

even if he produces at that level, the smart move is to pick someone else in round 2 or 3 (or both) grab him in round 4.

You need patience.  that's how you win drafts.  and if he slides down to round 4 and you get him, you also would have some other top 3 round players that you acquired with the earlier picks.

you do not often win by overpaying for players.   Unless that player even exceeds even your own projections the move usually backfires.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Ray_T said:

why would you take him in round 2 or 3?

Because he's more likely to have a 2nd or 3rd round ADP.

Sure, it's nice to pick top 5 WRs in the 6th or 7th round, but a lot of owners tend to stock up on top 10 players early, making it much more difficult to take them in the later rounds.

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He’s not going to have a round 2-3 adp

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1 hour ago, weepaws said:

He’s not going to have a round 2-3 adp

well, if the team does not draft or sign a WR and talks him up like hes gonna be the #1, and if he has a great camp, some may buy into the hype.

but I honestly think it more likely they sign or draft another WR.    This will likely knock him down the ratings a bit.   To what extent really depends on who that player ends up being.

I do not expect hes gonna go in the first 3 rounds but round 4-5 is certainly possible.

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They will pick up or draft WRs.  They need to, I think his earliest adp will be round 4

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15 minutes ago, weepaws said:

They will pick up or draft WRs.  They need to, I think his earliest adp will be round 4

i agree.  and they have to do it.  if hes the only WR capable of doing anything, teams will just double cover him and it will be game over.

honestly, I still think Goff is  a solid QB but at the start of the year I looked at the WR and thought, I havnt heard of nearly everyone here.  This is gonna be a tough year for Goff.

I figured the TE (hock) may be worth a pickup if my targeted TE didnt work out but I figured with the limited depth at WR he could easily be getting the other teams best corner on him just because the WR dont scare anybody.

in the end, they NEED to get someone at WR.  If they dont, that GM needs to be relieved of his duties.

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On 1/10/2022 at 3:34 PM, gcmmidwest said:

I wanna see where deebo and Patterson wind up

Will both show up as RB eligible? 

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D Singletary. 

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Lamb, what ever is his adp I’m not buying. 

The Zeke, not worthy of a first round pick any longer 

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The adp of the Steelers Harris , and DJ, is going to be interesting.  

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On 1/11/2022 at 10:06 AM, makindollaz said:

Have seen a lot of discussion about Zeke’s “disappointing” season.  I drafted him in the league I won, and he finished as the #7 RB in our PPR scoring.  While he’s not putting up the numbers he did a few years ago, he’s still pretty good.

If you figure 8-9 RB’s go in the first round of most drafts, and he finished #7, that just tells me he should have gone last 1st instead of #5 where I took him.  Still not that far off.

If the team remains the same, I'd rather have Pollard 6 rounds later.

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14 hours ago, weepaws said:

Lamb, what ever is his adp I’m not buying. 

The Zeke, not worthy of a first round pick any longer 

sure looks like thats the case.

what surprises me is how fast this line has declined. 3 years ago it was the best O line in pro football.

in todays playoff game, they looked like they were manhandled.    This is at least responsible for part of the Dallas issues this year. 

I know they have had injuries, but still.  They need to be better and this may have had a role in the production of Zeke (and to a lesser degree Lamb)

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