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makindollaz

The guy I’m most interested to see in the 2022 rankings is…

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A. St Brown in PPR.  Guy was an absolute stud the last 6 weeks and won me (and I’m sure quite a few folks) a championship in Week 17.

Is it crazy to think he could go in the top 25 overall and in the first 2 rounds?  He didn’t come in with a ton of hype, and still plays for Detroit, but there weren’t many better down the stretch.

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Mccaffery 

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4 hours ago, makindollaz said:

A. St Brown in PPR.  Guy was an absolute stud the last 6 weeks and won me (and I’m sure quite a few folks) a championship in Week 17.

Is it crazy to think he could go in the top 25 overall and in the first 2 rounds?  He didn’t come in with a ton of hype, and still plays for Detroit, but there weren’t many better down the stretch.

It's difficult to get a good read on St. Brown.  He certainly looked the part, but there is the possibility that he was just in the right place at the right time on a team lacking playmakers and a team that most opponents didn't take very seriously down the stretch.  He wouldn't be the first player to flash for a half-season only to disappear after the opponents get some tape on him.  He would be a pretty big risk to take in the first two rounds, especially if there is no upgrade at QB.

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25 minutes ago, Showboat said:

It's difficult to get a good read on St. Brown.  He certainly looked the part, but there is the possibility that he was just in the right place at the right time on a team lacking playmakers and a team that most opponents didn't take very seriously down the stretch.  He wouldn't be the first player to flash for a half-season only to disappear after the opponents get some tape on him.  He would be a pretty big risk to take in the first two rounds, especially if there is no upgrade at QB.

This is where I am.  All of what you said is legit, and I don’t want to overvalue him going into next year because I have a soft spot for him, helping me win a championship.

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I wanna see where deebo and Patterson wind up

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2 hours ago, Showboat said:

It's difficult to get a good read on St. Brown.  He certainly looked the part, but there is the possibility that he was just in the right place at the right time on a team lacking playmakers and a team that most opponents didn't take very seriously down the stretch.  He wouldn't be the first player to flash for a half-season only to disappear after the opponents get some tape on him.  He would be a pretty big risk to take in the first two rounds, especially if there is no upgrade at QB.

also it is worth noting, when a WR first arrives on the scene with some talent, usually the worst DB on the other team gets to cover him.

especially when you consider how sparingly the team used him early in the season.

the first breakout game, people thought, well, that may have been luck.    second and third week same thing.

then I'd guess the next team decided to stick someone better on to cover him.  likely not their best cover guy, but not their worst either.  

and so on.

eventually a player regresses to the mean and defenses will adjust based on who is most dangerous in the offense.

but looking at late season games is not often an indicator of what happens next season.   sometimes it can be, but if the team has already thrown in the towel on the season or is resting some of their starters for the playoffs, it can be dicey to depend on that production as a realistic projection.

He is certainly a player of interest and there is lots to like from what he has shown thus far.

I'm not sure he should be top 25 as was suggested earlier.   the sample size is too small to lay that large of a wager on him.

My best guess is hes likely a 5th round pick(give or take).

that said, I'll try to look at some film on him to see if theres anything I'm seeing that is worth making a note of.   But at this point if you grab him in the first 2-3 rounds you are likely overpaying for the guy.    the last few games shows his upside, but the first 8-10 games show his floor.  You have to look at all of it.  Not just the small sample size.

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Kupp, I’m interested to see just how high is adp is going to be.  

 

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1 minute ago, weepaws said:

Kupp, I’m interested to see just how high is adp is going to be.  

 

In full point PPR, I’d bet he’s not any lower than #4 overall.

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Kenneth Walker III- will be watching like a hawk to see which team drafts him…

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4 hours ago, makindollaz said:

In full point PPR, I’d bet he’s not any lower than #4 overall.

Wow , you think that high huh, mmm. 

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If Conner remains with Zona, his ADP will be interesting one.  

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45 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Wow , you think that high huh, mmm. 

With so many RB’s missing time this year, and Kupp being the picture of consistency, yes.

Taylor, Henry (assuming he’s ok) & Harris are the only ones I’d draft ahead of him.

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The Zeke, I think he’ll still have a first round adp, I think that’s going to be to high for him.  

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9 hours ago, weepaws said:

The Zeke, I think he’ll still have a first round adp, I think that’s going to be to high for him.  

I think it totally depends on a lot of things.   he had a nice game last week.   granted it was a weak opponent.

but if he carries the mail and plays well in the playoffs and takes most of the carries, people will likely still buy into the hype.

if he plays poorly, next week or doesn't get a ton of carries, he may end up sliding.  

Usually come playoff time, that's when you see who the team likes and prefers.

 

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Have seen a lot of discussion about Zeke’s “disappointing” season.  I drafted him in the league I won, and he finished as the #7 RB in our PPR scoring.  While he’s not putting up the numbers he did a few years ago, he’s still pretty good.

If you figure 8-9 RB’s go in the first round of most drafts, and he finished #7, that just tells me he should have gone last 1st instead of #5 where I took him.  Still not that far off.

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13 minutes ago, makindollaz said:

Have seen a lot of discussion about Zeke’s “disappointing” season.  I drafted him in the league I won, and he finished as the #7 RB in our PPR scoring.  While he’s not putting up the numbers he did a few years ago, he’s still pretty good.

If you figure 8-9 RB’s go in the first round of most drafts, and he finished #7, that just tells me he should have gone last 1st instead of #5 where I took him.  Still not that far off.

I guess the real concern with Zeke is that the second half was a shadow of what he was doing in the first half of the year.

I know the injury is at least partly to blame there and people need to acknowledge that.

and from what I can tell, the injury did linger for quite some time.

honestly I would have rather they sat him an extra week or two just to get him right than to keep playing him but teams will do that kind of thing.

either way, last week was the first good game he had in a while.  at least hes showing signs of being his old self again.

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Total points the Zeke was 7th in ppr, avg points per game, he was 16th in ppr.  

And his per game avg was less this past season with Dak, then 2020 without Dak for most of the season.   

Im not seeing a first round buy.  

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well, if hes a first round, pick it is the tail of the first round.

hes definitely not a top 5 pick like he was last year.

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I wouldn't draft Zeke in the first round.

He lacks a certain upside that I want in a 1st round pick.

His average at the end of the year may end up being a low end RB1, but he's not gonna have many big games

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33 minutes ago, polecatt said:

I wouldn't draft Zeke in the first round.

He lacks a certain upside that I want in a 1st round pick.

His average at the end of the year may end up being a low end RB1, but he's not gonna have many big games

Despite my defense of him above, I wouldn’t take him in the 1st round next year either.  Maybe 2nd.  I took him in the 1st round, then Ekeler in the 2nd, so it evened out for me as they basically flipped production.

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23 hours ago, Showboat said:

It's difficult to get a good read on St. Brown.  He certainly looked the part, but there is the possibility that he was just in the right place at the right time on a team lacking playmakers and a team that most opponents didn't take very seriously down the stretch.  He wouldn't be the first player to flash for a half-season only to disappear after the opponents get some tape on him.  He would be a pretty big risk to take in the first two rounds, especially if there is no upgrade at QB.

 

The elephant in the room regarding Amon-Ra is how much the environment that supported his target run changes this off-season

I'm comfortable saying Detroit is going to have a bunch of changes, including some larger investments at the WR position than they have in Brown.

FA signings, draft, and most likely both will be used to address the position and it would not be a shock for the Lions to address WR at the top of the 2nd or if they trade down in the first.

There were not many healthy target options in Detroit (including Swift and Hock) for some of his run.

Not to mention, its possible the Lions could be drafting and starting a rookie QB at some point in the season next year

Just my opinion, but I wouldn't touch St Brown personally above the 8th round for now which means he won't be on any of my rosters for early drafts.

Post NFL Draft and Free agency it makes a lot of sense to reevaluate but taking him now based on his statistical production in the last 1/3 of the year would be super high risk.

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So back to St. Brown for a moment.  If you had him on your roster in a keeper league, and someone offered you Patterson for him, would you take it if Zeke & Miles Sanders were your other RB’s?

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1 hour ago, lesjroza said:

I wouldn't touch St Brown personally above the 8th round for now which means he won't be on any of my rosters for early drafts.

I get that there are reasons for caution with St. Brown, but the 8th round?  For a guy who was a top 5 WR for the 2nd half of the season, and second only to Cooper Kupp from Week 12 on?

The 8th round means you basically don't consider him to be a top 30 WR next year.

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1 hour ago, makindollaz said:

So back to St. Brown for a moment.  If you had him on your roster in a keeper league, and someone offered you Patterson for him, would you take it if Zeke & Miles Sanders were your other RB’s?

No.  I wouldn’t, saw Patterson break down his last 6 games, in 1/2 ppr he avg 6 points per game those last 6 games.  I agree that the Lions will be making changes. And a healthy Swift could bite into St Brown production, but I would rather keep him.  

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reading the thread title and as a owner St Brown was the 1st name to come to mind. As of right now I'm keeping him in both of my leagues.  In a redraft he is a player I would want on my team but I'm not sure if I would go all in with him as my first wr taken. Unless I feel he's the best player there.  We do not draft until around Labor Day so plenty of time to figure it out.

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Yea I don’t think taking St Brown in the first three rounds would be a wise choice.  

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19 hours ago, AxeElf said:

I get that there are reasons for caution with St. Brown, but the 8th round?  For a guy who was a top 5 WR for the 2nd half of the season, and second only to Cooper Kupp from Week 12 on?

The 8th round means you basically don't consider him to be a top 30 WR next year.

 

 

Do you?

Make your list of WRs

Are you sure he is even the top target on the Lions.......................... which is what it takes to get him in the top 30 WRs IMO

Of course we are talking about this prior to FA, and draft, but its hard for me not to strongly discount the possibility he ends up as even the WR1 on the Lions given potential additions, let alone the top target on the team given Hockenson and Swifts presence and I don't see him top 30 unless he is the top target on the Lions by a margin. Even then don't forget there could be a rookie QB starting for a portion of the year which historically would make even the top target a very inconsistent source of points.

My primary point, rather than getting bogged down with exact ranks, it's very poor risk reward to be taking this guy high right now, many more ways to lose this one than win it prior to the season.

 

 

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24 minutes ago, lesjroza said:

 

 

Do you?

Make your list of WRs

Are you sure he is even the top target on the Lions.......................... which is what it takes to get him in the top 30 WRs IMO

Of course we are talking about this prior to FA, and draft, but its hard for me not to strongly discount the possibility he ends up as even the WR1 on the Lions given potential additions, let alone the top target on the team given Hockenson and Swifts presence and I don't see him top 30 unless he is the top target on the Lions by a margin. Even then don't forget there could be a rookie QB starting for a portion of the year which historically would make even the top target a very inconsistent source of points.

My primary point, rather than getting bogged down with exact ranks, it's very poor risk reward to be taking this guy high right now, many more ways to lose this one than win it prior to the season.

 

 

 

just to backstop my thought process a bit, make of this what you will, but it should open some minds to consider the alternative viewpoint

I probably didn't format it as very well to make the point but take a look and let it sink in

 

This is from a full PPR with fairly conventional scoring, other leagues may differ slightly but not by much

 

                Amon Ra                              Hockenson                            Swift

 

Week 1-12.          WR 63                     TE3                                         RB8

Week 13-17.        WR 2                      TE 39                                       RB90 

                                                      (Played only 1 game)                (Played only 1 game)

Brown benefitted in a very big way from being the only realistic target due to injuries in the short/intermediate area for a team that was in a garbage time type atmosphere mostly.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, lesjroza said:

Do you?  (consider ARSB a top 30 WR)

At this point, yes, I would absolutely draft him well before the 8th round, and if I was drafting right now, probly in the 2nd or 3rd round.

We shall see what changes come to the team, but it's likely that ARSB will continue to have a lot of value in PPR, just because he's drawing so many targets--a la Jamison Crowder a couple of years ago (which is exactly what Axe Elf predicted for ARSB when he was drafted by the Lions).  He's more likely to lose out on some of the TDs he's been enjoying (6 TDs in 6 games probly isn't sustainable) than he is to be shut out of the offense in general, after becoming the 2nd-most productive WR in the NFL over the back half of his rookie season.

If he has a rookie QB, is he likely to be worse than Tim Boyle?  ARSB had two of his most productive games with Boyle at QB.

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Hard pass on Amon-Ra before round 5. As has already been said, he was the only game in town when he blew up. With Swift, the Hoch and whoever else they bring in he'll be serviceable but not a guy I would want early.

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53 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

 but it's likely that ARSB will continue to have a lot of value in PPR, just because he's drawing so many targets--a la Jamison Crowder a couple of years ago (which is exactly what Axe Elf predicted for ARSB when he was drafted by the Lions). 

He's more likely to lose out on some of the TDs he's been enjoying (6 TDs in 6 games probly isn't sustainable) than he is to be shut out of the offense in general, after becoming the 2nd-most productive WR in the NFL over the back half of his rookie season.

If he has a rookie QB, is he likely to be worse than Tim Boyle?  ARSB had two of his most productive games with Boyle at QB.

 

This is a big part of where we differ. IMO Brown's target totals (for a total of 5 games) WILL NOT be sustained into next year. Here are his totals by week

4 5 1 8 8 7 - 5 bye 6 4 4 12 12 11 11 11 10 119 7.4

Is it that Brown took a sudden leap in perceived ability so they had to get him more looks? Or was it the lack of Hockenson/Swift on the field during those weeks?

Take Brown back down to a 7-8 target a game avg, (which would still be above his avg the rest of the season) lose a couple of TDs which may instead go to Hock in the red zone and or Swift as a playmaker, and see how the points begin to melt away.

I would absolutely concede that IF Brown averages 11 targets per game in '22 he is likely to be worth higher than where I'm willing to draft him now, but honestly still think it would be a risk to take him in the 3rd. I just don't think it's going to happen even without consideration of any pass catching investments Detroit may make

On Boyle vs a rookie QB, obviously we have no clue for now, but all things being equal in a garbage time environment where Ds are playing loose so as to shorten the game I'd take the avg  backup QB with experience over most any rookie QB. Non - elite rookies make the type of mistakes Ds are playing loosely to take advantage of and have a hard time sustaining drives for any length of time though may be more likely to make a splash play based on athletic talent. It's also realistic that if the rook is a running QB............ the passing volume is way, way down even IF the efficiency were high. 

Congrats on your prediction if you benefitted! 

I personally drafted Brown in several best ball leagues based on the potential he could end up being useful as the WR depth chart was very unclear and I believed the team would be a haven for garbage time points. It worked out well for me, but the investment required for '22 makes it a very different bet.

 

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On 1/10/2022 at 5:19 PM, weepaws said:

Kupp, I’m interested to see just how high is adp is going to be.  

 

His ADP should be around where Adams was this season. For all the RB injuries, most leagues are still going to slot the most talented RB's into those first few draft picks.  Taylor, Henry, don't forget Ekeler, Mixon didn't have a great YPC season but is young and in a high powered offense, Kamara will still be in the mix for top 5 pick. McCaffrey is a wild card, Harris... would like to see who is under center. 

and WR is so deep. 

 

On 1/10/2022 at 5:21 PM, Hardcore troubadour said:

Javonte Williams 

Round 2 if he is the undisputed bell cow.

 

On 1/10/2022 at 1:10 PM, weepaws said:

Mccaffery 

I agree with this. CMC is who I am most interested in. How far does he fall and at what point do owners feel they need to take that risk/reward gamble on a top 3 player when healthy...

 

On 1/10/2022 at 1:59 PM, Showboat said:

It's difficult to get a good read on St. Brown.  He certainly looked the part, but there is the possibility that he was just in the right place at the right time on a team lacking playmakers and a team that most opponents didn't take very seriously down the stretch.  He wouldn't be the first player to flash for a half-season only to disappear after the opponents get some tape on him.  He would be a pretty big risk to take in the first two rounds, especially if there is no upgrade at QB.

Im not taking him in round 2 (and I now have a soft spot for him) but I don't get the feeling that he is a flash in the pan ala JuJu who immediately coms to mind. JuJu flashed with AB on the other side and wilted as the #1. ARSB flashed once Hockenson and Swift were out, as the clear #1 option for Jared Goff.  I think no upgrade at QB might help his value. A QB like Goff who may force feed him on short routes and help him rack up PPR stats is perfect. 

 

On 1/10/2022 at 4:34 PM, gcmmidwest said:

I wanna see where deebo and Patterson wind up

They don't interest me all that much. Deebo will be a late 1 / early 2 most likely, as he should be. Patterson is a little more interesting and will depend a bit on what the Falcons do in the offseason but if they commit to giving him touches, he was the 18th RB in fantasy on a PPG basis who disappeared the last 4 weeks, coming off season not many saw coming. Does it really get better in 2022?

 

 

On 1/11/2022 at 2:22 PM, makindollaz said:

So back to St. Brown for a moment.  If you had him on your roster in a keeper league, and someone offered you Patterson for him, would you take it if Zeke & Miles Sanders were your other RB’s?

No. Patterson will likely not have a better season than he did in 2021 and his season feels better than it actually was because he was a big time value as a listed RB. ARSB is entering year two and has much higher upside. 

Look for other avenues to fortify your RB position.

 

On 1/11/2022 at 1:48 PM, lesjroza said:

 

The elephant in the room regarding Amon-Ra is how much the environment that supported his target run changes this off-season

I'm comfortable saying Detroit is going to have a bunch of changes, including some larger investments at the WR position than they have in Brown.

FA signings, draft, and most likely both will be used to address the position and it would not be a shock for the Lions to address WR at the top of the 2nd or if they trade down in the first.

There were not many healthy target options in Detroit (including Swift and Hock) for some of his run.

Not to mention, its possible the Lions could be drafting and starting a rookie QB at some point in the season next year

Just my opinion, but I wouldn't touch St Brown personally above the 8th round for now which means he won't be on any of my rosters for early drafts.

Post NFL Draft and Free agency it makes a lot of sense to reevaluate but taking him now based on his statistical production in the last 1/3 of the year would be super high risk.

Not touching him before the 8th round is silly. Im not saying hes a 2nd rounder but he certainly deserves a look as early as round 4/5. 

Detroit may have a bunch of changes but until we see an organization who can actually make positive changes, I don't know how much these changes will hurt ARSB. A smart organization would see the player they have in him, entering year two, and do what they can to support him. Of course I just noted that Detroit is not a smart organization....

Hes not going to continue his pace over the final stretch of this season.... not with Hockenson back (and Swift) but the counter argument there is that teams won't be able to key on him. He won't have to carry the offense. I think he has a nice rapport with Goff and I think Goff gets a bit of a bad rap sometimes. Lets see what Stafford does for the Rams in the playoffs. He is more talented than Goff but  He's never won a playoff game, which Goff has. 

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9 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

The elephant in the room regarding Amon-Ra is how much the environment that supported his target run changes this off-season

I'm comfortable saying Detroit is going to have a bunch of changes, including some larger investments at the WR position than they have in Brown.

FA signings, draft, and most likely both will be used to address the position and it would not be a shock for the Lions to address WR at the top of the 2nd or if they trade down in the first.

There were not many healthy target options in Detroit (including Swift and Hock) for some of his run.

Not to mention, its possible the Lions could be drafting and starting a rookie QB at some point in the season next year

I agree with much of this.

not sure they will draft a new QB. 

if you look at Goffs numbers and pro rate for a full season to account for the missed games and note that he really didn't have anybody to throw the ball to at WR at the beginning of the year, he had a pretty nice season playing on a terrible team with a terrible Defense that cant get off the field.

If I was the GM there I'd invest in the line (both O line and D line) and I'd get a WR in the first 2 rounds of this draft if possible.    A difference maker on Defense would be nice too but you cant get everything.  do we know how many draft picks they have this year?

I do agree Amon Ra may have exploded because there was nobody else to throw to.   that is certainly a possibility.  so if they bring in someone via trade or draft, he may not do nearly as well as some here expect.   its a legitimate risk.

hes definitely a player to watch, but I wouldn't touch the guy in the first 3 (possibly first 4) rounds.   After that it likely depends on how his camp went and how those offseason developments for the team affect his place in the pecking order.

 

 

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3 hours ago, lesjroza said:

Take Brown back down to a 7-8 target a game avg, (which would still be above his avg the rest of the season) lose a couple of TDs which may instead go to Hock in the red zone and or Swift as a playmaker, and see how the points begin to melt away.

Yeah, that's about what I would expect.  So let's say 7.5 targets in 17 games = 127.5 targets on the year, at his current 75% catch rate that would be 96 receptions, at his current rate of 10.1 ypc, that makes 970 yards, and then let's say a TD every other week instead of every week, for 8 TDs, and you have 96+97+48 = 241 PPR points, slotting him in around WR15 or so.  There are usually about that many WRs taken in the first 3 rounds, so St. Brown is potentially a 3rd round pick, but should definitely be gone by the end of the 4th.

Pending, of course, the offseason...

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9 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Yeah, that's about what I would expect.  So let's say 7.5 targets in 17 games = 127.5 targets on the year, at his current 75% catch rate that would be 96 receptions, at his current rate of 10.1 ypc, that makes 970 yards, and then let's say a TD every other week instead of every week, for 8 TDs, and you have 96+97+48 = 241 PPR points, slotting him in around WR15 or so.  There are usually about that many WRs taken in the first 3 rounds, so St. Brown is potentially a 3rd round pick, but should definitely be gone by the end of the 4th.

Pending, of course, the offseason...

Nice breakdown. I am very susceptible to WR hype. I need this kind of analysis. 

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