Tyreek Hill and K.C.'s Offense 2021

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

4 minutes ago, kcBlitzkrieg said:

Mahomes 2021 vs. "lots of blitz" =  #1 in passer rating and #1 in completion percentage

If I'm a Mahomes owner/fan or KC fan, please....blitz away...

Not saying he's right, but don't you think Tyreek Hill not being there would change things this year?

[Ray_T 591]

3 minutes ago, kcBlitzkrieg said:

Mahomes 2021 vs. "lots of blitz" =  #1 in passer rating and #1 in completion percentage

If I'm a Mahomes owner/fan or KC fan, please....blitz away...

well, its different when you have 2 studs catching the ball.

the loss of one of those (hill) makes it tougher.

That said, when you blitz, you often want to be physical at the line.    a normal DB isnt gonna successfully jam a TE very often.     A LB might but then you are looking at a speed mismatch with Kelce.

Unless you have a LB jamming him at the line and  a DB sitting 3-5 yards back ready to take him if and when he beats the jam.

but yeah, it will be an interesting year for sure.

 

[kcBlitzkrieg 17]

In five games without Tyreek Hill, the former league MVP has accumulated a passer rating of 103.1 with 1,737 yards and eight touchdowns to only one interception.

He's averaging 347.4 yards per game with a 63.5 completion percentage and 103 passer rating.  

I think he'll be OK.  

 

[kcBlitzkrieg 17]

From 10/22/21 via SFA

No one is blitzing Patrick Mahomes this season. Per TruMedia, Mahomes is the least blitzed quarterback in the league on just 12.8% of his dropbacks. This isn’t exactly new. Defenses started treating Mahomes and the Kansas City offense this way throughout last season when teams went two-high at a wild rate in an attempt to stop explosive pass plays.

Last season, Mahomes was blitzed on 20.6% of his dropbacks, which was already the second-lowest rate in the league during the 2020 season. Of course, Mahomes killed the blitz when those extra rushers were sent. He completed 69.1% of his passes for 9.31 yards per attempt and a league-leading 0.48 EPA per dropback against five or more rushers in 2020. Instead of tasking the risk of not getting pressure with the extra rushers and getting shredded, defenses have gotten less aggressive on the pass rush and have decided to keep those defenders in coverage.

 

....I mean, someone can go back through and chart his stats vs. the blitz in the 5 games that he's played without Tyreek if you want.  Mahomes is an all-time elite QB.  Some of you guys are funny...."out of the top 8 QB scorers"  YES, if he gets injured and misses time he won't make the top 6 or 8 scoring QBs.  If he stays healthy then the KC offense would need to turn into the SF or Baltimore offense for him not to be a top 5 or 6 Fantasy QB.  He completed six passes to six different receivers on their first drive of the preseason the other day.  Will this KC offense look different than years' past without Ty???  Hell yes.  Will they fall from being a perennial top 3 offense in the NFL to outside the top 10 ??  I say hell NO but that's just my educated humble opinion.  

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

9 minutes ago, kcBlitzkrieg said:

In five games without Tyreek Hill, the former league MVP has accumulated a passer rating of 103.1 with 1,737 yards and eight touchdowns to only one interception.

He's averaging 347.4 yards per game with a 63.5 completion percentage and 103 passer rating.  

I think he'll be OK.  

 

...and those 5 games were before teams started playing KC differently, yes?

[jrokh 569]

2 hours ago, Skinny_Bastard said:

At the right ADP, maybe.  Think most KC offensive players will be headaches this season.    I have Mahommes outside of top 8.

Top Ten scoring offense isn’t something to avoid In fantasy. My only point. I wouldn’t reach for any of them, though I wouldn’t kill someone for doing so with Kelce

[Ray_T 591]

2 hours ago, kcBlitzkrieg said:

In five games without Tyreek Hill, the former league MVP has accumulated a passer rating of 103.1 with 1,737 yards and eight touchdowns to only one interception.

He's averaging 347.4 yards per game with a 63.5 completion percentage and 103 passer rating.  

I think he'll be OK.  

 

I agree he will be ok. 

I just dont think he will be elite anymore.   Not until a new WR steps up and lights it up.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

Mahommes took the least amount of sacks last season.   This is a by-product of having Hills on that offense.  I can wager he will get HIT a lot more this season raising the risk of injury.

[AxeElf 787]

30 minutes ago, Skinny_Bastard said:

Mahommes took the least amount of sacks last season.   This is a by-product of having Hills on that offense.

Yeah, "Hills" was a great pass-blocker.

[weepaws 2,460]

KC won’t win another Super with Mahomes as their Qb.  Been saying that since they last won the super bowl. 

Sorry.  

Ff wise Mahomes I think will still be a top 6 Qb.  Lots of interesting variables this season in that offense.  

[DrG 94]

39 minutes ago, Skinny_Bastard said:

Mahommes took the least amount of sacks last season.   This is a by-product of having Hills on that offense.  I can wager he will get HIT a lot more this season raising the risk of injury.

KC upgraded their line. Mahomes, to me, seemed to take a step forward with his progressions and touch on his underneath passes. At times, he looks unstoppable.

Juju and later in the year, Skyy should help fill the void. KC will shorten up their passing game a little this year.

[DrG 94]

To WPs point I wonder if KC backfield will be very productive. I don’t have KC as a Super Bowl favorite, but I wouldn’t rule them out.

[Ray_T 591]

10 minutes ago, DrG said:

KC upgraded their line. Mahomes, to me, seemed to take a step forward with his progressions and touch on his underneath passes. At times, he looks unstoppable.

Juju and later in the year, Skyy should help fill the void. KC will shorten up their passing game a little this year.

Sky has to step up.

JuJu can be a fine #2 WR.   hes a big bodied WR who should be able to catch passes inside and use that big body to shield the ball from DB's.

But Skyy is the one i expect will really open up this offense.   it may not happen until the second half of this season or next year sometime.    But he will get in on a few plays drawn up just for him and he will show why he was drafted as early as he was.

[weepaws 2,460]

I like JuJu to rebound in a very positive way this season. 

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

in 2019, the one year Hill didn't finish in the top 25 for WR, Mahommes finished outside of top 5.

The 2 years Hill finished in the top 5, Mahommes finished at 1 & 2.

So yes, there's a lot of correlation here.

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

In the thread discussing Hill being traded to the Dolphins, I posted a link to an article stating that after week 6 (when the Chiefs were 3-3), they altered the way they called plays and game planned.  It's why Tyreek Hill's numbers were down after that.  Through 6 weeks, Hill was WR2 averaging 23 fpg.  From Weeks 7 to 18, he was WR18 (for WR's playing at least 8 games), averaging 14.4 fpg.  In that same time frame, Weeks 7 through 18, Mahomes was QB8 averaging 19.3 fpg.   In the prior 6 weeks, he was QB1 averaging 26.9 fpg.

I think it's pretty safe to say that with Hill being gone, regression is likely.  As someone said earlier, he'll still be great, but he won't be elite.  I was thinking he'd still be top 5, but thinking about it more, I can see him fall to the 7 to 10 range because I think guys who were behind Mahomes last year, like Burrow, Jackson, Stafford, Murray, and Hurts, all could pass him this year.

A wild card though, could be that Mahomes' rushing yards & TD's go up.  He's been around 300 & 2, but with Hill being gone, Mahomes may run more and post 450 & 5.  That increase of 33 points would make up for a drop of what... 425 passing yards and 4 TD's.  If he went from 4839 / 37 to 4400 / 33, but rushes for 150 more yards and 3 more TD's, it's a wash.

[weepaws 2,460]

2 hours ago, Skinny_Bastard said:

in 2019, the one year Hill didn't finish in the top 25 for WR, Mahommes finished outside of top 5.

The 2 years Hill finished in the top 5, Mahommes finished at 1 & 2.

So yes, there's a lot of correlation here.

Nice

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

On 8/16/2022 at 10:20 AM, TBayXXXVII said:

In the thread discussing Hill being traded to the Dolphins, I posted a link to an article stating that after week 6 (when the Chiefs were 3-3), they altered the way they called plays and game planned.  It's why Tyreek Hill's numbers were down after that.  Through 6 weeks, Hill was WR2 averaging 23 fpg.  From Weeks 7 to 18, he was WR18 (for WR's playing at least 8 games), averaging 14.4 fpg.  In that same time frame, Weeks 7 through 18, Mahomes was QB8 averaging 19.3 fpg.   In the prior 6 weeks, he was QB1 averaging 26.9 fpg.

I think it's pretty safe to say that with Hill being gone, regression is likely.  As someone said earlier, he'll still be great, but he won't be elite.  I was thinking he'd still be top 5, but thinking about it more, I can see him fall to the 7 to 10 range because I think guys who were behind Mahomes last year, like Burrow, Jackson, Stafford, Murray, and Hurts, all could pass him this year.

A wild card though, could be that Mahomes' rushing yards & TD's go up.

In the thread discussing Hill being traded to the Dolphins, I posted a link to an article stating that after week 6 (when the Chiefs were 3-3), they altered the way they called plays and game planned.  It's why Tyreek Hill's numbers were down after that.  Through 6 weeks, Hill was WR2 averaging 23 fpg.  From Weeks 7 to 18, he was WR18 (for WR's playing at least 8 games), averaging 14.4 fpg.  In that same time frame, Weeks 7 through 18, Mahomes was QB8 averaging 19.3 fpg.   In the prior 6 weeks, he was QB1 averaging 26.9 fpg.

I think it's pretty safe to say that with Hill being gone, regression is likely.  As someone said earlier, he'll still be great, but he won't be elite.  I was thinking he'd still be top 5, but thinking about it more, I can see him fall to the 7 to 10 range because I think guys who were behind Mahomes last year, like Burrow, Jackson, Stafford, Murray, and Hurts, all could pass him this year.

A wild card though, could be that Mahomes' rushing yards & TD's go up.  He's been around 300 & 2, but with Hill being gone, Mahomes may run more and post 450 & 5.  That increase of 33 points would make up for a drop of what... 425 passing yards and 4 TD's.  If he went from 4839 / 37 to 4400 / 33, but rushes for 150 more yards and 3 more TD's, it's a wash.

Nice write up.  With the depth of the QB position, i can easily see Mahommes falling into the 5-10 range.