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AxeElf

The Defense That Will Save Your Season

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Of course the Raiders sucked last week. I know better than to touch that disaster of an organization.   I’ll give the Steelers a roll this week. 

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Pop quiz: Which Defense has the most pts over their last 4 games ?  
60 pts minimum. Starting points 3 times the yahoo default value, but it's all relative.

 

Defense/Special Teams League Value Yahoo Default Value
Sack 1  
Interception 2  
Fumble Recovery 2  
Touchdown 6  
Safety 2  
Block Kick 2  
Points Allowed 0 points
Yahoo Default
30 10
Points Allowed 1-6 points
Yahoo Default
25 7
Points Allowed 7-13 points
Yahoo Default
20 4
Points Allowed 14-20 points
Yahoo Default
10 1
Points Allowed 21-27 points
Yahoo Default
5 0
Points Allowed 28-34 points -1  
Points Allowed 35+ points -4  
Extra Point Returned 2

 

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In usual DST scoring, Tennessee has the most fantasy points over the past four games.  However, the Patriots and Cowboys have higher average points per game, due to only playing 3 games during that stretch.

Your mileage may vary, with this system.

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13 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

In usual DST scoring, Tennessee has the most fantasy points over the past four games.  However, the Patriots and Cowboys have higher average points per game, due to only playing 3 games during that stretch.

Your mileage may vary, with this system.

I figured you'd reply, & you're right. 

"the Patriots and Cowboys have higher average points per game, due to only playing 3 games during that stretch" 

I took that into account, by going back 5 weeks for those teams that had a bye. So they don't have higher average points per game.  

Titans 104
Jets      91
Patriots 89
Eagles  75
Ravens 68

Seahawks & Vikings 67
Colts 66
Cowboys 65
Skins 62
Saints 61

Of course the Titans had pretty easy matchups in 3 of those games.  

Week
Date
Opp
Status
Fan Pts
Pts vs.
Sack
Int
Fum Rec
TD
1 Sep 11 NYG Final L 20-21 14.00 21 5 1 1 0
2 Sep 19 @Buf Final L 7-41 -3.00 35 1 0 0 0
3 Sep 25 LV Final W 24-22 8.00 22 1 1 0 0
4 Oct 2 @Ind Final W 24-17 19.00 17 3 1 2 0
5 Oct 9 @Was Final W 21-17 15.00 17 3 1 0 0
6 BYE - - - - - - - -
7 Oct 23 Ind Final W 19-10 35.00 10 3 2 1 1
8 Oct 30 @Hou Final W 17-10 25.00 10 3 1 0 0
9 Nov 6 @KC Final L 17-20 16.00 20 4 1 0 0
10 Nov 13 Den Final W 17-10 28.00 10 6 1 0 0

 

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2 hours ago, easilyscan said:

So they don't have higher average points per game.

Just depends on how you interpret "the past four games"--as the last four weeks that games were played in the NFL, or as the last four weeks that each individual team had played a game in the NFL.

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4 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Just depends on how you interpret "the past four games"--as the last four weeks that games were played in the NFL, or as the last four weeks that each individual team had played a game in the NFL.

"Which Defense has the most pts over their last 4 games ?  

Not sure how I could've made it more clear.

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4 hours ago, AxeElf said:

In usual DST scoring, Tennessee has the most fantasy points over the past four games.

Not sure how I could've made it more clear.

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Just now, AxeElf said:

Not sure how I could've made it more clear.

Due to a fragile ego, some people refuse to admit they are wrong, even in the face of overwhelming evidence. If a person is unable to cope psychologically with being wrong, they may attempt to deny facts in order to justify their actions or beliefs. 

That is the very definition of AxeElf

 

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I'm sure Axe Elf would cope quite well with being wrong, were he ever presented with that opportunity.

Until then, we can only speculate.

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On 11/2/2022 at 11:57 AM, AxeElf said:

After New Orleans this week and then their bye (should be able to pick them up after Week 10), their remaining schedule consists of Carolina (2-6), Jacksonville (2-6), Denver (3-5), Pittsburgh (2-6), Cleveland(3-5), and for the final two playoff weeks, Atlanta (4-4) and Pittsburgh (2-6) again.  They do play Cincinnati in Week 18, but hopefully no one is still playing fantasy football in Week 18.

Got Dallas?  They have Minnesota (6-1) and the Giants (6-2) coming up, and face Philadelphia (7-0) and Tennessee (5-2) in playoff weeks 16 and 17.

Got New England?  They have Minnesota (6-1) and Buffalo (6-1) coming up, and face Cincinnati (4-4) and Miami (5-3) in Weeks 16 and 17.

Got Buffalo?  They have Minnesota and Detroit coming up, and also face Miami and Cincinnati in two of their final three games.

Got Philadelphia?  They have Tennessee (5-2) and the Giants (6-2) coming up, and face Dallas (6-2) and New Orleans (3-5) in Weeks 16 and 17

Week 11:

The only defense that scored more points than the Ravens was the Commanders, with 19.

Baltimore:  17

New England:  17

Dallas:  16

Philadelphia:  7

Buffalo:  5

Thank you, Axe Elf!

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I've had the Cowboys D in most of the season and I don't plan on changing that.

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For fantasy defense, if you're lazy or whatever, there's one stat much more telling than anything else.

Do they get to the QB? How many sacks do they get?

Anything good on D starts with the pass rush. If they can do that, all the other stuff tends to follow

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4 hours ago, polecatt said:

For fantasy defense, if you're lazy or whatever, there's one stat much more telling than anything else.

Do they get to the QB? How many sacks do they get?

Anything good on D starts with the pass rush. If they can do that, all the other stuff tends to follow

Amen, that part of the game hasn’t changed.  

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5 hours ago, polecatt said:

For fantasy defense, if you're lazy or whatever, there's one stat much more telling than anything else.

Do they get to the QB? How many sacks do they get?

Anything good on D starts with the pass rush. If they can do that, all the other stuff tends to follow

Absolutely. I've streamed most of the year. The Cowboys owner held them through the week 9 bye, but dropped them after the week 10 loss to the Packers. I picked them up. Wasn't smart enough to use them against the Vikings last week, but their next 3 games are at home. Giants-Colts-Texans. Going to set it & forget it. 

 

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2 hours ago, easilyscan said:

Absolutely. I've streamed most of the year. The Cowboys owner held them through the week 9 bye, but dropped them after the week 10 loss to the Packers. I picked them up. Wasn't smart enough to use them against the Vikings last week, but their next 3 games are at home. Giants-Colts-Texans. Going to set it & forget it. 

 

Yep, that's who I've started most of the season too. I targeted them in the draft. I sat them a couple of weeks early on but they're pretty much set in my line up now. Even against a good team they're still about as likely to score me points as a streamer.

I said before the draft, they have Micah Parsons who is a top candidate to lead the league in sacks, and a CB, Trevon Diggs, who had the most picks a player has had in the past 40 years, that's a defense that's gonna score a lot!

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Gmen have three starting oline players out for tomorrow’s game, I have Barkely on two teams , I thinking of benching him, Cowboys def should be a great play.  

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1 hour ago, weepaws said:

Gmen have three starting oline players out for tomorrow’s game, I have Barkely on two teams , I thinking of benching him, Cowboys def should be a great play.  

Good to know. Having most the OL out vs an elite pass rush, never a good thing.

Who knows though, if they're smart, that could mean they set up some screen plays for Barkley to counter the rush. I wouldn't be surprised if he is able to get them off guard once and break a long one for a TD.

I could see not much going in the rushing game, but 5-6 catches and a 65 yd TD or something

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4 hours ago, polecatt said:

Good to know. Having most the OL out vs an elite pass rush, never a good thing.

It's ok, they probly have some players to replace those who are out.

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11 hours ago, AxeElf said:

It's ok, they probly have some players to replace those who are out.

I'm sure they will but they won't be as good

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On 11/2/2022 at 12:57 PM, AxeElf said:

Ok, a defense probably won't save your season, but Axe Elf still cares that you get the most production possible from your fantasy football team, so here's the tip that will ensure your dominance at that position for the playoff run.

Depending on the depth of your league, they may already be rostered, but coming off a game against Tampa Bay, with a game against New Orleans and then their bye coming up, most streamers probably have already dropped or will drop the Baltimore Ravens DST in the next week or two.

The Baltimore Ravens are currently tied for 8th place among fantasy DSTs, which is pretty good considering their schedule so far has consisted of Miami (5-3), the Flacco Jets (5-3), New England (4-4), Buffalo (6-1), Cincinnati (4-4), the Giants (6-2), Cleveland (3-5) and Tampa Bay (3-5).

After New Orleans this week and then their bye (should be able to pick them up after Week 10), their remaining schedule consists of Carolina (2-6), Jacksonville (2-6), Denver (3-5), Pittsburgh (2-6), Cleveland(3-5), and for the final two playoff weeks, Atlanta (4-4) and Pittsburgh (2-6) again.  They do play Cincinnati in Week 18, but hopefully no one is still playing fantasy football in Week 18.

Got Dallas?  They have Minnesota (6-1) and the Giants (6-2) coming up, and face Philadelphia (7-0) and Tennessee (5-2) in playoff weeks 16 and 17.

Got New England?  They have Minnesota (6-1) and Buffalo (6-1) coming up, and face Cincinnati (4-4) and Miami (5-3) in Weeks 16 and 17.

Got Buffalo?  They have Minnesota and Detroit coming up, and also face Miami and Cincinnati in two of their final three games.

Got Philadelphia?  They have Tennessee (5-2) and the Giants (6-2) coming up, and face Dallas (6-2) and New Orleans (3-5) in Weeks 16 and 17

You're welcome!.

I have owned and held Baltimore all season along with Philly. 
 

in fact, I don’t have a single league where Baltimore has not been owned. A top 5 fantasy defense is usually not streamed. 
 

even when you made this post they were a top notch DST. 

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If one starts only one def, one should only roster one def. use that extra roster slot for a wr/rb.  Geez. 

And only one kicker please. 

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3 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

I have owned and held Baltimore all season along with Philly. 
in fact, I don’t have a single league where Baltimore has not been owned. A top 5 fantasy defense is usually not streamed. 
even when you made this post they were a top notch DST. 

Most advanced owners won't tie up two roster slots to hold a second defense.

Across all Yahoo leagues, the BAL DST was 87% owned in Week 9.  In their bye week, Week 10, the BAL DST was 67% owned.  So out of every three typical leagues, there were 12 owners who had a chance to pick them up after their bye week, per Axe Elf's advice.

It was for those 12 owners that Axe Elf toils.

And in fact, many of them benefitted from the suggestion, as by Week 11, the BAL DST was 93% rostered, so for that 26% of you out there who profited from the wisdom of the Elf--you're welcome!

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5 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Most advanced owners won't tie up two roster slots to hold a second defense.

Across all Yahoo leagues, the BAL DST was 87% owned in Week 9.  In their bye week, Week 10, the BAL DST was 67% owned.  So out of every three typical leagues, there were 12 owners who had a chance to pick them up after their bye week, per Axe Elf's advice.

It was for those 12 owners that Axe Elf toils.

And in fact, many of them benefitted from the suggestion, as by Week 11, the BAL DST was 93% rostered, so for that 26% of you out there who profited from the wisdom of the Elf--you're welcome!

When you’re 10-1 with your first loss in week 9, you can afford to stash / play keep away from potential playoff opponents with a second DST. Though I agree it is not the norm. 
 

using % ownership of yahoo or espn leagues is faulty because many of them are non competitive. They are only typical leagues if you play in a bunch of leagues with strangers that end up having 2-3 deadbeat owners. 

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6 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

using % ownership of yahoo or espn leagues is faulty because many of them are non competitive. They are only typical leagues if you play in a bunch of leagues with strangers that end up having 2-3 deadbeat owners.

Deadbeat owners wouldn't be the ones creating those disparities in ownership before Week 10, during Week 10, and after Week 10.

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8 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Deadbeat owners wouldn't be the ones creating those disparities in ownership before Week 10, during Week 10, and after Week 10.

Probably not although it can contribute as those leagues more or less become 8-10 teamers making it easier to drop and re-add assets 

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15 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Most advanced owners won't tie up two roster slots to hold a second defense.

Across all Yahoo leagues, the BAL DST was 87% owned in Week 9.  In their bye week, Week 10, the BAL DST was 67% owned.  So out of every three typical leagues, there were 12 owners who had a chance to pick them up after their bye week, per Axe Elf's advice.

It was for those 12 owners that Axe Elf toils.

And in fact, many of them benefitted from the suggestion, as by Week 11, the BAL DST was 93% rostered, so for that 26% of you out there who profited from the wisdom of the Elf--you're welcome!

Do you think Baltimore D/ST owners should have held on to them during their bye?

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1 hour ago, TimHauck said:

Do you think Baltimore D/ST owners should have held on to them during their bye?

Given that they are the #1 DST for Weeks 11-17, there would have certainly been more motivation to do so than for your typical streamer, although the makeup of each individual team would ultimately decide how much roster flexibility they have.

If I had the BAL DST and I had to put someone on IR in Week 10, I probably would have picked up a bye week DST instead of a marginal skill player and hung onto them.  But I wouldn't have dropped Rachaad White to pick up a bye week DST, no.

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Baltimore D put up a 6 in my league this week. Good Call!! The Elf, helping Fantasy teams lose since 2000...

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2 hours ago, jrokh said:

Good Call!!

Yes, I believe they will be among the leaders in my league over the past couple of weeks as well, pending the results of the last two games this week.

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Vs the mighty Broncos next.  Oh boy.  

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Looking at FFToday for the week the Ravens scored 6 points, only nine teams scored more.  

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Through 2 weeks:

Fantasy Football Leaders Weeks 11 to 12 - DST | FantasyPros
RANK
TEAM
POINTS
GAMES
AVG
1 Washington Commanders 26.0 2 13.0
1 San Francisco 49ers 26.0 2 13.0
3 Baltimore Ravens 22.0 2 11.0
4 Carolina Panthers 20.0 2 10.0
4 Dallas Cowboys 20.0 2 10.0
4 Kansas City Chiefs 20.0 2 10.0
7 New England Patriots 19.0 2 9.5
8 New York Jets 18.0 2 9.0
8 Miami Dolphins 18.0 1 18.0
10 Detroit Lions 15.0 2 7.5
10 Atlanta Falcons 15.0 2 7.5
12 Philadelphia Eagles 13.0 2 6.5
12 Buffalo Bills 13.0 2 6.5

Which would YOU rather have?

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4 hours ago, weepaws said:

Looking at FFToday for the week the Ravens scored 6 points, only nine teams scored more.  

That can't be right...unless the scoring is weird:

The standard scoring leagues had the Ravens scoring 5 points- giving up 28 points, having 4 sacks and 1 fumble recovery. I have ahead of them:

Miami, SF, KC, Carolina, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Buffalo, the Jets, Houston, Washington, TB, LV, Philadelphia, then 5 teams at 5 points which includes Baltimore. So I guess- maybe tied for 14th. 

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I just looked again at FFToday def scoring, they show the Ravens with six points behind nine teams a bunch of teams tied with seven points.  So Ravens might not have been great l but still a top ten def.  

Next week they play the Broncos, that’s going to be a big points day for the Ravens def imo.  

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On 11/24/2022 at 12:05 AM, easilyscan said:

My arch rival just dropped the Ravens to pick up the fish. 

Very astute move by my rival.

Fish 27 pts

Bird 5 pts

 

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21 minutes ago, easilyscan said:

Very astute move by my rival.

Fish 27 pts

Bird 5 pts

 

Streaming a Def is still the best way to go. I’m glad most don’t , more available weekly for me. 

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