Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Fumbleweed

Looking Ahead to Redrafts 2023: First Four Rounds

Recommended Posts

This is something I like to post on site in early January and then update it every few weeks for a couple of months. The first edition assumes minimal team changes for the following players (which isn't realistic) and does not include potential rookies. This is just a glimpse of what a redraft (non-PPR) might look like for 2023 based upon what is known today. It is meant to generate some discussion, so feel free to disagree and/or offer up alternative choices. QBs are also valued a little higher by me based on some of the scoring systems I play being QB-friendly. 

Round One:

1. Justin Jefferson
2. Christian McCaffrey
3. Austin Ekeler
4. Tyreek Hill
5. Derrick Henry
6. Nick Chubb
7. Ja'Marr Chase 
8. Travis Kelce
9. Saquon Barkley
10. Josh Jacobs
11. Davante Adams
12. Jonathan Taylor 

Round Two:

13. Cooper Kupp
14. Travis Etienne
15. Josh Allen
16. Stefon Diggs
17. Kenneth Walker
18. Patrick Mahomes
19. Tony Pollard
20. Jalen Hurts
21. A.J. Brown
22. CeeDee Lamb
23. Najee Harris
24. Joe Mixon

Round Three:

25. Miles Sanders
26. Amon-Ra St. Brown
27. Breece Hall
28. Aaron Jones
29. Jaylen Waddle
30. Joe Burrow
31. Dalvin Cook
32. Amari Cooper
33. George Kittle
34. Alvin Kamara
35. D.K. Metcalf
36. Javonte Williams

Round Four:

37. Tee Higgins
38. DeAndre Hopkins
39. Rhamondre Stevenson
40. Dameon Pierce
41. Mike Evans
42. DeVonta Smith
43. Jamaal Williams
44. Justin Herbert
45. Ezekiel Elliott
46. Tyler Lockett
47. Deebo Samuel
48. Tyler Allgeier

Honorable mention: Trevor Lawrence, Lamar Jackson, Cam Akers, J.K. Dobbins, Chrstian Kirk, Mark Andrews


Thoughts??

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know that Jefferson had a lot of yards, but in a non ppr I wouldn’t take him first , he scored 8 tds.  

I would go rb with that very first pick in a non ppr , I wouldn’t look at wr unless I was drafting in the bottom half of the first round. 

A TE in the first round, no no no. 

3 QBs in the second round, oh I would be building up some great depth at rb and wr in this league.  

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, weepaws said:

I know that Jefferson had a lot of yards, but in a non ppr I wouldn’t take him first , he scored 8 tds.  

I would go rb with that very first pick in a non ppr , I wouldn’t look at unless I was drafting in the bottom half of the first round. 

A TE in the first round, no no no. 

3 QBs in the second round, oh I would be building up some great depth at rb and wr in this league.  

 

These are hard and fast absolutes that you are stating, but fantasy football is like shifting sand. Are any of the unpredictable RBs near the top of the list worth picking over Jefferson who is a sure thing? I think not. In a PPR, I would take both McCaffrey and Ekeler over Jefferson, but not in a non-PPR. And not taking a tight end in the first round is too generalized of a rule. I agree, unless that tight end is Travis Kelce. As for taking QBs in the second round, we're talking guys who outscored other starting QBs this season by 5-7 points a game. That's a gap. Again, the value of a sure thing or near a sure thing is pretty high for me. Most of the top RBs scare me next year as they all carry baggage and question marks. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don’t have Etienne in my top 8 in non ppr.  

Pollard is a interesting pick in the 2nd round, he has the ability from what we’ve all seen, but what team will he be on.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, Fumbleweed said:

These are hard and fast absolutes that you are stating, but fantasy football is like shifting sand. Are any of the unpredictable RBs near the top of the list worth picking over Jefferson who is a sure thing? I think not. In a PPR, I would take both McCaffrey and Ekeler over Jefferson, but not in a non-PPR. And not taking a tight end in the first round is too generalized of a rule. I agree, unless that tight end is Travis Kelce. As for taking QBs in the second round, we're talking guys who outscored other starting QBs this season by 5-7 points a game. That's a gap. Again, the value of a sure thing or near a sure thing is pretty high for me. Most of the top RBs scare me next year as they all carry baggage and question marks. 

But I can draft Kupp who by avg was the number one wr again in non ppr, and if I can pick him up in the 2nd round or Adams or Chase or Brown, I’m going rb early first round , and praying that some one takes Kelce in the first or second round, and that three or four qbs go in the second.  

Im getting a top rb and wr non ppr, I’m on my way.  

Also thank you for doing this every January and throughout most of the early offseason.  

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tony Pollard at 19 :o

I guess we're assuming Dallas can afford to resign him? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, nobody said:

Tony Pollard at 19 :o

I guess we're assuming Dallas can afford to resign him? 

The Cowboys RB situation is gonna be very interesting, because this up coming season is the first one where they can really cut Zeke, and he's not close to justifying his contract at this point. They may sign Pollard at a discount, but he probably wants to get paid

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mahomes the first QB in the middle of the 2nd round...

I can't say that's too far off, but most drafts it seems like there's always a QB in the first round.

I can't tell you who it would be.

QB is really gonna be interesting this coming season.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Swift Godwin and olave may crack that list

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

TJ Hockenson maybe should be honorable mention.

No David Montgomery?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Rd 3.  J Williams you don’t think that’s a little high based on his injury. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, taco breath said:

Swift Godwin and olave may crack that list

With Godwin & Olave, knowing the QB will be important.  Also, the coach in Tampa.  If Brady leaves, Godwin isn't very valuable anymore because they'll be a very conservative offense.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is D Samuel really worthy of a 4th rd pick in non ppr? I don’t think so. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, weepaws said:

Rd 3.  J Williams you don’t think that’s a little high based on his injury. 

 

I agree.  I would not have ranked him THAT high.   too unproven.

though he flashed in the green bay game.  I think the play was called back.    but in the end I've seen enough to agree he should be on peoples radar.

I just dont think hes a guy you should be taking in the first 3-4 rounds.   Not yet anyhow.

it would not surprise me if hes taken at that spot the following year.  but not this year.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

With Godwin & Olave, knowing the QB will be important.  Also, the coach in Tampa.  If Brady leaves, Godwin isn't very valuable anymore because they'll be a very conservative offense.

usually that is the case.

doesnt matter how good the WR is.  if the QB sucks, he wont put up numbers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The first round RBs seem old.  I'd rather take my chances on one of the younger backs listed in round 4.  Maybe this is the year to wait on RB.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

usually that is the case.

doesnt matter how good the WR is.  if the QB sucks, he wont put up numbers.

True, but I think the coach would be the bigger impact.  Even if they get solid QB play (say Derek Carr), the existence of Evans, Gage, White, & Otton will finally make the people in the "too many mouth's to feed" camp correct.  As far back as 2019, people were talking down Evans and Godwin because of "too many mouth's to feed", no taking into the account of the aggressive offense.  They ignored the likelihood of Tampa throwing the ball over 600 times.  Well, those people will finally be right, if Brady is gone.  As mentioned, even if they bring in Carr, Bowles' offense will NOT be Bruce Arians' offense.  Tampa will not throw the ball 700 times next year, it'll probably be closer to the league average, like in the 550 to 575 range.

Bowles is a terrible head coach.  Tampa won't be scoring a lot, nor will they be throwing a lot.  The only thing they'll be doing a lot of, is losing.  As of right now, with the assumption that Bowles will be in Tampa and Brady won't, I wouldn't take any Tampa skill position player before the 7th round.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 hours ago, nobody said:

Tony Pollard at 19 :o

I guess we're assuming Dallas can afford to resign him? 

Correct. This ranking is based on Dallas resigning him and either restructuring Zeke's contract or cutting him altogether. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, taco breath said:

Swift Godwin and olave may crack that list

Swift is such a dilemma. He simply can't stay healthy. I agree he'll likely go in the top four rounds in August if he's healthy at that time, but how long can you count on him? Round Five is where I begin looking at high risk/high reward players like Swift. Like someone else said, Olave and Godwin's values rise and fall based on QB. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, weepaws said:

Rd 3.  J Williams you don’t think that’s a little high based on his injury. 

 

I don't. No competition for carries at the moment. That alone should make him a top 15-20 RB. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, weepaws said:

Is D Samuel really worthy of a 4th rd pick in non ppr? I don’t think so. 

You may be right here. I wrestled with what to do with Deebo. There are a lot of mouths to feed in SF. I penciled him in here with some reservation. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

True, but I think the coach would be the bigger impact.  Even if they get solid QB play (say Derek Carr), the existence of Evans, Gage, White, & Otton will finally make the people in the "too many mouth's to feed" camp correct.  As far back as 2019, people were talking down Evans and Godwin because of "too many mouth's to feed", no taking into the account of the aggressive offense.  They ignored the likelihood of Tampa throwing the ball over 600 times.  Well, those people will finally be right, if Brady is gone.  As mentioned, even if they bring in Carr, Bowles' offense will NOT be Bruce Arians' offense.  Tampa will not throw the ball 700 times next year, it'll probably be closer to the league average, like in the 550 to 575 range.

Bowles is a terrible head coach.  Tampa won't be scoring a lot, nor will they be throwing a lot.  The only thing they'll be doing a lot of, is losing.  As of right now, with the assumption that Bowles will be in Tampa and Brady won't, I wouldn't take any Tampa skill position player before the 7th round.

ariens left the coaching job and took a management job because brady didnt want him.  but if Brady leaves, does Ariens return?   its possible.

I'd rather have him as a coach

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Ray_T said:

ariens left the coaching job and took a management job because brady didnt want him.  but if Brady leaves, does Ariens return?   its possible.

I'd rather have him as a coach

I hope not.  He's terrible too.  This team only won because of talent.  Injuries happen and they're done.  Last year, if either Godwin didn't get hurt or Brown go off the deep end, they win the Super Bowl again.  If you have a good coach and system, you can over come a few injuries, but not with Arians or his system.  It's 100% dependent on the pass.  With it operating at like 85%, you're playing with fire.

I'd prefer that all of them leave.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I hope not.  He's terrible too.  This team only won because of talent.  Injuries happen and they're done.  Last year, if either Godwin didn't get hurt or Brown go off the deep end, they win the Super Bowl again.  If you have a good coach and system, you can over come a few injuries, but not with Arians or his system.  It's 100% dependent on the pass.  With it operating at like 85%, you're playing with fire.

I'd prefer that all of them leave.

maybe so, but I feel hes better than the coach they have there now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

maybe so, but I feel hes better than the coach they have there now.

That much is true, yes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tyrek a  full round ahead of Diggs jumps out at me

I actually like Diggs a bit better going into 2023.  Great QB throwing him the ball and Tua's future is a bit up in the air with the concussions.

Miles Sanders at the top of round 3 is a huge reach 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

4th rd # 43.  J Williams he scored 13tds on his previous five seasons before the 2022 season.  

Taking him the 4th rd I think would be a chancy pick.  To many variables trusting J Williams with that rich of a pick imo.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, e-factor said:

Tyrek a  full round ahead of Diggs jumps out at me

I actually like Diggs a bit better going into 2023.  Great QB throwing him the ball and Tua's future is a bit up in the air with the concussions.

Miles Sanders at the top of round 3 is a huge reach 

 

I agree, also makes my point , of taking a rb in the first round non ppr league.  Lots of very good, and very productive WRs still available in rd 2.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, weepaws said:

I agree, also makes my point , of taking a rb in the first round non ppr league.  Lots of very good, and very productive WRs still available in rd 2.   

It may be time for you to post your top 48 :)

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh no it’s not, to many variables for me in January to post even a top 12, I take time away from rankings until April, then I start to work on my personal rankings before the draft, and continue working on them throughout the summer.  

Im simply enjoying the work you have done, and doing what was asked, any thoughts? 

But I can guarantee you this , not one TE or Qb will be on my top 48, and my first 6 or so picks in a non ppr would be Rbs.   

Next season I’m only going to participate in two leagues, 14 team half ppr, and 14 team ppr. 

But I’ll keep posting my thoughts about your top 48.  

Thanks.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Zeke at # 45   He had his worst nfl season ever, but he did score 12 tds, Pollard is going to be the Cowboys rb1 next season if he stays with them, but even if he doesn’t, I would have a tough time placing the Zeke at # 45.  

3.8 rush avg his worst season in the passing , and worst season he’s had in rushing yards.  

I think his time as a rb1 on a team is done.   Imo.  

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/14/2023 at 4:47 PM, weepaws said:

Im simply enjoying the work you have done, and doing what was asked, any thoughts? 

But I can guarantee you this , not one TE or Qb will be on my top 48, and my first 6 or so picks in a non ppr would be Rbs.   

Next season I’m only going to participate in two leagues, 14 team half ppr, and 14 team ppr. 

But I’ll keep posting my thoughts about your top 48.  

Thanks.  

Much appreciated. My point was that until you start to actually put people in place, it's easy to make general statements like " I wouldn't take a QB here" or "so and so is too high/too low". 

When you really sit down and try to hammer out a top 48, it's harder than one might think who is just glancing stuff over to see what looks on the surface to be out of place. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

its true.   there are a lot of people who will go on and criticize your picks.

I tend to respect the people who go out and put their own picks up and make it public because those people often take a lot of heat for their predictions.

and so many of those who criticize those picks will NEVER put their own picks out there.

I do put my picks out there from time to time but usually closer to the start of the season when I know a bit more about whats happening but posts like this (even if I dont always agree with them) tell me what some others are thinking and that can be helpful.

either way, thanks for the thread.   gives us all something to talk about too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

CEH is gone.   Pacheco will get some attention being the focus back in the KC offense. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, cmh6476 said:

CEH is gone.   Pacheco will get some attention being the focus back in the KC offense. 

yeah, the kids got potential.

hopefully it doesnt go to his head.  I've seen guys have a good Rookie campain and then come to camp either unprepared or out of shape in year 2 and fall flat on their face.

sadly the character side of fantasy is harder to navigate.   thats where speaking to homers can come in handy.  they occasionally see or hear stuff related to character that doesnt really get covered in the press.

thats why I often defer to the local homer with respect to certain things.   

for example I would not expect many people to know more about the behind the scenes goings on with the Bucs than TBay.   Thats his team, and his hometown.  he likely sees and hears more his team than the vast majority of us do.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Ray_T said:

yeah, the kids got potential.

hopefully it doesnt go to his head.  I've seen guys have a good Rookie campain and then come to camp either unprepared or out of shape in year 2 and fall flat on their face.

sadly the character side of fantasy is harder to navigate.   thats where speaking to homers can come in handy.  they occasionally see or hear stuff related to character that doesnt really get covered in the press.

thats why I often defer to the local homer with respect to certain things.   

for example I would not expect many people to know more about the behind the scenes goings on with the Bucs than TBay.   Thats his team, and his hometown.  he likely sees and hears more his team than the vast majority of us do.

Yeah i used to start threads just asking people to tell what they know about the team they follow.   I always found that info super informative.   I don't care as much anymore to write five paragraphs worth of stuff on a write up for you guys 😅

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, cmh6476 said:

CEH is gone.   Pacheco will get some attention being the focus back in the KC offense. 

Just speaking about Rbs , and you being the KC guru, where you rank him half ppr, top 12, top 24?  

Only asking to get your feed back.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Fumbleweed said:

Much appreciated. My point was that until you start to actually put people in place, it's easy to make general statements like " I wouldn't take a QB here" or "so and so is too high/too low". 

When you really sit down and try to hammer out a top 48, it's harder than one might think who is just glancing stuff over to see what looks on the surface to be out of place. 

True it’s hard, but I don’t rank then like that.  I rank per position.  

Qbs and Te I can easily say I won’t be drafting any until the double digit rounds. I don’t even create a cheat sheet for my drafts for the Qb and Te slot until about two days or so before my draft.  

Now I’m not mocking your rankings, and like I said I enjoy the fact that you come out with them, makes for conversation, but I’m just posting my thoughts.  

I’ll stop for now , I’ll respond more in April when I start my own top rb and wr rankings.  

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Ray_T said:

its true.   there are a lot of people who will go on and criticize your picks.

I tend to respect the people who go out and put their own picks up and make it public because those people often take a lot of heat for their predictions.

and so many of those who criticize those picks will NEVER put their own picks out there.

I do put my picks out there from time to time but usually closer to the start of the season when I know a bit more about whats happening but posts like this (even if I dont always agree with them) tell me what some others are thinking and that can be helpful.

either way, thanks for the thread.   gives us all something to talk about too.

Yea I wasn’t criticizing the OP picks, I was posting thoughts about them, it’s what the OP asked for.  Come April I’ll post my top 12 Rbs and WRs like I always do.  

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Just speaking about Rbs , and you being the KC guru, where you rank him half ppr, top 12, top 24?  

Only asking to get your feed back.  

I think it's way too early to say.   The Chiefs have rumored to have put feelers out on ceh, but isn't this the last year of his rookie deal?  And McKinnon is an UFA next year.   So if he's the sole lead back with a couple new guys backing him up, I think that's a higher ceiling than them bringing back McKinnon which cuts into his value. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×