***The 149th Running of the Kentucky Derby***

[GobbleDog 976]

5 hours ago, Horseman said:

Maximum Security disqualification in 2019 to kick off this losing favorites was the worst bad beat of my life.  Had 5K+ of winning tickets, taking selfies in the stands, and they announce it's contested.  After the disqualification went to get a beer and the guy in line behind me won big because of it.  I wanted to punch him in the face.

My 2019 Kentucky Derby winner pick - Maximum Security

Glad the universe doesn't just hate me.

 

[BeenHereBefore 1,452]

Well fellows since it's technically race day it;s time to say who you are betting on. I threw a $20 bet on Angel of Empire and may make a few more bets. But that is who I'm going with now. Who you taking to win and etc. ?

[BeenHereBefore 1,452]

6 hours ago, Pimpadeaux said:

Mandarin Hero is the fastest horse in this field, but he's not in a great starting position.

You sold me and will throw $2 on him to win.

[Mike Honcho 5,085]

On 5/4/2023 at 11:00 AM, GobbleDog said:

1) Hit Show  34-1                            11) Disarm  31-1

2) Verifying   22-1                           12) Jace's Road 37-1

3) Two Phil's  8-1                           13) Sun Thunder 32-1

4) Confidence Game   17-1            14) Angel Of Empire   5-1

5) Tapit Trice   5-1                            15) Forte   4.5-1 Scratch

6) Kingsbarns  12-1                          16) Raise Cain 36-1

7) Reincarnate   15-1                      17) Derma Sotogake   8-1

8)) Mage   18-1                                 18) Rocket Can   34-1

9) Skinner   Scratch                        19) Lord Miles Scratch

10) Practical Move Scratch          20) Continuar Scratch

                                                             21) Cyclone Mischief 45-1

                                                             22) Mandarin Hero 29-1

                                                              23) King Russell 44-1

"The sun shines bright on My Old Kentucky Home." 

Another one bites the dust, favorite Forte scratched. 

[Horseman 2,353]

Race 6 - Baby Yoda 1/2/3 w/p/s and key 3 with 2/6/7

[GobbleDog 976]

Practical Move and now Forte scratched - the two most talented horses aren't running and the remaining 18 horses haven't proven much. No outcome shocks now - horses from cheapo-prep races; Verifying overcomes dreaded #2 spot; Derma Sotogake wins Japs first Derby; monster longshot hits.

The trend of Derby winners coming from top 2 of the five major preps is certainly in jeopardy with 3 winners now scratched.

I'm sticking with it anyway. The remaining winners are Tapit Trice (Bluegrass) and Angel of Empire (Arkansas). Angel of Empire won a Grade 2 against a decent field pulling off upset at 14-1. Then Grade 1 Arkansas against a stacked field pulling off another upset at 5-1 and beating a few Derby horses including King Russell, Reincarnate, Rocket Can (who was the 3-1 favorite). Overall, I think Angel of Empire has a better resume against better competition.

Betting Empire $10 win, $10 place, $10 show and a $0.50 trifecta key bets totaling $10 over a few longshots...

14 / 3, 5, 11, 17, 18 / 3, 5, 11, 17, 18

Angel of Empire (14), Two Phil's (3), Tapit Trice (5), Disarm (11), Derma Sotogake (17), Rocket Can (18)

Good luck gentlemen.  Happy Derby Day!

 

 

[BeenHereBefore 1,452]

I won $47 on Webslinger.

[Beaker15 233]

Kingsbarns is going to win this

[BufordT 426]

Horse dying left and right since Churchill Downs opened up.  C'mon trainers, smarten up.

I have exactas  1,6/all & all/1,6.

[BeenHereBefore 1,452]

I like Tejano Twist in this next one, good horse and has Cinco De Mayo vibes.

[bostonlager 2,664]

Two Phil’s Mickelsons 12-1 

 

I know nothing about ponies. Just wagering for some action. 

[GobbleDog 976]

3 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

Two Phil’s Mickelsons 12-1 

I know nothing about ponies. Just wagering for some action. 

Nice horse.... seen it all. Grade 1, 2, and three Grade 3's. Not the highest speed figures, but he's known as this year's wise guy horse.

[BeenHereBefore 1,452]

30 minutes ago, BeenHereBefore said:

I like Tejano Twist in this next one, good horse and has Cinco De Mayo vibes.

I almost hit a exacta with him and Cody. At least he showed.

[BeenHereBefore 1,452]

Going with Ocean Atlantique 14- 1 in this next one. Win & Show.

[BeenHereBefore 1,452]

Tom Brady crap on now, time to cut the grass.

[Gepetto 1,286]

On 5/4/2023 at 11:33 AM, weepaws said:

How many of those horses do you think they might find dead before the race.  

2 euthanized this week.  5 dealing with injuries - most ever at a Kentucky Derby.

[Gepetto 1,286]

Angel of Empire is a great great name.

[GobbleDog 976]

This guy is awesome.

 

[Horseman 2,353]

Mattress guy 1.2 million on AoE.  

$5-$10-$15 w/p/s on #14

$5 Exacta box 2,5,14

$1 Tri key box 14/2,3,5,17

[Mike Honcho 5,085]

W - Derma Sotogake

P - Two Phil's

S  - Disarm

Also, I know nothing about horse racing.

 

[Alias Detective 1,388]

AofE exacta box with the 2 Jap horses.

14, 17, 22

Good,Luck!

[Alias Detective 1,388]

26 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Mattress guy 1.2 million on AoE.  

$5-$10-$15 w/p/s on #14

$5 Exacta box 2,5,14

$1 Tri key box 14/2,3,5,17

Just my feeling, place and show bets on the fav are garbage in that the payout versus the risk sucks. Good luck.

[GobbleDog 976]

11 minutes ago, Alias Detective said:

Just my feeling, place and show bets on the fav are garbage in that the payout versus the risk sucks. Good luck.

Derby fav hit the board in 9 of last 10.

[Alias Detective 1,388]

Ok.  Fave is 4-1 so the pay may more than 10% anyway.

[Alias Detective 1,388]

I just don’t like betting favorites at 50 to one, just in case is all.

[Mike Honcho 5,085]

28 minutes ago, Mike Honcho said:

W - Derma Sotogake

P - Two Phil's

S  - Disarm

Also, I know nothing about horse racing.

 

I got the 2nd place horse right, what do I get!!!!

[Gepetto 1,286]

8, 3, 14, 11 I think was the result

[bostonlager 2,664]

I had  2 Phil’s and Angela empire both WPS. Did I at least break even?

[Alias Detective 1,388]

Show paid a hair over even money. +120 I think.

[GobbleDog 976]

1 minute ago, Gepetto said:

8, 3, 14, 11 I think was the result

I think so.  Mage beat the Apollo Curse.  I can't complain Angel of Empire had a great chance to run down Mage and Two Phill's in the final stretch, but couldn't do it. Perhaps jockey waited too late to make move.

At least the top 2 horses from 5 major preps theory held true, as Mage took 2nd in Florida Derby. And chalk up another victory for the Florida Derby/Santa Anita Derby domination amongst Kentucky winners.

[Gepetto 1,286]

That was a great race.

[Gepetto 1,286]

3 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

I think so.  Mage beat the Apollo Curse.  I can't complain Angel of Empire had a great chance to run down Mage and Two Phill's in the final stretch, but couldn't do it. Perhaps jockey waited too late to make move.

At least the top 2 horses from 5 major preps theory held true, as Mage took 2nd in Florida Derby. And chalk up another victory for the Florida Derby/Santa Anita Derby domination amongst Kentucky winners.

I agree.

[GobbleDog 976]

                                  Win             Place           Show

#8 Mage                   $32.42      $14.58         $9.08

#3  Two Phil's                               $10.44       $6.52

#14 Angel of Empire                                        $4.70

#11 Disarm

#1 Hit Show

....................................................................................

$2 Exacta               $330.44

$1Trifecta              $982.36

$1 Superfecta       $15,643.65

[TommyGavin 790]

Yeah that didn’t do me well. Mage was not in any of my bets. AOE show kept me from losing all. 

[BeenHereBefore 1,452]

In Race 13 I like Seeking Unity 12-1 now. Win & Show.

[Horseman 2,353]

6 hours ago, Alias Detective said:

Just my feeling, place and show bets on the fav are garbage in that the payout versus the risk sucks. Good luck.

Well, considering the outcome it actually reduced risk being the only thing that paid.  

[Gepetto 1,286]

I'd say betting the favorite to show often pays out.

[Alias Detective 1,388]

3 hours ago, Gepetto said:

I'd say betting the favorite to show often pays out.

Ugh, yes, it often hits but the odds suck when a favorite doesn’t win or come in second but 3rd.  It’s not hard to comprehend.

 

I don’t like risking $2 to win $2.20 or even $2.50 but you do you.

[GobbleDog 976]

6 hours ago, Alias Detective said:

I don’t like risking $2 to win $2.20 or even $2.50 but you do you.

The Kentucky Derby is the only race you can double your money betting show on the dead favorite. During the '13 to '18 stretch of the favorite winning every year, the show money was usually about $4.00+.

Last year the favorite took 2nd and show money paid $5.20. This year, favorite took 3rd and got $4.70.

[Gepetto 1,286]

7 hours ago, Alias Detective said:

Ugh, yes, it often hits but the odds suck when a favorite doesn’t win or come in second but 3rd.  It’s not hard to comprehend.

 

I don’t like risking $2 to win $2.20 or even $2.50 but you do you.

I don't either, it was just a comment.