Bounceback Players

[JagFan 103]

Interesting read.  Hard to take this guy serious with the exclusion of Ridley.

[weepaws 2,529]

Kupp is going to bounce back from his injury that caused him to miss half of last season. He’s going to be the number one scoring Wr this next season.  

 

[polecatt 405]

I think Deshaun Watson has a big bounce back season

[Ray_T 609]

3 hours ago, polecatt said:

I think Deshaun Watson has a big bounce back season

on the field or in the massage room?

[JagFan 103]

8 hours ago, polecatt said:

I think Deshaun Watson has a big bounce back season

Maybe, but I’m not expecting that to happen.  I expect Cle to lean on Chubb as usual, and that WR core isn’t inspiring.

For what it’s worth, I’m very high on Chubb this year.  Hunt is gone, and Watson will keep drives alive.  I could easily see Chubb finish as RB1.

[LaChup 165]

If Deshaun decides to visit the massage parlors, he better not take Chubb with him.

[weepaws 2,529]

He can’t take Johnson, he’s now with the Jags.  

 

[weepaws 2,529]

If D Waller can stay healthy, big if, he could avg double digit half ppr ff points, could even be #2 behind the kid with KC.  

[Showboat 146]

Russ?

[wolves111 70]

On 6/20/2023 at 4:37 AM, weepaws said:

Kupp is going to bounce back from his injury that caused him to miss half of last season. He’s going to be the number one scoring Wr this next season.  

 

He's 30 years old coming off ankle surgery. His QB is 35 missed, the last seven games last season with elbow, concussion, and spinal cord contusion. 

Not liking the odds of Kupp being the #1 WR.

[weepaws 2,529]

21 minutes ago, wolves111 said:

He's 30 years old coming off ankle surgery. His QB is 35 missed, the last seven games last season with elbow, concussion, and spinal cord contusion. 

Not liking the odds of Kupp being the #1 WR.

That’s okay.  

Thanks. 

[Ray_T 609]

On 6/22/2023 at 10:56 AM, wolves111 said:

He's 30 years old coming off ankle surgery. His QB is 35 missed, the last seven games last season with elbow, concussion, and spinal cord contusion. 

Not liking the odds of Kupp being the #1 WR.

there are a lot of what ifs.   for sure.   and you shouldnt draft these guys without doing some research to see if you can get some insight into where they are at

if healthy, hes a good pickup.

the unknown at this point is where both players are in terms of their health.   I'm not going to pretend I know.  I have yet to do the research on this but I will be looking into this at some point.    good news is..... given the above noted situation you likely are not having to pay full price for either player.     so if healthy they have a chance of outperforming their ADP. 

once again that is a very big IF.   

all I am saying is I wouldnt go putting either player on my DND list just yet.   There is a lot of time between now and week 1 of the regular season.

[wolves111 70]

12 hours ago, Ray_T said:

there are a lot of what ifs.   for sure.   and you shouldnt draft these guys without doing some research to see if you can get some insight into where they are at

if healthy, hes a good pickup.

the unknown at this point is where both players are in terms of their health.   I'm not going to pretend I know.  I have yet to do the research on this but I will be looking into this at some point.    good news is..... given the above noted situation you likely are not having to pay full price for either player.     so if healthy they have a chance of outperforming their ADP. 

once again that is a very big IF.   

all I am saying is I wouldnt go putting either player on my DND list just yet.   There is a lot of time between now and week 1 of the regular season.

All true. However, weepaws has emphatically predicted Kupp will be the #1 scoring wr. Age and injury history alone would indicate that's a reach.

[Ray_T 609]

4 hours ago, wolves111 said:

All true. However, weepaws has emphatically predicted Kupp will be the #1 scoring wr. Age and injury history alone would indicate that's a reach.

well, for whatever reason he maybe doesnt think the injuries will be a factor.   thats his right.   I personally always adjust all my ratings based on potential for injury and if I see a ranking that doesnt take enough of this into account I'll just adjust the ranking.

at the end of the day thinking a WR will be the #1 WR in pro football is different than drafting him as the #1 WR in pro football.

I would suggest even if you are 100% positive he will be the best WR you draft him just earlier than his ADP.   and if hes going in the third round you draft him in the second round.

you dont draft him in round 1 if you think there is a good chance hes still on the board in round 2.  You dont generally win drafts that way.

to that end because of the injury situation I'm guessing his ADP is likely on the cusp of WR1/WR2.   possibly a bit lower even.    keep in mind this is just a guess.  I have not checked the ADP rankings yet this year.    and I would further suggest this ADP will fluctuate up and down based on news of the health of both him and Stafford.

usually guys on the wr1/wr2 cusp end up going late in round 3.     possibly early in round 4 but because of his history/reputation he may go a little higher. (people do sometimes pay for the name)

so depending where you draft you may grab him early in round 3 if you wanna make sure you get him.   late in round 2 might be pushing it given the unknowns.  I usually dont push the envelope on guys coming back from injury.  if their adp arrives and I can get them later than their ADP I will consider it (unless a better option is available)

but thats how I'd approach the problem.  this strategy isnt for everyone and I fully admit this.  but I'm a bit more injury averse than most.   a guy in the first 3-4 rounds getting hurt can really put your team behind the 8 ball unless you really nail some good picks later in the draft.   I generally do well in the later rounds but that isnt a given.

 

[weepaws 2,529]

I wouldn’t draft Kupp , I would pass on him, I hope that indeed happens, so I can draft a rd one rb, and than draft a rd one wr in the second rd.   

Thanks.  

[AxeElf 787]

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

to that end because of the injury situation I'm guessing his ADP is likely on the cusp of WR1/WR2.   possibly a bit lower even.    keep in mind this is just a guess.  I have not checked the ADP rankings yet this year.    and I would further suggest this ADP will fluctuate up and down based on news of the health of both him and Stafford.

usually guys on the wr1/wr2 cusp end up going late in round 3.     possibly early in round 4 but because of his history/reputation he may go a little higher. (people do sometimes pay for the name)

You may be surprised to learn that Kupp is typically considered the WR3 this season, with an ADP at the Round 1/2 turn.

[Ray_T 609]

2 hours ago, AxeElf said:

You may be surprised to learn that Kupp is typically considered the WR3 this season, with an ADP at the Round 1/2 turn.

it feels like people are assuming he and Stafford will be fully healthy.   or they are overpaying for the name as I mentioned above.

that said I have not seen or heard the latest reports on the health of both players, but an ankle can be a bad injury for a WR.

that said I'm likely just as concerned about Stafford who was often injured early in his career.

unless he and Stafford both have a clean bill of health, he shouldnt be going that early.   Thats all I have to say about that.

[Showboat 146]

20 hours ago, Ray_T said:

it feels like people are assuming he and Stafford will be fully healthy.   or they are overpaying for the name as I mentioned above.

that said I have not seen or heard the latest reports on the health of both players, but an ankle can be a bad injury for a WR.

that said I'm likely just as concerned about Stafford who was often injured early in his career.

unless he and Stafford both have a clean bill of health, he shouldnt be going that early.   Thats all I have to say about that.

The thing is, it is always a gamble.  A clean bill of health often means nothing as team and player rarely admit to lingering impacts when healthy enough to not be on IR.  There is certainly value to be had if Kupp drops, the only question is when to pull the trigger.  It reminds me of the year Adrian Peterson was coming back from ACL.  He was essentially a DND for many as his injury occurred late the previous season.  I figured someone would take a shot on him in the 4th or 5th round (which was a little high for me), but he was still sitting there as a ridiculous value when I scooped him up in the 7th.  

[RareN64Dream 9]

Pretty sure, I won 2 out my 3 money league championships that year. Had Adrian on one after the injury.

[weepaws 2,529]

The best thing about ff in June is that if a player like Kupp isn’t ready to play come late August, I wouldn’t draft him at his current ADP.  I think Kupp will be back, and so will Stafford, even with a hurting Stafford, and a horrible oline last season, Kupp was the number one wr when he suffered his injury.  He’s going to be back on top this season.   

 

[Ray_T 609]

3 hours ago, RareN64Dream said:

Pretty sure, I won 2 out my 3 money league championships that year. Had Adrian on one after the injury.

yeah, but he wasnt still a first round pick.   it was the discount that made drafting him profitable.

6 hours ago, Showboat said:

The thing is, it is always a gamble.  A clean bill of health often means nothing as team and player rarely admit to lingering impacts when healthy enough to not be on IR.  There is certainly value to be had if Kupp drops, the only question is when to pull the trigger.  It reminds me of the year Adrian Peterson was coming back from ACL.  He was essentially a DND for many as his injury occurred late the previous season.  I figured someone would take a shot on him in the 4th or 5th round (which was a little high for me), but he was still sitting there as a ridiculous value when I scooped him up in the 7th.  

it is.

I dont mind a 3rd round gamble when the upside is very high but risking a first round pick (or an early 2nd) on a WR who may miss some time or whose QB may miss some time is really pushing it.

my rationale:  even if he plays, he doesnt likely put up consistent WR1 numbers if Stafford is injured.     and if he is injured he doesnt likely do it either.  he either underperforms or he doesnt play.   Not a great scenario really.

his upside is great I dont deny that at all.  But a low first round pick isnt fully accounting for the possible risks which are higher than normal.   There is also the natural risk of decline in stats for Stafford as he is now 35 years old as well.    That said, I'm more worried about the injurys than I am about this, but it needs to be factored in.

I'm not spending a first rounder on him or an early 2nd rounder given the current info that is available.    

if both are a full go at camp and the reports are saying they look good, I'd quickly move him up my board but right now I'd want to hold off on that first round or early 2nd round pick until we know a bit more.   the info you get (if you can actually get it) this time of year is not necessarily 100% reliable.   they may suggest both players are doing well when they may still be rehabbing the injury. 

[GobbleDog 829]

I keep getting Deebo Samuel in the 3rd round of mocks.  People are forgetting how electric he is. His YAC is other-worldly.

[Ray_T 609]

1 hour ago, GobbleDog said:

I keep getting Deebo Samuel in the 3rd round of mocks.  People are forgetting how electric he is. His YAC is other-worldly.

Everybody loved him when he was lined up as a RB a fair bit of the time.  his numbers jumped off the page.

But McCaffrey took nearly all the run opportunities and he catches a lot of passes that Deebo would have previously received.   This combined with a year where the QB changed really contributed to a bad year for him.   I do think that he is a good bounceback candidate but I cant see him putting together another season like what he did in 2021.

If healthy I'd pencil him in for around 1000 yards receiving.  maybe 100-200 yards rushing and 6-8 total TD.

for my money I think he puts up similar numbers to Aiyuk (plus the rushing yards) but Aiyuk likely can be had likely 2-3 rounds later in the draft.

[GobbleDog 829]

56 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

for my money I think he puts up similar numbers to Aiyuk (plus the rushing yards) but Aiyuk likely can be had likely 2-3 rounds later in the draft.

I think the higher price tag is worth the talent discrepancy.

[AxeElf 787]

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

for my money I think he puts up similar numbers to Aiyuk (plus the rushing yards) but Aiyuk likely can be had likely 2-3 rounds later in the draft.

Deebo is a bounceback candidate and a value at his current ADP, but Aiyuk is a CRAZY value at his current ADP (78.40!)  There aren't a lot of top 15 WRs who can be had that late, and top 15 last year could well translate into borderline WR1 territory this season.

But we can't really call Aiyuk a "bounceback" player; just an ascending player.

[Ray_T 609]

1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

Deebo is a bounceback candidate and a value at his current ADP, but Aiyuk is a CRAZY value at his current ADP (78.40!)  There aren't a lot of top 15 WRs who can be had that late, and top 15 last year could well translate into borderline WR1 territory this season.

But we can't really call Aiyuk a "bounceback" player; just an ascending player.

I wouldnt be surprised to see his ADP rise throughout the pre season but I do think hes a fantastic buy at the ADP as it stands today.

[weepaws 2,529]

Would wait and take Aiyuk. 

[Showboat 146]

On 6/25/2023 at 7:51 PM, Ray_T said:

yeah, but he wasnt still a first round pick.   it was the discount that made drafting him profitable.

it is.

I dont mind a 3rd round gamble when the upside is very high but risking a first round pick (or an early 2nd) on a WR who may miss some time or whose QB may miss some time is really pushing it.

my rationale:  even if he plays, he doesnt likely put up consistent WR1 numbers if Stafford is injured.     and if he is injured he doesnt likely do it either.  he either underperforms or he doesnt play.   Not a great scenario really.

his upside is great I dont deny that at all.  But a low first round pick isnt fully accounting for the possible risks which are higher than normal.   There is also the natural risk of decline in stats for Stafford as he is now 35 years old as well.    That said, I'm more worried about the injurys than I am about this, but it needs to be factored in.

I'm not spending a first rounder on him or an early 2nd rounder given the current info that is available.    

if both are a full go at camp and the reports are saying they look good, I'd quickly move him up my board but right now I'd want to hold off on that first round or early 2nd round pick until we know a bit more.   the info you get (if you can actually get it) this time of year is not necessarily 100% reliable.   they may suggest both players are doing well when they may still be rehabbing the injury. 

Everything you say makes perfect sense.  I suspect that neither Kupp nor Stafford will see much pre-season action and even if camp reports are good I'd still be leery.  I'd guess that in most leagues someone will spend a second or even a late first on him.  So if you are sold on him, that's probably what it will take.  If you are a value drafter, I think waiting until the third round is the right call but you have to be able to accept that he will probably be on some other team.

[Ray_T 609]

1 hour ago, Showboat said:

Everything you say makes perfect sense.  I suspect that neither Kupp nor Stafford will see much pre-season action and even if camp reports are good I'd still be leery.  I'd guess that in most leagues someone will spend a second or even a late first on him.  So if you are sold on him, that's probably what it will take.  If you are a value drafter, I think waiting until the third round is the right call but you have to be able to accept that he will probably be on some other team.

I agree.  unless something happens to make them completely fall off the fantasy map there will be someone likely willing to pay for him around his current ADP just based on past performance.

so you are likely right.  I wont end up with him unless he slides below his ADP.

granted most of my leagues are auctions and not drafts but the concept is the same.  I wont overpay.   and I'm okay with that.

for the record, I checked the fftoday rankings  they have him as the #5 ranked WR just behind Devante Adams and ahead of AJ Brown.   I think its a reasonable ranking.  I would have brown ahead of him but I'm not gonna make a fuss over that.   thats more of a preference thing.   I guess this would likely put him into the middle of round 2 and not the end of round 2 like I originally stated.   I may have to re assess the injury adjustment I have placed on him or decide if he belongs in a lower tier.    I guess its not a given that he misses a ton of time so maybe this is where he needs to be unless some bad news comes out.

I am still not fully decided on this but I still am of the opinion his current ADP is earlier than it should be.   I have not changed my mind on that.

[weepaws 2,529]

Wow number five wr sounds like a bargain.  

[polecatt 405]

On 6/24/2023 at 2:14 PM, weepaws said:

I wouldn’t draft Kupp , I would pass on him, I hope that indeed happens, so I can draft a rd one rb, and than draft a rd one wr in the second rd.   

Thanks.  

I thought you would take a QB in the 1st round 

[polecatt 405]

On 6/24/2023 at 9:12 AM, wolves111 said:

All true. However, weepaws has emphatically predicted Kupp will be the #1 scoring wr. Age and injury history alone would indicate that's a reach.

They all have some issues and Kupp certainly has a bit more than many, but it's not a stretch to think he's gonna be the #1 WR. If he is able to stay healthy, I think he's the easy favorite to be tops

[polecatt 405]

On 6/21/2023 at 10:29 PM, Ray_T said:

on the field or in the massage room?

Both

[weepaws 2,529]

4 hours ago, polecatt said:

I thought you would take a QB in the 1st round 

Nice.  

[JammyJr 0]

On 6/27/2023 at 12:24 AM, Ray_T said:

I wouldnt be surprised to see his ADP rise throughout the pre season but I do think hes a fantastic buy at the ADP as it stands today.

Perhaps he is sold by skilled sellers and bought by not-so-skilled buyers.
Or there is something about this purchase that no one knows about. Just my opinion.

Hi all

[FrancieFootball 75]

Russell Wilson.

[weepaws 2,529]

2 hours ago, FrancieFootball said:

Russell Wilson.

I’ve seen other’s vote for R Wilson , my question to you is , why?

[FrancieFootball 75]

5 hours ago, weepaws said:

I’ve seen other’s vote for R Wilson , my question to you is , why?

Two words: Sean Payton. 

One of history's greatest coaches will profoundly change the Broncos culture help Wilson get back on track and perhaps even better than he was in Seattle. I'm thinking 30-40 passing TDs this year. 

Denver is a team to watch this year. 

[weepaws 2,529]

18 minutes ago, FrancieFootball said:

Two words: Sean Payton. 

One of history's greatest coaches will profoundly change the Broncos culture help Wilson get back on track and perhaps even better than he was in Seattle. I'm thinking 30-40 passing TDs this year. 

Denver is a team to watch this year. 

I would like to think you for the reply, I’m not sure I can agree, I think Wilson desire might be his biggest problem, he is 34 now and I just have a feeling he might not be a 30 td Qb anymore even with Payton as his coach.  

Wilsons per game avg last season was just a little lower then his last season with the Hawks.  

Anyway we shall see.  

[FrancieFootball 75]

1 minute ago, weepaws said:

I would like to think you for the reply, I’m not sure I can agree, I think Wilson desire might be his biggest problem, he is 34 now and I just have a feeling he might not be a 30 td Qb anymore even with Payton as his coach.  

Wilsons per game avg last season was just a little lower then his last season with the Hawks.  

Anyway we shall see.  

Yes, we should make a note of this and and follow along as the season goes on. Hopefully Javonte Williams bounces back. Culture is so important to a team, and ugly things happen when you don't have it. A Sean Payton culture alone should help Wilson. We shall see!