Round One - Three Commentary - July Mock 2023

[Mike FF Today 721]

Let the games begin!

[WhiteWonder 2,675]

lucky number 10.... again

[Mike FF Today 721]

I have the Football Guru's pick at 1.04.

[Hawkeye21 2,380]

I'll have my pick in a couple minutes.

[Hawkeye21 2,380]

Sorry about that guys.  I thought I had a reminder set for the draft but apparently I didn't   I think McCaffrey is normally the obvious pick here but I was second guessing myself.

What's funny is that I had the 12th pick in the June draft and now I have the 1st pick.  Both ends of the spectrum for me this year.

[Vikings4ever 538]

There's 2 guys vying for the number 1 pick in a PPR. Hawkeye took 1, so that laves Jefferson to me.

[Mike FF Today 721]

19 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

I think McCaffrey is normally the obvious pick here but I was second guessing myself.

Jefferson will go with the first pick in a lot of PPR leagues but certainly nothing wrong with taking C-Mac.

[Hawkeye21 2,380]

Just now, Mike FF Today said:

Jefferson will go with the first pick in a lot of PPR leagues but certainly nothing wrong with taking C-Mac.

I actually considered Ekeler as well.  I had him in my money league last year.

[Mr. Landry 29]

For just the briefest of moments I had a glimmer of hope that Jefferson would fall to me.  Then I saw Vikes was picking in front of me.  At the third pick, there were actually three options that I prepared for (Jefferson was not one of them).  Kupp has by far the highest upside of those three.  He was on pace last year to be the #1 WR for the second straight year.  The Rams are on the decline, but I still think if Kupp stays healthy he'll vie for the #1 WR spot again this year.   In a PPR league, that is exactly what you are looking for and "if he stays healthy" is a caveat that applies to everyone.

[Ray_T 739]

4 minutes ago, Mr. Landry said:

For just the briefest of moments I had a glimmer of hope that Jefferson would fall to me.  Then I saw Vikes was picking in front of me.  At the third pick, there were actually three options that I prepared for (Jefferson was not one of them).  Kupp has by far the highest upside of those three.  He was on pace last year to be the #1 WR for the second straight year.  The Rams are on the decline, but I still think if Kupp stays healthy he'll vie for the #1 WR spot again this year.   In a PPR league, that is exactly what you are looking for and "if he stays healthy" is caveat that applies to everyone.

last year at pick 3 I had shovel sniping my picks (pick 4) and vikings hitting twice on the end.   between the two of you I was sniped a number of times last year.  I'm looking forward to not having that happen as much this year. (at least thats my hope)

[worm 36]

When I first saw my draft spot I thought there was a small chance Ekeler would make it there, pleased to see that he did.  There were other choices I would have been happy with, #5 is not a bad spot to draft from.

[remote controller 143]

Here's hoping Tua stays upright.

[Ray_T 739]

It was a real tough call for me.

but I do think Henry will benefit from the addition of Hopkins the same way Jacobs benefitted by the addition of Adams.   you just cant stack the box the same way when you have a WR of his Calibre who can burn you. 

I think this signing bought Henry one more year of great stats (health permitting) and that is what put him over the top compared to the other RB choices for me.

[robb 78]

Need a Round 2 Selection thread.

[robb 78]

Bijan was not who I expected to take here!! But, I saw his ADP value drop to #11 and I thought I couldn’t pass on him. He is the starter, and should excel in Atlanta. And, who I want at 2.02 will still be there for me I believe.

[WhiteWonder 2,675]

I took Chubb in the June mock non ppr. Time to mix it up a little. 

[shovelheadt 68]

I get it, risky pick with Barkley. But I don't see him being as stupid as Bell was a few years ago. 

[Mike FF Today 721]

Pro Tip: If you click the "Follow" button in each of the Pick threads, you'll get an email alert when a pick is made. 

[robb 78]

32 minutes ago, Mike FF Today said:

Pro Tip: If you click the "Follow" button in each of the Pick threads, you'll get an email alert when a pick is made. 

Yup……I have done this for years, both on the Selection thread and the Doscussion thread. Keeps me up-to-date on the draft!

[WhiteWonder 2,675]

Unfortunately my e-mail associated with most things FF is more of a junk mail . But I do a good enough job staying on top of my picks, I think  

 

as for G Wilson… just wanted him. 80+ 1000+ with that QB play in 2022? Yes please. Due for positive TD regression too. 

[Ray_T 739]

7 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

Unfortunately my e-mail associated with most things FF is more of a junk mail . But I do a good enough job staying on top of my picks, I think  

 

as for G Wilson… just wanted him. 80+ 1000+ with that QB play in 2022? Yes please. Due for positive TD regression too. 

I like the pick. 

[Ray_T 739]

ugh, sniped by the iceman.   Jacobs is a fair consolation prize but not a big fan of his attitude towards holding out when hes tagged.

that said.... talent is talent.   I think he was the best player on the board.

[shovelheadt 68]

Looks like I started the ‘holdout RB’ run. 

[Vikings4ever 538]

RB/WR depth getting hit hard. Not super high on Harris, but he's the best of what's left.

[Mr. Landry 29]

Good to see my first draft of the year is shaping up like my drafts every year.  After Jacobs was off the board I had three targets that I would have been thrilled to get.  I watched them go one by one in front of me (Pollard, St. Brown and Waddle).  Shifting to Plan B I had to select someone I was not as fond of.  I settled on Stevenson, who I may come to love depending on if the Patriots sign someone to share the backfield, which would make this a potential disaster of a pick.  Stevenson finished as RB10 last year and didn't even start the first six games.  There is no more Damian Harris and he actually has an offensive coordinator this year.  I'm expecting top eight numbers out of him at the position.  

[shovelheadt 68]

15 hours ago, shovelheadt said:

I get it, risky pick with Barkley. But I don't see him being as stupid as Bell was a few years ago. 

https://www.nfl.com/news/giants-rb-saquon-barkley-agree-to-terms-on-one-year-11-million-deal

[robb 78]

22 minutes ago, shovelheadt said:

https://www.nfl.com/news/giants-rb-saquon-barkley-agree-to-terms-on-one-year-11-million-deal

Great pick by you now!! Your gamble has paid off.

[Hawkeye21 2,380]

Breece Hall could be a risky pick but I already have my RB1 so I think he offers high reward and low risk for me.  I had him on one of my teams last year and he was amazing before the injury.

After locking up my starting RBs I needed to get a WR.  The majority of the top talent is already taken but Smith is basically the WR1.b on the Eagles.  I had considered another WR but I'll stick with the guy on the better offense.

[robb 78]

LOL: It appears to me that all 12 of us are using the same Best Ball Rankings/cheatsheet as the top 12 running backs and the top 12 wide receivers on my rankings sheet are all taken, none below the top 12 for each position! And, equal split between wide receivers and running backs thru the first 2 rounds!

[Vikings4ever 538]

Not a fan of taking a QB high, but everywhere else has gotten hit hard. And it's very possible that QB quality will get decimated by the time we're back to me.

[Mike FF Today 721]

I've got the Guru's pick at 3.04.

[Mr. Landry 29]

As Vikings said, RB/WR has been hit hard but there were a couple of WR's I'm still high on.  Olave was at the top of that list.  He had more fantasy points per game than Garrett Wilson last year (who most people have as a clear cut top-10 WR) and he got a significant upgrade at QB.  

[Ray_T 739]

Had plans to take Tee Higgins here, but was sniped and it was a blessing that it turned out that way.

it forced me to look in other places and then when I looked at the top WR on the board and the projected dropoff to next round I saw not a huge drop.  then I looked at the dropoff from Josh Allen to the next QB on the list and that drop was significant, so I decided to go this route even though it was my original plan to wait on a QB I found I couldnt resist the value that Allen presented at this point in the draft.

[remote controller 143]

My plan was to take Aaron Jones and Worm took him from me.  This is a very flexible league allowing you to feather your nest (start) 4 Wr's.  If that's where the talent is.

[shovelheadt 68]

Just got back…give me 15 min to get caught up

[robb 78]

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

then I looked at the dropoff from Josh Allen to the next QB on the list and that drop was significant, so I decided to go this route even though it was my original plan to wait on a QB I found I couldnt resist the value that Allen presented at this point in the draft.

I will respectfully disagree with your comment Ray that "the dropoff from Josh Allen to the next QB on the list and that drop was significant". I am of the opinion that Burrow and Hurts are in the same category as Allen and not significantly below Allen in projected points in 2023. Hope you don't mind, just my 2 cents!

[Ray_T 739]

3 minutes ago, robb said:

I will respectfully disagree with your comment Ray that "the dropoff from Josh Allen to the next QB on the list and that drop was significant". I am of the opinion that Burrow and Hurts are in the same category as Allen and not significantly below Allen in projected points in 2023. Hope you don't mind, just my 2 cents!

I dont mind.   We can agree to disagree.    more significant factor was I looked at WR from this point on and the dropoff was small.   making me think waiting on a WR wasnt a bad play.  thats what led me to look at QB.

tempting to take a third RB but I already have two and have needs in other areas.   This was the logical next place to look.  I felt he was the best QB on the board at the time so I took him.

[Hawkeye21 2,380]

I can't remember the last time this many QBs went in the first 3 rounds.  Why is it trending that way?

[WhiteWonder 2,675]

9 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

I can't remember the last time this many QBs went in the first 3 rounds.  Why is it trending that way?

fomo on the "sure things" ? 

I'm still in the camp that generally doesn't even look at the QB board until quite a few have popped. I do understand the idea that RB/WR draft lists have been heavily dented at that point in the draft, but I usually have a handful of names at those positions that I am still very interested in getting. They won't put up Patrick Mahomes numbers but I'm obviously not comparing them directly to QB's. I always feel confident that the gap in QB points will be smaller with the guy I end up with down the line than the gap i might see at RB or WR. 

 

Then again maybe I've just been lucky over the years waiting on QB

[Mike FF Today 721]

9 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

I can't remember the last time this many QBs went in the first 3 rounds.  Why is it trending that way?

The high end quarterbacks (Mahomes, Hurts, Allen, etc) have proven to be difference makers, especially last season.