Round Twelve - Sixteen Commentary - July Mock 2023

[ralphster 274]

Watson, A Rog, Murray

Chubb, Mixon, Herbert/Johnson

Lamb, Metcalf, Godwin, Mooney, Samuel, Gallup

Waller, Chig

 

Thinner than I'd prefer to be at rb. Love my TEs. I think Rodgers ends up starting more than Watson at QB this year.

[robb 71]

QB:  Hurts,

         Wilson

RB: 

B Robinson®

R. White

Montgomery, Det

Achane®

Bigsby, Jac ®

WR:

AJ Brown

Ridley, Jac

Jeudy

E Moore, Clev

J. Williams, Det

Shaheed

TE:

Njoku,

Dulcich Defense: Dallas Cowboys

I won't mind taking this team into the season. Nothing outstanding, but I believe I have drafted a "level" team without too many holes. I purposely drafted 2 "stacks" in Philly and Denver(3) and 2 RB/WR stacks. Maybe too many rookies, guess we will see! Need Williams to shine after his 6 games suspension. I will also put my WRs up against the other rosters, but we can all probably say that!

 

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

3 hours ago, robb said:

WR:

AJ Brown

Ridley, Jac

Jeudy

E Moore, Clev

J. Williams, Det

Shaheed

I will also put my WRs up against the other rosters, but we can all probably say that!

 

I would take my top 2 and probably my whole unit (slightly) over yours but I am getting higher and higher on Jeudy. So I might prefer your top 3 if not for the fact that I seem to be lower than most on Calvin Ridley. 

I'm just not sure I see a guy who hasn't played since early 2021 coming in and lighting it up. Hot take but I don't think he outproduces Kirk. I do expect the Jags offense to continue ascending and both guys can put up numbers but there is also Etienne and Engram and I think Lawrence trusts both. 

I just don't see the reason for Ridley to be going 10ish WR's ahead of Kirk in drafts right now. 

 

this was actually more to talk about Ridley than it was your WR group 

[remote controller 133]

Looks good.  Thanks!

[Hawkeye21 1,854]

I see a couple teams drafted 3 QBs.  Not sure I've seen that very often.

[Mr. Landry 28]

2 hours ago, Hawkeye21 said:

I see a couple teams drafted 3 QBs.  Not sure I've seen that very often.

The QB drafting was screwy this year and I'm wondering if it's a sign of things to come.  Last year, after four rounds, two QB's had been selected (Allen and Herbert).  This year, six had been taken.  Last year 13 QB's had been taken by the end of round 10.  This year, 19 had been taken.  With 8 starting positions (I'm not counting DEF), that means most teams are drafting a back up QB before back up RB's/WR's.  

[Hawkeye21 1,854]

11 minutes ago, Mr. Landry said:

The QB drafting was screwy this year and I'm wondering if it's a sign of things to come.  Last year, after four rounds, two QB's had been selected (Allen and Herbert).  This year, six had been taken.  Last year 13 QB's had been taken by the end of round 10.  This year, 19 had been taken.  With 8 starting positions (I'm not counting DEF), that means most teams are drafting a back up QB before back up RB's/WR's.  

I don’t get it. I don’t see a big enough discrepancy in QBs to be doing that. 

[Ray_T 591]

6 hours ago, Hawkeye21 said:

I don’t get it. I don’t see a big enough discrepancy in QBs to be doing that. 

I think the Burrow injury got more people thinking about insurance.  the day he got hurt, a run on QB's started that likely may not have otherwise come to pass.  Those waiting on a QB obviously realized his injury meant a guy who had taken a QB is likely to take another in fairly short order and it really affected the psyche of those drafting.  If this draft had been held a week earlier, the result may have been a lot different.

[Ray_T 591]

On 8/1/2023 at 9:02 AM, Mike FF Today said:

Sorry, should've been quicker with Ray's 14.06 pick. I was wrapped up in publishing the Guru's latest article.

hey I'd just like to offer my thanks for doing my picks.

wife decided to pick an Air B&B that has no wifi/cable because she thought it would be good to unplug. 

I was able to email once or twice daily but thats about all.   but the good news is my draft went well.  I got the players I targeted.

Thanks Mike

[Ray_T 591]

On 7/31/2023 at 2:13 PM, Mr. Landry said:

First snipe in the 13th?  Consider yourself lucky.  I've been sniped at least three times.

 

With that said, I like the Collins pick.  With Cooks gone, he could easily step into the WR1 role in Houston.  And while their passing game is nothing to get excited about, snagging a teams potential WR1 in the 13th round is great value.

that was exactly my rationale.

I figured there was a chance Woods would be the guy, and that still can happen.    to that end I was pleased and surprised he had dropped to me at this point in the draft.   I'm also a bit surprised someone didnt take a shot at woods late in this draft.   he has big time sleeper potential.   I almost took him but felt that Van Jefferson, the #2 WR in a better offense might be the better play.  though that was a very close one for me.

[shovelheadt 62]

QB - Burrow/Goff

RB - Taylor/Barkley/Swift/Elliot/Evans

WR - Pittman/Pickens/Evans/Moore/Boyd/Valdes-Scantling

TE - Engram/LaPorta

 

Assuming Burrow comes back healthy, the QBs are a strength. I expect some decent weeks from Goff now and then. The RBs are a disaster. I caught a break with Barkley signing, then Taylor destroyed it with his holdout/trade request. Barring some unexpected development with Taylor and Zeke, no chance I compete this year with this roster. WR are ok I guess....going RB/RB early will always leave you wanting somewhat at WR. Tried to double up with the KC guys not knowing which one will excel. TE are solid....LaPorta is one of the guys I've been following for months. I could easily see him producing well in that Lions offense...Goff loves his check downs. 

Overall grade...C-

[Ray_T 591]

QB-  Josh Allen    Derek Carr

RB  Derek Henry   Josh Jacobs    Kenneth Walker     Brian Robinson

WR    DeAndre Hopkins     Mike Williams     Brandon Cooks    Courtland Sutton     Nico Collins     Van Jefferson

TE    Tyler Higbee     Dawson Knox

Def   Patriots, Chiefs

------------------------

I feel good about my draft and my team overall

unlike last year when I was constantly sniped, I sat back and let the draft come to me.   I wasnt even planning to take a RB in round 1 but with 4 WR off the board before I picked at 7 I had to pivot and go RB to start the draft.  This is the result.

At QB,   fully healthy Josh Allen should be all I need, but I got a solid backup in Carr.

At RB, Henry and Jacobs are top notch, but Jacobs may hold out so this is not as big a lock as I'd prefer, but if Jacobs wasnt possibly holding out I'd never be able to draft him where I did.  So I took my third RB Kenneth Walker early but thats not a huge risk factor as we draft for a flex.  this is just a potential RB flex if Jacobs plays, or a RB2 if he doesnt.  Robinson is a later round potential starter in Washington. I cannot complain about the value.  pretty solid RB4.

at WR, I felt I needed to take some chances.  I didnt take my first WR until round 5 but I took more WR to compensate.  Hopkins I think is a legit WR1.   the PFF stats indicate he still got open on the vast majority of the routes he ran last year.   he still put up solid stats with backup QB level play so I think hes still a legit WR1 playing with a starting level QB I can see him as a solid WR1.   Mike Williams is a very good WR playing in a great offense, and Cooks has produced no matter the QB up until last year.  I am not certain anyone could have produced in Houston last year with the QB situation they had, so I'll give him a mulligan on that.  Now in Dallas, with a much better offense, I see a lot of upside potential here.   as a WR3 I'll take it.

Then with the rest, Brian Robinson,  Courtland Sutton,  Nico Collins and Van Jefferson are all in my opinion potential high upside players I got at the price of a backup WR.  I'm happy with all of them.  I wouldnt be surprised if at least one or two of them put up WR3 numbers or better on a reasonably consistent basis this season.

at Defense, Pats and Chiefs are solid.  no issues there

only area i dont feel great about is TE.   considering how long I waited, I think Higbee and Knox are a reasonable tandem.   both starters in a decent offense who should get a reasonable number of looks. 

I dont 100% know that this is a championship team but I think if Jacobs plays, and Hopkins performs, it could be close.  If they dont, my team likely drops down to the middle of the pack.

but this was the kind of draft where I felt these gambles could pay off in a big way.   So I decided to Go big or go home. 

 

 

[shovelheadt 62]

On 8/7/2023 at 9:54 AM, shovelheadt said:

QB - Burrow/Goff

RB - Taylor/Barkley/Swift/Elliot/Evans

WR - Pittman/Pickens/Evans/Moore/Boyd/Valdes-Scantling

TE - Engram/LaPorta

 

Assuming Burrow comes back healthy, the QBs are a strength. I expect some decent weeks from Goff now and then. The RBs are a disaster. I caught a break with Barkley signing, then Taylor destroyed it with his holdout/trade request. Barring some unexpected development with Taylor and Zeke, no chance I compete this year with this roster. WR are ok I guess....going RB/RB early will always leave you wanting somewhat at WR. Tried to double up with the KC guys not knowing which one will excel. TE are solid....LaPorta is one of the guys I've been following for months. I could easily see him producing well in that Lions offense...Goff loves his check downs. 

Overall grade...C-

A sliver of hope

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/patriots-signing-ex-cowboys-rb-ezekiel-elliott-to-one-year-deal-worth-up-to-6-mi

[Mr. Landry 28]

On 8/14/2023 at 2:18 PM, shovelheadt said:

A sliver of hope

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/patriots-signing-ex-cowboys-rb-ezekiel-elliott-to-one-year-deal-worth-up-to-6-mi

  That is not what I, or my #1 RB, wanted to hear.

[Ray_T 591]

Hey I noticed last year for the June mock there was an analysis of the teams and the draft as a whole.      but not for the July Mock.

it seems  to be the same again this year.

just curious why that would be?   I dont care a whole bunch one way or the other but as a reader, I did enjoy reading the breakdown of the june mock so it would be logical to think a july mock writup would be well received. I do know you start to get busier this time of year, so maybe its a time thing.   Either way I thought I would ask.

 

[Ray_T 591]

hey guys, I put up a thread in the board to talk about the various drafting strategies.

I hope you dont mind.   this was a nice draft to study with a few people employing different drafting strategies.  

feel free to go on and elaborate on what you were doing and why.   or dont.  no big deal.   I'm just hoping some new people to fantasy who happen to stumble on the site can see that thread and learn from our successes and mistakes.

[Mr. Landry 28]

Sorry I didn't respond to this earlier, I haven't checked in here in awhile.  The June analysis is annually done by Fumbleweed and he doesn't participate in the July mock.  The last few years there has been an article posted on the site with a "top ten things I noticed" theme, but it looks like that didn't happen this year.  I think, since the original purpose of the mock I believe was to provide a source to site visitors to get an idea of what a draft might look like and the reasons behind the picks, your post drawing attention to it is a good idea.  

[Vikings4ever 496]

On 8/2/2023 at 5:26 PM, Mr. Landry said:

I set this up on MFL, best ball style like we've done the last few years.  Double check your rosters, if you can, to make sure I didn't make a mistake.

https://www44.myfantasyleague.com/2023/home/42335#0

 

 

Just FYI, the Defense scoring isn't set up.

[robb 71]

2 hours ago, Vikings4ever said:

Just FYI, the Defense scoring isn't set up.

Yes, let’s get the defenses set up as I have the Dallas Cowboys…..and they hit it out of the park this week!!

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

@Mr. Landry   just a heads up that DST scoring is still off.   Not a big deal, IMO but figured I would use an @ in case you didn't see Vikes post. 

[Mr. Landry 28]

Damn.   I think this happened last year.  I'll go play around with it.

[Mr. Landry 28]

Ok.  Not sure why they weren't included, but they've been added and I retroactively applied them to the first three weeks.  So robb should be in first place now, minus that disaster of a Week 3 performance.