Trump talk only- no Eagles talk allowed (Steelers talk is OK though)

[posty 2,654]

Well there you go…. If Kam-a-la has the electoral college numbers, there is no need for her backers to go vote…

[posty 2,654]

7 hours ago, The Real timschochet said:

She’s about 20 times as smart as Trump is on this issue. (And almost every other issue.) 

So if Trump has an IQ of 100, Kam-a-la has an IQ of 2,000?

[RaiderHaters Revenge 4,290]

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DAypzTWCUyk/?igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==
 

shes 20x smarter than trump though

[BrahmaBulls 629]

12 minutes ago, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DAypzTWCUyk/?igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==
 

shes 20x smarter than trump though

It's amazing people support putting this idiot on the ballot without one single vote ever being cast for her.   She doesn't even understand how the government works.  This is the best the Dems have?

[The Real timschochet 6,543]

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
 

Nate Silver has Kamala Harris winning Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada  and the 1 in Nebraska, bringing her to 276 electoral votes. 

[The Real timschochet 6,543]

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/survey-research/2024-swing-state-project/swing-state-polling-finds-deadlocked-presidential
 

Cook Political Report has Kamala Harris winning Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan. Nevada and the 1 in Nebraska bringing her to 276 electoral votes. * Hmm . This is starting to look like a pattern. 
 

* Cook also has North Carolina tied. If Harris win that it brings her to 292. 

[seafoam1 2,874]

Hey everyone, timmy thinks the kameltoe is going to win the election. 

I know, it's shocking. But this is true. 

And he'll be glad to mention it 500 more times before the election in case you don't believe me.

[The Real timschochet 6,543]

3 minutes ago, seafoam1 said:

Hey everyone, timmy thinks the kameltoe is going to win the election. 

I know, it's shocking. But this is true. 

And he'll be glad to mention it 500 more times before the election in case you don't believe me.

It’s not guesswork. I’m just looking at the numbers. I have no idea what @Jon_mx is looking at. Or @Strike or any of these other guys. It’s extremely tight and could go either way but you have to give Kamala the slight edge. Most experts do, and the betting lines as well. 

[Horseman 2,433]

Betting odds are dead even. Have been for over a week. You’re a liar and a rat. 

[The Real timschochet 6,543]

4 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Betting odds are dead even. Have been for over a week. You’re a liar and a rat. 

No this is wrong. They’ve narrowed but Harris is still ahead.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2024/10/07/harris-lead-over-trump-narrows-in-election-betting-markets/

[HotRod 69]

14 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

No this is wrong. They’ve narrowed but Harris is still ahead.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2024/10/07/harris-lead-over-trump-narrows-in-election-betting-markets/

https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president

tied

[seafoam1 2,874]

3 minutes ago, HotRod said:

https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president

tied

timmy lost $3500 betting that biden was going to win this election. 

[The Real timschochet 6,543]

3 minutes ago, HotRod said:

https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president

tied

Forbes is using the 4 main sites. RCP is using 8 sites. BFD. 

[HotRod 69]

6 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Forbes is using the 4 main sites. RCP is using 8 sites. BFD. 

Bigger sample is usually better.

[Strike 5,340]

Just now, HotRod said:

Bigger sample is usually better.

Tim prefers sites that only sample data that supports his worldview so he can post links to them.

[Strike 5,340]

9 minutes ago, seafoam1 said:

timmy lost $3500 betting that biden was going to win this election. 

And then welched on them.

[The Real timschochet 6,543]

Just now, HotRod said:

Bigger sample is usually better.

Not necessarily. But look I’m not really seeing a huge difference anyhow. Basically what happened is that Kamala had a 3 point betting advantage until one service decided she was going to lose Pennsylvania and a whole bunch of money came in for Trump. That skewed the averages and narrowed it to a point advantage or a tie, depending on sample size. 
 

In the end all this amounts to is that the entire election is likely to come down to Pennsylvania. Which most people have known all along. Everything I’m reading shows that Kamala Harris has maintained a consistent 1-2 point edge there for about a month now, on average. A couple people here, notably @Jon_mx, think that’s a lie and that Trump is winning there by 4-5 points. We will find out shortly enough. I feel good about it but not great. (I also felt good last night that the Steelers would win until the last two minutes.) 

[Horseman 2,433]

59 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Not necessarily. But look I’m not really seeing a huge difference anyhow. Basically what happened is that Kamala had a 3 point betting advantage until one service decided she was going to lose Pennsylvania and a whole bunch of money came in for Trump. That skewed the averages and narrowed it to a point advantage or a tie, depending on sample size. 
 

In the end all this amounts to is that the entire election is likely to come down to Pennsylvania. Which most people have known all along. Everything I’m reading shows that Kamala Harris has maintained a consistent 1-2 point edge there for about a month now, on average. A couple people here, notably @Jon_mx, think that’s a lie and that Trump is winning there by 4-5 points. We will find out shortly enough. I feel good about it but not great. (I also felt good last night that the Steelers would win until the last two minutes.) 

 

 

[squistion 2,062]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1843316641255297254

Vice President Harris hits back at Sarah Huckabee Sanders' comments that Harris "doesn't have anything keeping her humble" because she doesn't have children.

"I don't think she understands that there are a whole lot of women out here who, one, are not aspiring to be humble," Harris says on 'Call Her Daddy' podcast. "Two, a whole lot of women out here who have a lot of love in their life, family in their life, and children in their life — I think it's really important for women to lift each other up."

"We have our family by blood and then we have our family by love. And I have both. And I consider it to be a real blessing."

[RLLD 4,180]

There is a way for Harris to win this thing, but it would be rather unpalatable.   All she has to do is admit the absolutely disaster that Biden was, declare herself separate from it and lie profusely about not doing the same stuff;   which of course she will, because she is just as focking stupid as any other Democrat.

If she throws Biden under the bus and pretends she will be better, she could win this.

[The Real timschochet 6,543]

1 hour ago, RLLD said:

There is a way for Harris to win this thing, but it would be rather unpalatable.   All she has to do is admit the absolutely disaster that Biden was, declare herself separate from it and lie profusely about not doing the same stuff;   which of course she will, because she is just as focking stupid as any other Democrat.

If she throws Biden under the bus and pretends she will be better, she could win this.

I don’t think you’re getting that she’s winning right now. 

[Maximum Overkill 1,863]

 

 

[The Real timschochet 6,543]

1 minute ago, Maximum Overkill said:

 

 

It was still the right thing to do. 

[Maximum Overkill 1,863]

2 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

It was still the right thing to do. 

How?? 

[RaiderHaters Revenge 4,290]

3 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

How?? 

he thinks funding terrorists is better than keeping a pot head tranny america hater in a russian prison

 

[RLLD 4,180]

50 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

I don’t think you’re getting that she’s winning right now. 

Well, she is not.  We already know she us underperforming based on historical factors.  Which is why they are pulling Obama into it.  Right now she is not likely to win, but of course anything is possible.

The DOJ and press are doing everything they can, to include assassination attempts, so as we get closer will they get more desperate?

[squistion 2,062]

Just now, RLLD said:

Well, she is not.  We already know she us underperforming based on historical factors.  Which is why they are pulling Obama into it.  Right now she is not likely to win, but of course anything is possible.

The DOJ and press are doing everything they can, to include assassination attempts, so as we get closer will they get more desperate?

The DOJ is behind the assassination attempts? 

[Strike 5,340]

2 hours ago, RLLD said:

There is a way for Harris to win this thing, but it would be rather unpalatable.   All she has to do is admit the absolutely disaster that Biden was, declare herself separate from it and lie profusely about not doing the same stuff;   which of course she will, because she is just as focking stupid as any other Democrat.

If she throws Biden under the bus and pretends she will be better, she could win this.

Except Biden keeps repeating loudly how Kamalatoe was heavily involved in EVERYTHING the administration has done.  I don't think she can distance herself from him.

[supermike80 1,865]

39 minutes ago, RLLD said:

Well, she is not.  We already know she us underperforming based on historical factors.  Which is why they are pulling Obama into it.  Right now she is not likely to win, but of course anything is possible.

The DOJ and press are doing everything they can, to include assassination attempts, so as we get closer will they get more desperate?

I agree pulling Obama in is not the move if the dems were feeling confident 

[jerryskids 6,662]

4 minutes ago, supermike80 said:

I agree pulling Obama in is not the move if the dems were feeling confident 

I saw an ad by Saint Barack over the weekend that said Trump is getting tons of funding from his rich friends, but Kamala needs $5 from people like me.   

 

 

 

[supermike80 1,865]

Just now, jerryskids said:

I saw an ad by Saint Barack over the weekend that said Trump is getting tons of funding from his rich friends, but Kamala needs $5 from people like me.   

 

 

 

Wasnt it just recently, like after Kamala was appointed the media was talking about the millions and millions she raised??

[The Psychic Observer 498]

Trump is up +10 on Polymarket today.  Did something big happen?  No.  Just Elon Musk tweeting that Polymarket is more accurate than any poll.

For those that don't know polymarket is an offshore betting site popular with the crypto bros.

[Fnord 2,135]

11 minutes ago, The Psychic Observer said:

Trump is up +10 on Polymarket today.  Did something big happen?  No.  Just Elon Musk tweeting that Polymarket is more accurate than any poll.

For those that don't know polymarket is an offshore betting site popular with the crypto bros.

It would be pretty funny if a bunch of losers lost a fuk-ton of cash betting on Trump based on Elon's tweets. Sorta like those sad bastards that bought Trump Media stock. Fools and their money...

[The Real timschochet 6,543]

51 minutes ago, The Psychic Observer said:

Trump is up +10 on Polymarket today.  Did something big happen?  No.  Just Elon Musk tweeting that Polymarket is more accurate than any poll.

For those that don't know polymarket is an offshore betting site popular with the crypto bros.

Polymarket is the ONLY reason that Kamala leads by only 1 point in the overall betting markets instead of by several. It apparently believes, like some people here, that Trump is a lock to win Pennsylvania. But polling doesn’t show that. 

[Horseman 2,433]

58 minutes ago, The Psychic Observer said:

Trump is up +10 on Polymarket today.  Did something big happen?  No.  Just Elon Musk tweeting that Polymarket is more accurate than any poll.

For those that don't know polymarket is an offshore betting site popular with the crypto bros.

He said "betting markets are more accurate than polls", although the DogeDesigner tweet he retweeted had Polymarket in it that had already started to move. The other off shores are moving too.  Trump now a slight favorite in the betting markets after Kamalmentum was at -135.  Trump now -115.

 

 

[Horseman 2,433]

The nothing that has happened the past week:

Horrible response to Hurricane Helene by the Biden Administration.

Trump returns to the scene of the crime in Butler PA with Elon and a bunch of other celebrities after stops in NC and WI.  

[OldMaid 2,130]

Wasn’t there supposed to be a big red wave in the last midterms according to the polls? 

[The Real timschochet 6,543]

8 minutes ago, OldMaid said:

Wasn’t there supposed to be a big red wave in the last midterms according to the polls? 

They over counted  MAGA, which I suspect they’re doing again. We’ll see. 

[Horseman 2,433]

23 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Polymarket is the ONLY reason that Kamala leads by only 1 point in the overall betting markets instead of by several. It apparently believes, like some people here, that Trump is a lock to win Pennsylvania. But polling doesn’t show that. 

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/pa-pres-0929/

538 ranks Cygnal as the most trusted

Quote

 

A pair of key counties in the Keystone State look to be headed to Donald Trump’s column in November, and that may mean the presidency itself there too. That’s the takeaway from fresh polling of 420 likely voters in 2 bellwethers, Erie and Northampton counties, Sept. 30 and Oct. 1. These counties, which contain the city of Erie in the former case and Easton in the latter, have been predictive in past election cycles.

As pollster Cygnal notes, these counties “favor Donald Trump by a point (49 – 48) with less than five weeks until Election Day and voting already underway.” The former president has opportunities to “grow his lead” as voters continue to make their choices known between now and Nov. 5. Trump is up double digits when it comes to comparing his job performance to the work done by his White House successors: Half say the former president did a better job, while just 39% back the Biden-Harris record.

 

Even NBC has to admit it's a jump ball (not for long).

Quote

Harris and Trump are essentially tied, perhaps with a slight lean toward Trump, in the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. And while Harris has a slightly greater advantage in the Great Lakes states of Michigan and Wisconsin, those advantages are well within the boundaries of potential polling error. And the recent polling in all-important Pennsylvania — part of the most direct paths to 270 electoral votes for both Harris and Trump — appears to be a jump ball.

 

[The Real timschochet 6,543]

2 minutes ago, Horseman said:

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/pa-pres-0929/

538 ranks Cygnal as the most trusted

Even NBC has to admit it's a jump ball (not for long).

 

If aggregate polling in Pennsylvania moves in Trump’s direction I will be sure to note it here. And he will then become the favorite to win, obviously. So far, thankfully, that hasn’t happened.