Trump talk only- no Eagles talk allowed (Steelers talk is OK though)

[seafoam1 2,879]

5 minutes ago, Mark Davis said:

One last post and then I'll get off the side track.  It's also MUCH harder to do in current days because unless you are in a high limit room, most casinos especially in Las Vegas are 6:5 payouts on blackjack.  If you do that and restrict what I can split and double, they'll let me count all day because I can't beat that game.  You have to find a 3:2 table.  The tourists have no idea how much that change made to their odds.  At first it was single deck games that went to 6:5, now you just can't find any game other than high limit double deck.  And of course in the high limit game you have all eyes on you and every move.  So if you want to count today, best of luck.  Harder odds, and as you said earlier, watchful eyes.

It's like current day NFL. Refs look and think it's a penalty, they send it upstairs for review. Because it is all are on video. Both from your side and the dealers side. They do keep an eye on their own as well. 

[The Real timschochet 6,549]

14 minutes ago, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

Of course you would. You’d much rather be a woman than the cuck male you are

Well ya know. Maybe if I get that surgery I can have my chance at that. 

[RaiderHaters Revenge 4,299]

1 minute ago, The Real timschochet said:

Well ya know. Maybe if I get that surgery I can have my chance at that. 

youre not an illegal or you could get it for free

 

[Horseman 2,438]

3 hours ago, The Real timschochet said:

That Democrats see the writing on the wall? Among other things. 

As I wrote, Kamala is still the favorite. 
 

ETA not the betting favorite- polling favorite. At the moment. 

Mush brain still doesn't know how the polling works.   Even after all the momentum talk. 

[The Real timschochet 6,549]

New poll this morning has Harris once again ahead in Pennsylvania - this time by 2 points 

https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-pennsylvania-1966837

Thats 8 out of 10 polls in the last couple of weeks. The two from yesterday appear to be outliers. 
 

In other polling this morning, Harris has taken the lead by 6 points in the suburbs (a very big deal) and leads Trump in likability, though not in leadership skills (which amazes me but whatever, so long as she beats him.) 

[thegeneral 3,077]

Trump dodges both Fox and CNN debate offers. Shuts door on any further debates.

Smart move on his part.

[Hardcore troubadour 15,171]

The Amish are pissed.  Watch out in PA

[Strike 5,360]

11 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

New poll this morning has Harris once again ahead in Pennsylvania - this time by 2 points 

https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-pennsylvania-1966837

Thats 8 out of 10 polls in the last couple of weeks. The two from yesterday appear to be outliers. 
 

In other polling this morning, Harris has taken the lead by 6 points in the suburbs (a very big deal) and leads Trump in likability, though not in leadership skills (which amazes me but whatever, so long as she beats him.) 

Which two from yesterday?   How come you're ignoring the new swing state polls that just came out? 

[The Real timschochet 6,549]

So there’s a lot of deceptive headlines out there. Check this one out: 

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4922690-democrats-nervous-kamala-harris-campaign/

The headline is: “Democrats start to hit the panic button”. Sounds ominous, no? But then you read the article: Democrats are happy they’re ahead nationally but are worried about how close the battleground states are. Nobody knows how this will end up. Well, yeah. But there’s not a single mention of panic in the article. 

[The Real timschochet 6,549]

3 minutes ago, Strike said:

Which two from yesterday?   How come you're ignoring the new swing state polls that just came out? 

The two I posted yesterday. Along with the other swing state polls I posted. If there are new ones I missed feel free to post them if you really care about it. 

[Strike 5,360]

Just now, The Real timschochet said:

So there’s a lot of deceptive headlines out there. Check this one out: 

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4922690-democrats-nervous-kamala-harris-campaign/

The headline is: “Democrats start to hit the panic button”. Sounds ominous, no? But then you read the article: Democrats are happy they’re ahead nationally but are worried about how close the battleground states are. Nobody knows how this will end up. Well, yeah. But there’s not a single mention of panic in the article. 

If there wasn't some level of panic they wouldn't be sending out KamalaToe and Walz on a media blitz.  You're woefully incapable of interpreting the political landscape you fancy yourself an expert in. 

[HellToupee 1,663]

 

[The Real timschochet 6,549]

Just now, Strike said:

If there wasn't some level of panic they wouldn't be sending out KamalaToe and Walz on a media blitz.  You're woefully incapable of interpreting the political landscape you fancy yourself an expert in. 

No that has nothing to do with panic. Thats been planned for weeks. You’re buying into conservative spin and it’s been mostly wrong. 

[Strike 5,360]

Just now, The Real timschochet said:

The two I posted yesterday. Along with the other swing state polls I posted. If there are new ones I missed feel free to post them if you really care about it. 

Nope.  I don't care about polls.  And you did NOT post the swing state polls yesterday.  I called you out specifically for not doing so and you STILL didn't post them.   But no, there is a set of new state polls data that came out today.  You're either ignorant or purposely not posting that data just like yesterday.  Not a serious poster.

[Strike 5,360]

1 minute ago, The Real timschochet said:

No that has nothing to do with panic. Thats been planned for weeks. You’re buying into conservative spin and it’s been mostly wrong. 

Bullsh*t.  You're just making sh*t up again.

[The Real timschochet 6,549]

Harris takes 4 point national lead in YouGov poll this morning: 

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4926117-harris-leads-trump-economist-yougov-poll/amp/

According to Nate Silver, a 4 point national lead gives Harris a 95%+ chance of winning the election. 

[Sean Mooney 1,957]

When do channel, trench, and gutter polls weigh in?

[seafoam1 2,879]

3 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Harris takes 4 point national lead in YouGov poll this morning: 

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4926117-harris-leads-trump-economist-yougov-poll/amp/

According to Nate Silver, a 4 point national lead gives Harris a 95%+ chance of winning the election. 

You should bet big on it. 

[Hardcore troubadour 15,171]

Posting poll results from the thousands of polls out there must be that serious political discussion that The real Tim craves.  

[The Real timschochet 6,549]

4 minutes ago, Strike said:

Nope.  I don't care about polls.  And you did NOT post the swing state polls yesterday.  I called you out specifically for not doing so and you STILL didn't post them.   But no, there is a set of new state polls data that came out today.  You're either ignorant or purposely not posting that data just like yesterday.  Not a serious poster.

Yeah whatever. Like you know anything about serious. 

[The Real timschochet 6,549]

5 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Posting poll results from the thousands of polls out there must be that serious political discussion that The real Tim craves.  

Hey man in this thread I am just trying to provide an objective view. 

[Strike 5,360]

3 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Hey man in this thread I am just trying to provide an objective view. 

Then why are you ignoring so many polls?  They're not from right leaning sources.  If you were serious you wouldn't be cherry picking polls.

[Horseman 2,438]

25 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Harris takes 4 point national lead in YouGov poll this morning: 

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4926117-harris-leads-trump-economist-yougov-poll/amp/

According to Nate Silver, a 4 point national lead gives Harris a 95%+ chance of winning the election. 

If 538's aggregate is 4 points.  Even his biased asss wouldn't make a statement based on one YouGov poll.  

Again, you're willfully ignorant or just fat out lying.  Stop making stuff up.  

[Horseman 2,438]

11 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Hey man in this thread I am just trying to provide an objective view. 

Liar

[Horseman 2,438]

18 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Yeah whatever. Like you know anything about serious. 

And this is the type of BS response you post any time you get called out for lying.

Yeah whatever.  

You're incapable of defending your own BS.

[seafoam1 2,879]

13 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Hey man in this thread I am just trying to provide an objective view. 

 

2 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Liar

Holy crap, I thought you doctored his post when you responded. 

But no. 

[The Real timschochet 6,549]

2 minutes ago, Horseman said:

If 538's aggregate is 4 points.  Even his bias asss wouldn't make a statement based on one YouGov poll.  

Again, you're willfully ignorant or just fat out lying.  Stop making stuff up.  

He’s not making the comment based on one poll or aggregate polling, he’s talking about Election Day. If Harris wins the popular vote by 4 points she will win the election.

[The Real timschochet 6,549]

1 minute ago, Horseman said:

And this is the type of BS response you post any time you get called out for lying.

Yeah whatever.  

You're incapable of defending your own BS.

You seem upset this morning. So here is a hint for you since you appear to be incapable of subtlety: if I use a phrase like “hey man” then whatever I write next is most likely tongue in cheek. 

[Horseman 2,438]

1 minute ago, The Real timschochet said:

He’s not making the comment based on one poll or aggregate polling, he’s talking about Election Day. If Harris wins the popular vote by 4 points she will win the election.

Which is what his aggregate popular poll tries to predict.  FFS 

You can't trot out his comment and compare it to a single YouGov poll.  

You're way over your ski tips trying to interpret any kind of data/polling.  You're just not smart enough, or purposely lying.

[The Real timschochet 6,549]

13 minutes ago, Strike said:

Then why are you ignoring so many polls?  They're not from right leaning sources.  If you were serious you wouldn't be cherry picking polls.

Each morning (assuming I have time) I look up polling and post the latest ones that strike me as important. Sometimes they favor Trump like yesterday. Mostly they favor Harris. That’s because Harris is winning. If you think that’s cherry picking oh well. 

[Horseman 2,438]

2 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

You seem upset this morning. So here is a hint for you since you appear to be incapable of subtlety: if I use a phrase like “hey man” then whatever I write next is most likely tongue in cheek. 

You also need to stop projecting faux emotion.  How many logic fallacies are you going to work your way through trying to sound smart? 

[The Real timschochet 6,549]

Just now, Horseman said:

Which is what his aggregate popular poll tries to predict.  FFS 

You can't trot out his comment and compare it to a single YouGov poll.  

You're way over your ski tips trying to interpret any kind of data/polling.  You're just not smart enough, or purposely lying.

He’s not connected with 538 anymore. And I pointed out his comment because I was pointing out that if the YouGov poll is correct that’s great news for Harris. 
 

And dude don’t even try to tell me how to analyze polls. I’m better at this in my sleep than you could ever be. 

[The Real timschochet 6,549]

1 minute ago, Horseman said:

You also need to stop projecting faux emotion.  How many logic fallacies are you going to work your way through trying to sound smart? 

I don’t need to try to sound smart. Especially when I’m responding to you. 

[Horseman 2,438]

Just now, The Real timschochet said:

He’s not connected with 538 anymore. And I pointed out his comment because I was pointing out that if the YouGov poll is correct that’s great news for Harris. 
 

And dude don’t even try to tell me how to analyze polls. I’m better at this in my sleep than you could ever be. 

Liar. Again.

[Hardcore troubadour 15,171]

26 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Hey man in this thread I am just trying to provide an objective view. 

Why don’t you tell us how Kamala is going to lower the cost of rent by going after landlords that charge to much. Also, it’s costing the taxpayers 352 dollars a night to house migrants in hotels. What about those landlords? 

[Horseman 2,438]

Hey guys, I pick and choose which polls I find interesting, if that's cherry picking Oh Well!

Ha Ha!

 

[Horseman 2,438]

5 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

I don’t need to try to sound smart. Especially when I’m responding to you. 

Ad hominem

[posty 2,657]

What the hell is a moat poll?

[Engorgeous George 2,249]

1 minute ago, posty said:

What the hell is a moat poll?

One which polls the immediate surroundings of the castle.

[Horseman 2,438]

Wow, based on aggregate polling 538 has Kackala's chances of winning down to 53% now (was 55% yesterday and 60% last week).  Momentum!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

@The Real timschochet tried to lie to us saying it was 95% upthread.