Trump talk only- no Eagles talk allowed (Steelers talk is OK though)

[thegeneral 2,970]

Just now, TimHauck said:

Lol -

https://twitter.com/NoLongerBennett/status/1825214221681926167
 

 

That is common thread among the ultra right wing paranoids. The ones making money on it are shilling camping food.

[iam90sbaby 2,497]

Trump wins. 

Betting odds way in our favor.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president

Gfy @The Real timschochet

[Engorgeous George 2,162]

4 minutes ago, iam90sbaby said:

Trump wins. 

Betting odds way in our favor.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president

Gfy @The Real timschochet

Tim found himself in a bit of a conundrum when he tried to count his chickens before they were hatched.  Now you make the same error.  Perhaps it will work out better for you than it did for Tim.

[Strike 5,238]

4 minutes ago, Engorgeous George said:

Tim found himself in a bit of a conundrum when he tried to count his chickens before they were hatched.  Now you make the same error.  Perhaps it will work out better for you than it did for Tim.

The difference being, of course, that Tim had a formal bet while 90sbaby is just spitballing on a low rent FF message bored.

[Engorgeous George 2,162]

Just now, Strike said:

The difference being, of course, that Tim had a formal bet while 90sbaby is just spitballing on a low rent FF message bored.

Not in his mind, perhaps.  Formal bets do not have their terms unilaterally changed by only one party to the bet.  They are not then subject to outside judgments when only one party agrees to that judgment and claims they will withdraw from the bet if that judgment they sought is in their favor.  When they lose that judgment on the changed parameters they sought, formal bets are paid off.  The winner is not given payment ultimatums while being excoriated for having won and told payment will not be forthcoming if the ultimatums (additional conditions) are not met.  Tim had a conditional, subjective, evolving terms bet.  Not a formal one.

[Strike 5,238]

4 minutes ago, Engorgeous George said:

Not in his mind, perhaps.  Formal bets do not have their terms unilaterally changed by only one party to the bet.  They are not then subject to outside judgments when only one party agrees to that judgment and claims they will withdraw from the bet if that judgment they sought is in their favor.  When they lose that judgment on the changed parameters they sought, formal bets are paid off.  The winner is not given payment ultimatums while being excoriated for having won and told payment will not be forthcoming if the ultimatums (additional conditions) are not met.  Tim had a conditional, subjective, evolving terms bet.  Not a formal one.

Well my point was mainly that 90sbaby almost definitely won't fare WORSE than Tim since he doesn't have a bet to honor.

You don't sound like someone who has forgiven Tim as you have claimed though LOL

[iam90sbaby 2,497]

17 minutes ago, Engorgeous George said:

Tim found himself in a bit of a conundrum when he tried to count his chickens before they were hatched.  Now you make the same error.  Perhaps it will work out better for you than it did for Tim.

Not looking good for you at this point, hope you enjoy another 4 years of trump.

12 minutes ago, Strike said:

The difference being, of course, that Tim had a formal bet while 90sbaby is just spitballing on a low rent FF message bored.

I am betting on it though, through predictit.org. 

[iam90sbaby 2,497]

1 minute ago, Strike said:

Well my point was mainly that 90sbaby almost definitely won't fare WORSE than Tim since he doesn't have a bet to honor.

You don't sound like someone who has forgiven Tim as you have claimed though LOL

What did Tim do? Haven't checked the bored in a few weeks 

[Strike 5,238]

2 minutes ago, iam90sbaby said:

What did Tim do? Haven't checked the bored in a few weeks 

Tims was months ago when he bet a bunch of people Biden would be the Dem nominee for President and then asked everyone to pay him and concede the bet BEFORE Biden was the nominee.

[Engorgeous George 2,162]

5 minutes ago, Strike said:

Well my point was mainly that 90sbaby almost definitely won't fare WORSE than Tim since he doesn't have a bet to honor.

You don't sound like someone who has forgiven Tim as you have claimed though LOL

I never claimed I had forgiven Tim.  I only stated I accepted his apology in lieu of payment, as I have.

[Engorgeous George 2,162]

5 minutes ago, iam90sbaby said:

What did Tim do? Haven't checked the bored in a few weeks 

Not worth rehasing.   I should not have brought it up in his absence as he is not here to defend himself for his indefensible behavior.

[The Real timschochet 6,482]

24 minutes ago, Engorgeous George said:

Not worth rehasing.   I should not have brought it up in his absence as he is not here to defend himself for his indefensible behavior.

Hey there, checking in. Well, look if my behavior was indefensible then I can hardly defend it, right? In any case I apologized for it months ago so I don’t see the point in looking back. 

Been really busy this last week and it was good to spend time away from here. I still don’t know how much time I will have to post now. Not much I expect. 

I remain optimistic about Tuesday. Optimism is not the same as certainty. I’m amazed how so many people here (on both sides!) seem certain about the outcome. I’m not even certain it leans in one direction. I sure wouldn’t be betting on it at this point (but then, despite my seeming reputation here I’m not really a gambler.) 

Nonetheless I predict Harris wins Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada, all by close numbers, and the Presidency. She loses Georgia and North Carolina. Thats my final prediction and I’ll stick with it. I will eat my crow willingly (not happily) if I’m wrong. 
 

Other thoughts can wait. 

[jerryskids 6,580]

1 hour ago, TimHauck said:

Also claims to have every IP address in the whole world, which seems unlikely 

Quote

Your local IP (Internet Protocol) address is the unique internet location of your home computer network, or the unique local address of your work computer. Unless you use a VPN (Virtual Private Network) when you access the internet at home, your IP address remains public.

https://whatismyipaddress.com/how-someone-can-find-your-ip-address-and-what-they-can-do-with-it#:~:text=Your local IP (Internet Protocol,your IP address remains public.

 

[TimHauck 2,633]

8 hours ago, jonmx said:

Lol...you idiots really think a statement by some second rate comic is going to flip votes?  So stupid.  

https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1851694289308594277
 

Not sure why Twitter isn’t embedding like usual today 

 

NEWS Nicky Jam, who stood on stage with Donald Trump one month ago while wearing a MAGA hat, says he is withdrawing his endorsement of the former president. Nicky, whose father is Puerto Rican, tells his 43 million followers on Instagram that he supported Trump because he thought he would be good for the economy, but he can’t look past the disrespect that’s been shown toward Puerto Rico.
 

 

 

[jbycho 611]

6 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1851694289308594277
 

Not sure why Twitter isn’t embedding like usual today 

 

NEWS Nicky Jam, who stood on stage with Donald Trump one month ago while wearing a MAGA hat, says he is withdrawing his endorsement of the former president. Nicky, whose father is Puerto Rican, tells his 43 million followers on Instagram that he supported Trump because he thought he would be good for the economy, but he can’t look past the disrespect that’s been shown toward Puerto Rico.
 

 

 

OMG!! Not Nicky Jam!! 

So weird. 

[iam90sbaby 2,497]

48 minutes ago, Strike said:

Tims was months ago when he bet a bunch of people Biden would be the Dem nominee for President and then asked everyone to pay him and concede the bet BEFORE Biden was the nominee.

Lol  

[Horseman 2,377]

4 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Been really busy this last week and it was good to spend time away from here. 

I sure wouldn’t be betting on it at this point (but then, despite my seeming reputation here I’m not really a gambler.) 

Nonetheless I predict Harris wins Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada, all by close numbers, and the Presidency. She loses Georgia and North Carolina. Thats my final prediction and I’ll stick with it. I will eat my crow willingly (not happily) if I’m wrong. 

People posted your "last seen" so we know you've been reading the thread every day.  Props for not posting though, it's been nice.  Next time take some of the other rejects with you.

I posted last night that a WI-MI-PA parlay for her is at +810 odds.   To win AZ and NV too puts that at, wait a minute.......

 

ALERT

 Trump now -210 to -215  

ODDS MOVED A FULL DIME SINCE YESTERDAY

 

Anyway the odds she wins all those states is +7133  NOT HAPPENING

[iam90sbaby 2,497]

47 minutes ago, Engorgeous George said:

Not worth rehasing.   I should not have brought it up in his absence as he is not here to defend himself for his indefensible behavior.

Tim was a phaggot, glad he's gone 

[squistion 1,969]

https://x.com/Politics_Polls/status/1851659222523445509

#NEW @CNN poll:

WISCONSIN Harris 51% (+6)

Trump 45%

MICHIGAN

Harris 48% (+5)

Trump 43%

PENNSYLVANIA

Harris 48%

Trump 48%

LV, 10/23-28 

[TimHauck 2,633]

14 minutes ago, jbycho said:

OMG!! Not Nicky Jam!! 

So weird. 

Well he has a vote right?

[jbycho 611]

4 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Well he has a vote right?

Beats me. 

I simply don't know why you take some no nothing guy and highlight his choosing to vote for mass immigration over economic prosperity. Should we all be highlighting all the people we know and say who they are going to vote for as if this is of any interest to anyone?  

[Horseman 2,377]

19 minutes ago, jerryskids said:

Unless you use a VPN (Virtual Private Network) when you access the internet at home, your IP address remains public.

Correct. 

Mike can tell it's a GutterBoy alias with a right click of his mouse if GutterBoy doesn't use a VPN to spoof his IP.  That's a feature of the Invision software to keep people not wanted from joining the forums repeatedly.   For example.  

Once in a great while your internet service provider might change your IP, new modem or update, but generally it remains the same.  Anyone with the right software can tell what your IP is.  Most people would have to go through the internet provider to connect it to a person and address.  Joe Public can get the general area usually though.  Websites like what's my IP will tell you what city the IP is located in.  

 

[The Real timschochet 6,482]

10 minutes ago, Horseman said:

People posted your "last seen" so we know you've been reading the thread every day.  Props for not posting though, it's been nice.  Next time take some of the other rejects with you.

I posted last night that a WI-MI-PA parlay for her is at +810 odds.   To win AZ and NV too puts that at, wait a minute.......

 

ALERT

 Trump now -210 to -215  

ODDS MOVED A FULL DIME SINCE YESTERDAY

 

Anyway the odds she wins all those states is +7133  NOT HAPPENING

Sure I’ve been reading the thread when I can (and others.) Just haven’t had time to post. Frankly I don’t believe you when you say you wish I would take others with me; your whole existence here is responding to people you disagree with. If we all left you would have no purpose. 

You already made your math point earlier this morning. But I know that you know that elections don’t work that way. This isn’t a trifecta. If Harris wins Michigan she is likely to win Wisconsin. If she wins Wisconsin she is likely to win Pennsylvania. The odds don’t keep increasing the way you project. 

[TimHauck 2,633]

7 minutes ago, jbycho said:

Beats me. 

I simply don't know why you take some no nothing guy and highlight his choosing to vote for mass immigration over economic prosperity. Should we all be highlighting all the people we know and say who they are going to vote for as if this is of any interest to anyone?  

@jonmx said the comment wasn’t going to flip votes, this guy said he is flipping.  And he has 4.8 million followers on x, so others may value his opinion.

But I’m sure you or jon will say he’s flipping because he’s on the diddy list or some nonsense.

[GunZ 8]

  tim!  

[jonmx 2,424]

The bootlicking left is going to be in for a major shock when Trump wins bigly. 

YOU ARE BEING LIED TO YOUR PROPAGANDA MEDIA.  

[The Real timschochet 6,482]

1 minute ago, GunZ said:

  tim!  

Hey man! 

[GunZ 8]

1 minute ago, jonmx said:

The bootlicking left is going to be in for a major shock when Trump wins bigly. 

YOU ARE BEING LIED TO YOUR PROPAGANDA MEDIA.  

Go ahead and say “Red Wave” jon.  I dare you. 

[Fnord 2,062]

1 minute ago, jonmx said:

The bootlicking left is going to be in for a major shock when Trump wins bigly. 

YOU ARE BEING LIED TO YOUR PROPAGANDA MEDIA.  

Are you going to admit you were wrong when turnip doesn't win bigly? Or throw tantrums about cheating?

[The Real timschochet 6,482]

1 minute ago, jonmx said:

The bootlicking left is going to be in for a major shock when Trump wins bigly. 

YOU ARE BEING LIED TO YOUR PROPAGANDA MEDIA.  

You are quite correct that I will be quite shocked if Trump wins bigly. And I will certainly credit you if that happens. I don’t expect it. 

[Horseman 2,377]

3 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Sure I’ve been reading the thread when I can (and others.) Just haven’t had time to post. Frankly I don’t believe you when you say you wish I would take others with me; your whole existence here is responding to people you disagree with. If we all left you would have no purpose. 

You already made your math point earlier this morning. But I know that you know that elections don’t work that way. This isn’t a trifecta. If Harris wins Michigan she is likely to win Wisconsin. If she wins Wisconsin she is likely to win Pennsylvania. The odds don’t keep increasing the way you project. 

You can literally make that bet right now.  This very second. 

Says that's not how it works.   

[TimHauck 2,633]

2 minutes ago, Fnord said:

Are you going to admit you were wrong when turnip doesn't win bigly? Or throw tantrums about cheating?

Door #2

[The Real timschochet 6,482]

2 minutes ago, Horseman said:

You can literally make that bet right now.  This very second. 

Says that's not how it works.   

OK. I think you understood me. 
 

I will stick with my prediction. 

[jerryskids 6,580]

38 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1851694289308594277
 

Not sure why Twitter isn’t embedding like usual today 

 

NEWS Nicky Jam, who stood on stage with Donald Trump one month ago while wearing a MAGA hat, says he is withdrawing his endorsement of the former president. Nicky, whose father is Puerto Rican, tells his 43 million followers on Instagram that he supported Trump because he thought he would be good for the economy, but he can’t look past the disrespect that’s been shown toward Puerto Rico.
 

 

 

It would be funny, and somehow typical, if Trump loses this because he brought in a roaster for the MSG rally, that roaster did roaster things, and Trump couldn't simply say afterwards "yeah, we didn't expect that, it went too far.  I love Puerto Ricans, they are great people, the best people!"  or something similarly Trumpian.

I worry about this because, anecdotally, I'm confident that there are a lot of Puerto Ricans in my little NE PA hometown these days.

[Horseman 2,377]

Just now, The Real timschochet said:

OK. I think you understood me. 
 

I will stick with my prediction. 

Parlay

You said trifecta.  

You've proved beyond the shadow of any doubt, if anyone had any left, you don't know crap about odds and betting.

[jerryskids 6,580]

I also worry about the general enthusiasm from folks like Musk about the Repubs early voting strength.  I feel like it only serves to get lazy Gen Z'ers to get off their ass and vote for Kamala, when they would rather spend election day in their parents' spare bedroom wishing the world placed more value on their French Lit degree.

[GunZ 8]

3 minutes ago, jerryskids said:

It would be funny, and somehow typical, if Trump loses this because he brought in a roaster for the MSG rally, that roaster did roaster things, and Trump couldn't simply say afterwards "yeah, we didn't expect that, it went too far.  I love Puerto Ricans, they are great people, the best people!"  or something similarly Trumpian.

I worry about this because, anecdotally, I'm confident that there are a lot of Puerto Ricans in my little NE PA hometown these days.

The exit polling for Puerto Rican voters will be interesting for sure.  And one of the biggest own goals in history if they prove to be decisive.  

[The Real timschochet 6,482]

3 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Parlay

You said trifecta.  

You've proved beyond the shadow of any doubt, if anyone had any left, you don't know crap about odds and betting.

Well you’re right. I don’t pretend to. But I know that there is a flaw in your assertions. Because if winning all 3 blue states is +810 for Kamala then Trump winning the election should be much greater than -215. (I’m not saying there is a flaw in the betting odds, though that might be true as well- I’m saying there is a flaw in YOUR analysis.) 

[The Real timschochet 6,482]

8 minutes ago, jerryskids said:

It would be funny, and somehow typical, if Trump loses this because he brought in a roaster for the MSG rally, that roaster did roaster things, and Trump couldn't simply say afterwards "yeah, we didn't expect that, it went too far.  I love Puerto Ricans, they are great people, the best people!"  or something similarly Trumpian.

I worry about this because, anecdotally, I'm confident that there are a lot of Puerto Ricans in my little NE PA hometown these days.

Not that this wouldn’t make me happy but it also depresses me a little. To think that all of the offensive things that Trump himself has said over the years and even recently didn’t move the needle but some comment made by a comedian most people had never heard of does? 

If I was Puerto Rican I would be pissed off about Trump resisting sending aid to the island in 2017 much more than I would about this story. According to what I’ve read, they were willing to forget about 2017 before this garbage thing, and you know why? Because when they got their stimulus checks in 2020, it had Donald Trump’s name on it. And apparently that’s all it took. 
 

 

[Horseman 2,377]

11 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Well you’re right. I don’t pretend to. But I know that there is a flaw in your assertions. Because if winning all 3 blue states is +810 for Kamala then Trump winning the election should be much greater than -215. (I’m not saying there is a flaw in the betting odds, though that might be true as well- I’m saying there is a flaw in YOUR analysis.) 

I'm not analyzing anything.  It's the REAL offshore betting odds.  Those numbers mean things.  

MATH.  That's it. No magic.

The implied probability of Kamala winning all WI-MI-PA-AZ-NV is a 1.4% chance. That's mathematically equivalent +7133 American Odds

The implied probability of Kamala winning all WI-MI-PA is a 11.0% chance.   That's mathematically equivalent +810 American Odds

The implied probability of Trump winning the presidency is a 68.3% chance.  That's mathematically equivalent to -215 American Odds.