Round One-Three Commentary - July Mock 2024

[WhiteWonder 2,416]

1.4 Breece Hall - it’s no secret I am big on Hall. I was between Hall and Chase with this pick but I felt there were enough receivers that I would be happy with a duo I could get at the 2/3 turn and still even take my RB2 there if I wanted

2.9 Drake London - I expected him to go sooner. Seems like MHJ has moved up the board and London maybe down a bit more toward where I am comfortable taking him… at least for this mock. So I was very happy he lasted 

3.4 I like James Cook but Hall has a week 12 bye (as does London) so I’m glad he wasn’t staring me in the face. I had one receiver initially penciled in but decided to go with Pittman. I am a little concerned with what I still feel is a bit of unknown at QB over there but I am at least confident that Pittman will be fed regardless. 
 

fairly pleased thus far. No one I hoped or thought would last to my pick was sniped. Have not felt like I had to “settle” yet, so it’s all been my own choices… if that makes any sense. 

[Ray_T 685]

50 minutes ago, Vikings4ever said:

I like Jacobs in this area. Pittman likely would have been my pick if WW took JJ, but RB's likely to be completely meh by my next pick so I'm happy to get my RB2.

initially my plan was to take a WR and a RB at the turn, but the run on WR at the start made me pivot.  but if I'd have followed the original plan he was one of the guys I was hoping would fall to me at the end of round 3.

[Hawkeye21 2,096]

Man, you guys moved really fast that round.

I rarely take a TE this early but I wanted to try something different this year.  Figured I'd lock up a key player at RB, WR and TE right away.

[The Football Guru 219]

I decided I wanted to live a little here. This will probably be the only share of Achane I get this year, but I'll roll the dice on his upside and try to find a more stable option later.

[Ray_T 685]

17 minutes ago, The Football Guru said:

I decided I wanted to live a little here. This will probably be the only share of Achane I get this year, but I'll roll the dice on his upside and try to find a more stable option later.

in a best ball format, its all about the upside.   Especially at this position.  if he gets 200 yards one week and zero the next, you are not actually getting zero.   You're getting what the 3rd best RB on your roster is getting.

so his ups and downs will be forgiveable so long as his good games are big like they were last year.

further to this, his ADP last I checked was #24 overall.   so by both standards this is a decent pick at this point in the draft.   especially if you have a need at RB

[WhiteWonder 2,416]

6 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

in a best ball format, its all about the upside.   Especially at this position.  if he gets 200 yards one week and zero the next, you are not actually getting zero.   You're getting what the 3rd best WR on your roster is getting.

so his ups and downs will be forgiveable so long as his good games are big like they were last year.

further to this, his ADP last I checked was #24 overall.   so by both standards this is a decent pick at this point in the draft.   especially if you have a need at RB

True but I believe the July Mock is still intended to be mocked as if it were a regular 12 team redraft, not specifically as a best ball league or a best ball total points league. We only started doing that a few years ago for fun to track things. 
sometimes hard not to draft a little bit with that in mind but as a tool for the site I would say monster weeks followed by unstartable weeks makes Achane a riskier pick in regular redraft … if that’s what you think he will be. 

[Ray_T 685]

2 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

True but I believe the July Mock is still intended to be mocked as if it were a regular 12 team redraft, not specifically as a best ball league or a best ball total points league. We only started doing that a few years ago for fun to track things. 
sometimes hard not to draft a little bit with that in mind but as a tool for the site I would say monster weeks followed by unstartable weeks makes Achane a riskier pick in regular redraft … if that’s what you think he will be. 

he is.   no question.  but I think part of his issue was that he wasnt healthy all year long.   its still a decent pick if you think he stays healthy

[robb 78]

1 minute ago, Ray_T said:

he is.   no question.  but I think part of his issue was that he wasnt healthy all year long.   its still a decent pick if you think he stays healthy

Say Ray, I’ll be around tonight so if we get the chance would you be up to get our 4 picks out of the way and get the 3/4 turn completed?

[remote controller 143]

I'm excited about the Texan's offense and feel Mixon was an upgrade to it.  With the receiving targets they have, he should have plenty of room to work both running and receiving.

[Ray_T 685]

11 minutes ago, robb said:

Say Ray, I’ll be around tonight so if we get the chance would you be up to get our 4 picks out of the way and get the 3/4 turn completed?

I am in Alberta, Canada.  its 3pm here wont be an issue for me

[The Football Guru 219]

38 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

in a best ball format, its all about the upside.   Especially at this position.  if he gets 200 yards one week and zero the next, you are not actually getting zero.   You're getting what the 3rd best RB on your roster is getting.

so his ups and downs will be forgiveable so long as his good games are big like they were last year.

further to this, his ADP last I checked was #24 overall.   so by both standards this is a decent pick at this point in the draft.   especially if you have a need at RB

Agree. It was between Mixon and Achane for me, and I thought it was worth a dice roll to see if Mixon fell a bit longer (b/c I didn't expect Achane to drop any further). I like enough of the mid-range backs in the 4-5 round range to feel good about my choice. I don't think Achane's role increases significantly, but I believe the spike weeks will still be there from time to time. I trust myself to draft well enough to hang around at RB while I let Jefferson and Adams do their things.

[remote controller 143]

1.09 - Chase

2.04 - Nacua

3.09 - Mixon

I had the 2 wideouts and needed to grab a running back.  I'm pleased so far.

[Ray_T 685]

Wanted to Take Deebo and Pickens here.   nice floor for Deebo due to rush yards and if Aiyuk leaves/holds out his ceiling will be higher.  Either way, I needed a WR so I took the next WR on my list which was Pickens.   an 1100 yard WR with a QB who is not starting in the NFL anymore.   I have to think the change to Wilson should help his numbers (at least on the TD side if not overall)

Waddle (round 4) I considered a reasonably safe pick.  only downside risks is injury to himself or Tua, but I was willing to accept this risk at this point in the draft.

 

[robb 78]

I wanted either Mixon or Achene, but both got sniped in front of me. I had told myself if that happened then I would take a QB instead. So, Hurts in round 4 appears to be good value and I wouldn’t get any of the other top QBs 21 picks later.

[Mr. Landry 29]

There were four options I considered at 3.10 and went with what I think is the best upside (hoping one of the other three would make it back).  However, picking Kupp made me throw up in my mouth a little.  He submarined my team last year as my first round pick.  I know he's getting up there in age, but he put up solid WR2 numbers last year when he was healthy and Stafford was not afraid to look his way.  Of the eleven games Kupp and Nakua played in and finished together, Kupp out-targeted Nakua in six of them.  I think if he stays healthy he'll be an excellent WR2 for my team.

[Vikings4ever 533]

6 minutes ago, Mr. Landry said:

There were four options I considered at 3.10 and went with what I think is the best upside (hoping one of the other three would make it back).  However, picking Kupp made me throw up in my mouth a little.  He submarined my team last year as my first round pick.  I know he's getting up there in age, but he put up solid WR2 numbers last year when he was healthy and Stafford was not afraid to look his way.  Of the eleven games Kupp and Nakua played in and finished together, Kupp out-targeted Nakua in six of them.  I think if he stays healthy he'll be an excellent WR2 for my team.

I really hesitate on Puka so early because I don't think Kupp's ready to roll over and die, and I don't know that Stafford can support 2 super high end WRs and this point.

[Ray_T 685]

32 minutes ago, Vikings4ever said:

I really hesitate on Puka so early because I don't think Kupp's ready to roll over and die, and I don't know that Stafford can support 2 super high end WRs and this point.

there is also the risk that he gets hurt.  health has been a concern for Stafford.

but given Kupps Ceiling I can see McVay finding creative ways to keep them both productive.   I also noticed Puka was not nearly as productive when Kupp was on the field (on average) so this made me think its not a given that Puka is better than Kupp for fantasy (though I fully admit its possible)

and also Kupps last couple years were not where they should be but he was also injured.  I think he gets a chance to prove he can still play just because of how high he proved his ceiling can be.

[The Football Guru 219]

We'll see where my projection process takes me, but I expect a reboot of Kupp and Robert Woods from a few years ago.

[remote controller 143]

2 hours ago, Vikings4ever said:

I really hesitate on Puka so early because I don't think Kupp's ready to roll over and die, and I don't know that Stafford can support 2 super high end WRs and this point.

The nice thing is is that I did not select him as a #1 wr.  He is my #2 and I'm fine with that.

[polecatt 436]

Let's see...

1-1  RB, Christian McCaffrey, SF

2-12  WR, Mike Evans, TB

3-1,  WR Nico Collins, Hou

I think that's about as well as I could have hoped for. I guess it was just a matter of doubling up on RB with CMC or two WRs.

I think the better pick was the two WRs

[polecatt 436]

29 minutes ago, remote controller said:

The nice thing is is that I did not select him as a #1 wr.  He is my #2 and I'm fine with that.

He's an excellent WR2