LIBERATION DAY: USA and China agree to a 90 day pause on most new tariffs

[The Real timschochet 6,669]

4 minutes ago, CaptainObvious1 said:

This thread is stupid and unnecessary

The why post in it? Why read it? You guys always crack me up. 

[CaptainObvious1 368]

1 minute ago, The Real timschochet said:

No he hasn’t. In fact nearly every day he has come up with a different justification: 

1. Because the other countries tariffs are high. 
2. To stop the flow of fentanyl. 
3. To stop illegal immigration. 
4. To replace income tax. 
5. Because tariff is such a beautiful word.

6. As a punishment for this or that slight. 

 

I could go on and on. He has no coherent reason for any of this. 

You're lashing out because you're a toddler pissed at the election but still no need to outright just make up sh!t and start a thread.

[Tebok 442]

Dow is down almost 1,000 points from the record set under Biden.

[Beaker15 237]

Another idiotic thread by a lefty 

[CaptainObvious1 368]

Just now, The Real timschochet said:

The why post in it? Why read it? You guys always crack me up. 

If tariffs are stupid and unnecessary, then why post about them?  Idiot.

[The Real timschochet 6,669]

1 minute ago, supermike80 said:

G0DDAMN it.  Are we doing this again?   DOW today is down 1%  If you fock wads don't stop calling it a PLUNGE I'm gonna lose it.

Seriously   STOP...Stop parroting your craptastic media.

I’m worried about the trends. If you’re not then you’re not. Why do you care enough to “lose it?” 

[supermike80 1,888]

1 minute ago, The Real timschochet said:

I’m worried about the trends. If you’re not then you’re not. Why do you care enough to “lose it?” 

Because it's irresponsible and I get so sick and tired of you guys taking a CNN, or MSNBC article, which is always biased, and repeating it here and showing you are incapable of rational discussion.   All you can do is swallow what the media is giving you.

I lose it at how stupid people are, and how easily led they are.  It just irritates me.  Tim you're one of the worst of course, that's pretty well documented.

And dishonest(liar) as well.  You posted about the Walmart and the PLUNGE!  Then when I told you you were a fool to not even think for yourself, you immediately turned it into "I am worried about the trends."  Completely changing what you said.  You lie so often and so frequently you can't even catch yourself anymore

[RLLD 4,202]

1 minute ago, supermike80 said:

Because it's irresponsible and I get so sick and tired of you guys taking a CNN, or MSNBC article, which is always biased, and repeating it here and showing you are incapable of rational discussion.   All you can do is swallow what the media is giving you.

I lose it at how stupid people are, and how easily led they are.  It just irritates me.  Tim you're one of the worst of course, that's pretty well documented.

And dishonest(liar) as well.  You posted about the Walmart and the PLUNGE!  Then when I told you you were a fool to not even think for yourself, you immediately turned it into "I am worried about the trends."  Completely changing what you said.  You lie so often and so frequently you can't even catch yourself anymore

Well said 

[Mark Davis 392]

Just now, The Real timschochet said:

I m not a day trader and no, one drop doesn’t bother me. But the signs don’t look good. These tariffs are a bad thing, and they’re stupid and unnecessary. 

You’re a thoughtful poster and I respect that. Whatever @Strike thinks I’m not trying to fearmonger here. But I honestly believe that we’re headed for a sh!t show and I don’t understand why we’re doing this. It’s not too late for Trump to reverse himself but it’s going to take public pressure to convince him. 

You have to do what you think is right.  If you honestly believe that, you should pull money off the table.  It's not like you're selling at a discount right now if you did, the market is still running near all time highs.  It's been my experience that the hardest thing to do is hold strong and put more money to work when things look bleak.  But my worst feelings about markets were never from a political leaning or even a  particular policy outlook, it was about the day to day drubbing the market administered.  I mean to be honest, I felt like Covid would hurt the housing market and my rentals but I got an opportunity in 2021 to buy a house that I just felt like I had to take.  I figured I'd get under water awhile but end up fine based on the economics, location, etc.  That thing hasn't been behind a day since I closed on it.  When it comes to stocks, there have only been a couple times I remember in my lifetime it got really that kind of feeling and I'm 50. 

In 2008 it seemed like we were going down every day.  The SP500 lost 38.49% that year.  I had just gotten married, buying a larger house.  The housing crisis was going on, my wife and I both had homes to sell.  In hindsight, the right move would have been to not sell depressed assets but keep those as rentals.  It's easy to say now when I'm established and have the funds but those times caused me to raise cash and play it more safe and I regret that.  You don't get do overs in the financial world and I learned a lesson.

In 2020 during Covid I didn't see the V shaped market recovery some did.  While I held strong, I didn't put the capital to work I should have to take full advantage.  So definitely not a poor performance, but when panic hits the market, assets get cheap and I didn't buy what I should have in volume.  Again, did well investing and holding, but the "safe" money I had on the sideline I was waiting to deploy more and waited too long. I kept waiting for that lower price the next day and eventually those days quit coming.

Those two markets were uniquely bad.  It would take a prolonged period of economic pain to cause anything similar now.  I can't say there won't be another, but you may only see 2-3 markets like that in a lifetime that present both those kinds of challenges and therefore opportunities.  If December 31, 2040 the SP 500 is going to end up at the same point regardless, we are better off with dips to buy cheaper along the way.  Kind of my point and belief is I didn't like a lot of Biden's policies anymore than you like Trump's.  But I think to see anything like either of those conditions I outlined it's going to take a global event, something on a much larger scale.  To trade on domestic policy short term is dangerous sledding.

[Strike 5,447]

I don't think this thread is going like the OP thought it would. 

[weepaws 3,167]

48 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/20/investing/us-stocks-walmart-outlook/index.html
 

Get ready for hard times ahead. Some of us tried to warn you that these tariffs were going to cause a lot of pain and ugliness. And it’s only just beginning…

Amen, it’s going to get a lost worse.   Much more poverty, homelessness, sad.  That’s the US government at work.  

Same team, one agenda, destroy the US.  Indeed 

[TrailGuy 554]

10 minutes ago, Beaker15 said:

Another idiotic thread by a lefty 

There's like 5 threads on why women and brown people have ruined America.  Go post in those.

[The Real timschochet 6,669]

1 minute ago, Strike said:

I don't think this thread is going like the OP thought it would. 

I thought that 90% of the folks here would disagree with me, and that you and a few others would call me a liar and hypocrite and narcissist. Isn’t that what always happens? But I also thought that, eventually, some worthwhile discussion might emerge, which makes it worthwhile. I appreciate @Mark Davis’s thoughtful contribution. 

[weepaws 3,167]

15 minutes ago, iam90sbaby said:

Get a grip dude, go outside, touch grass 

Trump placed a a price on doing that.  Shame. 

[supermike80 1,888]

24 minutes ago, Mark Davis said:

We are down 0.63% on the S&P today.  If this causes you to clinch your buttocks you don't belong in the market.  The bank down the road has a nice CD you can buy and sleep at night.

PLUNGING!!!!!!  CRATERING!!!!  Just go to read a few CNN articles.  It's what Tim does

[supermike80 1,888]

Just now, The Real timschochet said:

I thought that 90% of the folks here would disagree with me, and that you and a few others would call me a liar and hypocrite and narcissist. Isn’t that what always happens? But I also thought that, eventually, some worthwhile discussion might emerge, which makes it worthwhile. I appreciate @Mark Davis’s thoughtful contribution. 

You need to ask yourself why so many posters call you a liar.  One person, maybe he's just got it out for you.  Couple?  Maybe same guy with an alias.  But when multiple posters call you one, including ones from the old FBG board where they saw quite a a bit more of you, do it...better start looking in the mirror bub.

[Strike 5,447]

1 minute ago, The Real timschochet said:

I thought that 90% of the folks here would disagree with me, and that you and a few others would call me a liar and hypocrite and narcissist. Isn’t that what always happens? But I also thought that, eventually, some worthwhile discussion might emerge, which makes it worthwhile. I appreciate @Mark Davis’s thoughtful contribution. 

Most of us used to try to have "thoughtful" discussions with you.  Then we realized we'd spend a bunch of time on posts like his and it would be completely worthless in the long run.  You're incapable of having "thoughtful" discussion," and  you repeat the same crap over and over such as this and the other thread @supermike80 referenced so "thoughtful discussion" with you means repeating the same thing over and over a month later.  Some of us are way past that, and I'm sure @Mark Davis won't be posting as "thoughtfully" to you a  year from now as he is now.

[TBayXXXVII 2,526]

56 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/20/investing/us-stocks-walmart-outlook/index.html
 

Get ready for hard times ahead. Some of us tried to warn you that these tariffs were going to cause a lot of pain and ugliness. And it’s only just beginning…

[supermike80 1,888]

8 minutes ago, Strike said:

Most of us used to try to have "thoughtful" discussions with you.  Then we realized we'd spend a bunch of time on posts like his and it would be completely worthless in the long run.  You're incapable of having "thoughtful" discussion," and  you repeat the same crap over and over such as this and the other thread @supermike80 referenced so "thoughtful discussion" with you means repeating the same thing over and over a month later.  Some of us are way past that, and I'm sure @Mark Davis won't be posting as "thoughtfully" to you a  year from now as he is now.

I'm telling you, and I have been saying it and sometimes people just don't believe it.  Tim can't think on his own.  He just can't.  He HAS to have the media tell him what to think.  I mean that 100%.  He has never been able to think without guidance from others.  I mean a lot of people are that way--on BOF SIDEZ!!--but Timmy tries to act likes he's smarter than everyone else.  

Love the "I told you this would happen" comments he puts in his threads.  Constantly telling everyone else how dumb they are...compared to him.  Cause he gets his info from CNN!

Remember..he was sure Kamala would win.  And called you all idiots for believing otherwise.   

[Strike 5,447]

1 minute ago, supermike80 said:

I'm telling you, and I have been saying it and sometimes people just don't believe it.  Tim can't think on his own.  He just can't.  He HAS to have the media tell him what to think.  I mean that 100%.  He has never been able to think without guidance from others.  I mean a lot of people are that way--on BOF SIDEZ!!--but Timmy tries to act likes he's smarter than everyone else.  

Love the "I told you this would happen" comments he puts in his threads.  Constantly telling everyone else how dumb they are...compared to him.  Cause he get's his info from CNN!

Remember..he was sure Kamala would win.  And called you all idiots for believing otherwise.   

What I hate is when he mischaracterizes articles or data.  As in this case where he says Trump's tariffs are causing inflation but even the article he cites doesn't support that assertion.  Is he just stupid or is he purposely mischaracterizing the article?  I don't know.  I really don't.

[supermike80 1,888]

Now here......An article about the same stock market today.  notice the difference in the headline??  No fear mongering, no panic.   Gee....What a difference eh?

Stock market today: S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq slip as Walmart sinks on cautious outlook

 

[supermike80 1,888]

3 minutes ago, Strike said:

What I hate is when he mischaracterizes articles or data.  As in this case where he says Trump's tariffs are causing inflation but even the article he cites doesn't support that assertion.  Is he just stupid or is he purposely mischaracterizing the article?  I don't know.  I really don't.

Remember.....and it's important to remember this.  Tim isn't doing any of this.  He's parroting the media he consumes.  He cannot under any circumstances reason things out on his own.  

[TBayXXXVII 2,526]

34 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

But look at it over 20 years and their projections for the next decade. India’s inflation over that time is extremely high and their tariffs have also been extremely high. It’s not a coincidence. 

What you're saying and what this chart is reading, is 2 very different things.

This chart tells me that in 2000, their inflation rate has been less erratic than previousdecades.  It also tells me that in 2000, their inflation rate was around 4.3% and currently at 5.6% and trending downward.  Their rate had been higher, it has been lower, but for the bulk of the last 25 years, they've been between 4 & 6% regularly.

In 2010, it peaked at about 12%... but went as low as 3.7% just prior to COVID.  So, over that decade it was trending down regularly.  Sure, like everyone else, it went up during COVID, but its coming down.  A reasonable person would say that if it weren't for COVID, they'd probably be in the shape in 30 years.

[The Real timschochet 6,669]

7 minutes ago, supermike80 said:

Remember.....and it's important to remember this.  Tim isn't doing any of this.  He's parroting the media he consumes.  He cannot under any circumstances reason things out on his own.  

You know @supermike80 despite what you think of me I kind of like you. I enjoy reading your posts and I think you’re generally a good dude. 
So let me explain that when it comes to tariffs I’m not parroting anything. Free trade is one of my core convictions, has been for about 35 years (since I read Ludwig Von Mises and Tibor Machan in college- they’re libertarian thinkers from the Austrian school of economics.) I don’t believe in tariffs to achieve another end or as an end to themselves. I think they’re always awful. 
So when someone imposes tariffs, be it Trump or Biden or whoever, I’m going to criticize them, and I’m going to predict bad things will happen because they ALWAYS DO. That’s my own thought, my own prediction. I’m not parroting the media; they’re parroting me (which is pretty rare.) It’s true that I do tend to trust the MSM more than you or most other people in this forum, but that’s a separate topic. 

[supermike80 1,888]

10 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

What you're saying and what this chart is reading, is 2 very different things.

This chart tells me that in 2000, their inflation rate has been less erratic than previousdecades.  It also tells me that in 2000, their inflation rate was around 4.3% and currently at 5.6% and trending downward.  Their rate had been higher, it has been lower, but for the bulk of the last 25 years, they've been between 4 & 6% regularly.

In 2010, it peaked at about 12%... but went as low as 3.7% just prior to COVID.  So, over that decade it was trending down regularly.  Sure, like everyone else, it went up during COVID, but its coming down.  A reasonable person would say that if it weren't for COVID, they'd probably be in the shape in 30 years.

I am not totally understanding this.  On the chart I pulled up, just googling, India's inflation has been around 5% since 2014.   Are we saying this is out of control inflation?  And is the OP saying the reason for this 5% is solely cause of tariffs?   

[The Real timschochet 6,669]

26 minutes ago, supermike80 said:

I'm telling you, and I have been saying it and sometimes people just don't believe it.  Tim can't think on his own.  He just can't.  He HAS to have the media tell him what to think.  I mean that 100%.  He has never been able to think without guidance from others.  I mean a lot of people are that way--on BOF SIDEZ!!--but Timmy tries to act likes he's smarter than everyone else.  

Love the "I told you this would happen" comments he puts in his threads.  Constantly telling everyone else how dumb they are...compared to him.  Cause he gets his info from CNN!

Remember..he was sure Kamala would win.  And called you all idiots for believing otherwise.   

I don’t think I’m smarter than anyone else. I think anyone should realize that these tariffs were stupid and unnecessary. It frustrates me greatly that some don’t get this. Is it because they feel instinctively the need to support anything Trump does or says? I’ve no idea. But I don’t get it. 

[supermike80 1,888]

The parrot comment..Mr.  Doesn't-pay-attention.   Was for this you wrote:

"It is the fear of inflation that  caused Walmart to issue dire warnings and caused the Dow to plunge"

The DOW did not plunge.  And as I have shown, if you stay off CNN, and go to a less biased source, you get headlines that contain words like "slid"  which is far more accurate.  

[The Real timschochet 6,669]

Just now, supermike80 said:

I am not totally understanding this.  On the chart I pulled up, just googling, India's inflation has been around 5% since 2014.   Are we saying this is out of control inflation?  And is the OP saying the reason for this 5% is solely cause of tariffs?   

Not solely. This came up because a poster, @Gepetto, brought up India as a country with high tariffs and tried to argue that they had no inflation, apparently implying that there is no connection between inflation and tariffs. I disagree. India does have inflation, pretty high and even the chart I posted only shows the increase from year to year. Since India has had high tariffs ever since it became a nation in 1949, the fact is we don’t know how low their prices would be without the tariffs but it’s safe to say significantly lower than it is now. 

[Strike 5,447]

Those Tariffs are gonna kill us:

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2025-02-19/business/industry/How-Hyundai-and-Kia-plan-to-take-on-the-Trump-tariffs/2245703

[The Real timschochet 6,669]

1 minute ago, supermike80 said:

The parrot comment..Mr.  Doesn't-pay-attention.   Was for this you wrote:

"It is the fear of inflation that  caused Walmart to issue dire warnings and caused the Dow to plunge"

The DOW did not plunge.  And as I have shown, if you stay off CNN, and go to a less biased source, you get headlines that contain words like "slid"  which is far more accurate.  

It went down 600 points. Slid? Plunged? I’m not that careful with words. If you want to say slid fine. I’m not expecting a crash if that’s what you think. I’m not panicking; I apologize if you thought I was. But I don’t like the trends and I’m convinced the tariffs are driving this. 

[supermike80 1,888]

2 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Not solely. This came up because a poster, @Gepetto, brought up India as a country with high tariffs and tried to argue that they had no inflation, apparently implying that there is no connection between inflation and tariffs. I disagree. India does have inflation, pretty high and even the chart I posted only shows the increase from year to year. Since India has had high tariffs ever since it became a nation in 1949, the fact is we don’t know how low their prices would be without the tariffs but it’s safe to say significantly lower than it is now. 

Again...is 5% inflation rampant? I mean it isn't great I get that, we'd all like inflation in the 1-2% range.   But 5%?   What are we talking about here?

Also, you're making a correlation between tariffs and inflation which of course you have no evidence to support.  I mean it's your opinion, fine, but to use terms like "it's safe to say" is incorrect.

If you just changed it, stopped being so damn arrogant and said "I believe it would be lower" people might dislike you less.

[supermike80 1,888]

1 minute ago, The Real timschochet said:

It went down 600 points. Slid? Plunged? I’m not that careful with words. If you want to say slid fine. I’m not expecting a crash if that’s what you think. I’m not panicking; I apologize if you thought I was. But I don’t like the trends and I’m convinced the tariffs are driving this. 

It's not your fault.  That's my point.  And that's what I mean by you not being able to think on your own.  I'm genuinely not blaming you wholly.  The media is powerful and they have you...hook line and sinker.  So when they use words like PLUNGE  and CRATER..you repeat it, spread it and panic over it.   Your apology is accepted.  I understand you don't totally have control over these matters.

[Horseman 2,438]

Add Tim to the list of idiots along with TurdGuy that thinks 1% is the market TANKING or PLUNGING.   JFC. 

Here is the deal with WMT:  It's a nice healthy correction.  WMT is up 30% over the past 6 months, 3 times the S&P.  That wasnt sustainable.  Frankly I'm surprised some of our resident CFOs couldn't explain it. 

The market in general is overdue a correction too, has been for two years. Will we see it, who knows, but any effects from tariffs are a long ways out. 

HTH

 

[The Real timschochet 6,669]

2 minutes ago, Strike said:

Those Tariffs are gonna kill us:

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2025-02-19/business/industry/How-Hyundai-and-Kia-plan-to-take-on-the-Trump-tariffs/2245703

You seem to think this is a positive result. I don’t agree. Increased manufacturing in the USA doesn’t really benefit us if the higher prices are passed to the consumer, because history shows that in that event the results won’t be permanent. 

[supermike80 1,888]

3 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Add Tim to the list of idiots along with TurdGuy that thinks 1% is the market TANKING or PLUNGING.   JFC. 

Here is the deal with WMT:  It's a nice healthy correction.  WMT is up 30% over the past 6 months, 3 times the S&P.  That wasnt sustainable.  Frankly I'm surprised some of our resident CFOs couldn't explain it. 

The market in general is overdue a correction too, has been for two years. Will we see it, who knows, but any effects from tariffs are a long ways out. 

HTH

 

600 POINTS!!!!  OH MY GOD!!!!    1%

I suppose if I had 100 singles, and I lost one in the wind on accident, I might be a little bummed.  Not sure it would cause panic for me however.  

[Horseman 2,438]

4 minutes ago, supermike80 said:

Again...is 5% inflation rampant? I mean it isn't great I get that, we'd all like inflation in the 1-2% range.   But 5%?   What are we talking about here?

Also, you're making a correlation between tariffs and inflation which of course you have no evidence to support.  I mean it's your opinion, fine, but to use terms like "it's safe to say" is incorrect.

If you just changed it, stopped being so damn arrogant and said "I believe it would be lower" people might dislike you less.

I'd take 5% all day long. I like it.  

[The Real timschochet 6,669]

5 minutes ago, supermike80 said:

Again...is 5% inflation rampant? I mean it isn't great I get that, we'd all like inflation in the 1-2% range.   But 5%?   What are we talking about here?

Also, you're making a correlation between tariffs and inflation which of course you have no evidence to support.  I mean it's your opinion, fine, but to use terms like "it's safe to say" is incorrect.

If you just changed it, stopped being so damn arrogant and said "I believe it would be lower" people might dislike you less.

OK good point. I strongly believe it would be lower. How’s that? 

[supermike80 1,888]

1 minute ago, The Real timschochet said:

OK good point. I strongly believe it would be lower. How’s that? 

See?  That's not hard.  And I can 100% respect that.  

[supermike80 1,888]

3 minutes ago, Horseman said:

I'd take 5% all day long. I like it.  

As much as I can be an a-hole to Tim.....I'm not doing that here.   He said "Seriously? India has one of the highest inflation rates on the planet: "

Since I didn't know anything about India's inflation rate, I was curious.  So I looked.  And I see about 5% for the past 10 years or so.

Is 5% the highest on the planet?  Or one of the highest?  What am I missing?

[The Real timschochet 6,669]

2 minutes ago, supermike80 said:

As much as I can be an a-hole to Tim.....I'm not doing that here.   He said "Seriously? India has one of the highest inflation rates on the planet: "

Since I didn't know anything about India's inflation rate, I was curious.  So I looked.  And I see about 5% for the past 10 years or so.

Is 5% the highest on the planet?  Or one of the highest?  What am I missing?

Perhaps I exaggerated. It’s not 1920s Germany obviously. 5% per year is not something you want to see. 
But again I’m convinced it’s actually much higher because the rates listed don’t show how much lower prices would actually be if India allowed imports without charge.