***The 151st Running of the Kentucky Derby***

[GobbleDog 976]

1) Citizen Bull                   16-1                         11) Flying Mohawk             39-1

2) Neoequos                     69-1                         12) East Avenue                  30-1

3) Final Gambit                 17-1                         13) Publisher                       30-1

4) Rodriguez                     10-1                         14) Tiztastic                         19-1

5) American Promise      10-1                         15) Render Judgment        13-1

6) Admire Daytona          37-1                          16) Coal Battle                    33-1

7) Luxor Cafe                   15-1                          17) Sandman                         5-1

8)) Journalism                   3-1                          18) Sovereignty                   12-1

9) Burnham Square        22-1                          19) Chunk of Gold               40-1

10) Grande                       17-1                          20) Owen Almighty             40-1

 

Post time: May 3, 6:57 pm.

Gentlemen, get your dollar bills ready!  

[GobbleDog 976]

2022 Kentucky Derby when an  80-1 longshot stunned the world.  $1 Superfecta paid $321,500  

 

[listen2me 23 1,825]

Always like this thread.  Was actually just thinking about this today and goofled stuff.  

[GobbleDog 976]

Alright, time to abacus.  Same old qualifier - Eliminate horses not finishing in the top 2 in the five major prep races. Horses that merely prepped in those races account for 21 of the last 25 Derby winners (22 if not Medina Spirit dq). 17 of those 21 winners finished top two in the preps … (18 if not Medina Spirit dq).

Last year, the system lost by a photo finish nose.  The winner Mystik Dan (3^rd in Arkansas) beat Sierre Leone (1^st in Blue Grass).  This year:

Arkansas Derby

1. Sandman

2. Publisher

Blue Grass Stakes

1.Burnham Square

2. East Avenue

Wood Memorial

1. Rodriguez

2. Grande

Santa Anita Derby

1. Journalism

2. Baeza   Currently not in Derby – will be #21 if there’s a scratch

Florida Derby

1. Tappan Street  Not in Derby

2. Sovereignty

...........................................................................

Eight left… let’s widdle

#13 Publisher (34-1) Some horses break their maiden on their first race, some their second, occasionally third… this eternal optimist has entered SEVEN races and still hasn’t won. Eighth time’s a charm? I don’t think so. No maiden has won the Derby in 91 years.

#12 East Avenue (49-1) Finishing 2^nd in the Bluegrass is excusable - several recent Derby winners didn’t win their final prep.  Finishing 9^th and 10^th in the prior races is atrocious and shows what happens when he doesn’t go wire to wire. Faded down the stretch at the Bluegrass which is 1 1/8 mile long… the Derby is 1 ¼ mile.  He’ll be up front early – then buried under a cloud of dust at the finish.

#9 Burnham Square  (29-1) Always Be Cobbling, err closing.  This horse is a closer. Takes his sweet time before turning on the jets.  Went from dead last to winning by a nose in the Bluegrass. Used that strategy a few times - sometimes it worked, sometimes it didn’t. That was against fields of 7 or fewer with questionable talent. How’s he gonna fare against 19 of the world’s best? Deep closers have won the Derby, but sparingly. Perfect pace and perfect trip are required - prefectoin is rare.

……………………………………………………..

Five left. Wish I could stop here because the Derby winner will probably be one of these. Instead I have to think of dumb reasons to not pick them:

#4 Rodriguez (11-1) A speedster with big time ownership, HOF jockey and infamous trainer Barry Bonds, err Bob Baffert. Yes, the suspension is over and he’s got a fast horse - 101 Beyer speed is second only to Journalism. Only problem is the speedster aspect – can he wire the field like he did at the Wood? From the 4^th spot, he’ll use early speed to avoid being squashed out of the gate and probably lead into the stretch.  Then it gets complicated. Will he have enough juice to hold off the talented field down the final furlong? Magic Eight Ball says… ‘no – screw Baffert.’ Might not matter because with a name like Rodriguez he’ll probably get deported to El Salvador before the race even starts.

#17 Sandman (5-1) With 8 races under his belt, he’s one of the most experienced horses in the Derby. Has the look of a great thoroughbred and good bloodline. Speed figures improved every race. What’s not to like?  In spite of experience, the horse still hasn’t figured out how to run straight as he zig-zags down the stretch. 5 stakes races with only 1 win at Arkansas in which he was merely the third favorite that day. Has the dreaded #17 post which has never won the Derby. To be fair, there weren’t twenty horses racing in the early days, but the current streak is 0 for 45. Someday it’ll happen, but hopefully not anytime soon as I love a good losing streak. Stinking Cubs already broke the goat curse.

#10 Grande (23-1) The Shedeur Sanders of horses… son of Curlin (3^rd at ’07 Derby), trained by Pletcher (2 Derby wins), jockeyed by Velazquez (3 Derby wins). He’s got everything, but experience. Just 3 total races and no stakes win. The Wood Memorial is technically a major prep race, but let’s be real – it’s Grade 2. That’s like playing for Colorado in the Big 12.  The last horse to win the Derby from the Wood was Funny Cide in ‘02. Still nobody should be shocked if he does it… 97 Beyer and has lots going for him. On the flip side, he’s probably a self-entitled douche bag.   

 …………………………………………………………………..

Two left, from Santa Anita and Florida Derby. These preps account for 13 of last 25 Derby winners (15 if not Medina Spirit & Max Security dq’s).  11 of those 13 were top two in those preps. So stats are in our favor. 

#18 Sovereignty (13-1) 3 stakes races finishing 1^st, 1^st, and 2^nd ahead of several Derby entries including Sandman, Burnham Square, Tiztastic, and Neoequos. His first stakes race even took place at Churchill Downs. Respected trainer – Bill Mott, good jockey – Alvarado. Was favorite in the Florida Derby and finished strong down the stretch. His closing style might spell traffic trouble, but the main knock is SPEED or lack thereof – best Beyer is only 95, which actually declined his last outing to 92 – not exactly the resume of a Derby champion. Brisnet’s power rating ranks him 9^th in this field, indicating he desperately needs a Bob Baffert injection.

Therefore by my infallible logic the 2025 Kentucky Derby winner will be:

#8 Journalism (3-1) Yeah I know. Any idiot can pick the favorite, but I’m a special brand of idiot.  Best horse in the field by every metric with the fastest Beyer by a wide margin at 108. Raced in three graded stakes loaded with talent… won ‘em all. Stalks mid-pack and then pounces down the stretch winning by at least a full length every time.  Another son of Curlin who can overcome trouble like in the Santa Anita. Only knock – the field size. In 4 of 5 starts, there were only five horses.  Luckily drew the 8^th post which should help with the traffic compared to inside posts. If he was racing against only 7 or 8 at a time, he’d destroy them. But it’s a crowded Derby. I can accept that, as every horse that doesn’t wire the field has to deal with traffic, but not every horse is this damn good.

This helps when picking the Derby favorite -

From 2012 and earlier, no favorite had won the Derby in 20+ years (wore out chasing speedsters). Then Derby qualification rules changed to a point system to reduce speedster horses. Suddenly in 2013, '14, '15, '16, '17 and '18, the favorite won every Derby.  The favorite has now finished top three in 10 of the last 12 races.  

Tid-bit: 11 of last 14 Derby winners had a best Beyer speed of 100+ on their resume. Surprisingly, the only Derby horses with that this year: Journalism 108, Rodriguez 101, and Baeza 101 (if he gets in).  To be fair, horses have been racing less in recent years so that stat might not hold water… unless it happens again and then it’s officially the Word of God.

My long-shot is #14 Tiztastic (21-1)

Must say this feels like one of the weaker Derby fields in recent years. Stat wise Journalism far outshines the others unlike past years where the favorite had several close rivals. If he can survive the brutal traffic of the Derby, he’s got a decent shot at the Triple Crown. Feel free to mock this paragraph when he finishes dead last.

Good luck gentlemen.

[GobbleDog 976]

The unmentioned…

#1 Citizen Bull (12-1) Five stakes races, won 3. Respectable Beyer speed best 98. Only Journalism had lower odds at Santa Anita.  Unfortunately he finished 4^th - even more unfortunately he’s now post #1. Reagan was president that last time post 1 took the roses. Hasn’t progressed the way some hoped. Gonna burn all his fuel early due to the post and after that – face more speed than he’s ever dealt with before. Might get lucky and hit board, but more likely finishes mid pack.

#2 Neoequos (71-1) Led the Florid Derby heading into the stretch, but faded to 3^rd place. His prior Grd 2 race he was also in the lead, and also faded badly finishing 3^rd.  See a trend? He’s about to run the longest race of his life against the world’s best talent, and start from the #2 post. Anyone want to guess what happens? Might as well shoot him now.

#3 Final Gambit (16-1) Brad Cox trained coming off victory in Grd 3 Jeff Ruby Stakes. Bit of a closer and primarily raced on synthetic surfaces. Has a best Beyer speed of 90.  Not great. This horse is gonna fall back early and try to slowly gain ground. How much ground while eating dirt for the first time his career? Probably not much, but trainer Brad Cox wouldn’t enter him without a puncher’s chance so possibly a very lucky 4^th place, but more likely mid-pack.

 #5 American Promise (7-1) Speedster horse. 9 starts, 2 wins and neither were stakes races. His two stakes races… 5^th and 7^th.  Lukas trained and best Beyer of 95.  Nice.  No chance of winning, but can he hit the board?  Yeah, probably not.

 #6 Admire Daytona (62-1) Daytona Beach, USA!?. No, that’s Daytona as in “bonsai Pearl Harbor.” This Jap horse took 4 starts to break maiden, and eventually took 1^st in the UAE Grd 2 (no Beyer speed reported). Don’t know about foreign races, but experts say take his brother Luxor Café if you’re into the oriental thing. This one brings shame on his family.

#7 Luxor Cafe (17-1) Four straight wins, that’s nice. Were they quality? Don’t know – foreign races and none were graded stakes. Best Beyer speed - none reported. He’s son of American Pharoah and experts seem to like him saying “might hit the board” - if he doesn’t, the owner will serve him as sushi in his restaurant.  I’ll be at that restaurant having a plate of Luxor while singing the National Anthem. Remember the Alamo!

#11 Flying Mohawk (51-1) Turf horse with no dirt experience and only faced weak competition.  Beyer speed best 85. Won’t hit the board, but gaining interest from sponsors – mainly SuperGlue.

#14 Tiztastic (21-1) A closer with five stakes races finishing 3^rd or better all but once. A new jockey in last race (Rosario) helped and he won Grd 2 Louisiana Derby race with Beyer of 95. He’s faced the best talent and rarely wins, but usually competes.  Good trainer, jockey, and breading. Probably finishes on or near the board.  Odds seem long considering everything.

#15 Render Judgment (15-1) Outclassed. Three stakes races, never better than 5^th. Beyer speed best 90. Surprising they even bothered to enter him. Wish I was a rich assh0le with money to burn. Instead of just an assh0le.

#16 Coal Battle (39-1) Weird horse. Broke maiden first try, stunk next two, then a 4 race winning streak including a Grd 2 stakes win at the Rebel with Beyer speed of 91. Then regressed to 3^rd at Arkansas.  Experts say he peaked too early and they may be right, but feels under-appreciated. Might hit board, but the turtle speed keeps him out of win territory.

#19 Chunk of Gold (39-1) Four races never worst than 2^nd place, including two Grd 2 stakes races where he beat a few Derby entries including American Promise, Render Judgment, and East Avenue. Speeds improved every race to a Beyer best of 92. Small time trainer and jockey - Jareth Loveberry who moonlights as a porn star, but also took 2^nd place in the 2023 Derby on Two Phil’s.  Drew a tough post, but several wise guys are still picking him to hit the board.

#20 Own Almighty (46-1) Won Grd 3 Tampa, then finished last in the Blue Grass despite being second favorite that day. Beyer speed best 90. Trainer didn’t want to enter the Derby, but owners insisted.  Terrible post, though wouldn’t have mattered – not fast enough and too much distance. But the owners do get to wear fancy hats.  

#21 Baeza (53-1) First replacement horse in case of scratch. Took three races to break maiden before entering the Santa Anita Grd 1 race where he ran 2^nd in a field of five with a respectable Beyer of 101. Jockey Flavien Prat is currently riding Neoequos, but can (and will) change mounts if Baeza is activated. Prat’s Derby record...  4^th, 3^rd, 3^rd, 2^nd, 1^st, 10^th and 3^rd.  Incredible. The Derby win was on 65 -1 Country House in ‘19.  The jockey alone makes Baeza a contender to at least hit the board if not win, even if he’s stuck in the 20^th post.  Experts say trainer Shirreffs sending this horse to Santa Anita immediately after his maiden win spoke volumes about his belief in the talent.    

[HB Localboy 121]

8 is Great!