D Henry

[JagFan 158]

Let’s begin this debate because I think it’s one of the most polarizing situations going into drafts in a couple months.  I got him at the 24 spot last year which proved to be a great value.  Today I took him at 12 in a best ball draft.  I feel like that’s a great value considering what he did in his first year in Baltimore.  I’ll be the first to say I’m on the decline year bandwagon, but is this the year?  Dude is built like a linebacker, and didn’t look like he was losing a step.  Curious what the community here thinks.

[polecatt 478]

I thought he was gonna hit the wall last season, but he didn't...

I wouldn't be shocked if he did this season, or any season here on out, but still, getting him at 12 is crazy!

I don't think you often see a steady decline with RBs when they age out, it's usually one season, they're great, then all of a sudden, they look like they couldn't start for a high school team. So, if that trend continues, he's either gonna be a top 5 fantasy RB, or he won't be worth a roster spot...

That said, maybe a bit extreme, I think in this new age without hard hits and player safety, some of the RBs may not age out quiite as quickly as they used to

[GobbleDog 992]

Let's look at some metrics to see how old man Henry did and how much he's slowing down. Among Rbs with 90+ carries Henry ranked:

Ypc: 1st (5.9)

Yd-before-contact /att: 3rd (3.1)  

Yd-after-contact /att:  1st (2.8)

Broken tackle rate: 1st (1 per 7.7 att)

Yds over expect /att: 1st (1.77)

[weepaws 3,169]

New contract, he’s ready to go again.  

[Showboat 256]

Henry has really shown no signs of slowing down, but as mentioned RBs tend to fall off the cliff abruptly.  The end will come.  It's really just a question of whether it's this year, next year or the one after.....  Mid to late first round is probably appropriate for the risk-reward profile - any position after that would be great value.

[ICEMAN 44]

I remember saying Emmitt Smith was going to breakdown "THIS YEAR" for about 7 years. It just didn't seem possible for a human body to take that volume of punishment for 14 years! Every year for 7 years this guy proved me wrong. Henry might be built from the same timber.

ICEMAN

[JagFan 158]

1 hour ago, ICEMAN said:

I remember saying Emmitt Smith was going to breakdown "THIS YEAR" for about 7 years. It just didn't seem possible for a human body to take that volume of punishment for 14 years! Every year for 7 years this guy proved me wrong. Henry might be built from the same timber.

ICEMAN

Could you imagine Henry or Sweetness running behind those o-lines that afforded a JAG like E Smiff to do what he did?

[polecatt 478]

9 hours ago, JagFan said:

Could you imagine Henry or Sweetness running behind those o-lines that afforded a JAG like E Smiff to do what he did?

Haters gonna hate

[polecatt 478]

10 hours ago, ICEMAN said:

I remember saying Emmitt Smith was going to breakdown "THIS YEAR" for about 7 years. It just didn't seem possible for a human body to take that volume of punishment for 14 years! Every year for 7 years this guy proved me wrong. Henry might be built from the same timber.

ICEMAN

Emmitt wasn't human

[JagFan 158]

6 hours ago, polecatt said:

Haters gonna hate

Here’s my favorite E Smiff story.  He grew up in a pretty poor neighborhood in Pensacola.  After he got so big with the Cowboys, he decided to open a sports memorabilia store back in that poor neighborhood.  He was there the weekend it opened so the fans could meet him, and sign autographs.  Not only did these kids that had nothing have to buy whatever it was they wanted him to sign, but he also charged them for the autograph!  Classy guy

[Showboat 256]

7 hours ago, JagFan said:

Here’s my favorite E Smiff story.  He grew up in a pretty poor neighborhood in Pensacola.  After he got so big with the Cowboys, he decided to open a sports memorabilia store back in that poor neighborhood.  He was there the weekend it opened so the fans could meet him, and sign autographs.  Not only did these kids that had nothing have to buy whatever it was they wanted him to sign, but he also charged them for the autograph!  Classy guy

Whatever the market will bear - it is the American way.  Nobody was forcing those "poor kids" into the store to buy over-priced crap and autographs.  Really no different from any good player with a $20M contract holding out for $25M which then just leads to more  exorbitant ticket/parking/food/drink prices (not to mention more ppv games on Peacock/Prime) that fans willingly pay.

[Ray_T 753]

On 6/27/2025 at 8:35 PM, polecatt said:

I thought he was gonna hit the wall last season, but he didn't...

I wouldn't be shocked if he did this season, or any season here on out, but still, getting him at 12 is crazy!

I don't think you often see a steady decline with RBs when they age out, it's usually one season, they're great, then all of a sudden, they look like they couldn't start for a high school team. So, if that trend continues, he's either gonna be a top 5 fantasy RB, or he won't be worth a roster spot...

That said, maybe a bit extreme, I think in this new age without hard hits and player safety, some of the RBs may not age out quiite as quickly as they used to

I thought there was some risk last year due to the large workload he has had over his career.  but he was 30 at the time and was going from a lesser O ine to a better O line.  While a lot of RB's hit the wall at around 30,  I figured the odds were pretty good the two would offset each other.

I also figured a lot of his game is built around power.  Not speed.  so losing a half step will affect him but not by as much as other RB's

but now he is 31.   in terms of the # of RB who put up RB1 numbers at this age, the field has shrunk fairly substantially compared to the # of RB's who have put up RB1 numbers at the age of 30.

for me he has reached a tipping point in terms of this and I'd say the odds are at least 50-50 that he will disappoint if taken in the first 2 rounds.    So risk wise, hes a coin flip if going in round 1 or 2.

if he falls into round 3 the odds drop off a fair bit as the bar is considerably lower.

There is no doubt in my mind that whether he produces or not, this is likely his last year being drafted as a RB1(at least some will still draft him as a RB1).   and he has had one Hell of a Career.  I will admit. I am a fan.  

not many RB's in the history of the game actually run through people like he does/did.    but he is very close to the end of the line.   I really hope he has another big year, but a part of me feels like he will put up a Meh type year or will get injured and that will be his last hurrah.

to be clear, most RB careers at this age end in injury and when they come back they are unable to perform.

 

food for your thoughts.   

[JagFan 158]

4 hours ago, Showboat said:

Whatever the market will bear - it is the American way.  Nobody was forcing those "poor kids" into the store to buy over-priced crap and autographs.  Really no different from any good player with a $20M contract holding out for $25M which then just leads to more  exorbitant ticket/parking/food/drink prices (not to mention more ppv games on Peacock/Prime) that fans willingly pay.

Dude, for real?  You think taking $5mil from a rich owner is the same as taking $20 from a poor kid that can’t even afford new sneakers?  Trust me, if you’re at a game paying stadium prices for food you’re not a poor family living off of government assistance.

[Showboat 256]

 

4 hours ago, JagFan said:

Dude, for real?  You think taking $5mil from a rich owner is the same as taking $20 from a poor kid that can’t even afford new sneakers?  Trust me, if you’re at a game paying stadium prices for food you’re not a poor family living off of government assistance.

I'd say the same thing about someone paying $20 for someone's autograph.

And trust me, the extra $5M ain't coming out of the rich owner's pocket - they just increase revenues through higher prices for tickets, concessions, TV deals, stadium subsidies, etc.

[Showboat 256]

8 hours ago, Ray_T said:

for me he has reached a tipping point in terms of this and I'd say the odds are at least 50-50 that he will disappoint if taken in the first 2 rounds.    So risk wise, hes a coin flip if going in round 1 or 2.

if he falls into round 3 the odds drop off a fair bit as the bar is considerably lower.

No doubt with age there is increased risk, but there has really been nothing to suggest that Henry couldn't be the #1 fantasy back this year.  Getting a player that has a reasonable shot to tbe the #1 fantasy back in the last half of round 1 seems to be about the proper age discount.  If he falls to round 3, that would be ridiculous value (and I can't beliave there will be many leagus where he falls past round 2).

[Showboat 256]

Also, I'd hate to be in a league where the team with the #1 pick got to also pick up Henry at the 2-3 turn (unless I was the one with the #1 pick).

[polecatt 478]

18 hours ago, JagFan said:

Here’s my favorite E Smiff story.  He grew up in a pretty poor neighborhood in Pensacola.  After he got so big with the Cowboys, he decided to open a sports memorabilia store back in that poor neighborhood.  He was there the weekend it opened so the fans could meet him, and sign autographs.  Not only did these kids that had nothing have to buy whatever it was they wanted him to sign, but he also charged them for the autograph!  Classy guy

'Doesn't have a lot to do with football on the field now does it? 

[TBayXXXVII 2,531]

16 hours ago, JagFan said:

Dude, for real?  You think taking $5mil from a rich owner is the same as taking $20 from a poor kid that can’t even afford new sneakers?  Trust me, if you’re at a game paying stadium prices for food you’re not a poor family living off of government assistance.

I agree with you.  If you're going back to the poor neighborhood to run a business, that's ignorance.  If you're going back to help lift it up, charging money is something you never considered in the first place because you know they can't afford it.  The expectation would be on Smith to give not just his time and presence, but his money.  Otherwise, don't go back and pretend to care.

[TBayXXXVII 2,531]

On topic... I'll take Henry until Henry gives me a reason not to.  I'm willing bet on him.

[weepaws 3,169]

Henry is going to roll.  

[RareN64Dream 21]

Off topic, but; do y'all think I should keep Zay Flowers around #74 overall in a 2 QB start keeper league? Just asking because Flowers also plays for the Ravens. I was pretty disappointed last year Zay only got like 4 TD.

[weepaws 3,169]

I would say four to five tds is what should be expected.  

[Ray_T 753]

20 hours ago, Showboat said:

No doubt with age there is increased risk, but there has really been nothing to suggest that Henry couldn't be the #1 fantasy back this year.  Getting a player that has a reasonable shot to tbe the #1 fantasy back in the last half of round 1 seems to be about the proper age discount.  If he falls to round 3, that would be ridiculous value (and I can't beliave there will be many leagus where he falls past round 2).

I'd be surprised if he falls into round 3.   I'm just telling you where I assess the risk.

[weepaws 3,169]

Surprised, I want to join that league if Henry falls into the third rd.  

[LaChup 233]

There are two teams in the league and we are looking for a third.