Texas flooding terrible, tragic

[Fnord 2,264]

14 hours ago, BrahmaBulls said:

If you liberal d-bags making this political want to educate yourself, scroll past Chantal and ready about the Texas storm.

https://theeyewall.substack.com/p/making-sense-of-the-weather-that

 

Thanks for the link, interesting information.

I take issue with the author immediately dismissing this:

Quote

Did budget cuts play a role?

No. In this particular case, we have seen absolutely nothing to suggest that current staffing or budget issues within NOAA and the NWS played any role at all in this event. Anyone using this event to claim that is being dishonest. There are many places you can go with expressing thoughts on the current and proposed cuts. We've been very vocal about them here. But this is not the right event for those takes.

In fact, weather balloon launches played a vital role in forecast messaging on Thursday night as the event was beginning to unfold. If you want to go that route, use this event as a symbol of the value NOAA and NWS bring to society, understanding that as horrific as this is, yes, it could always have been even worse.

I understand that, for now, the author is telling the truth that there is not evidence of budget/staffing cuts had anything to do with it. There is simply no way to know this yet. What we do know is that the NWS is understaffed and are not launching as many weather balloons as they have in the past, thereby forecasters are forced to make their predictions using less data than they have had at their disposal in the past. Since we have no way of knowing what that additional data may have said, there is no way to know if that lack of data contributed to the tragedy.

The link you posted "went back" to look at models after the fact and stated that the data was there, but for whatever reason, this information does not seem to have reached the necessary parties. 20/20 hindsight and all...

Quote

I went back and looked at some of the model rainfall forecasts for the event this past week. While some of the global models did indicate heavy rainfall potential, none were really flagging a high-risk type event. Even on Thursday morning, the WPC Excessive Rain Outlook showed a slight risk (2/4) in the area. We could probably say that the catastrophic rains were isolated enough that this was still reasonable. But truth be told, this probably deserved a moderate.

Within their discussion, they did emphasize risks of 3 inches or more, which is a reasonable note to make.

The higher resolution models did do better and did lead everyone down the correct path. On Wednesday night, the 00z HRRR model had about 7-9" in a few bullseyes between Mexico and Texas by Friday morning. By Thursday morning, the model showed as much as 10 to 13 inches in parts of Texas. By Thursday evening, that was as much as 20 inches. So the HRRR model upped the ante all day.

The HREF model on Thursday morning, a tool developed from NOAA research also indicated the risk of 10" or more in spots, using the "probability matched mean" product which can identify higher risk areas for heavy rainfall. I've used this in Houston many times, often with considerable forecast success ahead of flooding events. It has a knack for cutting through some of these higher end events and highlighting those risks.

So the signals were there and got worse as Thursday progressed. Messaging and flood watches responded to this appropriately and expanded into Thursday evening.

There's also this

Quote

Crucial positions at the local offices of the National Weather Service were unfilled as severe rainfall inundated parts of Central Texas on Friday morning, prompting some experts to question whether staffing shortages made it harder for the forecasting agency to coordinate with local emergency managers as floodwaters rose.

Texas officials appeared to blame the Weather Service for issuing forecasts on Wednesday that underestimated how much rain was coming. But former Weather Service officials said the forecasts were as good as could be expected, given the enormous levels of rainfall and the storm’s unusually abrupt escalation.

The staffing shortages suggested a separate problem, those former officials said — the loss of experienced people who would typically have helped communicate with local authorities in the hours after flash flood warnings were issued overnight.

The National Weather Service’s San Angelo office, which is responsible for some of the areas hit hardest by Friday’s flooding, was missing a senior hydrologist, staff forecaster and meteorologist in charge, according to Tom Fahy, the legislative director for the National Weather Service Employees Organization, the union that represents Weather Service workers.

The Weather Service’s nearby San Antonio office, which covers other areas hit by the floods, also had significant vacancies, including a warning coordination meteorologist and science officer, Mr. Fahy said. Staff members in those positions are meant to work with local emergency managers to plan for floods, including when and how to warn local residents and help them evacuate.

That office’s warning coordination meteorologist left on April 30, after taking the early retirement package the Trump administration used to reduce the number of federal employees, according to a person with knowledge of his departure.

Some of the openings may predate the current Trump administration. But at both offices, the vacancy rate is roughly double what it was when Mr. Trump returned to the White House in January, according to Mr. Fahy.

John Sokich, who until January was director of congressional affairs for the National Weather Service, said those unfilled positions made it harder to coordinate with local officials because each Weather Service office works as a team. “Reduced staffing puts that in jeopardy,” he said.

 

[TimHauck 2,858]

7 minutes ago, HellToupee said:

You don’t do this do you? I know for a fact I was reported for something last week , I assumed it was the pigeon diddler because of his track record, do I need to suspect you as well?

Better watch out, looks like digby is back and he’s the biggest reporter here, there are often others that get caught up in his reporting sprees

[Ron_Artest 1,506]

7 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Better watch out, looks like digby is back and he’s the biggest reporter here, there are often others that get caught up in his reporting sprees

I don't think digby is back yet but I'll keep my eyes open.

[Hardcore troubadour 15,414]

5 minutes ago, Ron_Artest said:

I don't think digby is back yet but I'll keep my eyes open.

Kilroy is here. Lol. 

[TimHauck 2,858]

7 minutes ago, Ron_Artest said:

I don't think digby is back yet but I'll keep my eyes open.

I’m betting he is @Walker

[Fnord 2,264]

18 minutes ago, HellToupee said:

No feign outrage here , little squissy is a bottom feeder . You know it but are far too polite to say it. The crowd here that likes to attack one conservative poster in particular never ever look at this lowlife. Hypocrisy at its finest 

I've called Squis out before. He is absolutely one of the posters here that will turn a tragedy political quickly, but he's far from alone in that. Squis posted links to X with video directly featuring people that are close to current events stating facts about those events. It might be gauche, but it's adding context and information to a news story.

That's not exactly in the same realm as someone posting randomly about murders that took place, with no link, and immediately placing blame on a group of people that had nothing to do with it. 

Put aside your grudge with Squis and "sides" and maybe you'll see the difference.

[Ron_Artest 1,506]

8 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

I’m betting he is @Walker

I think you're right.  Looking at Walker's short posting history, he used the abbreviation "ppl".  A quick search shows who else has used this abbreviation frequently, @F1erce and @Stryker Ryker, both known Digby aliases.  Nice job Tim.

[MDC 7,407]

GC MAGAs should decide whether pointing the finger at the other side after a tragedy is fair game. They have no problem with it when it comes to blue cities or minorities.

[thegeneral 3,208]

What we should do: Give Texas all the things they need to rebuild and prevent this from happening as best possible again.

What we shouldn’t do: Be scumbags who make this a political issue.

[BrahmaBulls 763]

1 hour ago, Fnord said:

Thanks for the link, interesting information.

I take issue with the author immediately dismissing this:

I understand that, for now, the author is telling the truth that there is not evidence of budget/staffing cuts had anything to do with it. There is simply no way to know this yet. What we do know is that the NWS is understaffed and are not launching as many weather balloons as they have in the past, thereby forecasters are forced to make their predictions using less data than they have had at their disposal in the past. Since we have no way of knowing what that additional data may have said, there is no way to know if that lack of data contributed to the tragedy.

The link you posted "went back" to look at models after the fact and stated that the data was there, but for whatever reason, this information does not seem to have reached the necessary parties. 20/20 hindsight and all...

There's also this

 

Warnings were issued in time and forecasters did the best they could.  Not sure how budget cuts could be blamed.

[BrahmaBulls 763]

1 hour ago, Ron_Artest said:

I don't report people and I don't look foolish.

These are not true

[Fnord 2,264]

7 minutes ago, BrahmaBulls said:

Warnings were issued in time and forecasters did the best they could.  Not sure how budget cuts could be blamed.

The forecasters that were still working did the best they could, no doubt. Would having more of them on staff and available been beneficial? Could more lives have been saved? 

These are questions worth answering.

[seafoam1 3,017]

2 hours ago, Ron_Artest said:

I don't report people and I don't look foolish.

Wrong twice in one sentence.

 

[zsasz 369]

If this happened on Biden's watch??... The MAGA narrative would be "YEE-HAW!!!!! LETS GET UP THERE ARE ROPE HIM UP!"

Hopefully, MAGA doesn't ignore this and turns this tragedy into something positive.  

[seafoam1 3,017]

1 minute ago, zsasz said:

If this happened on Biden's watch??... The MAGA narrative would be "YEE-HAW!!!!! LETS GET UP THERE ARE ROPE HIM UP!"

Hopefully, MAGA doesn't ignore this and turns this tragedy into something positive.  

Ok rusty. 

[Engorgeous George 2,331]

2 minutes ago, Fnord said:

The forecasters that were still working did the best they could, no doubt. Would having more of them on staff and available been beneficial? Could more lives have been saved? 

These are questions worth answering.

i am guessing the anser is No!.  They had the information, they tried to disseminate that information, but due to the time of day it did not get recieved by those who needed it.  I am guessing a series of load warning sirens along the river path would have been far more effective than additional forecasters.  People needed to be woken, forecasts and warnings falling on deaf ears do no good.  Of course I am only guessing.

[Fnord 2,264]

1 minute ago, Engorgeous George said:

i am guessing the anser is No!.  They had the information, they tried to disseminate that information, but due to the time of day it did not get recieved by those who needed it.  I am guessing a series of load warning sirens along the river path would have been far more effective than additional forecasters.  People needed to be woken, forecasts and warnings falling on deaf ears do no good.  Of course I am only guessing.

You may be entirely correct. I know it doesn't seem like it, but I'm trying to look past the politics and identify the root causes of what happened. My guess is that many factors contributed, that having some of those staff in place would have helped incrementally, but even with fewer casualties we'd still be talking about a tragedy. There's no way to know, and it's not like an investigation is going to definitively provide answers we're looking for.

[Hardcore troubadour 15,414]

15 minutes ago, Fnord said:

The forecasters that were still working did the best they could, no doubt. Would having more of them on staff and available been beneficial? Could more lives have been saved? 

These are questions worth answering.

They brought in more. Usually 2, there were 5. Also, Any budget cuts haven’t take affect yet. You people suck. 

[Hardcore troubadour 15,414]

13 minutes ago, zsasz said:

If this happened on Biden's watch??... The MAGA narrative would be "YEE-HAW!!!!! LETS GET UP THERE ARE ROPE HIM UP!"

Hopefully, MAGA doesn't ignore this and turns this tragedy into something positive.  

I know what happened on Bidens watch. The FEMA official told the workers not to go to any houses that had a Trump sign after Hurricane Helene. That’s reality. But you cling to your deranged fantasy if it keeps you from going on a spree. 

[Engorgeous George 2,331]

Just now, Fnord said:

You may be entirely correct. I know it doesn't seem like it, but I'm trying to look past the politics and identify the root causes of what happened. My guess is that many factors contributed, that having some of those staff in place would have helped incrementally, but even with fewer casualties we'd still be talking about a tragedy. There's no way to know, and it's not like an investigation is going to definitively provide answers we're looking for.

Mentally I am analogizing this to tornados which hit late at night or in the early morning hours.  My memory fails a bit but it seems to me in just the past year or two we had such an event down in Tennessee or Kentucky.  The loss of life from the event was unusual and was blamed on folks not waking when the warnings were issued.  Warnings falling on deaf ears are useless in rapidly developing situations.  Myself, I grew up in a small rural community which had an extremerly loud warning siren to warn of fires and weather events.  As we had a volunteer fire department that siren had to be loud enough to wake the volunteers from sound sleep and get them into the fire station, and so then too the entire community.

 

BTW, I did not think you were politicizing the matter.  I think you were responding to those who had already gone there, and there is a difference, especially when you try to offer reasoned and measured commentary as opposed to trolling with deliberately inflammatory comments which cast those of an 'other" political conviction in a universally bad light.

[Fnord 2,264]

3 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

They brought in more. Usually 2, there were 5. Also, Any budget cuts haven’t take affect yet. You people suck. 

Bullfuckingshit. This runs DIRECTLY counter to multiple stories I've seen. Clearly you didn't read any of the articles provided and are spewing nonsense. NWS staffers accepted early buyouts. 

Give me a link for once, or STFU.

[Hardcore troubadour 15,414]

1 minute ago, Fnord said:

Bullfuckingshit. This runs DIRECTLY counter to multiple stories I've seen. Clearly you didn't read any of the articles provided and are spewing nonsense. NWS staffers accepted early buyouts. 

Give me a link for once, or STFU.

So? That means they didn’t bring in additional staff, because some people took buy outs? Your logic is flawless. If you want to convince yourself of the outcome you desire. 

[Engorgeous George 2,331]

Flood warning system will trigger sirens when water rises | News | themountaineer.com

[Fnord 2,264]

Just now, Hardcore troubadour said:

So? That means they didn’t bring in additional staff, because some people took buy outs? Your logic is flawless. If you want to convince yourself of the outcome you desire. 

You are actively convincing yourself of the outcome you desire. I've supported my statements. If you think you can prove me wrong, do it like a grown up and link something supporting your position. Unlike most here, I'll admit when I'm wrong. 

I think you heard some talking head on AM radio or Fox news this morning doing their level best to funnel all blame away from our Supreme Leader and regurgitated it here. It's just your roundabout way of gaslighting. Prove me wrong.

[The Real timschochet 6,758]

I think it’s unlikely that budget cuts could ever be proven to have contributed to this horrible tragedy. 
 

Even so, I would prefer to spend more money on FEMA rather than less, and I was dismayed by the cuts. 

[Hardcore troubadour 15,414]

Just now, Fnord said:

You are actively convincing yourself of the outcome you desire. I've supported my statements. If you think you can prove me wrong, do it like a grown up and link something supporting your position. Unlike most here, I'll admit when I'm wrong. 

I think you heard some talking head on AM radio or Fox news this morning doing their level best to funnel all blame away from our Supreme Leader and regurgitated it here. It's just your roundabout way of gaslighting. Prove me wrong.

It’s SOP to bring in additional personnel prior to an expected weather event. Unless you don’t think it is. 

[Fnord 2,264]

3 minutes ago, Engorgeous George said:

Flood warning system will trigger sirens when water rises | News | themountaineer.com

Apparently there were discussions of a similar system being put in place in Kerr county, but it was nixed due to expense. This part is NOT TRUMP'S FAULT!

There's your disclaimer, MAGA. 

[squistion 2,197]

32 minutes ago, Fnord said:

The forecasters that were still working did the best they could, no doubt. Would having more of them on staff and available been beneficial? Could more lives have been saved? 

These are questions worth answering.

And would never have been raised in the first place if not for the recent NWS staffing reductions and proposed budget cuts. 

[Fnord 2,264]

3 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

It’s SOP to bring in additional personnel prior to an expected weather event. Unless you don’t think it is. 

Fock off and link something supporting your position. You can't be trusted.

[MDC 7,407]

Remember when 67 people died in the Blackhawk crash and Trump / MAGAs didn’t wait 24 hours before blaming DEI?

I look forward to their excuses when something goes wrong with FEMA, NWS, Medicaid, etc. over the next few years.

Probably Biden’s fault.  

[Hardcore troubadour 15,414]

Just now, Fnord said:

Fock off and link something supporting your position. You can't be trusted.

So you don’t think that would be SOP? It’s a simple question. 

[Fnord 2,264]

Just now, Hardcore troubadour said:

So you don’t think that would be SOP? It’s a simple question. 

It seems rational, yes. But YOUR word means nothing to me. Show me links.

[The Real timschochet 6,758]

7 minutes ago, MDC said:

Remember when 67 people died in the Blackhawk crash and Trump / MAGAs didn’t wait 24 hours before blaming DEI?

I look forward to their excuses when something goes wrong with FEMA, NWS, Medicaid, etc. over the next few years.

Probably Biden’s fault.  

Trump already tried to blame Biden for this and then changed his mind. 

[Engorgeous George 2,331]

Reminds me of the Big Thompson flood in Colorado.

[MDC 7,407]

8 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Trump already tried to blame Biden for this and then changed his mind. 

Pointing fingers is what Don does. He’s a child.

[Fnord 2,264]

3 minutes ago, MDC said:

Pointing short, stubby, cheeto dust- covered fingers is what Don does before he licks them clean. He’s a child.

 

[Ron_Artest 1,506]

1 hour ago, BrahmaBulls said:

Warnings were issued in time and forecasters did the best they could.  Not sure how budget cuts could be blamed.

Crucial positions at the local offices of the National Weather Service were unfilled as severe rainfall inundated parts of Central Texas on Friday morning, prompting some experts to question whether staffing shortages made it harder for the forecasting agency to coordinate with local emergency managers as floodwaters rose.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/05/us/politics/texas-floods-warnings-vacancies.html?unlocked_article_code=1.UU8.21M8.MBBE3OCzrBAa&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

[Mark Davis 398]

The whole politicization of this is stupid.  When you build houses/shelter in a flood plain, well, every so often these things will happen.  Warning systems are better today than they've ever been and people have taken those risks to be near the banks of rivers.  You take a risk when you build a property there as well as in a known fault area or coastal area prone to hurricanes.  Donald Trump nor Joe Biden are going to cause the next earthquake or flood, but the next one is going to occur and people are going to die.  If you want a 100% guarantee that a tragedy of that type won't happen to you or a loved one, you can never spend time in those areas.

[jonnyutah 287]

Just would like to point out that states and the federal government should not spend one dollar rebuilding anything in that area. 

Also neither should we donate to gofundmes for that purpose. 

[BrahmaBulls 763]

7 minutes ago, Ron_Artest said:

Crucial positions at the local offices of the National Weather Service were unfilled as severe rainfall inundated parts of Central Texas on Friday morning, prompting some experts to question whether staffing shortages made it harder for the forecasting agency to coordinate with local emergency managers as floodwaters rose.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/05/us/politics/texas-floods-warnings-vacancies.html?unlocked_article_code=1.UU8.21M8.MBBE3OCzrBAa&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

JFC I'm sorry you're so stupid you need 12 government agencies to tie your shoes.  Good lord your Trump hate has turned you from dumb to retarded.