Sleeping on Barkley

[wolves111 107]

Saquon criticism this offseason has been over the top. Using history as an absolute rather than a trend with exceptions (I.e. Marshall Faulk, LT, Emmitt, Henry to name a few) the “experts” are convinced he won’t come near duplicating last year’s results.

Despite running behind the best OL in the league and playing alongside arguably the best group of skill position players he’s being drafted behind Chase, Robinson, Jefferson and Gibbs.

Ill do cartwheels if he falls to me at pick five.

 

[WhiteWonder 2,796]

Where would you have drafted him last year?

im not worried about his workload specifically as much as his previous injury history and the simple fact you’re paying for his peak. It’s hard to argue he can do better than 2024 but it’s pretty easy to argue he can do worse. 
 

we have not seen bijan or Gibbs peak yet and Chase/jefferson is just preference for WR. 
 

he’s not some sort of DND for me but not my top choice. 

[edjr 6,634]

I drafted him 8th overall last year

[Super Cubs 154]

Is anyone really being slept on at the 5th pick?  It all comes down to preference.  

If I had to make an argument against Saquon it would be he had a heavy work load last year.  Counting playoffs he had 436 carries and 46 reception.  

 

 

[nobody 2,706]

Count me in with the folks that think he'll regress.  I'd still draft him 2nd overall behind chase though.

[weepaws 3,220]

Be silly not to think Barkley’s numbers don’t match or exceed last season, but he’s still the number one rb on my board

[Ray_T 759]

9 hours ago, weepaws said:

Be silly not to think Barkley’s numbers don’t match or exceed last season, but he’s still the number one rb on my board

the only thing that likely keeps him from doing it is injury.

though the stats show after a year with that workload not a lot of RB's repeat.  and usually it is because of injury.   not sure how that correlation works.  maybe the high workload causes the injury I think thats the current line of thinking.

but I am with you.  if fully healthy, Barkley should repeat

[WhiteWonder 2,796]

He could potentially repeat but he’s not going to exceed. Guy put up an all time great season. Much more reasonable that he falls short, even if he is still a top 5 fantasy back. 
 

he’s just clearly not being slept on and I don’t think anyone needs to do cartwheels if he falls to 5. It’s perfectly reasonable for him to go after bijan, Gibbs, Chase, JJ, even potentially CeeDee in WR heavy formats 

[wolves111 107]

3 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

He could potentially repeat but he’s not going to exceed. Guy put up an all time great season. Much more reasonable that he falls short, even if he is still a top 5 fantasy back. 
 

he’s just clearly not being slept on and I don’t think anyone needs to do cartwheels if he falls to 5. It’s perfectly reasonable for him to go after bijan, Gibbs, Chase, JJ, even potentially CeeDee in WR heavy formats 

Yep good analysis. Especially since Jefferson already hurt his hammy.

Bring slept on doesn’t mean he won’t be drafted high. Being slept on means rather than ranking him 1 or 2 in the draft the experts, cough cough, are looking for reasons not to draft him where he should be drafted.

Hope that helps 

[WhiteWonder 2,796]

48 minutes ago, wolves111 said:

Yep good analysis. Especially since Jefferson already hurt his hammy.

Bring slept on doesn’t mean he won’t be drafted high. Being slept on means rather than ranking him 1 or 2 in the draft the experts, cough cough, are looking for reasons not to draft him where he should be drafted.

Hope that helps 

I’m just tossing out high ADP names that can reasonably be picked before him. Injuries are going to pop up as we move through August.

semantics I guess. To me someone being slept on is someone no one is really discussing. Plenty of people are on Barkley OR at least explaining why they don’t think he’s the top RB to draft this year or why they might prefer a top end WR.

thats all. In a start 2 RB format he is likely my #2. In formats where you only have to start 1 RB, he’s probably my #5

[Ray_T 759]

4 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

He could potentially repeat but he’s not going to exceed. Guy put up an all time great season. Much more reasonable that he falls short, even if he is still a top 5 fantasy back. 
 

he’s just clearly not being slept on and I don’t think anyone needs to do cartwheels if he falls to 5. It’s perfectly reasonable for him to go after bijan, Gibbs, Chase, JJ, even potentially CeeDee in WR heavy formats 

I cant argue with that.    on the mark as usual with your comments here. 

[wolves111 107]

3 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

I’m just tossing out high ADP names that can reasonably be picked before him. Injuries are going to pop up as we move through August.

semantics I guess. To me someone being slept on is someone no one is really discussing. Plenty of people are on Barkley OR at least explaining why they don’t think he’s the top RB to draft this year or why they might prefer a top end WR.

thats all. In a start 2 RB format he is likely my #2. In formats where you only have to start 1 RB, he’s probably my #5

Ok that makes sense. So off topic as I alluded to Jefferson apparently already pulled a hamstring. In 2023 he literally cost me the league for the same injury by missing seven games for the same injury. Coincidence it was a contract year.

Do you downgrade him for recurring hamstring issues? Is he the guy who gets paid and fades?

 

 

[weepaws 3,220]

In both of my fourteen team leagues, if Barkley is available when I’m picking, even in my ppr league, Barkley would be my pick. 

[nobody 2,706]

This is a khalil Mack leaving the raiders situation.  He went to the bears and went nuts that first year.  That's because the raiders trading him put a chip on his shoulder.  Then after that first year l, he went back to business as usual... Great player but not all-world game wrecker.

Giants basically said to saquon that he wasn't worth the money.  He signs with Philly and goes off.  He made his point.  Now he's primed to go back to just being great and not the all world game wrecker he was last season.

[WhiteWonder 2,796]

8 hours ago, nobody said:

This is a khalil Mack leaving the raiders situation.  He went to the bears and went nuts that first year.  That's because the raiders trading him put a chip on his shoulder.  Then after that first year l, he went back to business as usual... Great player but not all-world game wrecker.

Giants basically said to saquon that he wasn't worth the money.  He signs with Philly and goes off.  He made his point.  Now he's primed to go back to just being great and not the all world game wrecker he was last season.

The only part I think is comparable is the chip on their shoulder year 1 after being traded.  Otherwise, Mack got traded from a bad team to a bad team. Barkley got traded from a team with poor QB play and a putrid offensive line to one of the best situations for a running back in football. 

[LaChup 233]

They wrote a song about it. It's called "Return of the Mack."

[Ray_T 759]

On 7/25/2025 at 3:24 PM, WhiteWonder said:

Where would you have drafted him last year?

im not worried about his workload specifically as much as his previous injury history and the simple fact you’re paying for his peak. It’s hard to argue he can do better than 2024 but it’s pretty easy to argue he can do worse. 
 

we have not seen bijan or Gibbs peak yet and Chase/jefferson is just preference for WR. 
 

he’s not some sort of DND for me but not my top choice. 

the weird thing about Sequon is.... they never even fully utilized his abilities as a pass catcher last year.    he has performed at a higher level in that respect in the past.     and those are easier miles because you are catching the ball and getting hit by a DB or a LB and not a 350 Lb D lineman.

so I could see him repeating in terms of fantasy numbers even if his carries are down a bit as this part of his game wasnt utilized to the maximum extent. 

I was able to draft Sequon on the turn in the Mock draft last year, but arguably, I felt he was underrated going into last season.     and when we drafted in the IBL (inter board league) for fftoday, he went earlier and I was unable to obtain his services for my team in that particular draft.

in my opinion he is a top 5 pick.   the only question is where in the top 5 does he go?   running behind what may be the best or second best line in the NFL the results last year spoke for themselves.

[Ray_T 759]

On 7/27/2025 at 1:25 AM, nobody said:

This is a khalil Mack leaving the raiders situation.  He went to the bears and went nuts that first year.  That's because the raiders trading him put a chip on his shoulder.  Then after that first year l, he went back to business as usual... Great player but not all-world game wrecker.

Giants basically said to saquon that he wasn't worth the money.  He signs with Philly and goes off.  He made his point.  Now he's primed to go back to just being great and not the all world game wrecker he was last season.

Id say part of the problem in New york was that terrible line.    what had me sold is there are not a lot of RB who are good enough to put up above average numbers behind a bad line.   and Sequon was doing it.    for me that was what made the move to philly so enticing.    Hes NEVER been able to play behind a line this good in his pro career.   it seemed obvious that he would perform so long as he remained healthy.

[Maximum Overkill 2,091]

Everything people are saying about Barkley is exactly the same things they were saying a year ago today. 

The new OC says he we be featured prominently in the passing game. Great player, great offense, guaranteed touches, what's not to love?? He's a League Winner. 

[weepaws 3,220]

I don’t think people are saying the same thing about him like they did last season, last season they where questioning if he can stay healthy and how is he goi to fit I’m with rd stealing machine Hurts, this season thy are asking is he worthy of the very first pick, difference. 

He’s my rb1, and my first pick in both my non and ppr 14 team leagues, if he available when I pick, don’t know what position I hold yet.  

[polecatt 479]

If I had the 1st pick overall, it would be between Saquon, J Jefferson, and J Chase...

Outside of the ACL tear, Saquon really has gotten a bit of a bad rep for his injuries. He's played at least 13 games in every season otherwise. 

He's 28, should be in the prime of his career. I don't think there's any more chance he hits the wall this season than most any other veteran RB

[TBayXXXVII 2,571]

1 hour ago, polecatt said:

If I had the 1st pick overall, it would be between Saquon, J Jefferson, and J Chase...

Outside of the ACL tear, Saquon really has gotten a bit of a bad rep for his injuries. He's played at least 13 games in every season otherwise. 

He's 28, should be in the prime of his career. I don't think there's any more chance he hits the wall this season than most any other veteran RB

For me, it's not that he's going to hit a wall, it's the 482 touches last year and the trend that is tied to that workload. 

[Maximum Overkill 2,091]

Just now, TBayXXXVII said:

that he's going to hit a wall

Define hitting a wall, RB10?? Barkley is a freak. He's built like a tank. 

Those touches don't worry me, but there will be natural regression regardless. He had possibly the best season that any RB has ever had. 

[weepaws 3,220]

4 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

For me, it's not that he's going to hit a wall, it's the 482 touches last year and the trend that is tied to that workload. 

That trend is hitting the wall.  

[weepaws 3,220]

Just now, Maximum Overkill said:

Define hitting a wall, RB10?? Barkley is a freak. He's built like a tank. 

Those touches don't worry me, but there will be natural regression regardless. He had possibly the best season that any RB has ever had. 

It does bother me when it comes to some Rbs like Jacobs, but it doesn’t bother me with Barkley, I don’t see him hitting the wall or what ever Tb might call it.  

[Maximum Overkill 2,091]

Just now, weepaws said:

I don’t see him hitting the wall or what ever Tb might call it.  

Barkley takes care of himself probably better than anyone in the NFL. He's the last person id worry about hitting a wall. He just turned 28, he's not 32 

[TBayXXXVII 2,571]

6 minutes ago, weepaws said:

That trend is hitting the wall.  

You and I apparently have different definitions of "hitting the wall".  I see it as age related, you apparently think it's workload. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,571]

3 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

Barkley takes care of himself probably better than anyone in the NFL. He's the last person id worry about hitting a wall. He just turned 28, he's not 32 

Yup.

[TBayXXXVII 2,571]

8 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

Define hitting a wall, RB10?? Barkley is a freak. He's built like a tank. 

Those touches don't worry me, but there will be natural regression regardless. He had possibly the best season that any RB has ever had. 

I didn't say he was going to hit a wall.  History shows that guys with that many touches, usually get hurt the next year.  It happened to McCaffery and Henry.

[Maximum Overkill 2,091]

1 minute ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I didn't say he was going to hit a wall.  History shows that guys with that many touches, usually get hurt the next year.  It happened to McCaffery and Henry.

Wasn't Henry the RB2 overall last season? 

[Showboat 256]

17 hours ago, Ray_T said:

the weird thing about Sequon is.... they never even fully utilized his abilities as a pass catcher last year.    he has performed at a higher level in that respect in the past.     and those are easier miles because you are catching the ball and getting hit by a DB or a LB and not a 350 Lb D lineman.

To be fair, last season he often wasn't getting touched until hitting the third level (and sometimes not even then ).

[TBayXXXVII 2,571]

Just now, Maximum Overkill said:

Wasn't Henry the RB2 overall last season? 

Did he have 400 touches the prior year?

[Maximum Overkill 2,091]

Just now, Showboat said:

To be fair, last season he often wasn't getting touched until hitting the third level (and sometimes not even then ).

True, and that's probably not going to change this season either 

[Maximum Overkill 2,091]

Just now, TBayXXXVII said:

Did he have 400 touches the prior year?

You just said he hit a wall. 

[weepaws 3,220]

8 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

You and I apparently have different definitions of "hitting the wall".  I see it as age related, you apparently think it's workload. 

It’s both related 

[weepaws 3,220]

4 minutes ago, Showboat said:

To be fair, last season he often wasn't getting touched until hitting the third level (and sometimes not even then ).

Bonus 

[weepaws 3,220]

4 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

Wasn't Henry the RB2 overall last season? 

Henry isn’t human lol.  That guy is amazing 

[Maximum Overkill 2,091]

And CMC didn't hit a wall. He got plagued by injuries, severe injuries. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,571]

7 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

You just said he hit a wall. 

No, I said "it's not that he's going to hit a wall.  History shows that guys with that many touches, usually get hurt the next year."

[TBayXXXVII 2,571]

3 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

And CMC didn't hit a wall. He got plagued by injuries, severe injuries. 

The first one came after tallying over 400 touches in 2019.