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is Quentin Johnston WW fools gold?

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Had a great game and is one most every WW list i've seen.  However, he's #3 in the pecking order and they are unlikely to keep repeating the pass heavy game plan.

 

what say you?

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Agreed with the poster above 

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There's no way that man can catch that many passes again. Targets? Sure. But (at least last season and this preseason) he consistently had some of the worst drops I've ever seen.

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3 hours ago, Skinny_Bastard said:

Fools gold.  They won't pass that many times.  Week 1 is an outlier, not the norm. 

maybe.  given the coach .... probably.

at the same time if the run game goes like it did against KC I could see a pivot to a more pass oriented game.

you know the saying.... go with what works.   Right now the pass game is working.  run game not so much.    

That said... KC has a real good run D.   so I wouldnt jump on that bandwagon just yet.    but if we have a week 2 where the run game still isnt going, then it may be time to think about this option.

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I spoke with someone who analyzed the Chargers.   apparently Quentin was playing in all 2 WR sets and Keenan Allen in all 3 WR sets.

though with Keenans production I figure its only a matter of time til he learns enough of the playbook to get a bigger role.

Keenan Allan joined the team about halfway through Pre season, so likely still learning parts of the playbook.   I know he had some of the plays from his previous tenure.   He was traded not too long after Harbaugh came aboard.    so I dont know that he retained much from that time.

but he clearly still has a connection with Herbert.   They clicked like he was never away.

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He will have a better season then mc conked-out

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On 9/9/2025 at 10:29 AM, cavern said:

Had a great game and is one most every WW list i've seen.  However, he's #3 in the pecking order and they are unlikely to keep repeating the pass heavy game plan.

 

what say you?

Depends on what you mean by "Fool's Gold".  I don't think anyone expects 5 for 80 and 2 every week, right?  When we look at Johnston's short career, we have Y1 where he had 67 targets, 38 rec, for 431 yards with 2 TD's.  We saw that production increase in Y2 up to 91, 55, 711, & 8.  Is there not a reasonable chance that with a possible upgrade in the backfield that the passing game can be even bigger?

So, we all know he's not going to be a WR1, right?  I think the expectation by people is that he's probably a strong WR3 that could produce WR2 numbers occasionally and once in a while, have a WR1 game.  Is that "Fool's Gold"?  Or do you think people are going to expect WR2 production more often?

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8 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Depends on what you mean by "Fool's Gold".  I don't think anyone expects 5 for 80 and 2 every week, right?  When we look at Johnston's short career, we have Y1 where he had 67 targets, 38 rec, for 431 yards with 2 TD's.  We saw that production increase in Y2 up to 91, 55, 711, & 8.  Is there not a reasonable chance that with a possible upgrade in the backfield that the passing game can be even bigger?

So, we all know he's not going to be a WR1, right?  I think the expectation by people is that he's probably a strong WR3 that could produce WR2 numbers occasionally and once in a while, have a WR1 game.  Is that "Fool's Gold"?  Or do you think people are going to expect WR2 production more often?

you are not wrong.  but there are also some who are thinking WR1/2which I dont think is likely a reasonable expectation.

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On 9/9/2025 at 12:35 PM, Skinny_Bastard said:

Fools gold.  They won't pass that many times.  Week 1 is an outlier, not the norm. 

This argument I don't understand.  Why won't they pass that many times?  Herbert has thrown at least 30 passes in 69 of his 80 career starts.  In 3 of that other 11, he left the game early.  He's thrown 34 or more in 53 of his 80 starts.  For his career, he's averaging 37 attempts per game.

Is your argument that because last year with Harbaugh, they averaged 29.6 attempts per game last year, that's the new norm?

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8 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

you are not wrong.  but there are also some who are thinking WR1/2which I dont think is likely a reasonable expectation.

Those are the people then, who are buying Fool's Gold.  That doesn't mean, however, that Johnston himself is Fool's Gold.  I think he's a solid WR3 who could put up 15 to 20 point games, but you should expect 11 to 13 the majority of the time.

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19 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Those are the people then, who are buying Fool's Gold.  That doesn't mean, however, that Johnston himself is Fool's Gold.  I think he's a solid WR3 who could put up 15 to 20 point games, but you should expect 11 to 13 the majority of the time.

like you I see a WR3/flex.  and he will have his ups and downs.   charger also wont throw the ball as much as they did last game.   not often anyways.....

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45 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Depends on what you mean by "Fool's Gold".  I don't think anyone expects 5 for 80 and 2 every week, right?  When we look at Johnston's short career, we have Y1 where he had 67 targets, 38 rec, for 431 yards with 2 TD's.  We saw that production increase in Y2 up to 91, 55, 711, & 8.  Is there not a reasonable chance that with a possible upgrade in the backfield that the passing game can be even bigger?

So, we all know he's not going to be a WR1, right?  I think the expectation by people is that he's probably a strong WR3 that could produce WR2 numbers occasionally and once in a while, have a WR1 game.  Is that "Fool's Gold"?  Or do you think people are going to expect WR2 production more often?

well, i had WW #2 this week.  i went for a different player with my pick anyways but would not have gotten Johnston anyways since #1 took him.  I wouldn't expect more than #3 wr.  I guess my thinking is more along the lines of "why would he be a legit #3 fantasy wr when he is only the 3rd option on his own team?"  TBH the talk elsewhere about his actually being the #2 option on his team might be what proves my gut on this wrong

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20 minutes ago, cavern said:

well, i had WW #2 this week.  i went for a different player with my pick anyways but would not have gotten Johnston anyways since #1 took him.  I wouldn't expect more than #3 wr.  I guess my thinking is more along the lines of "why would he be a legit #3 fantasy wr when he is only the 3rd option on his own team?"  TBH the talk elsewhere about his actually being the #2 option on his team might be what proves my gut on this wrong

its murky to be honest.   in week 1 he played in all 2 WR sets and Keenan Allen played in all 3 WR sets.

but that to some degree would be expected as keenan Allen joined the team reasonably late in the pre season and may not know all of the playbook yet.

but more importantly the trust between Him and Herbert that existed before he was traded to Chicago is clearly still there.    So I do think as he gets more familiar with the playbook he will take over that role.   the fact hes getting more targets already doesnt necessarily bode well for him.

but the numbers dont lie, right now hes playing more snaps than Keenan Allen and Allen is out producing him.   This situation wont last long if Allen continues to outproduce him he will get a bigger role.

the best case scenario for Quentin is an injury for one of the other WR on the team or the scenario where all 3 WR get an even split of targets and all produce WR2/3/flex numbers each week.

it could happen but most likely only if the run game doesnt perform.

bottom line: Keenan Allen can still play at a high level.   the biggest issue with him is he does get hurt a fair bit over his career.  so its possible he plays a half year, gets hurt and then it becomes Quentin time.

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41 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

like you I see a WR3/flex.  and he will have his ups and downs.   charger also wont throw the ball as much as they did last game.   not often anyways.....

Like I said to Skinny_Bastard, I'm not seeing that argument.

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2 hours ago, cavern said:

well, i had WW #2 this week.  i went for a different player with my pick anyways but would not have gotten Johnston anyways since #1 took him.  I wouldn't expect more than #3 wr.  I guess my thinking is more along the lines of "why would he be a legit #3 fantasy wr when he is only the 3rd option on his own team?"  TBH the talk elsewhere about his actually being the #2 option on his team might be what proves my gut on this wrong

To me, the Chargers are akin to the the 2021 Bucs in the sense of, people said "I'm not taking Evans, Godwin, or Brown because there are too many mouths to feed."  Part of their argument was also the existence of Gronk, Otton, and OJ Howard.  Tampa threw the ball 730 times that year, which is what made their argument invalid.  There weren't too many mouth's to feed because there was enough to go around.  Are the Chargers going to throw the ball 730 times?  No, but 580 is.  You know what 580 attempts averages out to 😉?  The Chargers also don't have 3 TE's that they could target 5 to 7+ times nor 2 RB's that they could target 5+ times.  They have 3 WR's and 1 RB... that's it.  For the record, Herbert is averaging 629 attempts per 17-game season.  That's 37 per game.

My point is that I don't think Johnston is viewed by the Chargers as the 3rd option, but one of three options... like Tampa in 2021.  Now, the problem in 2021 for the Bucs was that both Godwin and Brown got hurt.  But, if you look at weeks 1 through 6 where Evans, Godwin, and Brown played together in 5 of them, their weekly totals were:

Evans: 5.4, 24.5, 14.5, 29.3, 4.7
Godwin: 23.5, 16.2, 8.5, 14.0, 9.3
Brown: 23.7, 2.7*, 13.3, 31.4, 24.3

* Injury - left game early

There were 2 WR1's in 3 of those 5 games.  In another week, there were 2 WR2's.  Is it going to work out every week?  No, but I think the Chargers throw the ball an average of a minimum of 30 times a game.  I think all 3 of their WR's can get an average of (at worst), 7 per game.  Herbert completes 67% of his passes.  Based on career averages, a typical game might be:

Allen, 8 targets - 5.36 receptions for 65 yards and .4 TD's  His average game could be 14.26 points.
McConkey, 9 targets - 6 receptions for 72 yards and .5 TD's.  His average game could be 16.2 points.
Johnston, 7 targets - 4.69 receptions for 70 yards and .6 TD's.  His average game could be 15.29 points.

With that, I think McConkey will have be more consistent, Allen to have the highest floor - yet lowest ceiling, and Johnston be the most volatile.

 

As Ray pointed out, if people are expecting WR1 numbers more often than not and some WR2's, then they are buying Fool's Gold.  If you're looking for WR3/flex production with the occasional big game, then you're buying what he's likely to produce.

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2 hours ago, Ray_T said:

you are not wrong.  but there are also some who are thinking WR1/2which I dont think is likely a reasonable expectation.

Agreed. 

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1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

To me, the Chargers are akin to the the 2021 Bucs in the sense of, people said "I'm not taking Evans, Godwin, or Brown because there are too many mouths to feed."  Part of their argument was also the existence of Gronk, Otton, and OJ Howard.  Tampa threw the ball 730 times that year, which is what made their argument invalid.  There weren't too many mouth's to feed because there was enough to go around.  Are the Chargers going to throw the ball 730 times?  No, but 580 is.  You know what 580 attempts averages out to 😉?  The Chargers also don't have 3 TE's that they could target 5 to 7+ times nor 2 RB's that they could target 5+ times.  They have 3 WR's and 1 RB... that's it.  For the record, Herbert is averaging 629 attempts per 17-game season.  That's 37 per game.

My point is that I don't think Johnston is viewed by the Chargers as the 3rd option, but one of three options... like Tampa in 2021.  Now, the problem in 2021 for the Bucs was that both Godwin and Brown got hurt.  But, if you look at weeks 1 through 6 where Evans, Godwin, and Brown played together in 5 of them, their weekly totals were:

Evans: 5.4, 24.5, 14.5, 29.3, 4.7
Godwin: 23.5, 16.2, 8.5, 14.0, 9.3
Brown: 23.7, 2.7*, 13.3, 31.4, 24.3

* Injury - left game early

There were 2 WR1's in 3 of those 5 games.  In another week, there were 2 WR2's.  Is it going to work out every week?  No, but I think the Chargers throw the ball an average of a minimum of 30 times a game.  I think all 3 of their WR's can get an average of (at worst), 7 per game.  Herbert completes 67% of his passes.  Based on career averages, a typical game might be:

Allen, 8 targets - 5.36 receptions for 65 yards and .4 TD's  His average game could be 14.26 points.
McConkey, 9 targets - 6 receptions for 72 yards and .5 TD's.  His average game could be 16.2 points.
Johnston, 7 targets - 4.69 receptions for 70 yards and .6 TD's.  His average game could be 15.29 points.

With that, I think McConkey will have be more consistent, Allen to have the highest floor - yet lowest ceiling, and Johnston be the most volatile.

 

As Ray pointed out, if people are expecting WR1 numbers more often than not and some WR2's, then they are buying Fool's Gold.  If you're looking for WR3/flex production with the occasional big game, then you're buying what he's likely to produce.

It is possible they could go pass heavy like Tampa.  and if the Run game turns out to be a dud it could happen.   but this is not the expected result.

The chargers coach has a history of getting good production out of the run game and I do think he will find a way to make that happen at least some of the time if not all of the time.

that likely means its not consistent that the third WR in this trio of good WR gets enough action to be consistently productive.   which is why hes listed as a likely WR3/flex by a lot of us.

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54 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

It is possible they could go pass heavy like Tampa.  and if the Run game turns out to be a dud it could happen.   but this is not the expected result.

The chargers coach has a history of getting good production out of the run game and I do think he will find a way to make that happen at least some of the time if not all of the time.

that likely means its not consistent that the third WR in this trio of good WR gets enough action to be consistently productive.   which is why hes listed as a likely WR3/flex by a lot of us.

I don't think they will be Tampa pass heavy, but in relation to targets, I think they will.  Tampa, legitimately had 8 targets... Evans, Godwin, Brown, Gronk, Howard, Otton, Fournette, and Jone.  The Chargers have 6 with only McConkey, Allen, Johnson, Dissly, Conklin, and Hampton, so they don't think the volume to yield the same results.   Here, I'll quantify my point:

Last year, LA Chargers target share...

Ladd McConkey    22.81%
Quentin Johnston    18.53%
Josh Palmer    13.24%
Will Dissly    13.03%
J.K. Dobbins    7.74%
Stone Smartt    3.87%
Derius Davis    3.46%
Simi Fehoko    3.26%
Hayden Hurst    2.65%
Jalen Reagor    2.44%
DJ Chark    2.04%
Kimani Vidal    1.83%
Tucker Fisk    1.63%
Gus Edwards    1.02%
Scott Matlock    1.02%
Eric Tomlinson    0.81%
Hassan Haskins    0.61%
 

Of this group, 3 of the top 6 are gone and replaced with Keenan Allen, Tyler Conklin, Omarion Hampton are the additions.  We're looking about about 25% of the target share is getting redistributed.  I also think that McConkey will see a drop.  With that, I can see Allen will likely get the bulk of that remainder and Hampton getting most of the rest.  I can see it as approximately McConkey getting 23%, Allen getting 19%, Johnston with 18% and Hampton getting 8%. If everyone else replicates their prior year's share, that leave's 4% for others for miscellaneous.  If we assume just 550 pass attempts for Herbert, that leaves this scenario...

Player Share Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD FP FGP
Ladd McConkey 23.25% 127 88 1232 14 9 265.2 15.60
Quentin Johnston 18.23% 100 68 1020 15 10 230 13.53
Keenan Allen 19.25% 105 73 803 11 7 195.3 11.49
Will Dissly 6.00% 33 22 176 8 1 45.6 2.68
Tyler Conklin 6.00% 33 22 154 7 1 43.4 2.55
Omarian Hampton 8.50% 46 30 195 6.5 2 61.5 3.62

With similar contributions from other players, this would result in Herbert having a 4100 yard / 31 TD season.  I think that's the floor because I think Herbert ends up closer to 600 attempts than 550.  It's also me being conservative on target share.
 

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1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I don't think they will be Tampa pass heavy, but in relation to targets, I think they will.  Tampa, legitimately had 8 targets... Evans, Godwin, Brown, Gronk, Howard, Otton, Fournette, and Jone.  The Chargers have 6 with only McConkey, Allen, Johnson, Dissly, Conklin, and Hampton, so they don't think the volume to yield the same results.   Here, I'll quantify my point:

Last year, LA Chargers target share...

Ladd McConkey    22.81%
Quentin Johnston    18.53%
Josh Palmer    13.24%
Will Dissly    13.03%
J.K. Dobbins    7.74%
Stone Smartt    3.87%
Derius Davis    3.46%
Simi Fehoko    3.26%
Hayden Hurst    2.65%
Jalen Reagor    2.44%
DJ Chark    2.04%
Kimani Vidal    1.83%
Tucker Fisk    1.63%
Gus Edwards    1.02%
Scott Matlock    1.02%
Eric Tomlinson    0.81%
Hassan Haskins    0.61%
 

Of this group, 3 of the top 6 are gone and replaced with Keenan Allen, Tyler Conklin, Omarion Hampton are the additions.  We're looking about about 25% of the target share is getting redistributed.  I also think that McConkey will see a drop.  With that, I can see Allen will likely get the bulk of that remainder and Hampton getting most of the rest.  I can see it as approximately McConkey getting 23%, Allen getting 19%, Johnston with 18% and Hampton getting 8%. If everyone else replicates their prior year's share, that leave's 4% for others for miscellaneous.  If we assume just 550 pass attempts for Herbert, that leaves this scenario...

Player Share Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD FP FGP
Ladd McConkey 23.25% 127 88 1232 14 9 265.2 15.60
Quentin Johnston 18.23% 100 68 1020 15 10 230 13.53
Keenan Allen 19.25% 105 73 803 11 7 195.3 11.49
Will Dissly 6.00% 33 22 176 8 1 45.6 2.68
Tyler Conklin 6.00% 33 22 154 7 1 43.4 2.55
Omarian Hampton 8.50% 46 30 195 6.5 2 61.5 3.62

With similar contributions from other players, this would result in Herbert having a 4100 yard / 31 TD season.  I think that's the floor because I think Herbert ends up closer to 600 attempts than 550.  It's also me being conservative on target share.
 

nice work.   We shall see how this plays out.      if what you say is correct Quentin is the better pickup than Allen is.    I had it figured that Keenan Allen was the better pickup.

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42 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

nice work.   We shall see how this plays out.      if what you say is correct Quentin is the better pickup than Allen is.    I had it figured that Keenan Allen was the better pickup.

I don't know that he is "better", even though the numbers can show that.  Like you, I think Johnston is a WR3/Flex play, but I think he'll be volatile.  One week 25, the next 9.  The next week 15, then next 7.  Over 4 weeks, he's at about 56 points and you look and say, "huh, 14 fpg... not bad for WR 30".  The thing is, 2 of those were pretty bad.  You may not be happy with the 9 or 7 point week.  Keenan Allen, I think will be a guy that gets 11, 12, 10, 13, 10, 12, etc.  It's a matter of... do you want consistency or ceiling (with the risk)?

My problem when I do projections like this, is that I usually give too much credit to health and I end up with 20 guys who are WR1's, 20 who are 2's, and 20 who are 3's. LOL  I just pick guys based on ADP and trust that they'd hit that projection.  :dunno:

 

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1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I don't know that he is "better", even though the numbers can show that.  Like you, I think Johnston is a WR3/Flex play, but I think he'll be volatile.  One week 25, the next 9.  The next week 15, then next 7.  Over 4 weeks, he's at about 56 points and you look and say, "huh, 14 fpg... not bad for WR 30".  The thing is, 2 of those were pretty bad.  You may not be happy with the 9 or 7 point week.  Keenan Allen, I think will be a guy that gets 11, 12, 10, 13, 10, 12, etc.  It's a matter of... do you want consistency or ceiling (with the risk)?

My problem when I do projections like this, is that I usually give too much credit to health and I end up with 20 guys who are WR1's, 20 who are 2's, and 20 who are 3's. LOL  I just pick guys based on ADP and trust that they'd hit that projection.  :dunno:

 

well, its better than what most people do  on here.   they post predictions and then dont tell you  how they got to that number.    I like this because then I can tweak it based on whatever assumptions I want to make or discount it if I dont like the way you did something.   either way its a better methodology.   I will occasionally post the details of how I got to some of my projections for this very reason.   if my numbers are drastically different from what other people are predicting you can at least see where my projections actually came from and if you dont like the assumptions I have made, you can tweak it for your own use.

to that end, I'll say good job.

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